11月CPI报告的解读因美国劳工统计局（BLS）此前已备受争议的数据采集问题而变得更加复杂。由于部分调 查项目的数据无法补采，BLS并未发布10月的若干关键CPI指数。因此，BLS只能通过模型假设下的判断弥补 10月的数据缺口。我们认为，这类调整对10月和11月的通胀数据均存在一定下行偏差，因此市场和美联储能够 从该报告中提取的有效信息有限。在上述统计失真因素的影响下，市场和美联储官员更可能选择对11月偏鸽的 通胀信号保持审慎忽略的态度，转而等待12月的CPI数据，以获得更完整、统计意义上更可靠的通胀图景。 一、商品：见顶回落 11月美国CPI通胀数据远低于市场预期。CPI同比增速降至2.7%（市场预期3.1%），核心CPI同比增长2.6%（市 场预期3.0%），为2021年3月以来的最低水平。 图1：11月美国CPI通胀意外回落至2.7% 资 料 来 源 ： M A C R O B O N D 、 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 美国商品通胀见顶回落。 4-9月商品CPI通胀上行2.1pct至1.9%，10-11月回落0.1pct至1.8%。环比增速亦大幅放 缓，10-11月合计 ...

12月19日 资讯分享 周四，因美国11月CPI通胀低于预期，美元指数在美盘前急速跳水，现货黄金在美盘时段一度冲上4370 美元，但随后回吐日内全部涨幅并转跌，最终收跌0.14%，报4332.31美元/盎司；现货白银震荡下行， 最终收跌1.14%，报65.44美元/盎司。 因投资者评估美国进一步制裁俄罗斯的可能性，以及委内瑞拉油轮被封锁带来的供应风险，原油仍陷宽 幅区间内。WTI原油最终收跌1.48%，报55.8美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.48%，报59.89美元/桶。 美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得2.6%，为 2021年3月以来新低。美国联邦基金利率显示，美联储明年1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储仍有很大降息空间。 美联储古尔斯比：11月通胀数据良好，对前置降息感到不安。终端利率将远低于当前水平。 欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，符合市场预期，为连续第四次会议按兵不动。欧洲央行表 示，降息周期很可能已经结束。 英国央行将基准利率从4.00%下调至3.75%，符合市场预期。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - US CPI inflation in September was comprehensively lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of another rate cut in December rose to 96% [1][6]. - The current data dispelled concerns about "major stagflation" caused by tariffs. The increase in tariffs did not lead to a rise in the CPI growth rate, suggesting that tariffs are mainly borne by exporters or importers [5]. - The current CPI data may be crucial for the FOMC meeting on December 10th. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, and major commodity categories are expected to rise [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall CPI Data - In September, the year - on - year CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 2.9%); the month - on - month CPI was 0.3% (expected 0.4%, previous value 0.4%). The year - on - year core CPI was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.1%); the month - on - month core CPI was 0.2% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.3%) [1]. 2. Sub - item Analysis Food and Energy - Food inflation cooled down, with the food item's month - on - month rate at 0.2% (previous value 0.5%) and year - on - year rate at 3.1% (previous value 3.2%). Energy commodity prices rose significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 3.8% (previous value 1.7%), and energy services' month - on - month rate dropped to - 0.7% (previous value - 0.2%). The overall energy item's month - on - month rate was 1.5%, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [2]. Core Goods - Driven by new and used cars, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core goods rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 1.5%, the same as the previous value. The reasons for the slowdown were the significant cooling of used car and auto parts inflation and the cooling of information technology products. However, furniture, clothing, leisure goods, and medical care products contributed more to inflation [3]. Core Services - Driven by housing and transportation services, inflation slowed down. The month - on - month core services rate was 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and the year - on - year rate was 3.5% (previous value 3.6%). The month - on - month growth rate of the largest - weighted housing item decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%, and transportation services inflation cooled down in September [4]. 3. Impact on the Market and Future Outlook - The comprehensively lower - than - expected CPI strengthened the expectation of two more interest rate cuts within the year. The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Fed FOMC meeting is almost certain, and the probability of another cut in December rose to 96% [6]. - After the data release, US stock index futures rose, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar declined. In the future, US Treasury yields will continue to decline, the US dollar may gradually turn downward, major commodity categories are expected to rise, and precious metals that have fallen recently are also expected to rebound. The overseas interest rate cut cycle is beneficial for funds to flow into emerging markets [6][7].

Core Insights - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates an increase in overall inflation for August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.3% [1] - Year-over-year, the CPI recorded a 2.9% increase, aligning with expectations and accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to July [1] Detailed Summary - The 0.4% month-over-month increase is the largest since February of this year and is double the increase seen in July, which was 0.2% [2] - In terms of specific categories, food prices rose by 0.5% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year, while energy prices increased by 0.7% month-over-month and 0.2% year-over-year [3] - Excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with the previous month's increases and market expectations [4]