专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月18日，ATFX汇评：今日20：00，英国央行将公布12月利率决议结果，主流预期认为将降息25基 点，基准利率从4%下降至3.75%。今年9月和10月的利率决议，英国央行均选择按兵不动。虽然市场预 期英国央行会在本周降息，但考虑到政策惯性，本周利率决议仍有可能继续按兵不动。降息将冲击英镑 币值，而超预期的结果将对英镑币值形成显著提振。 ▲ATFX图 英国央行降息的主要压力来自于劳动力市场。英国央行政策制定者梅根格林本月初表示："需要看到劳 动力市场进一步恶化（才能支持降息）"。自2024年8月份以来，英国的失业率不断升高，从4%一路攀 升至今年10月份的5.1%。上一次英国出现就业率在5%以上，还是在2021年5月份，也就是疫情期间。当 前的失业率数据与疫情期间持平，足见英国的就业市场已经进入非常糟糕的局面。 据英国劳动力市场统计主管分析，就业疲软的原因是"私营部门就业增长乏力，而裁员活动显著增 加。"与美国移民政策和AI替代导致的就业减少不同，英国的就业市场危机更像是宏观经济衰退导致的 系统性问题。美国正在依靠宽松货币政策提振就业市场，英国大概率也将遵循着货币政策路径进行宏 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The unexpected lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for August and ongoing weak employment figures have strengthened market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Major U.S. stock indices collectively rose last week, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.95%, the S&P 500 rising by 1.59%, and the Nasdaq up by 2.03% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices increased last week due to geopolitical tensions, including Israel's attack on Hamas and Russian drones entering Polish airspace, raising concerns about potential supply risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe [2] - New York oil prices rose by 1.33%, while Brent crude prices increased by 2.27% [2] Group 3: Gold Market Performance - International gold prices saw a cumulative increase of 0.91% last week, supported by ongoing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with three trading days reaching historical closing highs [3] Group 4: Central Bank Decisions - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, announce their latest interest rate decisions, with diverging monetary policy directions expected [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, influenced by signs of a weak labor market and inflation rebound [4] - The Bank of England faces a dilemma between maintaining rates to observe inflation trends or cutting rates to stimulate the economy, with expectations leaning towards keeping rates unchanged [4] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current interest rate, but there remains a possibility of a rate hike later this year, depending on inflation outlook statements from the central bank [5]

Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing a complex situation due to multiple factors, including profit-taking leading to a slight decline in spot gold prices, heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and geopolitical tensions arising from tariff measures by the Trump administration against countries like India and Switzerland [1] - As of the early trading session on August 7, spot gold is trading around the 3370 level, with market participants awaiting key economic indicators such as initial jobless claims in the U.S., the Bank of England's interest rate decision, and comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] Gold Price Trends - In the previous trading day, gold prices rose to $3385.3 during the Asian session before declining to a low of $3358.1, where a rebound occurred. The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, with prices remaining above the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend [3] - The hourly chart indicates that gold prices fell to $3364 before rising again, currently trading around $3380. The 5-day moving average is trending upwards, and both KDJ and MACD indicators suggest a bullish momentum [3] Trading Recommendations - A buy recommendation is suggested for gold around the $3367-$3370 range, with a stop loss at $3362 and a take profit target of $3385-$3390 [5] - A sell recommendation is advised for gold around the $3393-$3396 range, with a stop loss at $3401 and a take profit target of $3380 [5]