钛媒体App 10月21日消息，罗森伯格研究公司负责人David Rosenberg表示，没有任何因素会阻止加拿大 央行再次降息。罗森伯格称，几项关键指标凸显了加拿大经济的疲软：销售预期指标自2023年第二季度 以来首次转为负值；资本支出意向疲软；裁员计划则处于过去五年区间的高端。对于通胀上行风险的担 忧应当消除，因为企业的薪资增长预期已从疫情后2022年5.8%的峰值减半至3%，为四年来最低水平。 （广角观察） ...

上周，意外低于预期的美国8月通胀数据以及持续疲软的就业数据，巩固了市场对于美联储即将开启降 息的预期，叠加芯片股和AI概念股显著上涨，推动美国三大股指上周集体上涨。其中，道指累计上涨 0.95%，标普500指数上涨1.59%，纳指上涨2.03%。 英国央行将于本周四公布利率决议。由于近期的月度通胀数据意外反弹至18个月来最高水平，而英国经 济在7月又陷入停滞，英国央行正面临是"按兵不动"来观察通胀走势，还是降息提振经济的两难境地。 由于内部意见存在明显分歧，市场预计，英国央行本次大概率会维持利率不变。 上周国际油价上涨 日本方面，外界预计日本政坛的不确定性，可能导致财政和货币政策延续现状，日本央行本次议息会议 很可能会维持利率不变，不过今年年内仍有加息的可能性。就本次会议而言，投资者需要留意的是，日 本央行对通胀前景的展望。如果央行官员释放出"鹰派"言论，可能推升日元对美元汇率，引发套利交易 回撤，进而导致汇市和股市出现显著波动。 原油期货方面，上周，以色列在卡塔尔首都多哈发动针对哈马斯的突袭，以及俄罗斯无人机进入波兰领 空等事件，一度引发市场对中东和东欧潜在供应风险的担忧，助推国际油价上涨。上周，纽约油价累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, highlighting the impact of inflation data on the Canadian central bank's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The overall inflation rate in Canada decreased from 1.9% to 1.7% in July [1] - The inflation rate excluding indirect taxes also fell from 2.5% to 2.2% [1] - Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remains above 3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Central Bank Predictions - Desjardins Group maintains its prediction for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada next month, influenced by the "relatively mild" inflation data [1] - Economist Royce Mendes noted that price increases related to tariffs may have begun earlier than the central bank anticipated [1] Group 3: Currency Trends - The USD/CAD exchange rate was reported at 1.3733, with a slight decline of 0.01% from the opening price of 1.3737 [1] - The Bollinger Bands indicate resistance at the upper band of 1.3766 and support at the lower band of 1.3739, with the latest price fluctuating around 1.3760 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to weak CPI data, which has increased expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1] Economic Data Impact - The USD/CAD exchange rate has rebounded, currently reported at 1.3842, with a gain of 0.11% [1] - Weak Canadian CPI data has significantly impacted the Canadian dollar's performance, reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut [1] - The upcoming second-quarter GDP data will be closely watched, as its performance will coincide with the U.S. PCE core inflation data [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Investors currently estimate a 33% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the meeting on September 17 [1] - By December, the likelihood of a rate cut is expected to rise to 90% [1] - A weak performance in the second-quarter GDP data could further solidify the rationale for another rate cut by the Bank of Canada before the end of the year, potentially leading to additional selling pressure on the Canadian dollar [1]

分析师：加拿大通胀"高烧"难退 降息还得再等等 金十数据7月15日讯，宏利投资管理公司的Dominique Lapointe表示，加拿大的通胀仍居高不下，因此降 息还得再等等。他指出，尽管加拿大央行本可合理地忽略反制性关税引发的暂时性价格上涨，但鉴于 （关税成本）转嫁的全面程度存在不确定性，且可能存在其他通胀因素，央行一直不愿这么做。 Lapointe称，与此同时，加拿大尚未遭遇会迫使央行转向更宽松立场的衰退压力。不过，Lapointe认 为，失业率持续上升、产出缺口扩大，以及关税对通胀的暂时性影响愈发明晰，最终会让央行在本轮周 期中再实施两次降息。 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，凯投宏观分析师Thomas Ryan表示，加拿大6月通胀报告表明，该国经济中的成本 压力持续存在，这可能是由加元走弱以及针对美国进口商品的报复性关税影响所致。他指出，6月核心 消费者价格指数的三个月年化增长率达到3.5%，创下六个月来的新高。Ryan对客户表示："因此，加拿 大央行7月降息的大门现已被彻底关上。" 凯投宏观：加拿大央行7月降息的大门现已被彻底关上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Montreal's chief economist Doug Porter asserts that there is no justification for the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates in July due to persistent core inflation despite economic growth being below potential [1] Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada remained at 3% in June, which is at the upper limit of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range [1] - The increase in housing costs is contributing to upward pressure on core inflation [1] Price Changes - The retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports are partially responsible for the high core inflation [1] - In June, the price of durable goods accelerated to a 2.7% increase from 2% in May [1] - The automotive prices rose by 4.1%, furniture prices increased by 3.3%, and clothing and footwear prices went up by 2% [1]

金十数据7月15日讯，Desjardins Group经济学家Royce Mendes表示，加拿大CPI报告将于今晚20:30公 布，交易员将借此确定加拿大央行本月晚些时候降息的可能性。此前，加拿大就业数据表现强劲，净新 增就业岗位增加了8.31万个，主要失业率从7%降至6.9%。25岁至54岁的黄金工作年龄人群的失业率下 降速度更快，从6%降至5.8%。不过，Mendes表示，失业率仍处于高位，对加拿大央行而言不是一个影 响政策决定的"摇摆因素"。周二的通胀数据将成为焦点。 机构：加拿大CPI将确定央行本月晚些时候降息的可能性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar has appreciated by 3.5% against the US dollar in the second quarter, driven by rising oil prices and negative sentiment towards the US dollar, despite domestic economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Domestic demand in Canada is weak, and the unemployment rate is rising, which casts a shadow over the outlook for the Canadian dollar [1] - The Canadian bank anticipates that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in July, contrary to current expectations, which may weaken the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Political and Market Dynamics - The recent throne speech in Ottawa marks a departure from the practices of the Trudeau era, making Canada more attractive for private capital [1] - The Canadian bank projects that the USD/CAD exchange rate will peak at 1.38 before trending towards 1.34 [1]