·德商银行：俄乌问题未能有效解决卢布面临贬值 ·澳新银行：鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议的表态可能更为谨慎 ·Tickmill Group：杰克逊霍尔年会可能面临来自特朗普和贝森特的杂音 ·中信证券：美股"降息交易"欲行又止 ·Convera：若英国通胀数据高于预期镑美或突破关键阻力 ·穆迪：国内经济疲弱新西兰联储预计本周将降息 【机构分析】 ·杰克逊霍尔研讨会是本周的焦点。澳新银行（ANZ）经济学家Shwetha Sunilkumar表示，去年美联储主 席鲍威尔曾在会议上直言即将降息的理由，但今年鲍威尔可能不会如此直言不讳。Sunilkumar补充说， 鲍威尔可能会表示今年实施进一步宽松政策的可能性较大，但不会承诺具体时间，尤其是在上周公布的 7月服务业和生产者物价数据强于预期后，通胀担忧有所加剧。她还指出，部分地区联储官员对于未来 宽松的时间表已变得更加谨慎。该行的基准预期仍然认为，美联储将在9月会议上降息。 ·Tickmill Group市场策略师Patrick Munnelly表示，即将于周五开幕的杰克逊霍尔研讨会预计将成为市场 的关键时刻，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的短期政策方向。不过他指出，与往常一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite higher-than-expected inflation data in the UK, the possibility of a Bank of England rate cut in August should not be ruled out [1] - UK inflation rate increased from 2.6% in March to 3.5% in April, surpassing the economists' forecast of 3.4% [1] - The rise in service sector inflation is largely attributed to one-off factors, indicating potential improvement in underlying inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The UK money market has not fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in November, suggesting uncertainty in future monetary policy [1] - LSEG data indicates a low probability of a rate cut in June, with only a 43% chance for a cut in August [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK interest rate futures indicate an expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England of approximately 35 basis points by the end of 2025, a slight decrease from the previous expectation of 36 basis points prior to the release of UK inflation data [1] Group 1 - The anticipated interest rate cut reflects market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of England [1] - The change in expected rate cut from 36 basis points to 35 basis points suggests a minor shift in market sentiment following the inflation data release [1] - The timeline for the expected rate cut is set for the end of 2025, indicating a longer-term outlook for monetary policy in the UK [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if UK inflation data exceeds expectations, the British pound may experience a temporary increase [1] Inflation Expectations - A survey of analysts indicates that the year-on-year inflation rate for April is expected to accelerate from 2.6% in March to 3.3% [1] - The increase in inflation is attributed to rising energy prices and other utility costs, along with higher employer national insurance contributions due to increased taxes [1] Market Reactions - If inflation meets general expectations, it may lead to a sense of relief among market participants [1] - A higher-than-expected inflation rate could boost the British pound, although any positive impact may be short-lived if negative growth occurs [1]