Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the Russian ruble may weaken over the next year due to the bleak prospects for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the Russian economy facing declines in exports and imports, as well as reduced oil and gas revenues [1] - The Jackson Hole symposium is highlighted as a key event, with ANZ economists suggesting that Fed Chair Powell may adopt a more cautious tone compared to last year, especially after stronger-than-expected July service and producer price data raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Tickmill Group anticipates that the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium will be crucial for market direction, although differing opinions from Trump and Bessent may add noise to the discussions [2] Group 2 - Convera strategists indicate that if UK inflation data exceeds expectations, the GBP/USD may break through the key resistance level of 1.36, driven by persistent high service sector inflation and private sector wage growth around 5% [3] - Moody's forecasts that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3% this week, citing ongoing concerns about domestic economic weakness and global growth prospects [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite higher-than-expected inflation data in the UK, the possibility of a Bank of England rate cut in August should not be ruled out [1] - UK inflation rate increased from 2.6% in March to 3.5% in April, surpassing the economists' forecast of 3.4% [1] - The rise in service sector inflation is largely attributed to one-off factors, indicating potential improvement in underlying inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The UK money market has not fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in November, suggesting uncertainty in future monetary policy [1] - LSEG data indicates a low probability of a rate cut in June, with only a 43% chance for a cut in August [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK interest rate futures indicate an expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England of approximately 35 basis points by the end of 2025, a slight decrease from the previous expectation of 36 basis points prior to the release of UK inflation data [1] Group 1 - The anticipated interest rate cut reflects market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of England [1] - The change in expected rate cut from 36 basis points to 35 basis points suggests a minor shift in market sentiment following the inflation data release [1] - The timeline for the expected rate cut is set for the end of 2025, indicating a longer-term outlook for monetary policy in the UK [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if UK inflation data exceeds expectations, the British pound may experience a temporary increase [1] Inflation Expectations - A survey of analysts indicates that the year-on-year inflation rate for April is expected to accelerate from 2.6% in March to 3.3% [1] - The increase in inflation is attributed to rising energy prices and other utility costs, along with higher employer national insurance contributions due to increased taxes [1] Market Reactions - If inflation meets general expectations, it may lead to a sense of relief among market participants [1] - A higher-than-expected inflation rate could boost the British pound, although any positive impact may be short-lived if negative growth occurs [1]