格隆汇10月8日｜摩根大通经济学家Tom Kennedy表示，新西兰商业环境疲软，意味着该国三季度国内 生产总值前景面临一定下行风险。他补充称，在此背景下，新西兰联储可能仍需采取进一步行动。 Kennedy预计，新西兰联储将在11月和明年2月两次降息，并将官方现金利率的终端利率预期从2.25%下 调至2.0%。 ...

新华财经北京9月24日电（王姝睿）尽管过去一年多实施激进降息，新西兰经济依然疲弱，即将于12月 上任的新西兰联储主席安娜·布雷曼（Anna Breman）将在艰难环境下接手央行。经济学家表示，新西兰 前景充满挑战，经济料难有强劲反弹。 （文章来源：新华财经） 在内需方面，尽管降息力度空前，但新西兰房价未见明显上涨，财富效应缺失，消费提振有限。同时， 失业率攀升，劳动力外流至澳大利亚等地寻找更佳机会。外部压力亦加剧困境，美国4月宣布的贸易政 策引发不确定性冲击，对新西兰商品加征的15%关税涉及葡萄酒、肉类及服务业，出口受挫。 新西兰联储首席经济学家康威指出，经济前景依然充满挑战，即便一年后有所改善，也难见强劲反弹。 他将困境主要归因于全球因素，尤其是美国贸易政策。 分析称，新西兰经济对此前降息的反应迟缓，需求降温预计将减轻通胀压力，使新西兰联储有可能在今 年底前进一步下调利率。布雷曼或需重新审视政策框架，寻求兼顾物价稳定与就业的平衡路径。在全球 不确定性升温的背景下，她的政策灵活性将成为关键考验。 目前新西兰金融机构普遍预期，新西兰联储需推行更深度降息以应对增长停滞挑战。新西兰ASB银行预 计，新西兰联储将在年 ...

Group 1 - The central banks are expected to maintain a cautious approach towards interest rate decisions, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to implement significant rate cuts despite political pressure [1][2] - The market anticipates a potential resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in September, but the extent of any cuts is expected to be limited to 25 basis points rather than 50 [2] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, and is expected to conclude its current easing cycle after November [3] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings indicates that Indian companies are not significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs, but sectors like pharmaceuticals may face increased pressure due to secondary effects of tariffs [4] - If the U.S. maintains higher tariffs compared to other Asian markets, it could pose moderate downside risks to India's projected economic growth rate of 6.5% for FY2026 [4] - The potential for over-supply shifts towards India due to U.S. tariffs could lead to a decrease in domestic prices for products like steel and chemicals, creating a ripple effect in the market [4]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the Russian ruble may weaken over the next year due to the bleak prospects for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the Russian economy facing declines in exports and imports, as well as reduced oil and gas revenues [1] - The Jackson Hole symposium is highlighted as a key event, with ANZ economists suggesting that Fed Chair Powell may adopt a more cautious tone compared to last year, especially after stronger-than-expected July service and producer price data raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Tickmill Group anticipates that the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium will be crucial for market direction, although differing opinions from Trump and Bessent may add noise to the discussions [2] Group 2 - Convera strategists indicate that if UK inflation data exceeds expectations, the GBP/USD may break through the key resistance level of 1.36, driven by persistent high service sector inflation and private sector wage growth around 5% [3] - Moody's forecasts that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3% this week, citing ongoing concerns about domestic economic weakness and global growth prospects [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by 3%, driven by improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that under a strong currency, sectors such as non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and brokerage stocks typically perform well [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a rebound in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) in the coming months due to the absorption of excess liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as recent domestic data has improved, alleviating some previous concerns [2] - MUFG analysts expect the Japanese yen to remain supported by the potential for further interest rate hikes later this year, despite low expectations from the market [2] - Allianz Group expresses concerns that the U.S. may lose its status as a "reliable investment destination" due to legislative changes affecting clean energy investments [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds may drop to between 1.4% and 1.5% in the coming months due to stronger demand for fixed-income assets [4] - Everbright Securities reports that China's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to gradually recover, driven by export demand [4] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the technology growth style is favored, recommending investments in sectors such as robotics and artificial intelligence [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to move away from "interest dependency" as interest rates continue to decline, suggesting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [5] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the AI computing power sector, driven by advancements in AI models [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting southward, with an increase in IPOs from quality companies in Hong Kong [7] Group 5 - CITIC Securities indicates that the valuation of the brokerage sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by favorable liquidity and financial policies [9] - Galaxy Securities observes rapid rotation in market trends, suggesting a cautious approach while focusing on structural investment opportunities [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports significant growth potential in Xinjiang's power supply and demand, with expectations for substantial increases in renewable energy generation [11]