Core Viewpoint - The weak business environment in New Zealand indicates a downward risk for the country's GDP outlook in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley economist Tom Kennedy expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to take further action in response to the economic conditions [1] - Kennedy forecasts two interest rate cuts in November and February, lowering the terminal cash rate expectation from 2.25% to 2.0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's economy remains weak despite aggressive interest rate cuts, with challenges ahead for the newly appointed Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman [1][2] Economic Performance - New Zealand's GDP contracted by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, three times the economists' forecast, and by 0.6% year-on-year, against an expectation of 0% [1][2] - Per capita economic growth shrank by 1.1% in the same quarter, indicating a significant downturn [2] Monetary Policy - Economists are calling for a further 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October meeting, as the current monetary policy has not effectively stimulated the economy [2][3] - The official cash rate has been reduced by a total of 250 basis points since mid-2024, but improvements in employment and economic activity have been limited [1][2] Housing and Consumer Demand - Despite unprecedented rate cuts, there has been no significant increase in housing prices, leading to a lack of wealth effect and limited consumer spending [2] - Rising unemployment and labor outflow to Australia for better opportunities are exacerbating the economic situation [2] External Factors - Global uncertainties, particularly from U.S. trade policies, have negatively impacted New Zealand's exports, with a 15% tariff on goods such as wine and meat [2] - The economic outlook remains challenging, with expectations of only modest improvements in the coming year [2] Future Projections - Financial institutions expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to implement deeper rate cuts, with predictions of the official cash rate dropping to 2.25% by the end of the year [3] - The economic environment is anticipated to shift towards a highly stimulative stance [3]

Group 1 - The central banks are expected to maintain a cautious approach towards interest rate decisions, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to implement significant rate cuts despite political pressure [1][2] - The market anticipates a potential resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in September, but the extent of any cuts is expected to be limited to 25 basis points rather than 50 [2] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, and is expected to conclude its current easing cycle after November [3] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings indicates that Indian companies are not significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs, but sectors like pharmaceuticals may face increased pressure due to secondary effects of tariffs [4] - If the U.S. maintains higher tariffs compared to other Asian markets, it could pose moderate downside risks to India's projected economic growth rate of 6.5% for FY2026 [4] - The potential for over-supply shifts towards India due to U.S. tariffs could lead to a decrease in domestic prices for products like steel and chemicals, creating a ripple effect in the market [4]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the Russian ruble may weaken over the next year due to the bleak prospects for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the Russian economy facing declines in exports and imports, as well as reduced oil and gas revenues [1] - The Jackson Hole symposium is highlighted as a key event, with ANZ economists suggesting that Fed Chair Powell may adopt a more cautious tone compared to last year, especially after stronger-than-expected July service and producer price data raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Tickmill Group anticipates that the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium will be crucial for market direction, although differing opinions from Trump and Bessent may add noise to the discussions [2] Group 2 - Convera strategists indicate that if UK inflation data exceeds expectations, the GBP/USD may break through the key resistance level of 1.36, driven by persistent high service sector inflation and private sector wage growth around 5% [3] - Moody's forecasts that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3% this week, citing ongoing concerns about domestic economic weakness and global growth prospects [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by 3%, driven by improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that under a strong currency, sectors such as non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and brokerage stocks typically perform well [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a rebound in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) in the coming months due to the absorption of excess liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as recent domestic data has improved, alleviating some previous concerns [2] - MUFG analysts expect the Japanese yen to remain supported by the potential for further interest rate hikes later this year, despite low expectations from the market [2] - Allianz Group expresses concerns that the U.S. may lose its status as a "reliable investment destination" due to legislative changes affecting clean energy investments [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds may drop to between 1.4% and 1.5% in the coming months due to stronger demand for fixed-income assets [4] - Everbright Securities reports that China's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to gradually recover, driven by export demand [4] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the technology growth style is favored, recommending investments in sectors such as robotics and artificial intelligence [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to move away from "interest dependency" as interest rates continue to decline, suggesting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [5] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the AI computing power sector, driven by advancements in AI models [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting southward, with an increase in IPOs from quality companies in Hong Kong [7] Group 5 - CITIC Securities indicates that the valuation of the brokerage sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by favorable liquidity and financial policies [9] - Galaxy Securities observes rapid rotation in market trends, suggesting a cautious approach while focusing on structural investment opportunities [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports significant growth potential in Xinjiang's power supply and demand, with expectations for substantial increases in renewable energy generation [11]