Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is expected to be limited [16] Summary by Directory Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy Spot Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late Fuji apple production areas remains light. Traders' enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers has decreased, mainly packaging pre - ordered and self - stored goods. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of ordinary and lower - quality apples from fruit farmers have loosened. In the sales areas, the sales are still slow, with the sales volume lower than the same period last year. Oranges and other citrus fruits are competing with apples [6] - In Shandong, a small number of traders package self - stored goods for shipment. The export demand has decreased, and the prices of fruit for preserves and small fruits have loosened. In Shaanxi, the prices of fruit from fruit farmers in secondary production areas have slightly declined, and the overall shipment is mainly from traders' self - stored goods. The Christmas and New Year stocking atmosphere is not strong [6] Supply Analysis - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 54.70%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points this week. The cold - storage shipment has increased, especially for inferior fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 52.59%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Traders are more pessimistic, and the demand for low - quality fruits is okay [11] - As of December 17, 2025, the total cold - storage apple inventory in the main production areas is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons from last week, and the sales are slower than last year [11] Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of arriving trucks has increased. The market is generally light, with only high - quality apples from Gansu selling well. Second - and third - level wholesalers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, and the inventory in transit warehouses is piling up [14] - As of December 18, the average wholesale price of six key monitored fruits is 7.66 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [14] Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Due to low production and poor quality, the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the market is currently weak, the downward space is limited [16] - Unilateral: The futures market is technically weak, but the downward space is limited [16] - Arbitrage: Go long on the January contract and short on the October contract [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16] Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The document provides data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023, but no specific analysis is given [20] Inventory and Shipment - The document presents historical data on national, Shandong, and Shaanxi cold - storage apple inventory and shipment, but no specific analysis is given [23] Spread and Basis - The document shows historical data on the basis of January, May, and October contracts and the spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts, but no specific analysis is given [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Early - maturing apples have a poor high - quality fruit rate, and it is speculated that Fuji apples may also have a poor high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rainfall in the western production areas is expected to affect the quality. However, considering the current high prices, the apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the supply of mid - maturing apples is increasing. The overall quality of Hongqian Fuji in the west is okay, but some have average chroma and redness due to long rainfall and short sunshine. The price of high - quality goods remains firm. In Shandong, the inventory goods are sold at a stable pace, with individual townships slowing down. The price of fruit farmers' goods is mainly stable. The Red General in Shandong has started trading, but the overall quality is poor, and it's difficult to organize a large amount of high - quality and red goods. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and the profit of early - maturing Fuji for merchants is limited due to high purchase prices [6] - Main production area prices: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade striped apples is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, and the price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples is 3.30 - 4.20 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 starting Red General is 2.3 - 2.8 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above early - maturing Fuji is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin for the mainstream market, 4.7 - 4.8 yuan/jin for high - quality goods, and 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin for ordinary goods. In Baishui, Shaanxi, the price of 70 starting early - maturing Fuji is 3 - 3.3 yuan/jin [6] 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this cycle (20250905 - 0910), and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory removal rate is 96.96%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume is slightly higher than last week. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and Shaanxi cold - storage is gradually clearing inventory [11] - As of September 10, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with last week, and the inventory shipment speed in Shandong is slightly accelerating [11] 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased compared with last week, with an average of about 25.6 vehicles per day. The price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets is 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes is 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala is 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin for 70 starting in baskets, and 6 - 7 yuan/jin for high - quality fruits. Recently, the arrival volume has increased slightly compared with the off - season, mainly Fuji apples, with a small amount of early - maturing Fuji. The high - quality basket - packed Fuji is sold well, while the box - packed ones are slow [14] - Substitute product price: On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it is at the median of the same period in recent years [14] - Profit situation: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.4 yuan/jin, the same as last week [14] - This week, the market arrival volume has increased, the overall sales are good, and the price remains stable. The arrival volume in the wholesale market continues to increase, mainly for the sales of early - maturing apples. The proportion of apples in the cold - storage is small, especially in the northwest. The overall sales of the early - maturing apple market are okay, with a fast sales speed before the Mid - Yuan Festival and a slowdown after the festival [14] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New - season apples may have a poor high - quality fruit rate, but the current price is high, so the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15]