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苹果期货月报:9月呈现震荡偏强波动-20251015
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 09:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the apple futures market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the monthly operating center of the main contract ap2601 shifting slightly upward. The factors influencing the apple market in September, including spot price fluctuations, weather changes in production areas, and the relative impact of other fruits, changed smoothly without unexpected changes, resulting in a relatively stable impact on prices. The market is optimistic about the high opening price of new - season late Fuji apples [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The main apple futures contract ap2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with its monthly operating center moving slightly upward. The three factors affecting the apple market in September changed smoothly and had a relatively gentle impact on prices [3]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - The total open interest of apple futures was 111,461 lots, the trading volume was 1,883,035 lots, and the turnover was 156.5155 billion yuan. The specific contract data is shown in the apple futures monthly market table [4][5]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In September, the apple futures basis was negative overall, meaning the spot price was lower than the futures price [7]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 0 [8]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Influencing Factor Analysis - Substitutes such as grapes and pomegranates had a partial impact. The old - stock Fuji apples in inventory were not fully cleared, and the remaining goods did not move quickly. The market sales were uneven. Some merchants stocked up as needed approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival. The cost of high - quality new fruits remained high. The export volume increased in August with the new - season fruits hitting the market. The prices of mid - and late - maturing varieties in the production areas were relatively stable, and the market was optimistic about the high opening price of new - season late Fuji [8][9][10]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - In September, the technical aspect of apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The short - term moving averages provided some support for the price, and the price fluctuated within a relatively stable range. The moving averages formed a long - position combination, and the long - position power on the disk was slightly dominant [11]. 4. Market Outlook - On the supply side, the flowering period in the western production areas was affected by adverse weather, resulting in small single fruits, and the high - temperature and drought conditions hindered fruit coloring, with a预计 low excellent - fruit rate. The remaining amount of apples in cold storage nationwide is at the lowest level in the past five years. The new - season apples in the western region are generally uneven in size, and the subsequent weather after bag removal needs attention. On the demand side, the market was slightly boosted by the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, but the overall effect was limited. The market is still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits, and the arrival volume of vehicles remains low. In the short term, as the new - season apples are about to be launched in large quantities, the price of the ap2601 contract on the disk may face upward pressure and will likely show a high - level volatile trend [13].
农产品日报:苹果好货不足,红枣供需乏力-20250924
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 05:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the apple industry, the current inventory level is low, providing bottom - price support. New - season high - quality apples have high prices, affecting the sales of inventory apples. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [4] - For the红枣 industry, the 2024 production season had large output and high inventory but poor quality. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with inventory pressure still present. If the subsequent assessment of yield and quality is lower than expected, the upward trend of红枣 prices may continue, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking also needs attention [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8288 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton or - 0.04% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP01 - 688, a change of + 3 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP01 + 1312, a change of + 3 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the Shandong production area, some Red Generals are in the later stage, with small - truck customers preferring low - priced Red Generals. The sales of old stored Fuji in Shandong Qixia and Penglai have slowed down. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, different varieties of apples have different price ranges. In Liaoning Wafangdian, the prices of different varieties of early - maturing apples are also given. The late - maturing Fuji is gradually being de - bagged, and attention should be paid to its quality and the price trend of pre - harvested Fuji [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed slightly lower yesterday. The spot - end prices in production areas are differentiated, with high - quality goods having a premium. The double - festival stocking in sales areas is progressing as needed. The current basis shows short - term support. Attention should be paid to the situation after the late - maturing Fuji is de - bagged and the inventory reduction progress of stored apples. The picking and bag - removing work of late Fuji is sporadic, and rainfall in the west may delay the large - scale bag - removing time. New - season apples in Shandong have a large price range for Red Generals, and the prices of pre - harvested Fuji are higher than last year. The sales of stored apples in Shandong have slowed down significantly [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The current inventory level is low, and the price has bottom support. The high price of high - quality new - season apples affects the sales of stored apples, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10780 yuan/ton, a change of + 45 yuan/ton or + 0.42% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ01 - 1280, a change of - 45 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In the Aksu area, the mainstream mu - yield is 700 - 800 kg, and the jujubes are in the sugar - increasing period. In the Kashgar area, a small number of jujubes have started to wrinkle. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 3 trucks of red dates have arrived, and the prices are stable. Different grades of red dates have different price ranges [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price closed higher yesterday. The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei in the spot market remained the same as before. The replenishment of merchants in sales areas is carried out as needed, and the double - festival stocking has not started significantly. The current basis has further narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of production - area weather on supply, the release of consumption - end stocking momentum, and the realization of futures long - term expectations. The 2024 production season of red dates had large output and high inventory but poor quality. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with inventory pressure still present. The new - season jujube trees may have over - exhaustion problems, and the expected output reduction is strong [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The jujubes in the Xinjiang main production area are in the sugar - increasing stage. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production area on the quality of new - season jujubes. If the subsequent dynamic assessment of yield and quality is lower than expected, the upward trend of red date prices may continue. The demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking also needs attention [8]
苹果周报:西部优果率低果价稳定为主-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Early - maturing apples have a poor high - quality fruit rate, and it is speculated that Fuji apples may also have a poor high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rainfall in the western production areas is expected to affect the quality. However, considering the current high prices, the apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the supply of mid - maturing apples is increasing. The overall quality of Hongqian Fuji in the west is okay, but some have average chroma and redness due to long rainfall and short sunshine. The price of high - quality goods remains firm. In Shandong, the inventory goods are sold at a stable pace, with individual townships slowing down. The price of fruit farmers' goods is mainly stable. The Red General in Shandong has started trading, but the overall quality is poor, and it's difficult to organize a large amount of high - quality and red goods. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and the profit of early - maturing Fuji for merchants is limited due to high purchase prices [6] - Main production area prices: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade striped apples is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, and the price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples is 3.30 - 4.20 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 starting Red General is 2.3 - 2.8 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above early - maturing Fuji is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin for the mainstream market, 4.7 - 4.8 yuan/jin for high - quality goods, and 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin for ordinary goods. In Baishui, Shaanxi, the price of 70 starting early - maturing Fuji is 3 - 3.3 yuan/jin [6] 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this cycle (20250905 - 0910), and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory removal rate is 96.96%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume is slightly higher than last week. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and Shaanxi cold - storage is gradually clearing inventory [11] - As of September 10, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with last week, and the inventory shipment speed in Shandong is slightly accelerating [11] 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased compared with last week, with an average of about 25.6 vehicles per day. The price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets is 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes is 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala is 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin for 70 starting in baskets, and 6 - 7 yuan/jin for high - quality fruits. Recently, the arrival volume has increased slightly compared with the off - season, mainly Fuji apples, with a small amount of early - maturing Fuji. The high - quality basket - packed Fuji is sold well, while the box - packed ones are slow [14] - Substitute product price: On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it is at the median of the same period in recent years [14] - Profit situation: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.4 yuan/jin, the same as last week [14] - This week, the market arrival volume has increased, the overall sales are good, and the price remains stable. The arrival volume in the wholesale market continues to increase, mainly for the sales of early - maturing apples. The proportion of apples in the cold - storage is small, especially in the northwest. The overall sales of the early - maturing apple market are okay, with a fast sales speed before the Mid - Yuan Festival and a slowdown after the festival [14] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New - season apples may have a poor high - quality fruit rate, but the current price is high, so the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15]
苹果周报:双节陆续备货,果价稳定为主-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:09
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly: Dual - Festival Stockpiling Progresses, Apple Prices Stable [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Due to the poor quality of early - maturing apples, the price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is large. The expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but the current futures price is not low, so the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season Fuji will have a significant impact on the futures market [16]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 4.1.1 Spot Analysis - During the week, the stockpiling for the Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals continued. The bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji was sporadic, and rainfall in the west may delay the large - scale bag - removing. In Shandong, the trading price of Red General apples varied widely due to quality differences, with low - quality apples having a price advantage. In the west, the trading of early - maturing Fuji was ending, and some merchants started to order pre - harvested Fuji at a higher price than last year. The inventory of apples in Shandong decreased significantly, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was low [7]. - In Shandong Qixia, the price of farmers' 80 and above general apples was 2.1 - 3.0 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples were 3.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 80 first - and second - grade patchy red apples were 3.0 - 4.0 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 and above low - quality Red General apples was 1.6 - 1.8 yuan/jin, and good - quality ones were 2.5 - 2.8 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of large - diameter mid - and late - maturing varieties such as Qin脆 and Mid - Autumn King was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above high - quality early - maturing Fuji was around 3.8 yuan/jin, and the general price was 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of Mid - Autumn King was 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin, Qin脆 was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin, and Yanfu 10 was 4.8 - 5.0 yuan/jin [7]. 4.1.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this period and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 96.96%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume was slightly higher than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and the cold - storage was gradually being cleared [12]. - As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 16.32 tons, a decrease of 4.59 tons from last week. The inventory shipment in Shandong slowed down due to the impact of mid - maturing varieties [12]. 4.1.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles increased slightly compared to last week, with an average of 31.8 vehicles per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late - maturing Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala in baskets was 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and high - quality ones were 6 - 7 yuan/jin. The price of Hongqian Fuji was 4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of Jingning Red Star in boxes was 5 yuan/jin. With the approaching of the dual festivals, the market was stockpiling, but the overall sales were average, and there was a backlog in the transfer warehouse [15]. - On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the middle level in recent years [15]. - From 2024 - 2025, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as last week. The market arrival volume increased this week, the overall sales were good, and the price remained stable [15]. 4.1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Due to the poor quality rate of early - maturing apples and the expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji, the initial purchase price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be relatively high. However, considering the current high futures price, the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season apples will have a significant impact on the market [16]. - Single - side: In the short term, apples are expected to fluctuate due to the expected poor quality rate. The previous high is expected to be the recent high, and there will be significant selling and hedging pressure after the new - season apples are on the market [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 4.2 Weekly Data Tracking 4.2.1 Apple Supply and Demand - The report presents data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, and production from 2018 - 2023, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20]. 4.2.2 Inventory and Shipment - The report shows the inventory trends of national, Shandong, and Shaanxi apple cold - storages from 2016/17 - 2024/25, as well as the national cold - storage apple shipment trends during the same period [23][24]. 4.2.3 Spreads and Basis - The report provides data on the current and previous closing prices, price changes of AP01, AP05, AP10, and their spreads, as well as the basis data of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and different - month contracts from 2019 - 2025 [26]. 4.2.4 Spot and Futures Prices - The report shows the current price, previous - day price, and price changes of the Fuji apple price index, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples, Penglai first - and second - grade 80 apples, and other spot prices, as well as the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits [27].
苹果产业日报-20250922
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 08:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Report's Core View - The market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing certain support at the lower end. It is recommended to take short - long positions as the main strategy [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 713 yuan; the main contract position is 93,887 lots, an increase of 10,714 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 352 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the weekly capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82%; the weekly capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 69.739 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 645.5 million US dollars, a decrease of 153.3065 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 3.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 20.2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 31.8 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.12%, an increase of 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.12%, an increase of 0.58% [2] Industry News - In the western production area, there is little remaining stock of early - maturing Fuji apples, with poor quality, and transactions are priced according to quality. The transactions of Red Star and Huaniu apples are in progress, and the transaction prices are acceptable. In the Shandong production area, the supply of Red General apples has decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm of buyers is okay, with transactions through bargaining. The remaining stock of local stored Fuji apples has slightly poor quality, and the sales are slow, with the market price under pressure. For the new - season apples, the transaction price of Red General apples in Shandong varies widely due to quality, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious. The transactions of early - maturing Fuji apples in the western region are coming to an end, and the picking - green Fuji apples are waiting to color, with a small number of merchants starting to place orders at a price higher than the same period last year. The preparations for the Double Festival are progressing, the bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji apples is sporadic, and the rainfall in the western region may delay the large - scale bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji apples [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from last week. Affected by the transactions of medium - maturing varieties, the sales speed of the stored apples in the Shandong production area has slowed down. The capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The inventory - removal speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down, and local small merchants tend to choose Red General apples with lower prices. The price of high - quality goods in the warehouse is relatively stable, while the price of farmers' goods is weak. However, the market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing certain support at the lower end [2]
晚富士卸袋普遍推迟,红枣备货不及预期
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 03:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The late Fuji bag - removing is generally postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be scarce. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to remain stable due to low inventory levels [2][3] - Red dates: The market is debating the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still high inventory pressure. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 8281 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly. The late Fuji bag - removing is postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be short. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to be stable with low inventory support [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. With low inventory, the price has bottom support. The high price of new - season high - quality apples affects the inventory apple sales, and the short - term price is expected to be stable [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2601 contract was 10620 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (-1.80%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged [4] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price fell. The market is arguing about the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but the high inventory pressure persists. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The futures price may rise due to capital sentiment when the production reduction cannot be falsified. However, if the reduction is less than expected, the price may turn weak under high - inventory pressure [8]
农产品日报:早熟富士交易尚可,红枣库存高于同期-20250912
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 05:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - Apple: The price of apple futures rose yesterday with active trading in the early-ripening Fuji market. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. The overall de-stocking speed of stored apples is still average, and the short-term market is expected to run stably [1][2][3] - Red dates: The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. The prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high-level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new-season jujube fruits and the demand for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton or 1.50% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi-commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,225 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed higher. The early-ripening Fuji market had active transactions. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. Last week, there were prominent quality problems with early-ripening Gala in the western region, such as poor coloring and small fruit size. The prices of high-quality goods were significantly higher than those of the same period last year, and the profit of some merchants purchasing high-quality Gala was low. The cold storage inventory in the Shandong production area was mainly for the rigid demand replenishment of merchants, and the price of the stored goods continued to decline. The early-ripening varieties in the Shandong production area, such as Luli, Jindu Red, Huashuo, and Meiba, were gradually listed for trading, with a small overall volume, and the prices followed the expected pattern of high opening and low closing. The remaining inventory of apples in the Shaanxi production area was limited and gradually entered the later stage. Affected by the quality of early-ripening apples, merchants turned to the stored goods in the warehouse, and the price of high-quality stored goods increased. In the sales area market, the wholesale price was stable with obvious polarization. After the early-ripening apples were listed, the number of trucks arriving at the market increased slightly compared with the previous off-season, still mainly Fuji apples, with an increase in early-ripening Gala. The sales of early-ripening apples were okay, but the profit of merchants was average, the terminal sales speed was not fast, the digestion speed of high-quality goods was okay, and the digestion of poor-quality goods was slow [1][2] Red dates - The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. In the 2024 production season, the production of red dates was large with high inventory but poor quality. The de-stocking slope of the inventory of 36 sample points was gentler compared to recent years. There is an over - exhaustion problem with the new-season jujube trees, and the estimated new-season production is 56 - 62 tons, with a strong expectation of a reduction. After entering the sugar - increasing period, the growth situation has not shown unexpected changes. The spot price in the sales area market is firm, but the trading volume has decreased, and the demand shows signs of weakness with light trading. Therefore, the prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high - level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new - season jujube fruits. If the subsequent dynamic production assessment is lower than the current expectation, the upward trend of red dates may continue. At the same time, attention should be paid to the demand for Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7] Strategies - Apple: Maintain a neutral stance. Although the sales of stored apples have improved, the overall de - stocking speed is still average. The short - term market is expected to run stably [3] - Red dates: Maintain a neutral stance. Without disproving the reduction in production, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, due to the continuously high inventory of old dates, attention should be paid to the final production of new dates. If the reduction amplitude is less than expected, the red date price may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]