Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is expected to be limited [16] Summary by Directory Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy Spot Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late Fuji apple production areas remains light. Traders' enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers has decreased, mainly packaging pre - ordered and self - stored goods. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of ordinary and lower - quality apples from fruit farmers have loosened. In the sales areas, the sales are still slow, with the sales volume lower than the same period last year. Oranges and other citrus fruits are competing with apples [6] - In Shandong, a small number of traders package self - stored goods for shipment. The export demand has decreased, and the prices of fruit for preserves and small fruits have loosened. In Shaanxi, the prices of fruit from fruit farmers in secondary production areas have slightly declined, and the overall shipment is mainly from traders' self - stored goods. The Christmas and New Year stocking atmosphere is not strong [6] Supply Analysis - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 54.70%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points this week. The cold - storage shipment has increased, especially for inferior fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 52.59%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Traders are more pessimistic, and the demand for low - quality fruits is okay [11] - As of December 17, 2025, the total cold - storage apple inventory in the main production areas is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons from last week, and the sales are slower than last year [11] Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of arriving trucks has increased. The market is generally light, with only high - quality apples from Gansu selling well. Second - and third - level wholesalers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, and the inventory in transit warehouses is piling up [14] - As of December 18, the average wholesale price of six key monitored fruits is 7.66 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [14] Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Due to low production and poor quality, the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the market is currently weak, the downward space is limited [16] - Unilateral: The futures market is technically weak, but the downward space is limited [16] - Arbitrage: Go long on the January contract and short on the October contract [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16] Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The document provides data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023, but no specific analysis is given [20] Inventory and Shipment - The document presents historical data on national, Shandong, and Shaanxi cold - storage apple inventory and shipment, but no specific analysis is given [23] Spread and Basis - The document shows historical data on the basis of January, May, and October contracts and the spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts, but no specific analysis is given [28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the apple market are strong due to a decline in apple production this year, a poor high - quality fruit rate, increased storage difficulty, and expected low cold - storage inventory data. However, considering the high price of the January contract and the large risk approaching delivery, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and also to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and option trading [5][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.30, up 0.08 from the previous trading day. Among futures prices, AP01 was 9526, up 76 from the previous close; AP05 was 9633, up 54; AP10 was 8438, up 27 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Transaction Logic**: This year's apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and storage was more difficult. As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year. The peak cold - storage inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [5] - **Transaction Strategy**: For single - side trading, due to the strong apple fundamentals but the high price of the January contract and high delivery - approaching risks, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage and option trading, it is also recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][8] - **Market Data**: As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 9.4%. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7] - **Spot Price**: In the Shandong production area, the late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage mainly traded small and medium - sized fruits and a small amount of general - quality goods, with few large - sized fruit transactions. The purchase volume of small fruits in cold storage was less than that of last week. In the Qixia area, the mainstream price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 was 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price was stable, and cold - storage trading was not active. In the Luochuan area, the mainstream price of cold - storage bagged Fuji 70 and above was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and high - quality goods were 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty [7] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price charts of Qixia first - and second - grade bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the combined apple arrival volume at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][13][16][18][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, apple production has declined, the excellent fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. The market expects that the cold storage inventory data is likely to be low. The effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. However, due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [16]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy a. Spot Analysis - In Shandong and Shanxi, some apple sources are still being stored in cold storage, and ground trading is gradually ending. Inventory trading is limited. In the sales areas, it is still the off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The increasing supply of citrus squeezes the apple sales space. The prices in major producing areas vary. For example, in Shandong, the ground transaction price of late Fuji has different ranges for different sizes and grades; in Shaanxi, the出库 prices also vary by region and fruit quality [7]. b. Supply Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 55.69%, 7.94 percentage points lower than the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 12.48%. This week, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.18 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 0.32%. Shandong and Shaanxi have different inventory trends. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong increased by 0.57 percentage points, and in Shaanxi, it decreased by 0.08 percentage points. As of November 19, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 773.16 million tons, an increase of 8.92 million tons from last week [12]. c. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has little change. The market is mainly dominated by Gansu apple sources, and the sales of Yunnan smooth - skinned apples have slowed down. The enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers for purchasing is not high. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 20 was 7.18 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and at a high level in recent years. The profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [15]. d. Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, and the cold storage inventory peak is likely to be lower than last year. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Single - sided: Due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Options: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines [16]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking a. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - There are data on apple exports, planting areas, and consumption, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. b. Inventory and Shipment - There are trend charts of national and Shandong cold storage apple inventory and national cold storage apple shipment, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. c. Price Spread and Basis - There are data on 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 price spread, 5 - 10 price spread, and 10 - 1 price spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part.