Report Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang [2] Core Views - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early-maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. After August, the supply of early-maturing apples will increase significantly, and consumption should be monitored [4]. - The main bullish factors are that the inventory in apple-producing areas is at a historical low, and unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention, with possible large-scale production cuts in the Northwest [4]. - The main bearish factors are that the overall production cut is less than expected based on bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits is approaching, which impacts apple sales and reflects weak consumption [4][5]. Price Forecast and Strategy Recommendations Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7,650 - 7,950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past three years [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: To prevent losses from new - season inventory accumulation, enterprises can short sell Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 8,100 - 8,150 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, buyers can buy Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 7,900 - 7,950 [3]. Price and Inventory Data Apple Futures and Spot Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7,879 | 0.33% | 1.65% | | AP03 | 7,790 | 0.37% | 1.5% | |... |... |... |... | [5] Inventory Data - **Steel Union Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 70.45 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 10.15. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 11.12, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 3.65, down 0.98; Gansu's was 2.77, down 0.92 [7]. - **Zhuochuang Data**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 100.07 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 8.76. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 12.31, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 7.03, down 0.65 [7]. Wholesale Market Arrival Data | Market | Arrival Quantity | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Guangdong Chalong | 16 | - 3 | | Guangdong Jiangmen | 8 | - 1 | | Guangdong Xiaqiao | 10 | - 2 | [7]