Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. The opening price of early-maturing apples is higher than last year, and they are selling well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and not selling well. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly influenced by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. However, the quality of early-maturing apples is uneven, and there are concerns about potential issues with late-maturing Fuji apples [4]. - Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in production areas, which may lead to a significant reduction in production in the Northwest region [4]. - Bearish factors include a smaller-than-expected reduction in production based on bagging data and the impact of the peak season of seasonal fruits on apple sales, as well as weak consumer demand [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range for apples in the coming month is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past 3 years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - If worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8300 - 8400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell call options (AP2510C8200) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 30 - 40 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the apple price rises [3]. Procurement Management - If worried about a decrease in old - crop apple inventory, a potential reduction in new - crop apples, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8000 - 8050 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell put options (AP2510P8000) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 70 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the apple price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 22, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, AP04, AP05, AP10, AP11, AP12) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions. The futures contract AP01 closed at 8018 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.12%, while the spot price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75 with a daily decrease of 1.32% and a weekly decrease of 1% [6]. Apple Inventory - On August 22, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 39.45 (with a weekly decrease of 6.56), and according to Zhuochuang was 40.42 (with a weekly decrease of 5.71). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc., also showed weekly decreases. In addition, the arrival volume of apples at several wholesale markets in Guangdong increased compared to the previous week [10].

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/08/15 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 7600-8400 | 10.5% | 0.1% | 【利多解读 】 1、产区库存处于历史低位，产区期初库存偏低同时前期去库速度大于往年，导致随着时间推移产区库存持续 下降，对盘面起到依托作用。 2、产地不稳定的天气因素引发资金关注，有调研数据报告显示，西北产区坐果情况不佳，可能有较大减产。 source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身 | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产， 苹果收购价过低 | 多 ...

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/08/01 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 7600-8400 | 10.5% | 0.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 【利空解读】 1、套袋情况看，整体减产幅度不及预期，钢联根据套袋数据甚至给出了增产预期。 【核心矛盾】 当前市场已经处于苹果的果实膨大期，目前盘面交易的点不多。关注早熟果开秤价，目前早熟苹果开秤价高 于去年，相当好卖，但库存果掉价不好卖。近期盘面抬升主要还是受到低库存及早熟价格和销售影响，且受 到农产品消费文件的提振，但随着情绪的消退，苹果价格快速回落。 【利多解读 】 1、产区库存处于历史低位，产区期初库存偏低同时前期去库速度大于往年，导致随着时间推移产区库存持续 下降，对盘面起到依托作用。 2、产地不稳定的天气因素引发资金关注，有调研数据报告显示，西北产区坐果情况不佳，可能有较大减产。 | 行为 | 情景分析 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang [2] Core Views - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early-maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. After August, the supply of early-maturing apples will increase significantly, and consumption should be monitored [4]. - The main bullish factors are that the inventory in apple-producing areas is at a historical low, and unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention, with possible large-scale production cuts in the Northwest [4]. - The main bearish factors are that the overall production cut is less than expected based on bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits is approaching, which impacts apple sales and reflects weak consumption [4][5]. Price Forecast and Strategy Recommendations Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7,650 - 7,950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past three years [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: To prevent losses from new - season inventory accumulation, enterprises can short sell Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 8,100 - 8,150 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, buyers can buy Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 7,900 - 7,950 [3]. Price and Inventory Data Apple Futures and Spot Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7,879 | 0.33% | 1.65% | | AP03 | 7,790 | 0.37% | 1.5% | |... |... |... |... | [5] Inventory Data - **Steel Union Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 70.45 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 10.15. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 11.12, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 3.65, down 0.98; Gansu's was 2.77, down 0.92 [7]. - **Zhuochuang Data**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 100.07 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 8.76. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 12.31, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 7.03, down 0.65 [7]. Wholesale Market Arrival Data | Market | Arrival Quantity | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Guangdong Chalong | 16 | - 3 | | Guangdong Jiangmen | 8 | - 1 | | Guangdong Xiaqiao | 10 | - 2 | [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. It is estimated that there is a high possibility that the overall market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are selling well, while the price of stored apples is dropping and they are not selling well [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7650 - 7950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a national bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, they can short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7900 - 7950 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory and a new - crop apple减产, with a short spot position, they can buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. The market is likely to be volatile from June to August. Early - maturing apples have a higher opening price than last year and sell well, while stored apples have falling prices and poor sales [4]. Bullish Factors - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking speed have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5]. - Unstable weather in the producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing areas is poor, and there may be a significant减产 [8]. Bearish Factors - The overall减产 amplitude from bagging data is less than expected, and some data even shows an expected increase in production [8]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits like watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. Also, high - priced apples face a situation of "high price but no market", indicating weak consumption [6][8]. Apple Inventory and Market Data - On July 18, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 80.6 (with a weekly change of - 10.89), and according to Zhuochuang was 100.07 (with a weekly change of - 8.76). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu also decreased [9]. - The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong showed changes, such as 18 vehicles at Guangdong Chalong (a weekly increase of 2) [9]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On July 18, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) are provided, as well as the prices and price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. It is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the yield of this variety is relatively small [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in production areas that may lead to a large reduction in yield. Bearish factors are that the overall reduction in yield is less than expected based on bagging conditions, and the peak season of seasonal fruits has an impact on apple sales [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.6% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - For those worried about a high - yield of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a reduction in new - crop apple yield, and high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in purchase costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the closing prices of AP01, AP03, AP04, etc. showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7594, with a daily decline of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 0.03% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various apple varieties such as Qixia First - and Second - grade 80, Luochuan Semi - commercial 70 remained unchanged on that day [6]. - **Other Indicators**: The disk profit was - 709, with a daily decline of 2.61% and a weekly decline of 2.48%. The delivery theoretical price was 8600, remaining unchanged [6]. Apple Inventory - **National Cold - Storage Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 106.91 (a decrease of 9.58 compared to the previous period), and on June 26, 2025, it was 100.07 (a decrease of 8.76 compared to the previous period) [8]. - **Regional Storage Ratios**: The storage ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu and other regions showed different degrees of decline [8]. - **Wholesale Market Arrival Volume**: The arrival volumes at Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, and Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale markets increased compared to the previous period [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. The trading points on the futures market are limited, and it is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the production of this variety is small [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 9.1% over the past three years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples nationwide and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about the decline of old - crop apple inventory and the reduction of new - crop apple production, leading to high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the futures market. It is likely to be volatile from June to August. Focus on bagging data and early - maturing apple opening prices. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is flat compared to last year, but production is low [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster inventory reduction than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures market [5]. - Unstable weather in apple - producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing area is poor, and there may be a significant reduction in production [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The overall reduction in production based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [5]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. High - priced fruits have no market, indicating weak consumption [5]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01 - AP12, spreads like AP01 - 05, etc.) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different spot apple varieties (e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commercial 70), as well as data on profit, theoretical delivery price, and basis [6]. Apple Inventory - As of June 20, 2025 (Steel Union data), the national cold - storage inventory was 116.49 (decrease of 10.97), and as of June 12, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), it was 126.69 (decrease of 9.81). The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc.) and the weekly changes in the number of trucks arriving at some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) are also provided [8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: June 10, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market focuses on bagging conditions and consumption impacts, and attention should be paid to early-maturing apple prices after mid-June [4] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in some regions; bearish factors include less-than-expected overall yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [5][6] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.8% [3] - For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, enterprises with long positions can short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 7600 - 7650 range to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop apple inventory and potential new - crop apple production reduction, enterprises with short positions can buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7350 - 7450 range to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - Inventory in apple production areas is at a historical low. Low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking in the early stage have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5] - Unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, indicating a possible significant production reduction [5] Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [6] - As the season for seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices has impacted the apple market. High - priced fruits have few buyers, indicating weak consumption [6] Price Changes - On June 10, 2025, the closing prices of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly percentage changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7439 with a daily increase of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.54% [6] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (such as Qixia first - and second - grade 80) remained stable on that day, with no daily or weekly price changes [6] Inventory Status - The national cold - storage inventory is 138.2 (unit not specified), showing a decrease of 13.76 compared to a previous period. The national cold - storage inventory in another comparison is 136.5 with an increase of 9.81 [9] - Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning have different cold - storage capacity ratios, all showing a downward trend [9] - The arrival volume of apples at major wholesale markets in Guangdong (such as Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen) decreased on a weekly basis [9]

Report Information - Report Name: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The current contradiction in the apple market revolves around the production volume expectation of the new production season, and the market is in a game over the fruit - setting situation in the production areas [3] Summary by Directory Apple Price Range Prediction - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7500 - 8500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 99.2% [3] Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 8000 - 8100 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a new - crop apple yield reduction, and high purchase prices, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7500 - 7600 [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Qilu Yuanquan, the largest delivery warehouse in the eastern production area, was suspended from delivery business by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, indicating stricter delivery quality inspection requirements and being unfavorable to the delivery side [4] - The inventory in the production areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and a faster de - stocking speed than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures price [4] - Unstable weather in the production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, possibly leading to a large - scale yield reduction [4] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Although the production areas experienced gale, cooling, and dry - hot wind weather in April, it is too early to estimate the yield, and there are doubts about the results of current research reports indicating a large - scale yield reduction due to poor fruit - setting [5] Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices of different contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly changes on May 16, 2025. For example, AP01 closed at 7711 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly decrease of 0.12% [5] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commodity 70, etc.) also had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 with no daily or weekly change [5] - Other indicators such as盘面利润 (futures profit), 交割理论价格 (theoretical delivery price), 主力基差 (main contract basis), etc. also showed corresponding changes [5] Apple Inventory - On May 16, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory data from Steel Union was 195.1 with a weekly decrease of 33.76, and the data from Zhuochuang was 165.82 with a weekly decrease of 25.37 [7] - The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) also showed weekly decreases [7] - The arrival vehicle numbers and their weekly changes in some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) were provided [7]