Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the late stage of apple harvest. Continuous rainy weather has significantly reduced apple quality, leading to a large price gap between high - quality and low - quality apples [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include delayed apple harvest in Yantai, higher opening prices of western late - Fuji apples, and expected lower effective inventory in major producing areas. Bearish factors include slow consumption in the National Day market and inventory backlog in transit warehouses [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 8400 - 9000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.6% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a new apple harvest and low purchase prices, they can short apple futures (AP2601, sell, 25%, entry range 8900 - 9000) and sell call options (AP2601C8800, sell, 25%, entry range 200 - 300) to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about high apple purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and scarce high - quality new - crop apples, they can buy apple futures (AP2601, buy, 75%, entry range 8600 - 8700) and sell put options (AP2511P8600, buy, 75%, entry range 150 - 180) to lock in procurement costs and reduce expenses [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures contracts such as AP01, AP03, etc., have different daily and weekly price changes. For example, AP01 closed at 8850 on October 24, 2025, with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 2.61%. Spot prices of different apple varieties also have their own price trends, like the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75, with no daily change and a 1% weekly decrease [8]. Apple Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 6.79 (data from Steel Union), with a weekly decrease of 2.28. As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 14.79 (data from Zhuochuang), with a weekly decrease of 6.02. The arrival volume of apples at Guangdong wholesale markets also had weekly changes, such as 26 vehicles at Guangdong Chalong with a decrease of 2 [9].

source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/10/09 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 8400-9000 | 10.5% | 34.1% | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身 | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产， 苹果收购价过低 | 多 | 情况，做空苹果期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | AP2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 8800-8 900 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若苹果价上 涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | AP2601C8800 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, and the focus is on the delivery of new apples. New late Fuji apples may have a high opening price due to small fruit sizes, but it's uncertain if the price will keep rising. There may be a polarization of high - quality apples with high prices and low - quality apples with low prices [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and potential overall quality - related yield reduction. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction, price differences between high - and low - quality early - maturing apples, and a slowdown in inventory decline [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 8100 - 8700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 41.5% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: - For those worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, they can sell AP2510 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 8500 - 8600 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell AP2511C8600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: - For those worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop inventory and potential new - crop yield reduction, they can buy AP2510 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 8300 - 8400 range to lock in purchase costs. They can also buy AP2511P8100 put options at a 75% hedging ratio in the 70 - 80 range to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if the price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On September 12, 2025, AP01 closed at 8329 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly increase of 0.40%. AP10 closed at 8438 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.68%. The spot prices of various apple grades remained unchanged on that day. The daily increase of the盘面 profit was 6.01%, and the weekly decrease was 6.81% [6]. Apple Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 20.91, with a weekly decrease of 6.44. The national cold - storage inventory according to Zhuochuang on September 4 was 30.62, with a weekly decrease of 4.73. The inventory in some production areas like Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased, while the inventory in Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning was zero. The arrival volume of apples at some Guangdong wholesale markets increased [10].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, and the focus is on the delivery of new apples. New late Fuji apples may have a high opening price, but it's uncertain if the price will continue to rise. There may be a polarization of high - quality apples having high prices and poor - quality apples having low prices [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather causing potential yield reduction. Bearish factors are that the overall yield reduction is less than expected, the impact of off - season fruits, and weak consumption [5][6][8]. Summary by Directory Apple Price Interval Prediction - The predicted monthly price interval for apples is 7800 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.6% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a new apple harvest and low purchase prices, they can short apple futures (AP2510) with a 50% hedging ratio at 8300 - 8400 and sell call options (AP2511C8400) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 40 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising apple prices due to old - crop inventory decline and new - crop yield reduction, they can buy apple futures (AP2510) with a 50% hedging ratio at 8000 - 8100 and sell put options (AP2511P7900) with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 60 to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [3]. Core Contradiction - The market is in the fruit expansion period, and the focus is on new - apple delivery. New late Fuji apples may have a high opening price, and there may be a price polarization [4]. Bullish Factors - Low inventory in production areas and fast de - stocking in the early stage support the market. Unstable weather in production areas may lead to a large yield reduction in the northwest [5]. Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction is less than expected, and there is even an expected increase in production. The peak season of off - season fruits impacts the apple market, and consumption is weak. The recent slowdown in inventory decline and small fruit size may lead to low prices [6][8]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices of different contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) have different daily and weekly changes. Spot prices of different apple varieties (Qixia 80, Luochuan 70, etc.) also have corresponding changes. The profit on the futures market decreased by 17.08% daily and 17.56% weekly, and the theoretical delivery price is 8600 [6]. Apple Inventory - As of September 5, 2025 (Steel Union data), the national cold - storage inventory was 27.35 (weekly change: - 6.62), and the storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc. also decreased. As of September 4, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), the national cold - storage inventory was 30.62 (weekly change: - 4.73), and the storage capacity ratios in relevant regions also decreased. The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong increased [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early - maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well. The recent increase in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early - maturing apple prices, and sales. However, the quality of early - maturing apples is uneven, and there are concerns about late - maturing Fuji apples. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [3]. - Bullish factors include low inventory in apple - producing areas and unstable weather in production areas that may lead to a large reduction in production in the Northwest [4][5]. - Bearish factors include the overall apple production reduction being less than expected according to bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits impacting apple sales, along with weak consumer demand [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Contents Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 8100 - 8600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, sell 50% of AP2510 futures contracts at 8500 - 8600 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell 50% of AP2511C8600 call options at 100 - 120 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the apple price rises [3]. Procurement Management - When worried about a decrease in old - crop apple inventory, a reduction in new - crop apple production, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, buy 50% of AP2510 futures contracts at 8100 - 8150 to lock in procurement costs. Also, buy 50% of AP2511P7900 put options at 90 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the apple price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 29, 2025, different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) had different closing prices, daily and weekly percentage changes. Spot prices of different apple varieties also had corresponding price and percentage changes. The futures spread and basis also showed different trends [7][8]. Apple Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 33.97 (with a weekly decrease of 5.48), and according to Zhuochuang was 35.35 (with a weekly decrease of 5.07). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc., all decreased. The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong increased [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. The opening price of early-maturing apples is higher than last year, and they are selling well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and not selling well. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly influenced by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. However, the quality of early-maturing apples is uneven, and there are concerns about potential issues with late-maturing Fuji apples [4]. - Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in production areas, which may lead to a significant reduction in production in the Northwest region [4]. - Bearish factors include a smaller-than-expected reduction in production based on bagging data and the impact of the peak season of seasonal fruits on apple sales, as well as weak consumer demand [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range for apples in the coming month is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past 3 years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - If worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8300 - 8400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell call options (AP2510C8200) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 30 - 40 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the apple price rises [3]. Procurement Management - If worried about a decrease in old - crop apple inventory, a potential reduction in new - crop apples, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8000 - 8050 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell put options (AP2510P8000) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 70 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the apple price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 22, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, AP04, AP05, AP10, AP11, AP12) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions. The futures contract AP01 closed at 8018 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.12%, while the spot price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75 with a daily decrease of 1.32% and a weekly decrease of 1% [6]. Apple Inventory - On August 22, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 39.45 (with a weekly decrease of 6.56), and according to Zhuochuang was 40.42 (with a weekly decrease of 5.71). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc., also showed weekly decreases. In addition, the arrival volume of apples at several wholesale markets in Guangdong increased compared to the previous week [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples with few trading points on the market. The opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are well - sold, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the market is mainly affected by low inventory, early - maturing apple prices and sales, as well as the boost from stable agricultural product consumption. However, with the fading of sentiment, apple prices have quickly declined and may remain range - bound in the near future [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1% [3] 3.2 Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When worried about a national apple bumper harvest and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a selling ratio of 50% and an entry range of 8300 - 8400. Also, sell call options (AP2510C8400) to collect premiums, with a selling ratio of 50% and an entry range of 50 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - When worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a new - crop apple shortage, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) to lock in procurement costs, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 8000 - 8050. Also, sell put options (AP2510P8100) to collect premiums, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 70 - 80 [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points. Early - maturing apples have a high opening price and are well - sold, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent market rise is affected by low inventory, early - maturing prices, sales, and consumption stability, but prices may range - bound after sentiment fades [4] 3.4利多解读 - The orchard inventory is at a historical low, with low initial inventory and faster de - stocking than in previous years, which supports the market [5] - Unstable weather in the producing areas has attracted capital attention, and there may be a large reduction in production in the northwestern producing areas [5] 3.5利空解读 - The overall reduction in production is less than expected based on bagging data, and there is even an expected increase in production [6] - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply and low prices of fruits like watermelons, grapes, and lychees impact apples, and high - priced fruits show weak consumption [6] 3.6 Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 15, 2025, different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) had different closing prices, daily and weekly price changes. Spot prices of some apple varieties remained unchanged, and the market profit was - 1123 with a - 5.71% daily change and 19.85% weekly change. The delivery theoretical price was 8600 with a 3.86% weekly change [7] 3.7 Apple Inventory - On August 15, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 46.01 with a weekly decrease of 7.58, and according to Zhuochuang was 46.13 with a weekly decrease of 5.07. The storage capacity ratios in different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) also changed. The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets remained unchanged [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. The opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are easy to sell, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market was mainly due to low inventory, early - maturing apple prices and sales, as well as the boost from agricultural product consumption policies, but the price quickly fell as the sentiment faded [3]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and potential yield reduction due to unstable weather. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over 3 years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about new apple over - production and low purchase prices (long in spot), they can short the AP2510 apple futures at 7850 - 7900 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the AP2510C7900 call options at 120 - 150 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about old - crop inventory decline, new - crop yield reduction and high purchase prices (short in spot), they can buy the AP2510 apple futures at 7650 - 7700 with a 50% hedging ratio and buy the AP2510P7700 put options at 140 - 160 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. Apple Price Changes - Futures: On August 1, 2025, AP01 closed at 7685 with a daily decline of 0.8% and a weekly decline of 2.46%. Different contracts had different price changes [6]. - Spot: The prices of different grades of apples in various regions had different weekly changes, such as a - 4% weekly decline for Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples [6]. Apple Inventory - On August 1, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 61.61 (a weekly decrease of 8.84), and according to Zhuochuang was 64.81 (a weekly decrease of 8.6). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu and other regions also decreased [10]. Bullish Factors - Low inventory in production areas provides support for the futures market. Unstable weather in production areas may lead to yield reduction in the Northwest region [4]. Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction is less than expected, and there is even an expected increase in production according to bagging data. The peak season of seasonal fruits impacts the apple market, and consumer demand is weak [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang [2] Core Views - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early-maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. After August, the supply of early-maturing apples will increase significantly, and consumption should be monitored [4]. - The main bullish factors are that the inventory in apple-producing areas is at a historical low, and unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention, with possible large-scale production cuts in the Northwest [4]. - The main bearish factors are that the overall production cut is less than expected based on bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits is approaching, which impacts apple sales and reflects weak consumption [4][5]. Price Forecast and Strategy Recommendations Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7,650 - 7,950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past three years [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: To prevent losses from new - season inventory accumulation, enterprises can short sell Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 8,100 - 8,150 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, buyers can buy Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 7,900 - 7,950 [3]. Price and Inventory Data Apple Futures and Spot Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7,879 | 0.33% | 1.65% | | AP03 | 7,790 | 0.37% | 1.5% | |... |... |... |... | [5] Inventory Data - **Steel Union Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 70.45 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 10.15. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 11.12, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 3.65, down 0.98; Gansu's was 2.77, down 0.92 [7]. - **Zhuochuang Data**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 100.07 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 8.76. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 12.31, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 7.03, down 0.65 [7]. Wholesale Market Arrival Data | Market | Arrival Quantity | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Guangdong Chalong | 16 | - 3 | | Guangdong Jiangmen | 8 | - 1 | | Guangdong Xiaqiao | 10 | - 2 | [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. It is estimated that there is a high possibility that the overall market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are selling well, while the price of stored apples is dropping and they are not selling well [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7650 - 7950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a national bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, they can short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7900 - 7950 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory and a new - crop apple减产, with a short spot position, they can buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. The market is likely to be volatile from June to August. Early - maturing apples have a higher opening price than last year and sell well, while stored apples have falling prices and poor sales [4]. Bullish Factors - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking speed have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5]. - Unstable weather in the producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing areas is poor, and there may be a significant减产 [8]. Bearish Factors - The overall减产 amplitude from bagging data is less than expected, and some data even shows an expected increase in production [8]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits like watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. Also, high - priced apples face a situation of "high price but no market", indicating weak consumption [6][8]. Apple Inventory and Market Data - On July 18, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 80.6 (with a weekly change of - 10.89), and according to Zhuochuang was 100.07 (with a weekly change of - 8.76). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu also decreased [9]. - The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong showed changes, such as 18 vehicles at Guangdong Chalong (a weekly increase of 2) [9]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On July 18, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) are provided, as well as the prices and price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions [6].