Report Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang [2] Core Views - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early-maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. After August, the supply of early-maturing apples will increase significantly, and consumption should be monitored [4]. - The main bullish factors are that the inventory in apple-producing areas is at a historical low, and unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention, with possible large-scale production cuts in the Northwest [4]. - The main bearish factors are that the overall production cut is less than expected based on bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits is approaching, which impacts apple sales and reflects weak consumption [4][5]. Price Forecast and Strategy Recommendations Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7,650 - 7,950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past three years [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: To prevent losses from new - season inventory accumulation, enterprises can short sell Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 8,100 - 8,150 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, buyers can buy Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 7,900 - 7,950 [3]. Price and Inventory Data Apple Futures and Spot Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7,879 | 0.33% | 1.65% | | AP03 | 7,790 | 0.37% | 1.5% | |... |... |... |... | [5] Inventory Data - **Steel Union Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 70.45 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 10.15. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 11.12, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 3.65, down 0.98; Gansu's was 2.77, down 0.92 [7]. - **Zhuochuang Data**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 100.07 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 8.76. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 12.31, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 7.03, down 0.65 [7]. Wholesale Market Arrival Data | Market | Arrival Quantity | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Guangdong Chalong | 16 | - 3 | | Guangdong Jiangmen | 8 | - 1 | | Guangdong Xiaqiao | 10 | - 2 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. April Market Review - In April, the apple price continued to rise. The cold - storage inventory was low, and the demand entered the seasonal peak. The spot price increased slightly by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan. The price center of the May futures contract rose from 7700 - 7800 yuan/ton to around 8000 yuan/ton, and that of the October contract rose from 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton to 7800 - 8000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Overview - In April, apple inventory was relatively low, demand was fair, and prices were firm with some price increases. Before the May Day holiday, market restocking led to high enthusiasm among merchants, active trading of all kinds of goods, and accelerated cold - storage shipments. Sellers' reluctance to sell due to low inventory pushed up the spot price [7] - The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from March and 0.9 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 28.1%. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commercial goods was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the end of March, and 0.7 yuan/jin lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [8][10] 2.2 Apple Inventory Situation - As of April 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 309.98 million tons, a decrease of 161.84 million tons from four weeks ago and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. Shandong's inventory was 125.9 million tons (down 37.3% year - on - year), Shaanxi's was 104.19 million tons (down 38.2% year - on - year), Gansu's was 52.52 million tons (up 16% year - on - year), Shanxi's was 11.6 million tons (down 76% year - on - year), and Liaoning's was 9.35 million tons (down 72.8% year - on - year) [14] - In May, the cold - storage apple shipment volume is expected to decline compared with April but remain at a relatively high level [14] 2.3 May as the Verification Period of Apple Yield - In April, most apple - producing areas had good weather during the flowering period. The gale, cooling, and sandstorm weather from April 11 - 13 may have affected apple blossom, but the overall impact on yield is not significant. The impact on fruit - setting rate is yet to be verified during the bagging period in mid - to late May [27][28] 2.4 Demand Situation - In April, the cold - storage apple shipment volume was high, with weekly shipments ranging from 30 - 45 million tons. The cold - storage apple profit was good, with the cold - storage gross profit of Shandong Qixia Fuji first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 reaching 0.9 yuan/jin as of April 25 [29] - The arrival volume in the sales area market was average. The arrival volume in Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets in April was slightly higher than that in March but lower than that of the previous two years. The terminal demand improved slightly [29][30] 2.5 Import and Export Situation - In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 96,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 255,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [36] - In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [36] - In the next few months, apple imports and exports are expected to remain at a relatively high level compared with the same period, but there is a strong seasonality. Usually, the export volume decreases in April, while the import volume increases [36] 2.6 Substitute Situation - In late March, the supply of mandarins decreased, and the price rose to a high level compared with the same period. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of mandarins was 7.61 yuan/kg, basically the same as the previous month [41] - The price of Ya pears was basically stable. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of Ya pears was 5.68 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous month [41] - In May, there will be a relative gap in the listing of large - quantity alternative fruits, so it is still a seasonal consumption peak for apples [41] 3. Market Outlook - In the short term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47]