Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in apple futures prices in 2025 was a result of the re - pricing of systematic risks on the supply side, which was the result of the superposition and resonance of the "inventory - quality - system" triple mechanism. The pricing core of apple futures will be long - term anchored to the high - quality fruit rate, storage quality, and availability of delivery products, rather than the total output. In 2026, apple futures will show a high - level oscillation in the first half of the year and may experience differentiated adjustments in the second half due to supply - demand and storage factors, continuing the structural feature of "tight supply of high - quality apples and slow sales of ordinary apples" [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Apple Futures Price Trends - **Since listing to 2025**: Apple futures prices have fluctuated sharply, showing cyclical characteristics related to production and quality. From 2017 to 2018, prices were affected by seasonality and supply expectations; from 2018 to 2021, they entered a bear market due to factors like high inventory and increased production; from 2021 to 2024, prices fluctuated widely; in 2025, prices oscillated upward [9][13][14]. - **2025**: The price showed a unilateral upward trend, with the main contract breaking through 9,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side issues such as production and quality decline, demand - side factors like festival - driven short - term demand, and policy and market sentiment all contributed to the price increase [21]. 2. Apple Supply Situation - **Production**: In 2025, extreme weather in major apple - producing areas affected production. The estimated national apple production for the 2025/26 season was 4,800 million tons, a slight 3% increase year - on - year, but the high - quality fruit rate decline was the key factor [34]. - **High - quality fruit rate**: The high - quality fruit rate in 2025 decreased significantly, with regional differences. The supply of high - quality apples was tight, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [41]. - **Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 5.5292 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The effective inventory was further reduced, and the market showed a pattern of "low inventory supporting high prices and quality differentiation intensifying market polarization" [42][46]. 3. Apple Consumption Situation - The consumption of apples in the 2025/26 season was stable but weak, facing challenges in growth due to factors such as slow population and income growth. The arrival of apples in major markets did not show a significant increase. The "consumption downgrade" and intense competition in the fruit market restricted apple consumption, but the price increase of substitute fruits might stimulate apple consumption [47][49][53]. 4. Seasonal Factors of Apples - Apples are a storable fruit. Their consumption combines timely and storage - based consumption. The peak consumption periods are in autumn when new apples are on the market and in the first half of the year when inventory apples are sold. Festival effects also impact apple consumption. The probability of price increases is higher in February and April, and the probability of price decreases is higher in March, May, November, and December [57][61]. 5. Outlook for 2026 - **First half**: Apple futures are likely to maintain high - level oscillation and are prone to rising. In the first quarter, festival demand and low inventory support prices, but there may be short - term callbacks. In the second quarter, the market faces the off - season, but high - quality apples' prices remain resilient [62][64]. - **Second half**: In the third quarter, storage risks may suppress prices, and the market will be in a weak - oscillation pattern. In the fourth quarter, the market will be dominated by new - season production expectations, and festival - driven demand may boost prices [65][67]. 6. Apple Options Market Analysis - For upstream enterprises worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums. For downstream enterprises worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options during price corrections to lock in procurement costs [68].