Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in apple futures prices in 2025 was a result of the re - pricing of systematic risks on the supply side, which was the result of the superposition and resonance of the "inventory - quality - system" triple mechanism. The pricing core of apple futures will be long - term anchored to the high - quality fruit rate, storage quality, and availability of delivery products, rather than the total output. In 2026, apple futures will show a high - level oscillation in the first half of the year and may experience differentiated adjustments in the second half due to supply - demand and storage factors, continuing the structural feature of "tight supply of high - quality apples and slow sales of ordinary apples" [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Apple Futures Price Trends - **Since listing to 2025**: Apple futures prices have fluctuated sharply, showing cyclical characteristics related to production and quality. From 2017 to 2018, prices were affected by seasonality and supply expectations; from 2018 to 2021, they entered a bear market due to factors like high inventory and increased production; from 2021 to 2024, prices fluctuated widely; in 2025, prices oscillated upward [9][13][14]. - **2025**: The price showed a unilateral upward trend, with the main contract breaking through 9,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side issues such as production and quality decline, demand - side factors like festival - driven short - term demand, and policy and market sentiment all contributed to the price increase [21]. 2. Apple Supply Situation - **Production**: In 2025, extreme weather in major apple - producing areas affected production. The estimated national apple production for the 2025/26 season was 4,800 million tons, a slight 3% increase year - on - year, but the high - quality fruit rate decline was the key factor [34]. - **High - quality fruit rate**: The high - quality fruit rate in 2025 decreased significantly, with regional differences. The supply of high - quality apples was tight, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [41]. - **Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 5.5292 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The effective inventory was further reduced, and the market showed a pattern of "low inventory supporting high prices and quality differentiation intensifying market polarization" [42][46]. 3. Apple Consumption Situation - The consumption of apples in the 2025/26 season was stable but weak, facing challenges in growth due to factors such as slow population and income growth. The arrival of apples in major markets did not show a significant increase. The "consumption downgrade" and intense competition in the fruit market restricted apple consumption, but the price increase of substitute fruits might stimulate apple consumption [47][49][53]. 4. Seasonal Factors of Apples - Apples are a storable fruit. Their consumption combines timely and storage - based consumption. The peak consumption periods are in autumn when new apples are on the market and in the first half of the year when inventory apples are sold. Festival effects also impact apple consumption. The probability of price increases is higher in February and April, and the probability of price decreases is higher in March, May, November, and December [57][61]. 5. Outlook for 2026 - **First half**: Apple futures are likely to maintain high - level oscillation and are prone to rising. In the first quarter, festival demand and low inventory support prices, but there may be short - term callbacks. In the second quarter, the market faces the off - season, but high - quality apples' prices remain resilient [62][64]. - **Second half**: In the third quarter, storage risks may suppress prices, and the market will be in a weak - oscillation pattern. In the fourth quarter, the market will be dominated by new - season production expectations, and festival - driven demand may boost prices [65][67]. 6. Apple Options Market Analysis - For upstream enterprises worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums. For downstream enterprises worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options during price corrections to lock in procurement costs [68].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple price trends are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji apples. The recent rise in apple futures prices is mainly due to concerns about the good fruit rate, and the prices of early - harvested Fuji and Gansu Huaniu are higher than last year, setting the tone for the late Fuji opening price [2] - The near - end trading logic focuses on the good fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji, the opening price, and the new late - Fuji price trend. The market's bet on quality issues has led to a continuous rise in the futures market. The far - end contracts are weaker, with an expectation of price decline after a high opening, but the decline may be limited [3][4] - The apple market is currently in an uptrend, but the 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The main factors influencing apple prices are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji. Eastern apples have smaller fruit sizes and may have problems like reverse greening and chicken - claw marks due to rainy weather after bag - removal. Western apples also face similar issues, and their fruit sizes are smaller than usual [2] - The opening prices of Gala and early Fuji are good, with the early - harvested Fuji price 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year and Gansu Huaniu 1 yuan/kg higher [2] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The apple market's upward momentum continues. The 10 - contract reached a new high last week, and the winning positions hold more than 4000 net long positions. The 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, if worried about a high - yield season and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (25% at 8500 - 8600) and sell call options (50% at 20 - 30) to lock in profits and reduce costs [9] - For procurement management, if worried about high purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and a shortage of good - quality new - crop apples, enterprises can buy apple futures (50% at 8300 - 8400) and sell put options (75% at 50 - 60) to lock in purchase costs [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of September 17, national cold - storage inventory decreased. Steel Union data shows 12.18 tons, a 4.14 - ton decrease from last week, and Zhuochuang data shows 14.79 tons, a 6.02 - ton decrease. Shandong's cold - storage capacity ratio decreased [10] - This week, late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removal period. Western bag - removal was postponed by a week, and the progress is similar to the east. Shandong's late Fuji may have problems with reverse greening and coloring due to rainy weather [11] - Western early - harvested Fuji prices are 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year, and most are pre - ordered by merchants. Western late Fuji will be on the market after October 5, with large - scale listing in mid - October [11] - Gansu Huaniu has smaller fruit sizes and a lower commodity rate due to previous high - temperature and drought. The price is 1 yuan/kg higher than last year, but the large amount of fruit stored by farmers may not be favorable for the market [11] - The number of trucks arriving at three major markets in Guangdong decreased slightly due to a typhoon this week. With the approaching of festivals, the number of trucks increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [12] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Focus on the sales and remaining inventory of stored Fuji, as well as the weather, bag - removal, quality, and opening price of late Fuji [17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures prices rose, but the increase in the main contract was small. The total position is at the lowest level in the past 5 years but has increased recently. The winning positions have been increasing continuously. Technically, the main contract shows a fluctuating upward trend [17] 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The apple spread structure shows significant fluctuations in nearby contracts approaching the delivery month. The 10 - contract may be the strongest [19][20] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples in the 24/25 season is 0.3 yuan/kg, affected by the price drop of stored apples. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is yet to be determined [22] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Based on previous bagging data, the 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in national apple production, but the final output may decline compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly. The quality of Gala apples makes people worried about the quality of late Fuji [24][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple supply this year may be similar to that of early - maturing apples, with little change in production but low excellent fruit rate, especially in terms of fruit diameter. Apple prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend at the beginning of the listing and weaken later when a large number of apples are on the market. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term but may fall as Fuji apples are widely listed [5][33] - In the short term, it is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Foreword Summary 1.1 Market Review - In August, the main - continuous price of apple futures rose from around 7,700 - 7,800 yuan/ton to around 8,400 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The increase was due to concerns about the production and excellent fruit rate of new - season apples, especially the poor excellent fruit rate of early - maturing Gala apples and the high price of high - quality apples. The exchange's stricter delivery rules also supported the futures price [4][10] 1.2 Market Outlook - Apple prices may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend at the beginning of the listing and weaken later. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term due to the small quantity and high price of high - quality early - maturing Gala apples and stricter delivery rules, but may fall as Fuji apples are widely listed [5][33] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In August, with the large - scale listing of summer seasonal fruits, the demand for cold - storage apples was relatively weak, and the prices of cold - storage apples in Shandong and Shaanxi declined. The main - continuous price of apple futures rose due to concerns about new - season apple production and excellent fruit rate and stricter delivery rules [10] 2.2 Weak Demand for Old - Season Apples - August is the off - season for apple demand. Cold - storage apple demand was poor, the出库 speed was slow, and prices were weak. As of August 29, 2025, the national main - producing area cold - storage apple inventory was 33.97 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. In September, with the large - scale listing of new - season early - maturing apples, cold - storage apple demand is expected to further weaken, but the inventory will remain low [13][15] 2.3 Possible Problems with the Excellent Fruit Rate of New - Season Apples - In Shaanxi, some areas may have smaller fruit diameters, affecting the excellent fruit rate. In Shandong, the apple size in some areas is currently smaller than in previous years, and the fruit diameter in September needs further observation. In Gansu, the fruit diameter of new - season late - maturing Fuji is normal, and the overall fruit surface is good [18][19] 2.4 Apple Demand in the Off - Season - August is the traditional off - season for cold - storage apple demand. This year, the demand is weaker than in previous years. The cold - storage apple price and gross profit have declined. The daily average arrival volume at Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets has increased seasonally. In September, the demand for cold - storage apples will remain weak, while the demand for new - season early - maturing apples will gradually improve [20][22] 2.5 Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In July, the export volume increased slightly. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume decreased by 6% year - on - year. In August and September, the export volume is expected to increase seasonally. Apple imports: In July, the import volume decreased slightly. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume increased by 29.7% year - on - year. In August and September, the import volume is expected to continue to decrease [26] 2.6 Substitute Situation - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits decreased seasonally in August and is expected to continue to decline in September. The average wholesale price of watermelons is at a low level in July and August and is expected to rise in September. In September, with the listing of autumn fruits, fruit prices are expected to further decline [29] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Old - season apple inventory is low, and new - season early - maturing apples have quality problems such as poor coloring, small size, and greening. Demand: Old - season apples are in the off - season, while high - quality early - maturing Gala apples have good demand. The impact of holidays this year is weak. Apple prices may be slightly stronger at the beginning of the listing and weaken later. Futures prices may remain strong in the short term and fall later [32][33]