Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have been rising since October, with a cumulative increase of approximately 900 yuan/ton, driven by concerns over reduced production and quality for the 2025/2026 season [2] Supply Side Analysis - Adverse weather conditions in key production areas such as Henan, Shaanxi, and Shandong have negatively impacted apple yield and quality, leading to a significant decline in new season apple production, estimated at 34.23 million tons, down 3.12 million tons from the previous season [2][4] - The national cold storage inventory ratio is approximately 55.87%, a decrease of 7.52 percentage points year-on-year, with total inventory at 7.36 million tons, down 12.13% from last year [4] Demand Side Analysis - There is a strong demand for high-quality apples, with traders actively purchasing from regions with low inventory, particularly in Gansu [3][4] - The market is experiencing a price disparity based on quality, with small apples seeing price increases due to demand from foreign trade and speculative buyers [3] Market Trends - The apple market is expected to maintain high prices in the short term, especially as winter approaches, which is a peak consumption season for apples [4][5] - The pricing logic for apple futures is shifting from supply-driven to consumption-driven as the harvest season progresses, indicating potential volatility in future pricing [5]

侯芝芳表示，目前苹果库外交易主要集中在山东，甘肃地区开始库内交易，陕西地区有零星的库外交易，整体价格延续同比上涨的表现，产区入库进入尾 声，库存峰值进入兑现期。从消费端来看，增量驱动不足，消费面临压力。 黎静宜表示，从供应端来看，根据卓创资讯数据，截至2025年11月13日，全国冷库库存比例约为55.87%，较去年同期降低7.52个百分点。库存量为735.77 万吨，较去年同期下滑12.13%。库存结构方面，一、二级优质好货占比普遍较少，统货和三级果占比较高。从需求端来看，客商对好货的采购积极性较 高。山东产区冷库优质好货及部分中小果开始出库，中小果成交价格明显高于库外收购价。近期陕西产区逐渐进入库内交易阶段，冷库同质量的果农货成 交价格高于库外货源收购价。综合来看，客商对不同质量的货源采购积极性出现分化，大小果价差短期可能难以收敛。 自10月以来，苹果期货价格震荡上行，累计上涨约900元/吨。 方正中期期货苹果研究员侯芝芳认为，近期的期货价格走势集中反映了市场对2025/2026产季苹果减产、质量下降的担忧。今年苹果产区受不利天气扰动 较多，生长期河南、陕西、山东等地区遭遇了干旱天气，收获期又遭遇了持续阴雨 ...