苹果减产

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减产消息被证伪 苹果期货可等待反弹后逢高做空
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-11 06:16
Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products showed a mostly positive trend, with apple futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.91%, reaching a high of 8192.00 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for apples opened at 8100.00 yuan/ton and fluctuated between a low of 8062.00 yuan and a high of 8192.00 yuan, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - Southwest Futures noted that the main contract represents the new season's purchase price, with a slight increase in national production, contradicting previous reduction expectations [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures highlighted that the supply of early-ripening apples has decreased in recent years, leading to a significant price differentiation in the market, with high-quality apples commanding higher prices [2] - The new season's apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase prices for early-ripening apples in the northwest region are higher than last year, providing some support for late-ripening varieties [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on dips in the short term, focusing on the performance of the new season's apple production [2]
调研报告 | 苹果:西部产区历史性的坐果减产
对冲研投· 2025-05-06 11:18
Core Viewpoint - The western apple-producing regions are facing the most severe drought in nearly a decade, compounded by extreme weather conditions including high temperatures and strong winds, which have significantly impacted pollination and fruit set rates [1][42]. Group 1: Drought and Weather Impact - The western regions have experienced a rare combination of "heat, drought, and wind," leading to poor pollination and fertilization of apple blossoms, which are primarily dependent on insect pollinators [1][20]. - From April 10 to 14, the regions faced high temperatures and strong winds, which coincided with the peak flowering period, resulting in a low fruit set rate due to adverse weather conditions [1][26]. - The drought conditions have led to insufficient tree nutrition, further exacerbating the low fruit set rates observed this season [1][22]. Group 2: Production Survey Findings - A survey conducted over six days across 246 orchards revealed significant production declines: approximately 50% in Shaanxi, 50% in Shanxi, and 30-40% in Gansu due to the adverse weather during the flowering period [2][43]. - The survey indicated that the expected production levels have deteriorated rapidly, with initial optimistic forecasts being revised downwards within a week [2][29]. - The current situation is unique as it represents a significant reduction in fruit set during a critical period, contrasting with previous years where frost damage was often recoverable [2][44]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - Current spot prices for apples are at their highest levels in six years, driven by low inventory levels and a mismatch between market expectations and reality [3][38]. - The inventory structure is notably different from previous years, with fewer large holders, indicating that the supply is tight as the new season approaches [3][44]. - The price for new season apples is expected to remain strong, with a low likelihood of falling below 4 yuan per jin, potentially reaching historical highs due to the anticipated production shortfall [3][39]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Historical data shows that years with production declines often lead to higher opening prices for the new season's apples, with the current year expected to follow this trend due to significant reductions in expected yield [4][45]. - The analysis suggests that the new season's average opening price could challenge historical highs, particularly given the current strong spot market performance and the expected quality issues in the upcoming harvest [4][45].