Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have been rising since October, with a cumulative increase of approximately 900 yuan/ton, driven by concerns over reduced production and quality for the 2025/2026 season [2] Supply Side Analysis - Adverse weather conditions in key production areas such as Henan, Shaanxi, and Shandong have negatively impacted apple yield and quality, leading to a significant decline in new season apple production, estimated at 34.23 million tons, down 3.12 million tons from the previous season [2][4] - The national cold storage inventory ratio is approximately 55.87%, a decrease of 7.52 percentage points year-on-year, with total inventory at 7.36 million tons, down 12.13% from last year [4] Demand Side Analysis - There is a strong demand for high-quality apples, with traders actively purchasing from regions with low inventory, particularly in Gansu [3][4] - The market is experiencing a price disparity based on quality, with small apples seeing price increases due to demand from foreign trade and speculative buyers [3] Market Trends - The apple market is expected to maintain high prices in the short term, especially as winter approaches, which is a peak consumption season for apples [4][5] - The pricing logic for apple futures is shifting from supply-driven to consumption-driven as the harvest season progresses, indicating potential volatility in future pricing [5]

侯芝芳表示，目前苹果库外交易主要集中在山东，甘肃地区开始库内交易，陕西地区有零星的库外交易，整体价格延续同比上涨的表现，产区入库进入尾 声，库存峰值进入兑现期。从消费端来看，增量驱动不足，消费面临压力。 黎静宜表示，从供应端来看，根据卓创资讯数据，截至2025年11月13日，全国冷库库存比例约为55.87%，较去年同期降低7.52个百分点。库存量为735.77 万吨，较去年同期下滑12.13%。库存结构方面，一、二级优质好货占比普遍较少，统货和三级果占比较高。从需求端来看，客商对好货的采购积极性较 高。山东产区冷库优质好货及部分中小果开始出库，中小果成交价格明显高于库外收购价。近期陕西产区逐渐进入库内交易阶段，冷库同质量的果农货成 交价格高于库外货源收购价。综合来看，客商对不同质量的货源采购积极性出现分化，大小果价差短期可能难以收敛。 自10月以来，苹果期货价格震荡上行，累计上涨约900元/吨。 方正中期期货苹果研究员侯芝芳认为，近期的期货价格走势集中反映了市场对2025/2026产季苹果减产、质量下降的担忧。今年苹果产区受不利天气扰动 较多，生长期河南、陕西、山东等地区遭遇了干旱天气，收获期又遭遇了持续阴雨 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products showed a mostly positive trend, with apple futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.91%, reaching a high of 8192.00 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for apples opened at 8100.00 yuan/ton and fluctuated between a low of 8062.00 yuan and a high of 8192.00 yuan, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - Southwest Futures noted that the main contract represents the new season's purchase price, with a slight increase in national production, contradicting previous reduction expectations [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures highlighted that the supply of early-ripening apples has decreased in recent years, leading to a significant price differentiation in the market, with high-quality apples commanding higher prices [2] - The new season's apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase prices for early-ripening apples in the northwest region are higher than last year, providing some support for late-ripening varieties [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on dips in the short term, focusing on the performance of the new season's apple production [2]

Core Viewpoint - The western apple-producing regions are facing the most severe drought in nearly a decade, compounded by extreme weather conditions including high temperatures and strong winds, which have significantly impacted pollination and fruit set rates [1][42]. Group 1: Drought and Weather Impact - The western regions have experienced a rare combination of "heat, drought, and wind," leading to poor pollination and fertilization of apple blossoms, which are primarily dependent on insect pollinators [1][20]. - From April 10 to 14, the regions faced high temperatures and strong winds, which coincided with the peak flowering period, resulting in a low fruit set rate due to adverse weather conditions [1][26]. - The drought conditions have led to insufficient tree nutrition, further exacerbating the low fruit set rates observed this season [1][22]. Group 2: Production Survey Findings - A survey conducted over six days across 246 orchards revealed significant production declines: approximately 50% in Shaanxi, 50% in Shanxi, and 30-40% in Gansu due to the adverse weather during the flowering period [2][43]. - The survey indicated that the expected production levels have deteriorated rapidly, with initial optimistic forecasts being revised downwards within a week [2][29]. - The current situation is unique as it represents a significant reduction in fruit set during a critical period, contrasting with previous years where frost damage was often recoverable [2][44]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - Current spot prices for apples are at their highest levels in six years, driven by low inventory levels and a mismatch between market expectations and reality [3][38]. - The inventory structure is notably different from previous years, with fewer large holders, indicating that the supply is tight as the new season approaches [3][44]. - The price for new season apples is expected to remain strong, with a low likelihood of falling below 4 yuan per jin, potentially reaching historical highs due to the anticipated production shortfall [3][39]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Historical data shows that years with production declines often lead to higher opening prices for the new season's apples, with the current year expected to follow this trend due to significant reductions in expected yield [4][45]. - The analysis suggests that the new season's average opening price could challenge historical highs, particularly given the current strong spot market performance and the expected quality issues in the upcoming harvest [4][45].