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茅台价格回归供需关系
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茅台非标减量,价格重回1550
新财富· 2025-12-18 08:05
Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has introduced new distribution channel policies focusing on controlling supply and reducing non-standard product quantities to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer demand [3][5]. Group 1: Supply Control Measures - The company has decided to pause all unshipped orders for December and will not prioritize early sales for the 2026 sales plan, instead basing future shipments on actual sales performance [9]. - Non-standard product supplies will be adjusted, with a 30% reduction in 15-year aged and kilogram Moutai, a 50% reduction in the zodiac series, and a halt in the supply of rare Moutai [9]. - The pricing strategy for premium Moutai will be optimized, with potential price reductions based on market performance after the supply adjustments [9]. Group 2: Price Formation Mechanism - The wholesale price of Moutai can be viewed as a dynamic equilibrium function of supply and demand, with the factory's suggested retail price being a set figure rather than a market-driven price [8]. - The significant gap between the actual wholesale price and the official price (greater than 1499 yuan) has led to excess demand, which has been supplemented by older vintages of Moutai [10]. - As of December 2025, the wholesale price of Moutai had dropped to 1450 yuan, indicating a direct reflection of supply and demand dynamics, with the price sensitivity to demand fluctuations increasing [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The overall demand for liquor is declining in line with population growth, while supply is in a capacity release cycle, prompting the management to implement proactive measures to control prices [13]. - The effectiveness of Moutai's price control will depend on the execution of the proposed measures and the market's response to these changes [13]. - The company aims to focus resources on three core products: Moutai 1935, Flying Moutai, and Premium Moutai, targeting price segments of 600+ yuan, 1500+ yuan, and 2000+ yuan respectively [9].