菜籽压榨
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菜粕大涨超4%,发生了什么?
对冲研投· 2025-11-03 08:12
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in the price of rapeseed meal, driven by strong market demand and tight supply conditions, with expectations for continued price stability in the near term [4][10]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The price of rapeseed meal reached 2581 CNY/ton, up 1.73% from the previous working day, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4]. - The production capacity for rapeseed meal is nearly stagnant, unable to compensate for the current market demand, leading to a tight supply situation [4]. - In October, coastal oil mills processed 57,000 tons of rapeseed, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous month, with rapeseed meal production also declining [8]. - The inventory levels for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are extremely low, with domestic imported rapeseed inventory at 0.0 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and significantly lower than last year's 743,000 tons [8]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the fourth quarter is typically a weak consumption season for rapeseed meal, and the delay in the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may impact market dynamics [10]. - Despite the low processing volumes, imports of rapeseed meal have not shown a downward trend, indicating resilience in supply [10]. - The article suggests that the market is currently in a phase of wide fluctuations, with demand expected to weaken, but with potential support from low valuations and strong cost support from soybean meal [11][12]. Price Forecast - The rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with average prices projected around 2580-2590 CNY/ton in the near term [4]. - The article anticipates that the rapeseed meal prices may experience a rebound due to support from rapeseed oil and rapeseed futures prices [14].