Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the week of December 22 - 26, 2025, the rapeseed meal market showed a fluctuating upward trend. The Canadian canola futures hit a nine - month low and still face pressure due to a record harvest, high inventory, and weak export demand, with no short - term trend improvement expected. The spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the current oil mills are shut down, leading to a tight supply of rapeseed meal. However, Australian rapeseed is arriving at ports, increasing the long - term supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, rapeseed meal will maintain a fluctuating trend with no significant fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The rapeseed meal futures price showed a fluctuating upward trend during the week. As of Friday, the main contract, rapeseed meal rm2605, closed at 2391 points, with a high of 2404 points and a low of 2309 points. The position was 650,686 lots, an increase of 52,198 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume was 1.6701 million lots, an increase of 321,800 lots from the previous week [4][5]. - **Variety Market**: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, all contracts rose to varying degrees. The total position of the variety was 779,859 lots, and the trading volume was 1,888,527 lots [7]. - **Related Market**: The rapeseed meal options traded 446,920 lots during the week, with a total position of 118,745 lots, an increase of 28,801 lots in position, and a total of 6 lots exercised during the week [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot price of rapeseed meal showed a fluctuating upward trend during the week. On December 22, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2,450 yuan/ton, and on December 26, it was 2,488.33 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of rapeseed meal fluctuated gently during the week, ranging from 113 yuan/ton to 96 yuan/ton [12]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal were 0, the same as the previous week [13]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The market has a strong expectation that the supply and demand of domestic rapeseed products will gradually become looser after December with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and Russian rapeseed oil in the 2025/2026 season. Although there was news that some Russian rapeseed oil was returned, which stimulated a short - term rebound in rapeseed oil prices, the overall trend of looser supply and demand remains unchanged, limiting the market's expectation of rapeseed meal price increases [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The rapeseed meal rm2605 contract showed a fluctuating and strengthening adjustment during the week. The prices on Thursday and Friday rose strongly, indicating a short - term upward rebound. The price was above the moving averages of various periods, and the weekly low was effectively supported near the previous low. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the upper high on the price [17]. 3.4 Market Outlook The price of the rapeseed meal futures rm2605 contract was strongly influenced by market sentiment this week. In the short term, it may continue to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern. However, there is still some uncertainty in the future trend. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of the Canadian rapeseed import policy and the arrival and operation of domestic imported soybeans and rapeseed on prices [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates in the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Affected by soybean meal, the market will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The market is expected to remain volatile due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2500 - 2560 range. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and rising, which is bullish; the main long positions are decreasing but funds are flowing in, which is bullish. The market is expected to remain volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports. The main logic of the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 28 to November 5, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3017 - 3092 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 5.35 - 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2500 - 2640 yuan/ton, and there was little trading volume. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract rebounded from a low level. Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed in October remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained low. Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][17][19]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis other than the fact that the main long positions of rapeseed meal decreased and funds were flowing in [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in the price of rapeseed meal, driven by strong market demand and tight supply conditions, with expectations for continued price stability in the near term [4][10]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The price of rapeseed meal reached 2581 CNY/ton, up 1.73% from the previous working day, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4]. - The production capacity for rapeseed meal is nearly stagnant, unable to compensate for the current market demand, leading to a tight supply situation [4]. - In October, coastal oil mills processed 57,000 tons of rapeseed, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous month, with rapeseed meal production also declining [8]. - The inventory levels for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are extremely low, with domestic imported rapeseed inventory at 0.0 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and significantly lower than last year's 743,000 tons [8]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the fourth quarter is typically a weak consumption season for rapeseed meal, and the delay in the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may impact market dynamics [10]. - Despite the low processing volumes, imports of rapeseed meal have not shown a downward trend, indicating resilience in supply [10]. - The article suggests that the market is currently in a phase of wide fluctuations, with demand expected to weaken, but with potential support from low valuations and strong cost support from soybean meal [11][12]. Price Forecast - The rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with average prices projected around 2580-2590 CNY/ton in the near term [4]. - The article anticipates that the rapeseed meal prices may experience a rebound due to support from rapeseed oil and rapeseed futures prices [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540. It is currently in a short - term shock - strong pattern influenced by the uncertain final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term trend is affected by news, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range. The fundamentals are neutral due to rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations and technical consolidation. The basis is bullish as the spot price is 2580 with a basis of 62, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is bullish as it decreased by 28% week - on - week to 1.8 tons and 25% year - on - year. The price is bearish as it is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is down. The main position is bearish as the main short positions decreased and funds flowed out [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2620, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was relatively stable during this period, while the futures price fluctuated and declined, resulting in a slight expansion of the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed was at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9].