交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-06 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 近期要闻： 1.国内水产养殖进入长假后淡季，现货市场供应短期进入偏紧预期，需 求端逐渐减少压制盘面预期，加拿大油菜籽进入收割阶段，但中加贸易问题 影响短期出口减少国内供应预期。 2.中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查初步裁定成立，并开始征收进口 保证金75.8%，一旦最终裁定成立，保证金将作为加征关税不予退还，但是 未来裁定结果尚有变数，等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量保持增产，主要加拿大油菜籽产量高于预期。 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2500至2560区间震荡 1.基本面： ...

行情走势 01 2025年11月3日周一，油籽期价提振带动盘面回暖，菜粕主力合约日间盘收涨逾4%。 产业监测 02 据百川盈孚，11月3日，菜粕价格为2581元/吨，较上一工作日价格上涨1.73%。今日菜粕价格强势上涨，市场看多情绪浓厚。其涨势主要受 到整体蛋白粕类市场强劲氛围的带动，自身需求表现尤为突出，终端采购意愿积极。供应面相对偏紧，有效支撑了价格的向上突破。 后市预测：菜粕产出能力近乎停滞，无法通过新增产能弥补现货缺口，供应端菜籽的紧平衡格局为现货端提供上行动力。预计下一工作日菜粕 市场将保持区间内整理为主，均价围绕在2580-2590元/吨。 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 | | 现货报价 | 涨跌 | 形态 | 蛋白含量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 南通 | 2460 | 40 | 颗粒状 | 38% | | 东莞 | 2600 | 80 | 粉状 | 38% | | 防城港 | 2590 | 80 | 粉状 | 38% | 供应方面：根据 My s teel 统计，10月沿海油厂菜籽压榨量为5.70万吨，较上月减少10.5万吨。10月沿海油厂 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540. It is currently in a short - term shock - strong pattern influenced by the uncertain final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term trend is affected by news, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range. The fundamentals are neutral due to rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations and technical consolidation. The basis is bullish as the spot price is 2580 with a basis of 62, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is bullish as it decreased by 28% week - on - week to 1.8 tons and 25% year - on - year. The price is bearish as it is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is down. The main position is bearish as the main short positions decreased and funds flowed out [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2620, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was relatively stable during this period, while the futures price fluctuated and declined, resulting in a slight expansion of the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed was at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9].