Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, with concerns about recession and expectations for interest rate cuts creating a challenging environment for investors [1][3] Economic Signals - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with increasing risks of economic slowdown [3] - The July non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downward, which may signal a turning point in the economy [4][5] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring but no large-scale layoffs, aligning with other signs of economic weakness [4] Interest Rate Expectations - The market has shifted its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a high likelihood of a cut in September [6] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has increased to more than two [6] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline further, with the yield curve for 2-year and 5-year bonds potentially steepening [6] Investment Strategies - Investors face the challenge of finding assets that can benefit from expected rate cuts while also providing protection against the risk of a deep recession [3] - Options products betting on accelerated rate cuts are becoming attractive as a "recession protection" tool due to declining market volatility [7]

美股市场正行走于刀锋之上。一方面，美国就业市场的疲软信号愈发明确，经济失速的风险正在累积； 另一方面，市场对美联储重启降息的预期也因此升温。高盛认为，未来两个月将是决定性的观察期，这 场增长与政策的拉锯战，将影响美股和债市的下一步走向。 据追风交易台消息，高盛顶尖交易员多米尼克·威尔逊（Dominic Wilson）在最新研报中写道，当前投资 的核心挑战在于，如何找到既能从市场预期的美联储降息中获益，又能在美国深度经济衰退风险成为现 实时提供保护的投资标的。 对于全球股市而言，这同样是一场微妙的平衡游戏。报告指出，只要能够避免深度下行风险，美股就可 以继续"攀爬忧虑之墙"。然而，考虑到市场对增长放缓的定价已较为充分，且衰退风险依然高企，股市 的回调风险比以往更高。 同时，市场已重新定价美联储的宽松路径，9月降息的可能性很高。短期美债收益率仍有下行空间，并 且在更激进的降息预期下，2年期与5年期美债收益率曲线可能进一步陡峭化。 在7月非农数据公布后，市场对美联储降息的预期发生了巨大转变。高盛指出，美联储很可能在9月份重 启其降息周期。 目前，9月降息已在市场定价中得到充分反映，全年降息次数的预期也已超过两次。尽 ...