随着美元因美联储再度扣动降息扳机而跌跌不休，只要中国经 济基本面呈现更强增长韧性吸引全球资本增加中国金融资产的 配置力度，更多海外投资基金会入场押注人民币汇率上演补涨 行情。 作者：陈植 封图：图虫创意 美元"由牛转熊"更进一步。 6月26日，美元指数一度跌破97整数关口，盘中创下2022年3月以来的最低点96.99，这意味着今年 以来美元指数累计跌幅达到约10.9%。 这背后，是本周多位美联储官员暗示支持7月降息，令华尔街对美联储加快降息步伐的预期骤然升 温。 6月26日，境外离岸市场美元兑人民币汇率（CNH）一度触及7.1517，这意味着离岸人民币汇率创 下去年11月8日以来最高值。不过，相比今年以来日元、欧元、韩元等其他主要经济体货币的升值 幅度分别达到约9%、13.5%与6.5%，离岸人民币汇率升值幅度（约3%）相对较低。 张刚认为，这主要受到中美利差倒挂幅度维持高位，以及中国央行早于美联储加码货币宽松政策等 因素影响，但人民币汇率相对较小的涨幅，也吸引越来越多海外基金纷纷入场押注人民币补涨行 情。 "在美元跌跌不休的情况下，海外基金因对等关税博弈不确定性而看跌人民币汇率的意愿正持续减 弱。"一位香港 ...

美元"由牛转熊"更进一步。 6月26日，美元指数一度跌破97整数关口，盘中创下2022年3月以来的最低点96.99，这意味着今年以来 美元指数累计跌幅达到约10.9%。 这背后，是本周多位美联储官员暗示支持7月降息，令华尔街对美联储加快降息步伐的预期骤然升温。 芝加哥商品交易所的Fed Watch工具显示，当前华尔街金融市场预期美联储在7月货币政策会议调降利率 25个基点的几率升至23%。但在一周前，这个数值不到15%。 6月26日，境外离岸市场美元兑人民币汇率（CNH）一度触及7.1517，这意味着离岸人民币汇率创下去 年11月8日以来最高值。不过，相比今年以来日元、欧元、韩元等其他主要经济体货币的升值幅度分别 达到约9%、13.5%与6.5%，离岸人民币汇率升值幅度（约3%）相对较低。 张刚认为，这主要受到中美利差倒挂幅度维持高位，以及中国央行早于美联储加码货币宽松政策等因素 影响，但人民币汇率相对较小的涨幅，也吸引越来越多海外基金纷纷入场押注人民币补涨行情。 "在美元跌跌不休的情况下，海外基金因对等关税博弈不确定性而看跌人民币汇率的意愿正持续减 弱。"一位香港银行外汇交易员向记者透露，6月以来，越来越多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Lingang New Area is positioned as a key breakthrough for exploring offshore financial development in China, focusing on three-dimensional innovations in offshore trade financial services [1][7]. Group 1: Innovations in Offshore Trade Financial Services - Establishment of dedicated offshore trade accounts (FTT accounts) allows for cross-border fund transfers in seconds, aiming for a threefold increase in fund turnover rate by 2025 compared to traditional accounts [1]. - Implementation of digital RMB for cross-border settlements, with a target to cover 80% of offshore trade scenarios by 2026 [1]. - Simplification of business processes through blockchain technology, reducing the number of required paper documents from 20 to 3, significantly decreasing verification time from multiple days to seconds [1]. Group 2: National-Level Authenticity Verification Platform - Integration of data from six major systems, including foreign exchange, customs, and taxation, to create a national-level offshore trade authenticity verification blockchain platform, improving verification accuracy from 82% to 99% [2]. - The platform includes a risk heat map for automatic triggering of enhanced due diligence on high-risk transactions, ensuring full traceability of cross-border funds [2]. Group 3: Tax and Service Ecosystem - Upgraded tax incentives for offshore trade enterprises, including exemptions from income tax and VAT for offshore RMB settlement businesses [2]. - Introduction of a comprehensive financial service package, providing financing based on accounts receivable and establishing a service center for offshore trade enterprises [2]. Group 4: Offshore Bond and Multi-Currency Strategy - Legislative measures to establish a regulatory framework for offshore bonds by the end of 2025, enhancing the offshore attributes of these instruments [3]. - Expansion of available currencies in FTT accounts to 19 and signing currency swap agreements with countries like Vietnam and Egypt [3]. - Development of a digital RMB offshore bond lifecycle management platform by 2026, reducing settlement cycles and costs significantly [3]. Group 5: Pricing and Global Capital Attraction - Collaboration with Hong Kong and Singapore to create a RMB offshore bond yield curve, aiming to become a core pricing benchmark by 2030 [4]. - Implementation of tax exemptions for foreign investors in offshore bonds, with plans to introduce RMB offshore bond futures and options by 2026 [4]. Group 6: Institutional and Corporate Engagement - Integration of various account types into a new FT account, with a target increase in non-resident account penetration from 5.9% to 45% by 2026 [5]. - Incentives for state-owned enterprises to use RMB for at least 50% of payments in Belt and Road projects, along with export tax rebates for RMB settlements [5]. Group 7: Infrastructure and Regional Service Enhancement - Development of a global RMB offshore clearing center in Lingang by 2027, with a daily clearing volume target of 50 trillion yuan [6]. - Upgrading CIPS to a platform for both settlement and asset custody, with a goal of 50 trillion yuan in offshore bond custody by 2025 [6]. - Establishing a three-tier service structure to enhance offshore financial services across the Yangtze River Delta region [6]. Group 8: Long-term Vision - The strategy aims to establish Shanghai as a global offshore asset allocation center centered around RMB by 2030, enhancing its status in international financial governance [7].

Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) aims to maintain market stability and enhance internal stability mechanisms, including risk monitoring and supporting listed companies in utilizing various capital market tools [1][2] - SSE plans to deepen the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to improve inclusivity and adaptability, facilitating the identification of quality tech enterprises and expanding the application of the fifth set of standards [1][2] - SSE will implement the "Six Guidelines for Mergers and Acquisitions" to enhance the role of the capital market in M&A activities, improving review efficiency and creating a favorable M&A ecosystem [1][2] Group 2 - SSE is focused on attracting long-term capital to build a long-term investment ecosystem, enhancing product offerings, and developing a robust index system to meet investor needs [2] - The capital market has significantly stimulated both investment and financing, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board showing substantial growth in R&D investment and patent generation [2][3] - In 2024, the SSE reported over 700 asset restructuring plans, with a notable increase in major asset restructurings, particularly in emerging industries like semiconductors and new energy [3] Group 3 - The financial performance of listed companies on the SSE is strong, with significant contributions to overall market revenue and profit, and a record high in dividends distributed [3] - The market capitalization of ETFs has doubled, and long-term capital holdings in A-shares have increased significantly, indicating a growing interest from institutional investors [3]

我国是世界铝工业大国，据中国有色金属工业协会统计，2024年全年我国铸造铝合金（再生）产能约为 1300万吨，产量约为620万吨，占全球总产量的26.2%，产业规模位居世界前列。值得注意的是，该产 业当前面临结构性矛盾：上游废铝供应持续偏紧推高成本，而下游产品价格竞争激烈压缩利润空间，叠 加需求收缩与库存高企的双重压力，行业亟需有效的风险管理工具。铸造铝合金期货上市后，产业链企 业可以通过场外期权工具进行更精准的风险管理，助力企业降本增效。 南华期货（603093）及其风险管理子公司作为国内领先的衍生品综合服务商，始终秉持着"金融服务实 体"的宗旨，通过运用场内外衍生工具，切实帮助企业降本增效。未来，公司将持续深耕铸造铝合金产 业链，通过专业化培训、定制化服务赋能上下游企业，以实际行动服务新质生产力发展，为推进中国式 现代化建设贡献金融力量。 随着铸造铝合金期货于2025年6月10日在上海期货交易所正式挂牌上市，南华资本同步完成其首笔铸造 铝合金场外期权交易，充分体现了公司在产业金融服务领域的快速响应能力和创新优势。此次首单交易 的快速落地，源于南华期货（603093）的前瞻性布局：在期货上市筹备阶段深入产业 ...

在我国橡胶产地，有这样一排排"娃娃树"——虽然挺拔而立、枝叶繁茂，但从未流出过乳白色的胶汁。 它们，是胶农的希望所在，未来最终将在胶农的辛勤劳作下流出乳白色的"希望之汁"。从种植到开割， 一棵橡胶树需要八年时间。这八年，是胶农们精心呵护、耐心等待的八年，也是天然橡胶"保险+期 货"项目扎根、成长、开花结果的八年。 金融"活水"润胶林 胶农从"望天收"到"安心割" 2011年，胶价在创下4000美元/吨的历史高位后快速下跌，国内天胶价格一度从43500元/吨跌至10000元/ 吨附近，跌幅超过70%。在这一轮"熊市"周期中，胶农收入锐减，价格低时卖一公斤胶水的收入还不够 买一瓶矿泉水，常面临"割胶即亏损"的情况。 十年前，由于胶价跌破成本线，海南、云南的胶农每割一吨胶便面临亏损超5000元的尴尬。自此，胶农 陷入"欲割不能，欲罢不忍"的两难境地。为了生计，许多胶农无奈放弃割胶或转种其他作物。据期货日 报记者了解，2015年海南白沙黎族自治县的弃割率高达30%～40%，甚至有部分村庄完全弃管。至于云 南地区，资料显示，在2016年胶价长期处于低位的情况下，部分胶园改种香蕉等经济作物，我国天胶种 植面积因此缩减。不 ...

● 本报记者 王超 近年来，我国期货市场发展成效显著，有力支持了国民经济平稳健康发展，但是同全面建设社会主义现 代化国家和经济高质量发展的要求相比，期货服务实体经济的供给质效和实体企业需求之间尚未实现充 分的匹配，提升潜力明显。 对此，窦长宏认为，这也是期货市场在持续优化其价格发现、风险管理和资源配置功能的落脚点：一方 面，当前期货行业还需要持续积累服务能力，更好地满足实体产业的需求；另一方面，产业企业对期货 市场的有效运用还有较大的提升空间，突出表现在： "从实体企业角度来看，伴随着期货市场工具日益丰富、功能持续发挥，实体企业对期货的认知和参与 度进一步提升，越来越多的产业链上下游企业运用期货工具进行风险管理。"窦长宏表示，但与庞大的 实体产业体量相比，实体企业参与不充分，服务存在"卡点"。 他举例说，截至2024年底，我国中小微企业数量达5000余万家，而同期期货风险管理公司累计服务的中 小微企业不足四万家次，还有大量企业尚未直接参与期货和衍生品市场，风险管理业务相对于整个实体 经济的体量远远不够。 "究其原因，一是税收政策不明确、国资参与政策受限等深层次体制机制问题尚未破题，影响产业参与 积极性；二是企 ...

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) hosted the 2025 Global Investor Conference, emphasizing that investing in China equates to investing in the future [1] - SZSE's ETF market has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, attracting over 360 billion yuan in new funds in 2024, with the number of ETF holders reaching 4.65 million, a 43% year-on-year increase [1][2] - The SZSE is focused on high-quality ETF market development, with 99% of ETFs having liquidity service providers and plans to lower management and custody fees for 26 ETFs, benefiting investors by over 1 billion yuan annually [2] Group 2 - The current market conditions suggest a shift from traditional markets to China, with investors seeking growth potential and stable policies, as evidenced by the strong performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index, which rose 18% [3] - ETFs are highlighted as key tools for asset allocation, providing high liquidity and low costs, allowing investors to capture opportunities in Asia and China amid a weakening dollar [3] - The SZSE plans to diversify its fund market offerings, including multi-asset ETFs, technology innovation bond ETFs, and REITs ETFs, while also developing more broad-based and thematic ETF options [2]

1. 美国ETF创新产品：贝莱德发行权重上限3%的标普500调整产品 上周美国共10只新发产品，发行速度继续偏低： 上周二，Unlimited发行一只全球宏观对冲策略ETF，管理费1%，涉及全球股票、债券、外汇等不同品种，公司的 CEO此前是桥水投资委员会成员之一，有超过20年的宏观对冲策略经验，该产品希望提供同类产品两倍的波动率以获 得更高的收益。 F/m上周发行一只高收益债ETF，跟踪的指数投资于100只最大、流动性最好的高收益债，通过市值、流动性、信用资 质来选债，然后等权持有。相比于传统的抽样复制，这一精选指数、全复制的投资方法相对更安全、稳定。此外， Avantis上周发行一只主动管理投资级债券ETF，希望通过主动选债增强收益。 另类策略管理人Simplify上周拓宽两只期权产品，Barrier Income ETF首先投资于2年以下短久期国债，然后卖出障碍 期权提供额外收益；而Target 15 Distribution ETF目标是年化15%的分红，同样使用短债打底，在卖出期权策略上更 灵活以达到分红目标。 上周三，贝莱德发行一只基于标普500的策略产品，在标普500指数的基础上进行调整使得个股 ...