1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices, raising the valuation of domestic protein meal. On the other hand, the customs' relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has fluctuated greatly recently, lacking certainty, so it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump plans to visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.79 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, with a cumulative export of 10.98 million tons to China this year, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production is 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast and an increase of 0.028 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from February and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores for various indicators such as the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are given, and the overall short - term recommendation is to wait and see [13] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14] - **Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Provide the supply - demand balance tables of global soybeans, US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, Argentine soybeans, global rapeseeds, and Canadian rapeseeds, including data on beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, as well as their环比 and year - on - year changes [15][16][17][18][19][20] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: Present the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [24] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Show the basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [27] - **Inter - month Spread**: Display the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [30] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Present the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [33] 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Include the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [39][42] - **Weather Conditions**: Compare the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same - period average, and provide the precipitation and temperature anomalies of soybean - producing areas [46][49] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Show the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds [56][59][62] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Present the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [65] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Show the monthly export volume and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China [68][71] - **Argentine Soybean Shipment to China**: Show the weekly and cumulative shipments of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [74] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Present the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [79] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Show the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [82] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Display the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [85] 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Show the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [88] - **Farming Profit**: Present the per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly reduced. However, the overall balance sheet is still better than that of the 2024/25 season [10]. - China has increased its procurement of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. Additionally, China may significantly reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%, which is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices [10]. - The current price of protein meal has dropped to the previous low. With many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - China and Canada have reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promises to reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%. As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 30.64 million tons in the current year; among them, 1.22 million tons were exported to China, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 8.12 million tons [10]. - In January, the forecast of the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 425.67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.13 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.48 million tons. The stock - to - use ratio is 29.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.44 percentage points [10]. - In January, the forecast of the US soybean production is 115.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.238 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.05 million tons; the forecast of Brazil's production is 178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.5 million tons; the forecast of Argentina's production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the December forecast and a year - on - year decrease of 2.6 million tons [10]. - As of the week of January 9, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 730,000 tons; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 8.12 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The multi - empty scores of factors such as the US soybean 3 - 5 spread, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and international soybean supply are analyzed. The overall conclusion is that the current protein meal price has dropped to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price** - The report shows the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 through charts [19][20]. - **Basis of the Main Contract** - The report shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 through charts [22][23]. - **Inter - month Spread** - The report shows the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 through charts [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread** - The report shows the spreads between the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract, and between the soybean meal September contract and the rapeseed meal September contract from 2022 to 2026 through charts [28][29]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - The report shows the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 through charts [34][35][37]. - **Weather Conditions** - The report shows the precipitation observation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of previous years through charts. It also provides a summary of the weather conditions in soybean - producing areas as of January 15, including precipitation and temperature anomalies [40][42][44]. - **US Soybean Export Progress** - The report shows the current market - year cumulative signing volume, next - year market - year cumulative signing volume, current market - year export volume to China, and next - market - year export volume to China of US soybeans through charts [50][53][56]. - The report also shows the monthly import volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 through charts [57]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation** - The report shows the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 through charts [59][60]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation** - The report shows the monthly export volume and export volume to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 through charts [62][63]. - **Brazil's Shipment Volume to China** - The report shows the weekly and cumulative shipment volumes of Brazilian soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 through charts [65][66][68]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory Situation** - The report shows the port inventory of soybeans and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 through charts [73][74]. - **Protein Meal Inventory Situation** - The report shows the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 through charts [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit** - The report shows the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 through charts [79][80]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption and Transaction of Protein Meal** - The report shows the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 through charts [83]. - **Breeding Profit** - The report shows the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 through charts [85][86].