1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and the unstable international oil price, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar being mainly driven by the increase in crude oil prices, the view on the sugar price trend is changed to a wait - and - see stance [5]. - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the year - on - year increase in the operating rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is advisable to try to go long on dips. The risk lies in the spillover of the US - Iran incident leading to a global financial crisis [8]. - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal. However, the relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has large fluctuations recently, lacking certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [11]. - For oils, the current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, the crude oil price remains high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, so a bullish view on oils is maintained in the medium term [14]. - For eggs, the overall supply is not in short supply, but the limited number of newly - laid hens leads to a shortage of small eggs. Driven by seasonal stocking, the spot price is relatively strong, but the short - term upside space is also limited. The near - term futures contracts follow the strength, but in the future, attention should be paid to the pressure of falling demand, delayed culling, molting, and an increase in newly - laid hens. Pay attention to the rebound rhythm, be aware of the pressure on the spot and futures prices, hold short positions in the far - end contracts, and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [17]. - For hogs, the slaughter scale is relatively large and the weight is still increasing. The improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as the active storage of frozen products and the concentrated entry of second - fattening hogs to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price trend is still weak. The futures contracts are still at a high premium, but the game pressure under high positions also increases, and the near - term volatility increases. The overall idea is still to short on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, attention should be paid to timely realizing profits [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - In the first half of March, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil used 95.14% of sugarcane for ethanol production, compared with 69.87% in the same period last year [4]. - Consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and the sugar production will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. - From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each month compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons [4]. - As of February, the cumulative sugar production in China was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the single - month sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season had reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181.29 million tons due to the lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand [4]. Strategy Viewpoint In the current situation where crude oil maintains a high - risk premium, the view on the sugar price trend is changed to a wait - and - see stance [5]. Cotton Market Information - Trump publicly announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China and the US are in communication about this, without confirming or denying the specific dates [6]. - From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 tons of processing trade import quotas with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota [6]. - From March 12 to 19, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; among them, the export to China that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons [6]. - As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [6]. - The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; the export forecast remained the same, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, unchanged. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; and China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [6][7]. Strategy Viewpoint Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the year - on - year increase in the operating rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is advisable to try to go long on dips. The risk lies in the spillover of the US - Iran incident leading to a global financial crisis [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - Trump publicly announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China and the US are in communication about this, without confirming or denying the specific dates [10]. - From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among them, the export to China that week was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons [10]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 18.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.99 million tons; and the sample soybean port inventory was 4.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.27 million tons [10]. - The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from the February forecast and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous season. The US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; the Brazilian production forecast was 180 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; the Argentine production forecast was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast. In addition, the US export volume forecast in the March forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal. However, the relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has large fluctuations recently, lacking certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [11]. Oils Market Information - The President of Indonesia said that the country will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year [13]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set the total compliance obligation for biofuels in 2026 at 26.81 billion RINs and in 2027 at 27.02 billion RINs, and required large refineries to bear 70% of the exemption quota [13]. - The President of Indonesia said that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives production enterprises in Indonesia shall not export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security [13]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [13]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - According to MPOB data, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons year - on - year [13]. - As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year [13]. - In the week of March 20, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons [13]. Strategy Viewpoint The current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, the crude oil price remains high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, so a bullish view on oils is maintained in the medium term [14]. Eggs Market Information Yesterday, most egg prices in China fell. The average price in the main producing areas dropped by 0.08 yuan to 3.31 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.15 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao dropped by 0.04 yuan to 3 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the market sales speed mostly slowed down, and industry players mostly held a conservative wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the egg prices in China may be stable in some areas and decline in some areas in the short term [16]. Strategy Viewpoint The overall supply is not in short supply, but the limited number of newly - laid hens leads to a shortage of small eggs. Driven by seasonal stocking, the spot price is relatively strong, but the short - term upside space is also limited. The near - term futures contracts follow the strength, but in the future, attention should be paid to the pressure of falling demand, delayed culling, molting, and an increase in newly - laid hens. Pay attention to the rebound rhythm, be aware of the pressure on the spot and futures prices, hold short positions in the far - end contracts, and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [17]. Hogs Market Information Yesterday, the mainstream hog prices in China fell, with some local areas rising slightly. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.01 yuan to 9.53 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan rose by 0.05 yuan to 9.31 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou rose by 0.08 yuan to 8.77 yuan per kilogram. The overall market supply was abundant, the mentality of second - fattening hog farmers was cautious, and the purchasing sentiment cooled down, providing limited support for hog prices. It is expected that the hog prices will be mainly stable with a weak trend today [19]. Strategy Viewpoint The slaughter scale is relatively large and the weight is still increasing. The improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as the active storage of frozen products and the concentrated entry of second - fattening hogs to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price trend is still weak. The futures contracts are still at a high premium, but the game pressure under high positions also increases, and the near - term volatility increases. The overall idea is still to short on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, attention should be paid to timely realizing profits [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating upwards. Considering the high uncertainty in the Middle East situation, high - running crude oil prices, and the expected increase in biodiesel demand, it is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. - For protein meal, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate. The market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be affected by the Middle East situation and industrial factors, showing an oscillating trend [7]. - The sentiment in the corn market is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling. In the short - term, the price will face callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. - The supply of live pigs remains high, and the pig price is still weak. In the short - term, the price will run weakly; in the medium - term, the downward cycle continues; in the long - term, the pig price is expected to gradually bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - The sentiment in the natural rubber market is warm, and the market will maintain an oscillating trend. The price is mainly driven by the macro - logic, and there are some positive factors on the supply side [11][13]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation. The tight supply of butadiene supports the market, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - The cotton price is running strongly. In the medium - and long - term, both the domestic and international cotton markets are bullish, and in the short - term, the 05 contract will oscillate strongly [15][16]. - The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil. In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [17][18]. - The pulp market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend. The price is restricted by the weak supply - demand of softwood pulp but supported by costs [20][21]. - The double - offset paper market is weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price drags down the market, and in the medium - term, the publishing tender will support the price [22][23]. - The log inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating. The high cost and low inventory support the market, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils [1][6]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks exist, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Indonesia will continue the biodiesel B50 plan, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased in March. The US EPA released renewable fuel obligation targets, increasing the production and consumption of biodiesel. Domestic soybean oil inventory decreased due to refinery maintenance, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased weekly, with expected increased supply [1][6][8]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate upwards. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market expects an increase in US soybean planting area, and the Middle East situation affects oil prices. The renewable fuel obligation targets are in line with expectations, and there are both positive and negative factors for US soybeans. Domestically, oil mills are actively hedging, and the market expects a decrease in soybean crushing volume. Feed enterprises' demand is weak [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling [9]. - **Logic**: Upstream, the warming temperature leads to an increase in the grain - selling rhythm. Downstream, the demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is stable and recovering. The supply - demand pattern is gradually easing, and there is competition from substitute grains [9]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate. In the short - term, there is a risk of callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply remains high, and the pig price is still weak [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the出栏 pressure continues. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction process is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. In the fourth quarter, the price is expected to rise moderately [10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the market is warm [11]. - **Logic**: The market risk preference is improving, and the price is mainly driven by the macro - logic. There are some positive factors on the supply side, and the downstream inventory is relatively optimistic. There is a need for price adjustment seasonally [13]. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation [14]. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene supports the market. Although the upward momentum has cooled, the supply shortage situation remains, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - **Outlook**: The market will follow the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [14][15]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price is running strongly [15]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of cotton in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The overall fundamentals are positive [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. In the medium - and long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after callbacks [16][17]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil [17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the price will oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. In the medium - and long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect Brazil's production and tighten the global sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. In the short - term, the price range is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. In the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [18]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - **Logic**: The consumption of hardwood pulp is strong, and that of softwood pulp is weak. The demand will decrease seasonally, and the supply pressure is high. However, the cost provides support [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. The price is restricted by the supply - demand but supported by costs [21][22]. 3.1.10. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakly oscillating [22]. - **Logic**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The publishing tender in April and May will support the price, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [23]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and the price will run in the range of 4000 - 4300 yuan/ton [23]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The port inventory is low, and the supply is affected by geopolitical factors, resulting in high costs and low supply. The demand has some resilience, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. The price is supported by the cost but faces hedging pressure [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 No specific data information is provided in the given content for detailed summary. 3.3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are provided. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.01% to 2829.64, the industrial products index increased by 1.10% to 2584.88, and the agricultural products index increased by 0.04% on March 30, 2026, with a 5 - day decline of 0.42%, a 1 - month increase of 0.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.12% [185][187].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and unstable international oil prices, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar being mainly driven by rising crude oil prices, the view on sugar price trends turns to wait - and - see [5] - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the current increase in the operating rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [8] - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal. However, the relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is negative for protein meal prices. Recently, protein meal prices have large fluctuations and lack certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [11] - For oils and fats, the current price trend of oils and fats mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before the end of the incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports. So, a bullish view on oils and fats is maintained in the medium term [14] - For eggs, the overall supply is not in short supply, but the limited number of newly - laid hens makes small eggs in short supply. Seasonal stocking boosts the spot price, but the short - term upside is limited. The near - month futures follow the strength, but in the future, attention should be paid to the pressure of falling demand, delayed culling, molting, and an increase in newly - laid hens. Hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [17] - For pigs, the slaughter scale is large and the weight is still increasing, and the improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as active frozen product warehousing and concentrated entry of second - fattening to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price is still weak. The futures contracts have high premiums, but the game pressure under high positions also increases, and the near - end fluctuations increase. The overall idea is to short on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, pay attention to realizing profits in time [20] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: In the first half of March, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil used 95.14% of sugarcane for ethanol production, compared with 69.87% in the same period last year. It is predicted that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and the sugar output will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous year to 40.3 million tons. From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared with the same period last year. As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, an increase of 2.49 million tons year - on - year. Thailand's sugar output in the 2025/26 season as of March 15, 2026, reached 10.27 million tons, an increase of 545,000 tons year - on - year. The ISO predicted in late February that the global sugar output in the 2025/26 season would be 181.29 million tons [4] Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15. From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The NDRC issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports with preferential tariff rates. From March 12 to 19, the US current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons. As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The predicted US cotton output in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's output forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's output forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's output increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [6][7] Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Trump announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15. From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 27, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 18.14 million tons, an increase of 2.99 million tons year - on - year; the sample soybean port inventory was 4.83 million tons, an increase of 2.27 million tons year - on - year. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The predicted US soybean output was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted Brazilian output was 180 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted Argentine output was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction. In the March prediction, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [10] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year. The US EPA set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, and required large - scale refiners to bear 70% of the exemption quota. Indonesia requires coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises not to export related products before meeting domestic demand. The Indonesian government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons year - on - year. In February, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. In the week of March 20, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats in the sample data was 1.95 million tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons year - on - year [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in China fell. The average price in the main producing areas dropped slightly to 3.39 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.04 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the market sales slowed down in most cases, and industry players mostly held a conservative wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term egg prices in China may be partly stable and partly fall [16] Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the mainstream domestic pig prices were stable, with partial slight increases and decreases. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 9.54 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 9.26 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou remained at 8.69 yuan per kilogram. Near the beginning and end of the month, the slaughter volume of the breeding side was limited, which supported the pig prices. However, the current slaughter volume of the slaughter side was average and showed no improvement, having limited impact on pig prices. It is expected that today's pig prices will be mainly stable [19]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran and unstable international oil prices, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar driven by rising oil prices, the view on sugar price trends turns to wait - and - see [5]. - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the increase in the opening rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal, while the relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative. Overall, the price of protein meal fluctuates greatly and lacks certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [12]. - For oils, the current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran event. Before the event ends, with high oil prices and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, the supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. For the futures, hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. - For pigs, the supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. For the futures, consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: - The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop from 43.5 million tons to 40.3 million tons due to high energy prices [4]. - From January to February 2026, China's sugar imports increased by 440,000 tons compared with the same period last year [4]. - In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production was 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait - and - see due to the unstable international oil prices [5]. Cotton - **Market Information**: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [7]. - From January to February 2026, China's cotton imports increased by 110,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and cotton yarn imports increased by 80,000 tons [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports [7]. - From March 12 to 19, the US current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; exports to China were 3,300 tons, and the cumulative exports to China were 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons [7]. - As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill opening rate was 78.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 percentage points [7]. - The USDA predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the February prediction and 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term positive for US cotton prices, and consider going long on dips in the medium term [9]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [11]. - From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; exports to China were 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the February prediction and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term positive for US soybean prices, but the relaxation of Brazilian soybean import inspection standards is negative. Short - term wait - and - see [12]. Oils - **Market Information**: - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, and large refineries are required to bear 70% of the exemption quota [14]. - The President of Indonesia said that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives producers in Indonesia cannot export related products before meeting domestic demand [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons and basically the same as the same period last year [14]. - In the week of March 20, the domestic sample data of the three major oils inventory was 1.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bullish in the medium term due to the US - Iran event and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were partially stable, with some low - price areas rising and high - price areas falling. The supply of large - sized eggs in the production area is abundant, while the supply of small - sized eggs is still tight. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the procurement volume may increase slightly, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. Hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: - Over the weekend, the decline of domestic pig prices slowed down, with some rising, some falling and some stable. At the end of the month, the reduction of supply by some farmers and the support of second - fattening purchases made pig prices run strongly. Some farmers are waiting and seeing, while some are clearing inventory [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. Consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21].

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices, raising the valuation of domestic protein meal. On the other hand, the customs' relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has fluctuated greatly recently, lacking certainty, so it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump plans to visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.79 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, with a cumulative export of 10.98 million tons to China this year, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production is 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast and an increase of 0.028 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from February and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores for various indicators such as the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are given, and the overall short - term recommendation is to wait and see [13] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14] - **Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Provide the supply - demand balance tables of global soybeans, US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, Argentine soybeans, global rapeseeds, and Canadian rapeseeds, including data on beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, as well as their环比 and year - on - year changes [15][16][17][18][19][20] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: Present the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [24] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Show the basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [27] - **Inter - month Spread**: Display the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [30] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Present the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [33] 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Include the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [39][42] - **Weather Conditions**: Compare the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same - period average, and provide the precipitation and temperature anomalies of soybean - producing areas [46][49] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Show the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds [56][59][62] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Present the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [65] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Show the monthly export volume and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China [68][71] - **Argentine Soybean Shipment to China**: Show the weekly and cumulative shipments of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [74] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Present the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [79] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Show the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [82] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Display the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [85] 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Show the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [88] - **Farming Profit**: Present the per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The global economic growth outlook is affected by the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, with potential impacts on inflation and economic growth. The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a significant impact on various futures markets [20]. - Different futures markets have different trends and influencing factors. For example, the stock index futures are affected by the decline of US stocks and global risk - preference changes; the bond futures are influenced by the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the central bank's monetary policy; the agricultural product futures are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies; the black metal futures are affected by overseas sentiment, raw material supply, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal futures are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors; the shipping and carbon market futures are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy factors; the energy - chemical futures are affected by the negotiation between the US and Iran, supply - demand balance, and energy price fluctuations. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of US stocks affects market sentiment. The stock index fell across the board on Thursday, and the futures contracts also declined. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and short - term indexes are expected to continue to fluctuate [20][21][22]. - **Bond Futures**: The risk preference in the market is volatile. The bond futures closed higher on Thursday. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity keeps the market funds stable. The future direction of the bond market may be determined by whether the energy price increase will be transmitted to the domestic core inflation [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has increased disturbance factors, and the price shows a wide - range shock. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and the price may decline in the future [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be strong due to the reduction of sugar production expectations in major producing countries. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international price slightly, with a trend of being strong [30][32][33]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The oil and fat market maintains a high - level shock. The supply of palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to decrease in March, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is still high. The US biodiesel policy is yet to be determined [34][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The wheat auction price has decreased, and the corn futures price shows a weak shock. The deep - processing demand has increased, but the supply pressure still exists [37][40][41]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has increased, and the price has generally declined. The feed price has a greater impact on the breeding profit, and the overall inventory of hogs is still large [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is strong, and the futures price shows a strong shock. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil factory still has a profit [45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand has recovered, and the egg price is mainly stable. The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and it is not recommended to chase the increase [50][51]. - **Apples**: The demand for apples is good, and the price is firm. The inventory of cold - storage apples is low, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited [52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and shows a shock - strengthening trend. The supply in this year is basically determined, and there is a rumor of production reduction in the new year. The demand in the downstream market is good [55][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and the steel market lacks a trend - type market. The demand for steel is still recovering, but the export is affected by the US - Iran conflict [59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and the trend is not obvious. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the geopolitical situation needs to be closely monitored [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is still disturbed, and the ore price is running at a high level. The market rumors are numerous, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at a high level [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by the large - scale fluctuation of crude oil, the price is running at a high - level shock. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are in a positive feedback, but they are easily affected by energy prices [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market maintains a shock. The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate, and the risk of war escalation still exists. The price is affected by factors such as energy prices and central bank gold sales [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The precious metals are in a weak shock. The market is concerned about the inflation caused by energy prices, and the unilateral position risk is high. Platinum can be considered for short - term long positions, and palladium is expected to follow weakly [74][75]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. The price direction is not clear [78]. - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the mining policy in Guinea and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The supply of bauxite may be reduced, and the price of alumina is affected by market sentiment [80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict has uncertainty. The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East may be affected by raw material shortages [83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical situation is uncertain. The supply of scrap aluminum is restricted, and the downstream demand is weak [87]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the macro and capital emotions. The basic situation at home and abroad supports the zinc price, but the macro uncertainty still exists [91]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level shock. The domestic secondary lead smelting is in a loss, but the consumption may improve in the peak season [92]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The supply - demand gap in March has narrowed, and the cost support is strong, but the price is still in a shock [95]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by the cost, it follows the nickel price. The chromium - based raw materials are rising, and the inventory is being reduced, but the supply may be loose in April [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price reaches the upper limit of the range, and it is recommended to participate in short - positions lightly. The supply - demand situation has no obvious change, and the industry meeting may have an impact on the price [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and a short - selling idea is recommended. The production in March has increased, and the inventory may accumulate in April [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price to run at a high level. The supply in April may be affected by the reduction of imports from Zimbabwe, and the price has both support and pressure [103]. - **Tin**: The US - Iran peace negotiation is in doubt, and the tin price is under pressure. The Middle East situation affects the helium export, which may be transmitted to the global semiconductor supply chain [106]. Shipping and Carbon Market - **Container Shipping**: The US postpones the energy strike against Iran for 10 days, and the spot price is expected to be reduced. The near - month and far - month contracts have different trends, and the geopolitical risk needs to be vigilant [108][110][111]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The bad weather in Western Australia causes concerns about ore shipments, and the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory supports the rent of large ships to rise. The market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the shipping situation in the Middle East [112][114][115]. - **Carbon Market**: The trading in the Chinese carbon market is dull, and the EU carbon market has the March contract delivery. The carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a shock - strengthening trend, and the Chinese carbon price may be affected by factors such as policy and demand [116][117][120]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation prospect is still unclear. The supply gap still exists, and the international oil price maintains high volatility [123]. - **Asphalt**: The supply contraction exists, and attention should be paid to the near - end oil price fluctuation risk. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the social inventory is high [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur prices should pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and the start - up rhythm of high - sulfur peak - season demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tight [127][129]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates around the geopolitical situation. The external market price of LPG has fallen, and the domestic price is affected by the negotiation situation [131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply of LNG in Qatar is interrupted, and the market supply gap is gradually accumulating [133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply has an expected unplanned reduction, and PTA enterprises are forced to reduce production. The PX device is in the traditional maintenance season, and the downstream enterprises are reducing production [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the price is in a shock - strengthening trend [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is revised down. The domestic and overseas production is affected, and the 4 - month import volume is expected to be significantly reduced [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The sales of short - fiber factories are differentiated, and it short - term follows the trend of polyester raw materials [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously being reduced. The production load of bottle - chip factories has increased, and the inventory is being reduced during the procurement peak season [148]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline this cycle. The cost increases, and the supply risk increases. The domestic and foreign production is affected, and the demand is gradually recovering [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of polyolefins of the two major oil companies accumulates. The market price is in a shock - strengthening trend, but the downstream demand is not strong [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is slightly decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is in a loss [156][158]. - **PVC**: It is mainly in a shock. The global supply of PVC is expected to be reduced, and the domestic supply also has a contraction expectation [159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a high - level shock. The supply is reduced, the demand growth is tested, and the price is expected to be weakly shocked [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a shock - decline. The inventory in the middle - stream is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [164][166]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range shock. The production in Iran is reduced, the domestic import is expected to be reduced, and the supply - demand situation is changing [167][169]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The domestic production is at a high level, the international supply is tight, and the price is affected by policies [172]. - **Pulp**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The supply exceeds the demand, and the demand support is insufficient [176][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market is under pressure. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance, and the price is weak [183]. - **Logs**: The market is generally strong. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The export of Vietnamese rubber has changed, and the domestic tire production line is increasing [187][190]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The market situation is similar to that of natural rubber, and the production of the tire production line is increasing [191][194].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US intends to cease fire for a month and propose a "15 - item condition" peace - negotiation plan to Iran, which leads to a significant drop in international oil prices. This situation is bearish for the prices of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar, grains, and oils. The strategies for these commodities are to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3][10][13]. - The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [6][7]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The US's cease - fire intention and the decline in international oil prices are bearish for raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices. The strategy is to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to 12th, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among them, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports to China of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.6%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [5]. - **Strategy**: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips. The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bullish for cotton prices [6][7]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The US soybean planting area forecast was raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with the current - year cumulative soybean exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among them, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons; the soybean crushing plant operating rate was 54.22%, a 14.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Brazil's production forecast was 180 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Argentina's production forecast was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast. In the March forecast, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bearish for grain prices. The customs' relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is also bearish for meal prices. The subsequent price trend depends on the soybean import arrival rhythm and the progress of the US - Iran event. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [10]. Oils - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. The Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data showed that in January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and an 860,000 - ton increase year - on - year. According to the MPOB data, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 90,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 130,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.19 million - ton increase year - on - year. AmSpec data showed that from March 1st to 20th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.166 million tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period of the previous month. ITS data showed that from March 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.191 million tons, a 38.1% increase from the same period of the previous month. According to the Indian Refiners Association (SEA) data, as of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a 120,000 - ton increase from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 20th, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a 95,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [12]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation leads to a significant drop in international oil prices, which is bearish for oil prices. It is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 3.29 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 3.1 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.18 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was average, and the participation sentiment in some areas improved. It is expected that the short - term national egg prices may be stable or increase [15]. - **Strategy**: Although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally continued to decline, with small increases in some low - price areas. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 9.58 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 9.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.04 yuan to 8.91 yuan per kilogram. The market transaction enthusiasm was average, and it was difficult for farmers to sell pigs. It is expected that some regions may still have the intention to reduce prices today, and some low - price areas in the south may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oscillating**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, sugar, pulp, double - gum paper, logs - **Oscillating weakly**: Live pigs - **Oscillating strongly**: Cotton - **Oscillating strongly in the short - term**: Synthetic rubber 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and offers corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [1][5][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats oscillate and rebound. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to high - level oscillation of oil prices. The US biodiesel policy and the planting area report from the US Department of Agriculture are to be released. In the domestic market, the shutdown of oil mills reduces soybean oil inventory, while demand is weak. For palm oil, production reduction and export growth in Malaysia boost market sentiment, but high prices and the Middle East conflict may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has decreased weekly [5]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at phased lows [6]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market has weak supply and demand, and the double - meal disk oscillates. - **Logic**: Internationally, the expected Chinese policy - based procurement and the upcoming release of the US EPA's biodiesel quota boost the US soybean futures price. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and high inventory may limit the upward space. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price rises due to the cost - side drive of the US soybean price. The spot market has a game between oil mills and feed mills [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Rapeseed meal generally follows soybean meal but is weaker [7]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Corn continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The temperature rise accelerates the supply of damp grain, and the increased supply of old wheat may put pressure on the market. However, the supply pressure is not significant, and the downstream demand is stable. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and increased marginally [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Pay attention to the callback pressure caused by the increase in damp grain supply and the expected release of brown rice. In the medium - term, corn is expected to be bullish [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply increases, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the high inventory of sows in 2025 leads to a large number of piglet births in 2026, resulting in high pressure on hog slaughter. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased since the second half of 2025, but the increase in sow productivity may offset the impact. The current process of capacity reduction is not smooth [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [2][10]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere is warm, and the disk continues to rebound. - **Logic**: The non - escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the high - level operation of synthetic rubber drive the rebound of natural rubber. The supply in overseas producing areas may be affected by the Middle East conflict, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East are affected. Seasonally, there is an adjustment demand [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. If there is no further fermentation of events, wait for the opportunity to buy on dips [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The disk breaks through the 18,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene is strengthened. The disruption of the supply of key raw materials such as naphtha due to the Middle East conflict leads to the reduction of butadiene supply. Even if the cost of raw materials is higher than that of downstream products, the price is still likely to rise as long as the geopolitical situation is tense [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term. If the oil price continues to rise, the disk will remain strong [13][14]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are good, and there is strong support below. - **Logic**: The domestic cotton processing and inspection work is completed, the commercial inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is good. In the long - term, the expected reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 provides an upward drive, but the specific policy details are to be announced [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. In the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [14]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The short - term main theme is that the sugar price oscillates with the oil price. - **Logic**: The short - term oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict leads to the oscillation of the sugar price. In the long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect the Brazilian new - season production and tighten the global sugar supply [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. There may be an upward drive in the long - term [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp price declined yesterday, and the pressure still exists. - **Logic**: The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the 4 - 6 month period usually decreases seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support for the price [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4950 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: Weakly oscillating. - **Logic**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have no obvious changes. The resumption of some maintenance devices increases the industry's operating rate, but the profit of paper mills is poor, and the production increase is limited. In the short - and medium - term, the demand in the peak season and the paper mills' profit - repair demand may support the price, but in the long - term, the loose supply - demand situation limits the price increase [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2026 [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Strongly oscillating. - **Logic**: The price of logs is mainly driven by cost and supply contraction. The high oil price increases the shipping cost, and the New Zealand suppliers reduce production and raise prices. The low inventory and strong demand in the downstream lead to a supply - demand mismatch [22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with strong support below and obvious hedging pressure above [22][23].