薛鹤翔、汪洋（薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） + 摘要 国内宏观：国内宏观经济在消费与产业政策领域呈现出鲜明特征。消费端，十一假期出行数据反映出旅游 市场复杂态势。出行节奏提前，但整体出行强度逊于五一假期，显示居民出行决策更趋理性，可能与假期 安排、天气等因素有关。在旅游结构上，传统景点热度部分回落，而特色旅游如"省际交界游""边境游"异 军突起，表明消费者对旅游体验的个性化需求增长，旅游市场正在向多元化、特色化转型。免签范围扩大 刺激出境游增长，也反映出国内居民对国际旅游需求的释放以及国家在旅游开放政策上的积极成效，这有 助于带动旅游消费及相关服务业发展。 国外宏观：国庆长假期间，美国9月ADP就业、服务业PMI弱于市场预期。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大幅 低于市场预期的新增5.1万人，年度基准调整对其构成了4.3万人的影响，但就业市场趋势仍为走弱；美国9 月ISM服务业PMI回落至50，其中商业活动、新订单指数分别回落至49.9、50.4。 贵金属：国庆期间黄金持续创历史新高并突破4000美元/盎司，整体上黄金正处于一个历史级别的长期牛之 中，核心驱动包括对美国债务可持续性 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-09 假日期间外盘变化不大，品种多观望 油脂：等待进一步信息指引，或继续震荡盘整 蛋白粕：多空并存，延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 生猪：节后需求转淡，猪价延续弱势 天然橡胶：外盘波动有限，关注节后盘面情绪 合成橡胶：盘面延续区间震荡 棉花：棉价延续偏弱走势 白糖：糖价预计延续低位震荡整理 纸浆：假日期间无重点变化，纸浆延续弱势格局 双胶纸：假期交投偏弱，节后现货仍有下行压力 原木：弱现实与旺季预计博弈，关注下游需求兑现 【异动品种】 玉米观点：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 信息：根据Mysteel，锦州港平舱价为2300元/吨，环比变化0元/吨。国内 玉米均价2350元/吨，环比变化-2元/吨。主力合约收盘价2178元/吨，环 比变化+0.6%。 逻辑：节日期间，随着新粮逐步放量，价格整体偏弱运 行。锦州港晨间集港量在假期期间维持高位400-700车范围。节日前期， 华北深加工门前早间剩余车量明显增加，节中一度攀升至近1800车高位。 伴随供应增加，锦州港新粮收购价从节前的2200元以上快速跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural and related commodity markets, providing short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each commodity. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be in a range - bound state, and others with potential for short - term rebounds [1][6][8]. Summary by Commodity 1. Livestock - **Pig**: In the short term, the planned pig出栏量 in September increased by 4% month - on - month, and the completion rate was 64.6%. There is still significant pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of pigs for sale is expected to increase in Q4. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy of reducing 1 million sows is implemented, the supply pressure will ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage strategies [1][8]. 2. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The outlook is that soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate, while rapeseed oil will oscillate with a stronger bias. The US soybean harvest is normal, but the good - quality rate is decreasing. The domestic soybean import volume will seasonally decline, and the soybean oil inventory will peak. The palm oil inventory accumulation in September may be limited, and the rapeseed oil inventory will decline. Attention should be paid to trade relations, supply in producing areas, and overseas biodiesel demand [6]. 3. Protein Meals - **Protein Meals**: The outlook is that both soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. Internationally, the US crop harvest is progressing well, and Brazil's sowing has a record - fast start. Domestically, there is support from pre - holiday stocking, but the inventory pressure is large. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Attention should be paid to the impact of pig "anti - involution" on sentiment [6][7]. 4. Grains - **Corn/Starch**: New grain is gradually coming onto the market. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, but there may be a small rebound before the holiday. In the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [7][8]. 5. Rubbers - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are supportive, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The market has a strong spot, is de - stocking, and the basis is narrowing. However, there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and domestic social inventory changes [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will continue to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has cooled, but there is no continuous upward driving force [12]. 6. Fibers - **Cotton**: The medium - term outlook is weak - side oscillation. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the 25/26 season will bring supply pressure. Before the holiday, the price fluctuation will narrow. After the holiday, as new cotton is listed, the downward driving force will increase. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase price and trade negotiations [12]. 7. Sweeteners - **Sugar**: In the short term (around National Day), it will oscillate, and the decline may slow down with a potential for a rebound. In Q4, as new sugar is listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure will increase, and the price is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Attention should be paid to production data in Brazil's central - southern region [13][14]. 8. Pulps and Papers - **Pulp**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The downstream paper production peak is coming to an end, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. Although there is support from the delivery price, there is no clear upward logic [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is not strong, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force in the short term. The long - term outlook is weak [17]. 9. Logs - **Logs**: The market will oscillate around 800 before the holiday. The spot price is stable, the inventory is being de - stocked, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. However, the delivery situation has a negative impact on the market, and the selling hedging pressure is large [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current high copper prices and the impact of various economic factors on commodity markets, including government policies, production targets, and market trends in different sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting project capital, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [1]. - From January to August, state-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 539,620.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while total profits decreased by 2.7% to 27,937.2 billion yuan [1]. - The domestic commodity futures market saw a general decline, particularly in energy and chemical products, indicating a bearish trend in these sectors [1]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices rose by 1.59% in the night session, with a significant reduction in China's copper production growth target for 2025-2026 from 5% to 1.5% [2][21]. - The ongoing tight supply of copper concentrate and high smelting profits are expected to support copper prices in the long term, especially following mining incidents in Indonesia [2][21]. Group 3: Stock Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight increases, with the non-bank financial sector leading gains, while coal stocks lagged [3][12]. - The financing balance decreased by 193.55 billion yuan to 24,080.56 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach among investors as the market enters a consolidation phase after a prolonged rally [3][12]. Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - The SC crude oil price fell by 2.87%, influenced by Russia's export bans on diesel and gasoline amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][14]. - The US labor department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, suggesting a resilient labor market, which may impact oil demand [4][14]. Group 5: Agricultural Products and Commodities - The article highlights fluctuations in agricultural commodities, with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and derivatives affecting global markets [28]. - The domestic market anticipates increased supply due to this policy change, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [28].

Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In the first eight months, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 46,929.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1] - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises turned from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month to a growth of 20.4% [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit growth of 7.2%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the oil and petrochemical sectors leading gains, while the computer sector lagged [2][10] - The market turnover was 2.17 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 132.88 billion yuan to 24,274.11 billion yuan [2][10] - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a prolonged uptrend, with differing views among investors [2][10] Group 3: Oil Market Developments - SC night trading rose by 1.21%, with Russia implementing partial bans on diesel exports and extending gasoline export bans [3][12] - The U.S. reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a tightening labor market [3][12] - The International Energy Agency noted a significant acceleration in the decline of oil and gas field production globally [3][12] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Market - Glass futures have retreated, with market supply and demand slowly recovering [4][16] - Glass production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.42 million boxes, while soda ash inventory fell by 54,000 tons [4][16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, raising positive expectations for the glass industry [4][16] Group 5: Agricultural Sector Developments - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized support for Xinjiang to enhance grain production and improve agricultural efficiency [8] - The focus is on increasing cotton production advantages and developing high-quality specialty products [8] Group 6: Shipping Index Trends - The European shipping index experienced fluctuations, with the SCFI European line dropping to 971 USD/TEU [28] - The market anticipates price stabilization signals from shipping alliances, with potential price increases expected in October [28]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-23 粮农认卖情绪偏高，玉米突破前低 油脂： 马棕9月产量预期环降，继续关注油脂下方支撑有效性 蛋白粕： 节前备货下游点价，盘面区间下沿反弹 玉米/淀粉： 粮农认卖情绪偏高，期货突破前低 生猪： 供给充足，价格弱势 橡胶： 数据修正带来利多情绪，关注持续性 合成橡胶： 盘面维持区间震荡走势 棉花： 棉价提前交易新作宽松预期，连续向下调整 白糖： 基本面未见好转，糖价向下寻找支撑 纸浆： 现货弱势不改，纸浆维持震荡走势 双胶纸：窄幅震荡运行，关注出版社招标 原木： 盘面窄幅波动，区间操作为主 【异动品种】 ⽟⽶观点：粮农认卖情绪偏⾼，期货突破前低 逻辑：今日国内现货走势继续分化，东北深加工到货量快速增加，价格大 幅下跌；华北深加工涨多跌少，根据到货量灵活调价；港口装船需求较 大，价格偏强运行。供应端，吉林、内蒙古、黑龙江西部目前暂无新季玉 米上市，新粮上市主要集中于黑龙江东部，由于开秤价格偏高，粮农认卖 情绪偏高，玉米收购价较上周五普遍下调。华北近期持续降雨，潮粮上量 不足，粮质偏弱。存陈粮相对偏紧，价格有企稳回升的苗头。 ...

Monetary Policy - The central bank emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, implementing moderate easing without immediate adjustments to short-term policies [1] - As of the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The LPR remained unchanged in September, while the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts have influenced market risk appetite positively [1] Key Commodities Oil - Oil prices are under pressure due to recent weather impacts in Malaysia, with palm oil production expected to decrease by 8.05% for the period of September 1-15, 2025 [2][27] - Exports of Malaysian palm oil are projected to decline by 24.7% during the same period, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the oil sector [2][27] Gold - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, gold prices have rebounded, reaching new highs [3][18] - Strong retail sales data from the U.S. and ongoing expectations for further rate cuts have sustained bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][18] Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have risen, with significant trading volumes, indicating a phase of consolidation after prolonged gains [4][10] - The financing balance decreased by 4.15 billion yuan to 23.816 trillion yuan, reflecting a divergence in market sentiment [4][10] Domestic News - The implementation of the "9.24" policy package has strengthened the foundation for stability in China's capital markets, with significant increases in trading volumes and new account openings [6] - As of September 18, the financing and securities balance reached 24.024 trillion yuan, with daily trading volumes in the A-share market exceeding 3 trillion yuan multiple times this year [6] Industry News - The State Council is prioritizing the establishment of national standards for pre-prepared dishes, aiming to enhance consumer rights and choices [8] Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with current freight rates declining significantly, indicating a competitive pricing environment among shipping companies [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term range - bound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic supply pressure is significant, with ship purchases covering until December, and soybean inventory at a record high. The cost side lacks clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the general direction of selling on rallies. However, due to the relatively low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [9][10][11] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans fluctuated this week, and the global soybean supply pressure has not significantly eased. Brazil is continuously expanding its planting area, and there is no strong growth engine on the demand side. The Brazilian soybean premium was slightly lowered this week. The market expected that the China - US negotiations this week might involve US soybean imports, but the announcement of the leaders' call on Friday night did not mention it. US soybeans fell more than 2% in after - hours trading. Looking ahead, the valuation of US soybeans is relatively low. If China - US soybean trade returns to normal, the Brazilian soybean price may still have a slight downward space compared to previous years. The rebound of US soybeans and the decline of the Brazilian premium may offset each other. Coupled with the expected decline in US soybean yield and trading related to the Brazilian planting season, the space for further decline in China's soybean import cost is limited, but the upside is also restricted by the lack of a significant decline in supply [9] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: Domestic soybean meal spot was weak this week, with stable basis, and the futures market declined following the cost. Domestic trading was average, and pick - up was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.42 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of September 16, institutional statistics showed that the ship purchases were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.20 million tons in August, 8.76 million tons in September, and 8.26 million tons in October. The current ship - purchase progress indicates that China's soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the current large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the market may have stocked up in advance for the Double Festival. The domestic soybean - based basis has certain support under the strong pick - up. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will first see a decline in crushing profit due to the expectation of US soybean imports, then the soybean import cost will stabilize after the trading of Brazilian price cuts and US soybean rebounds ends, and then it will rebound from the bottom during the South American planting season, and the subsequent market will depend on the development of the South American planting season [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. The current domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may lead to a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the direction of selling on rallies, but due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [11] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong; the basis of the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal; the price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal; and the fund positions of US soybeans and soybean meal, all sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [17][20][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate from 2021 to 2025, sourced from NASS and the research center of WK Futures [30] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report also presents charts related to precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and the climate in South America, sourced from NOAA and the research center of WK Futures [33][35] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows charts of the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [49] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: The report shows charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China, sourced from customs, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [52] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: The report shows charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [54] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [58] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [61] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: The report shows charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [63] 3.5 Demand Side - The report shows charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, as well as the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and white - feather broilers, sourced from MYSTEEL, WIND, and the research center of WK Futures [65]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced overall weak fluctuations with significant differentiation among varieties on September 19 [1] - The industrial silicon market saw a notable increase, leading the commodity market with a rise of over 3.6% due to tightening supply [1][3] - The shipping market, particularly the European shipping index, faced a sharp decline of over 6%, marking it as the worst performer in the commodity market [1][5] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Analysis - Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.62% on September 19, supported by a decrease in supply, with a daily increase of over 26,000 contracts [3] - The national industrial silicon production is estimated at approximately 84,000 tons this week, down from 85,100 tons the previous week, indicating a continued decline [3] - Concerns about production cuts in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan have increased, with some companies planning to reduce output after the peak water season [3] Group 3: Protein Meal Market - The protein meal market saw a collective rebound, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising by 2.15% and soybean meal increasing by 0.43% [4] - The domestic soybean meal market shows strong bottom support, while supply bottlenecks in rapeseed are limiting the downside potential for meal prices [4] Group 4: Shipping Market Dynamics - The European shipping index faced significant downward pressure, with the main contract dropping 6% due to increased pressure on airlines to secure cargo amid a shipping off-season [5] - The current shipping market sentiment is pessimistic, influenced by a lack of sufficient supply reduction compared to the previous year [5] - Despite the current downturn, there are expectations that the decline in shipping rates may slow down after the National Day holiday, with hopes for a rebound in cargo volume towards the end of the year [5] Group 5: Polyester Chain Weakness - The polyester chain products, including PTA and PX, collectively weakened, with both experiencing declines of over 2% [6] - The demand for downstream products like bottle flakes is transitioning into an off-season, contributing to the overall weakness in the polyester market [6] - The continued low international oil prices and a nearly 2% drop in domestic crude oil prices are exerting additional pressure on the PX and PTA markets [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating Strongly [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating [20] 2. Report's Core View - Most agricultural products showed a downward trend on September 19, 2025. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, weather, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. The market trends of different products vary, including oscillations, oscillations with an upward or downward bias [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Different Varieties - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about the US biodiesel policy are rising, increasing the downward pressure on oil prices. The market is affected by factors such as US soybean conditions, palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory situation in China. It is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the double - meal followed the market decline. Internationally, factors such as US soybean conditions, South American sowing progress, and CFTC positions affect the market. Domestically, there are issues of inventory accumulation and demand changes. It is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The current price is stable with a slight downward trend, and the supply and demand situation is affected by new grain listing and other factors. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. - **Live Pigs**: Before the festival, inventory is continuously reduced, and the supply and demand of live pigs are loose. In the short term, supply is abundant, and in the long term, the impact of capacity - reduction policies needs to be observed. It is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to negative sentiment, the rubber price dropped significantly. However, the fundamentals are still relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions during the callback in September, and the short - term trend is expected to oscillate strongly [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakening of natural rubber dragged down synthetic rubber. The price is in the range of 11300 - 12300, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. - **Cotton**: After the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton declined under the bearish commodity atmosphere. In the short term, the callback space is limited, and the downward pressure will increase after the large - scale listing of new cotton. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. - **Sugar**: Due to the overall bearish commodity atmosphere, the sugar price declined. In the long term, the new season's supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; in the short term, it will oscillate downward to find support [16]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and it maintains an oscillating trend. The current supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as the effectiveness of price increases in the US dollar market and seasonal demand. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and it runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is recommended to operate in the range of 4000 - 4500. It is expected to oscillate [18]. - **Logs**: With the adjustment of commodities, logs oscillate weakly. The current market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. It is expected that the price may stop falling and stabilize in September [20]. 3.2 Commodity Index Information - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all declined, with declines of 0.94%, 1.04%, and 1.06% respectively. The agricultural product index declined by 0.42% on that day, with a 5 - day decline of 1.16%, a 1 - month decline of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.24% [178][180].