报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：短期调整不改慢牛趋势 据证券时报，近期股市回调，大量资金借道 ETF 越跌越买、逆市加仓。近一周以 来（11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日），全市场股票型 ETF 获得超 700 亿元资金净流 入，仅 11 月 21 日便有超 400 亿元资金借道 ETF"抄底"。多家基金公司认为， 美联储降息预期下降、AI 泡沫担忧升温等外部因素是近期市场回调的主因，不 过，在国内科技产业和"反内卷"政策的支持下，中国资产"慢牛"仍然可期。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 股指：美国三大指数反弹，上一交易日股指大幅回落，有色金属和电力设备 板块领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 20 日融资余额减少 59.39 亿元至 24743.85 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板 块是长期方向。11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、 事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、小盘 股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性信号进一步明 朗前，大盘价值仍可能阶段性占优。临近年底，资 ...

首席点评： 短期调整不改慢牛趋势 据证券时报，近期股市回调，大量资金借道 ETF 越跌越买、逆市加仓。近一周以来（ 11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日），全市场 股票型 ETF 获得超 700 亿元资金净流入，仅 11 月 21 日便有超 400 亿元资金借道 ETF "抄底"。多家基金公司认为，美联储 降息预期下降、 AI 泡沫担忧升温等外部因素是近期市场回调的主因，不过，在国内科技产业和"反内卷"政策的支持下，中 国资产"慢牛"仍然可期。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 股指：美国三大指数反弹，上一交易日股指大幅回落，有色金属和电力设备板块领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金 方面， 11 月 20 日融资余额减少 59.39 亿元至 24743.85 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长期方 向。 11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科 技业绩落地、小盘股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性信号进一步明朗前，大盘价值仍可能 阶段性占优。临近年底，资金相对谨慎，市场风格相较三季度也更为均衡。我们认为在经济 ...

蛋白粕周报 2025/11/22 南美播种顺利施压盘面 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 03 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆：本周美豆触及1170美分/蒲成本位置后开始回调，受制于全球大豆供应下调幅度有限，全球大豆库销比仍处高位。巴西升贴水报 价本周持续小幅下调，国内大豆到港成本下跌。截至11月21日，美豆1月合约报1126.5美分/蒲，巴西1月升贴水报价为145美分/蒲。11月 USDA预报再度调低全球大豆新作产量约400万吨，主要是印度、乌克兰、美国的大豆产量被下调。经过11月的下调后，USDA预估25/26年度 全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平，同时，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增。全球大豆预测年度库销比从2024年10月的33%落 回到目前的28.94%，这为全球大豆提供了底部支撑，但因为同比仍较高，尚不足以产生CBOT大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情。 国内双粕：本周国内豆粕现货震荡，基 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：A 股再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：消息扰动下，债市表现分化 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 21 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：利多带动有限 粕类继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续震荡 国内糖价震荡略涨 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货略有回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：现货价格高位回调，盘面偏弱运行 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：美国非农信号不一 金银延续震荡 16 | | --- | | 铜：短期关注下方支撑 17 | | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 关注仓单 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-11-21 天然橡胶：维持区间震荡格局 油脂：美生柴政策预期反复，昨日油脂情绪转弱 蛋白粕：南美天气市，美豆强于连粕 玉米/淀粉：震荡市延续，关注上冻后卖压冲击和建库的博弈 生猪：猪源充裕，价格弱势运行 天然橡胶：维持区间震荡格局 合成橡胶：市场氛围企稳，盘面延续震荡 棉花：棉价窄幅波动，空间受限 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价延续走弱 纸浆：盘面价格大跌，仍是资金进出带来影响 双胶纸：招标提振有限，双胶纸震荡运行 原木：估值不高，盘面低位波动 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：维持区间震荡格局 逻辑：天胶昨日在10月进口细分数据出炉后有所回落但幅度有限，暂时来 看下方仍有支撑。基本面具体来说，目前海外供应季节性上量相对顺利， 但原料价格坚挺一定程度上对盘面有所支撑。但这更多是来自于加工产能 扩张后的原料挤兑，后续仍面临一定回落压力。而需求端来看近两周并没 有发生明显的变化，价格下跌后下游采买情绪仍尚可。从品种间的角度来 看，RU仓单炒作似乎已经告一段落，后续来说上方的抛压相较于NR ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of NVIDIA is expected to drive a rebound in technology stocks, and the market may rebound due to the influence of US stocks and brokerage mergers [18][23]. - The risk appetite in the bond market has recovered, and the bond market remains weakly stable, but caution is needed regarding potential short - term trading opportunities [24][25]. - For various commodities, different trends are presented. For example, protein meal prices are gradually falling due to supply pressure, while sugar prices are expected to be range - bound both internationally and domestically [28][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: NVIDIA's strong performance may drive a rebound in technology stocks. The market showed support on Wednesday, with significant sector differentiation. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads on dips [18][21][23]. - **Treasury Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, and the bond market is weakly stable. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, take profit on previous (TL - 3T) positions, and try to go long on the T - contract current - quarter to next - quarter inter - delivery spread [24][25][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is evident, and the price is gradually falling. In the US, soybean export sales are expected to be within a certain range, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be supported, while rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [28][29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating lower, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. Globally, there will be a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, international sugar prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. The strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [31][34][35]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oscillating market continues. External factors have led to short - term price fluctuations, and different oils have different supply - demand situations. The strategy is to go long on dips or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [36][37][39]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are starting to correct, and the futures price is falling. The US corn futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, while domestic corn prices in the Northeast are falling, and those in the North China are relatively strong. The strategy is to go long on dips for the outer - market December corn, short on rallies for the January corn, wait for corrections for the May and July corn, and conduct spread - narrowing operations for the January corn - starch spread [40][41][43]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure persists, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall supply pressure remains, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle strategies for options [44][45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is weak, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and quality. The strategy is to short on rallies for the January peanuts, go long on dips for the May peanuts with a stop - loss at 7800, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [46][47][48]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49][50][52]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and fruit prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and the fundamentals are relatively strong, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to recent large fluctuations [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. External factors and supply - demand situations at home and abroad affect the price. The strategy is to expect range - bound oscillations for US cotton and short - term oscillations for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The industry is affected by policies, costs, and demand. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating downward trend for single - side trading, go long on the coil - to - rebar spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [62][63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are correcting from high levels, and the futures market is weakly operating. After short - term replenishment, the market sentiment has changed. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating short - term trend without chasing short positions, consider going long on dips near previous lows in the medium - term, continue to hold the coking coal 1/5 reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [64][65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish approach is recommended. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. The strategy is to expect a high - level bearish trend for single - side trading, enter a 1/5 inter - delivery high - level reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a cost - supported range. Different ferroalloys have different supply - demand and cost situations. The strategy is to expect bottom - oscillating trends for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69][70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: NVIDIA boosts market sentiment, but the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold and silver prices. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The strategy is to hold long positions cautiously near the support level of the 18th, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [72][74][76]. - **Copper**: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to go long on dips, pay attention to the 85000 yuan/ton support level, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [76][77][80]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized, and the price is weakly operating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and long - term contracts. The strategy is to expect a short - term weak trend until the warehouse receipts are circulated, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas economic data are unexpectedly absent, and Shanghai aluminum moves with the sector. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market, and go long on Shanghai aluminum and short on LME aluminum to narrow the spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [83][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy moves with the aluminum price. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, wait for the market sentiment to digest, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Zinc**: It shows a wide - range oscillation. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to continue to hold profitable long positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][88][90]. - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to close profitable short positions and stay on the sidelines, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [90][91][94]. - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The oversupply of deliverable products and the macro - environment affect the price. The strategy is to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [94][95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The industry is affected by factors such as investment plans and carbon taxes. The strategy is to short on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96][97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term partial profits can be realized, and new strategies can involve going long on dips near the support level. The price is affected by production capacity and market demand. [98]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels and may rebound in the short - term; treasury bond futures will have limited price fluctuations and slow roll - over progress [19][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal will have obvious bullish factors and fluctuate; sugar prices will be affected by import volume and sugar mill start - ups, with limited downward space; the oil and fat sector will be affected by US biodiesel policies and maintain volatile; corn and corn starch prices will fall with the callback of spot prices; pig prices will still face supply pressure; peanut prices will oscillate at the bottom; egg prices will be stable with a slight decline; apple prices will be stable; cotton and cotton yarn prices will be mainly volatile [27][33][36][40][42][44][50][52][56]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices will fluctuate within a range; coking coal and coke prices will be weak; iron ore prices will be bearish; ferroalloy prices will be supported by cost and fluctuate within a range [58][60][63][65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals' volatility may increase; copper prices should focus on lower support; alumina prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate; electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are strong; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices; zinc prices will have wide - range fluctuations; lead prices will oscillate within a range; nickel prices will weaken; stainless steel prices will be weak due to supply - demand imbalance; industrial silicon prices can be bought on dips; polysilicon prices will oscillate before the platform company is established; lithium carbonate prices may fall after rising [68][73][78][80][84][86][88][90][93][95][98][99]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the market fell, with major stock index futures contracts declining. The risk appetite decreased, but technology stocks showed signs of stopping the decline [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility and short - term rebound; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads on dips [19]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with limited price fluctuations. The market capital was slightly tightened, and the roll - over progress was slow [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, hold (TL - 3T) positions and consider long T contract current - quarter minus next - quarter spread; for options, no specific strategy is provided [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybean index slightly declined, and the index of related products slightly increased. Domestic supply has uncertainties, and the price has support [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect price support and oscillation; for arbitrage, no specific strategy is provided; for options, no specific strategy is provided [27]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: International sugar prices may bottom out and oscillate. Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to high - volume imports and sugar mill start - ups, but there is support at the current price [32][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can consider building long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell put options at low levels [33]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Market Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel policy, external market oil and fat prices rose, but the final plan is not yet determined. Palm oil may have limited rebound, and soybean oil follows the overall trend, while rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can use short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [37]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The external market of corn rebounded, and domestic corn prices may fall with the decline of port prices [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can short on dips for December corn in the external market, stay on the sidelines for January corn, and wait for dips for May and July corn; for arbitrage, shrink the spread between January corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [40]. Pig - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply pressure has improved, but the overall supply is still high, and pig prices still face pressure [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can arrange a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell wide - straddle strategies [42]. Peanut - **Market Performance**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and futures prices will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on May peanuts on dips; for arbitrage, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [45]. Egg - **Market Performance**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline [47][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [51]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is likely to be lower than last year. The fundamentals are strong, but the market is volatile [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should exit and wait and see; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [53]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: New cotton will be listed in large quantities, and the increase in production may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and cotton prices will be mainly volatile [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading expects US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton to be mainly volatile; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [56]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: The black - metal sector was weak at night, and steel prices were restricted by supply - demand structure. However, there is cost support, and hot - rolled coil performs better than rebar [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect range - bound fluctuations; for arbitrage, long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; for options, stay on the sidelines [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: After short - term replenishment, the market is cautious, and prices are weak. In the medium - term, there is demand for winter storage [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect weak short - term fluctuations and consider going long near previous lows; for arbitrage, hold the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal; for options, stay on the sidelines [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand is weak. Ore prices are expected to be bearish [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be bearish; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [64]. Ferroalloy - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of ferroalloy are both weak, and prices are supported by cost and will oscillate at the bottom [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect bottom - bound oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The ADP weekly employment data was weak, and precious metals rebounded slightly. With the upcoming release of key data, volatility may increase [68][70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines; aggressive investors can try to go long near yesterday's low [71]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, and copper prices are under pressure. However, there is support around 85,000 yuan/ton [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [74]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply of alumina is still in surplus, and prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate before substantial production cuts [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect short - term bottom - grinding oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have decreased, and aluminum prices have fallen, but the fundamentals are still strong [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, focus on the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China; for options, stay on the sidelines [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices. The cost provides support, but market trading activity has declined [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The domestic zinc mine supply is tight, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely due to macro factors [85][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold profitable long positions; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [86]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Domestic lead inventories are increasing, and lead prices are under pressure. They will be affected by overseas macro factors [87][88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold remaining short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [88]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel is in a state of oversupply of deliverable products. In the off - season, inventories increase, and prices are weak. However, there may be production cuts [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: Stainless steel demand is in the off - season, costs are falling, and inventories are increasing. Prices will follow nickel prices and continue to decline [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [94]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened, but downstream prices have risen, and costs are firm. It can be bought on dips [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should buy on dips; for arbitrage, conduct the Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage; for options, no specific strategy is provided [95]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased in November, and the market will oscillate before the platform company is established [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: There are increasing differences at high levels, and prices may fall after rising [99]. - **No specific trading strategy is provided in the text**.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]

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