蛋鸡养殖产能去化
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金信期货日刊:鸡蛋期货价格上涨:短期反弹难改长期格局-20251028
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 01:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - The short - term rebound of egg futures prices is difficult to change the long - term pattern. The current price increase is a short - term phenomenon, and the medium - and long - term is still dragged down by high inventory [3]. - For stock index futures, it is expected to continue high - level volatile upward movement [7]. - For gold, due to large fluctuations, it is recommended to avoid short - term long - chasing [12]. - For iron ore, there is an opportunity to buy on dips as the bottom has stabilized and commodity sentiment has improved, although long - term supply is expected to be loose [15]. - For glass, wait patiently for the right - hand signal after a period of narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For eggs, considering the current loss situation, there is a short - term long - trading opportunity despite sufficient supply [24]. - For pulp, it is expected to run weakly and be treated as low - level oscillation [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On October 27, the main contract price of eggs rose to 3327 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.18%. The price increase was a low - level rebound. The current national in - production laying hen inventory is about 1.37 billion, far exceeding the reasonable range of 1.15 - 1.2 billion. The supply surplus problem is prominent, and the medium - and long - term rebound height is limited [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures are approaching a new high of 4000 points. With the opening of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference and the 3.2% growth of the profits of national industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September, it is expected to continue high - level volatile upward movement [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently experiencing large fluctuations, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long - chasing [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron may decline periodically. Technically, there is an obvious bottom - stabilizing signal, and considering the improved commodity sentiment, there is an opportunity to buy on dips. In the long term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has not changed much, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. After a previous significant adjustment, it has entered a narrow - range fluctuation, and it is necessary to wait patiently for the right - hand signal [20]. Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of in - production laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound height. However, based on the current price and cost, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future, presenting a short - term long - trading opportunity [24]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has been stable with a slight increase. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port de - stocking degree is still lower than expected, and the purchasing end is cautious. It is expected to run weakly and be treated as low - level oscillation [29].