2025年蛋鸡养殖亏损，去产能格局逐步成型 2025年蛋鸡养殖进入亏损期，核心源于前期产能持续扩张引发的供需失衡。受2021-2024年持续盈利驱 动，养殖环节新建、扩产现象普遍，2023年下半年开始，在产蛋鸡存栏持续增加，2025年9月份增长至 13.68亿只，为近五年以来的最高点。由于供应高位叠加需求疲软，2025年蛋价创近五年新低，年均价 3.17元/斤，同比跌幅超20%，单斤鸡蛋年均亏损0.03元，最大亏损达0.72元，年内三分之二的时间处于 亏损状态。 在亏损压力下，行业自发去产能启动。2025年老母鸡出栏量提升，出栏日龄由年初的550天左右提前至 480天左右，年内老母鸡总出栏量9.33亿只，同比增幅7.45%。另外2025年下半年开始补栏端持续低迷， 月度补栏量由4月9400万羽左右降至9月7800万羽左右，累计降幅超15%，鸡苗价格同步从4.5元/羽左右 跌至2.6元/羽左右。"高淘汰、低补栏"格局成型，行业进入去产能阶段。 供应略减与节日需求共振驱动，1月蛋价强势反弹 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯禽蛋产业链高级分析师刘梅 【导语】2025年蛋鸡行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance in Q4, leading to a decline in prices for both eggs and hens, pushing the industry into a loss-making phase. Expectations for Q1 2026 suggest a potential rebalancing of supply and demand, with prices likely to rise initially before falling again [2][18]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q4, the average price of eggs was 2.96 yuan per jin, down 5.73% from Q3, while the average price of hens fell to 4.03 yuan per jin, a decrease of 18.75% [3][19]. - The average cost of producing one jin of eggs decreased to 2.95 yuan, a reduction of 2.64%, but the drop in egg prices was more significant, leading to an average gross profit loss of 0.19 yuan per jin, worsening by 0.10 yuan compared to Q3 [19][25]. - The inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, a slight decrease of 0.51% from the previous quarter, indicating a high historical level despite the downward trend [4][28]. Price Trends - Egg prices showed a "high-level retreat and bottom oscillation" pattern in Q4, peaking at 3.39 yuan per jin on October 1, then dropping to a low of 2.76 yuan per jin by October 13, marking a maximum decline of 18.58% [5][21]. - The average price of hens also followed a similar trend, with a quarterly average of 4.03 yuan per jin, down 18.75%, reflecting a significant drop from earlier in the quarter [7][24]. Profitability and Cost Structure - Despite a decrease in production costs, the decline in egg prices has led to an expanded loss in gross profit margins, with the average gross profit for eggs falling to -0.19 yuan per jin [8][25]. - The ongoing losses have resulted in a cautious approach to restocking among producers, with an increased willingness to sell off existing stock, indicating a shift towards reducing production capacity [10][27]. Market Demand and Sales - Sales in key markets decreased by 10.56% in Q4, attributed to the end of holiday demand and adverse weather conditions affecting storage [30]. - The overall demand for eggs has shown a structural change, with large-scale enterprises balancing their operations across regions, reducing inter-regional transport needs and impacting traditional sales channels [30]. Future Outlook - The egg production cycle suggests a continued decrease in inventory levels over the next three months, with expected reductions of 0.50% to 0.80% [31]. - Demand is anticipated to rise in January due to the Spring Festival, but a subsequent decline in February and March may lead to further price drops despite reduced supply [31][15].