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鸡蛋月报:弱情绪延续-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 15:16
01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 弱情绪延续 鸡蛋月报 2025/10/10 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F0273729 交易咨询号:Z0002942 王 俊 (农产品组) CONTENTS 目录 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端:9月份国内蛋价冲高回落,走势符合季节性,月初受开学等消费题材刺激,市场走货转好,中旬后市场风控情绪增加,同时供压不 减,蛋价从高位回落,国庆期间备货消费不及预期,库存积累,价格回落至今,且幅度明显高于预期;具体看,黑山大码蛋价月涨0.1元至 2.8元/斤,月内最高3.6元/斤,馆陶月落0.29元至2.49/斤,月内最高3.6元/斤,销区回龙观月落0.38元至3.05元/斤,东莞月涨0.13元至 2.94元/斤;当前淘鸡价格低迷,局部出现加速淘汰,但鸡龄仍高达499天,超淘并未发生,叠加新开产仍处增势,整体供应规模依旧偏大, 消费受制于经济环境表现一般,市场囤货情绪较弱,预计10月份前期蛋价以低位弱势整理为主,后期受备货影响有小幅反弹空间。 ◆ 补栏和 ...
“有中国朋友的地方,就有希望的田野”(新时代中非合作) ——中国企业助力埃及乡村脱贫与畜牧业振兴
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-10-07 21:56
在埃及尼罗河三角洲的乡村田野上,中国企业不仅带来优质的农业饲料,更带来先进技术、就业机会与 发展希望。10余年来,中国企业用行动不断书写着跨越国界的合作故事,为埃及农业振兴注入持续动 力:从村庄里的妇女培训,到现代化工厂落成,再到产业链条的不断延伸,一颗颗"希望的种子"生根发 芽。 "让妇女获得一门靠得住的谋生技巧,将大大助力埃及的脱贫事业" 埃及曼努菲亚省,阳光下的田野散发着青草的气息。在苏巴克·阿哈德村"家庭与农业发展中心"的二层 小楼里,一场别开生面的培训课程正在进行。这是由中国驻埃及大使馆、新希望六和埃及公司与当地多 家社会组织共同发起的公益项目——让百名妇女获得鸡苗、饲料和工具,并接受完整养殖周期的培训。 项目旨在帮助贫困家庭掌握技能,真正依靠双手获得持续收益,逐步掌握脱贫致富的方法。 院子里摆放着新发放的饲料袋、饮水器和阿拉伯文版的养殖手册。"我第一次觉得自己能改善家里的生 活状况。"45岁的村民阿米娜告诉本报记者。以前,她家庭的收入全靠丈夫外出打零工。如今她通过学 到的技能,可以养鸡创收,改善生活水平。 当地媒体《金字塔报》评论:"中国企业不仅帮助我们提升了养殖业产量,更有力提振了埃及养殖户的 ...
“有中国朋友的地方,就有希望的田野”(新时代中非合作)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-10-07 21:51
在埃及尼罗河三角洲的乡村田野上,中国企业不仅带来优质的农业饲料,更带来先进技术、就业机会与 发展希望。10余年来,中国企业用行动不断书写着跨越国界的合作故事,为埃及农业振兴注入持续动 力:从村庄里的妇女培训,到现代化工厂落成,再到产业链条的不断延伸,一颗颗"希望的种子"生根发 芽。 "让妇女获得一门靠得住的谋生技巧,将大大助力埃及的脱贫事业" 埃及曼努菲亚省,阳光下的田野散发着青草的气息。在苏巴克·阿哈德村"家庭与农业发展中心"的二层 小楼里,一场别开生面的培训课程正在进行。这是由中国驻埃及大使馆、新希望六和埃及公司与当地多 家社会组织共同发起的公益项目——让百名妇女获得鸡苗、饲料和工具,并接受完整养殖周期的培训。 项目旨在帮助贫困家庭掌握技能,真正依靠双手获得持续收益,逐步掌握脱贫致富的方法。 院子里摆放着新发放的饲料袋、饮水器和阿拉伯文版的养殖手册。"我第一次觉得自己能改善家里的生 活状况。"45岁的村民阿米娜告诉本报记者。以前,她家庭的收入全靠丈夫外出打零工。如今她通过学 到的技能,可以养鸡创收,改善生活水平。 "车轮滚动的是养殖业的未来,也是我幸福生活的明天" 曾经,埃及家禽养殖业发展滞后,饲料品质参 ...
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:30
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 29 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3352 | 3354 | -2 | 01-05 | -43 | -33 | -10 | | JD05 | 3395 | 3387 | 8 | 05-09 | -408 | -409 | 1 | | JD09 | 3803 | 3796 | 7 | 09-01 | 451 | 442 | 9 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1 ...
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250925
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 11:42
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 25 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3372 | 3354 | 18 | 01-05 | -17 | -38 | 21 | | JD05 | 3389 | 3392 | -3 | 05-09 | 169 | 142 | 27 | | JD09 | 3220 | 3250 | -30 | 09-01 | -152 | -104 | -48 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1. ...
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250923
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:22
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 23 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3362 | 3366 | -4 | 01-05 | -33 | -66 | 33 | | JD05 | 3395 | 3432 | -37 | 05-09 | 275 | 239 | 36 | | JD09 | 3120 | 3193 | -73 | 09-01 | -242 | -173 | -69 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 0.04 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1.55 | -0. ...
生猪行业进入亏损区间,反内卷或持续发力,建议关注成本优秀龙头:农林牧渔行业周报(20250915-20250919)-20250923
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-09-23 07:20
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry has entered a loss-making phase, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition likely to continue, suggesting a focus on cost-efficient leading companies [3][5] - The latest weekly pig price is 13.15 CNY/kg (down 0.37 CNY/kg week-on-week), indicating the industry is in a loss zone, with a potential stabilization of prices in the future [5][15] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a significant transformation, emphasizing the protection of farmers' rights and the activation of corporate innovation, which may lead to a focus on technology and innovative business models [6][16] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine industry is experiencing capacity control measures, with a recent meeting involving 25 pig enterprises to implement production capacity adjustments [6][15] - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.45 kg (up 0.13 kg week-on-week), while the price of 15 kg piglets is 358 CNY/head (down 36 CNY/head) [5][15] - The report suggests that leading companies with cost advantages and community engagement will benefit from excess profits and valuation premiums [6][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The chicken industry faces a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce capacity [7][17] - The price of chicken chicks is 3.40 CNY/bird (up 7.9% week-on-week), while the price of broilers is 3.38 CNY/kg (down 1.46% week-on-week) [7][17] - Focus on companies with improving ROE and sustainable growth, particularly high-quality imported breeding stock and integrated enterprises [7][17] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group due to improved management effectiveness and increased capacity utilization, leading to growth in volume and profit [8][18] - The prices of various fish species have shown mixed trends, with some experiencing significant year-on-year declines [8][18] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is seeing a consolidation of leading brands, with expectations of recovery in the third quarter following a weak second quarter [10][20] - Continued focus on strong domestic brands and companies with good performance in overseas markets [10][20] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's September report is bearish, with adjustments in soybean planting area and yield forecasts impacting market expectations [11][21] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade negotiations and weather conditions affecting soybean planting [11][21] 6. Market and Price Situation - The agricultural index has decreased by 2.70% compared to the previous week, with the overall market showing mixed performance [22][29] - The report notes the impact of external factors such as African swine fever outbreaks in neighboring countries on market stability [50]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:26
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall egg supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low costs, and weak demand have pushed egg prices to their lowest levels in recent years. The recent rebound in egg prices is mainly due to pre - holiday stocking, but as the stocking ends, egg prices are starting to decline. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens decreased as egg prices rebounded [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3366, down 52 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3432, down 38; JD09 remained unchanged at 3193 [3]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 66, down 14; the 05 - 09 spread was 239, down 38; the 09 - 01 spread was - 173, up 52 [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.11, down 0.02. Other ratios also showed minor changes [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin; the average price in sales areas was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. Prices in most regions were stable, with some fluctuations in a few areas [3]. - **Culled Hen Prices**: The average price of culled hens was 4.55 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in most regions increased [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean粕 was 3012 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [3]. - **Profits**: The profit per laying hen was 30.93 yuan, down 1.04 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. It is estimated that the inventory from September to December 2025 will be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In August, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8% [7]. - **Culling Volume**: In the week of September 18, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. The average culling age was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7]. - **Sales Volume**: In the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8]. - **Profits**: As of September 18, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.3 yuan/jin; the expected profit per laying hen was 2.97 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/hen from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The current high supply, low demand, and low egg prices have led to an initial increase in culling enthusiasm. However, as egg prices rebounded, the culling willingness decreased. The recent slowdown in market sales is due to the end of pre - holiday stocking [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].
现货冲高回落,产能高压限制反弹空间
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This year, the egg market shows a "peak season without prosperity" trend, with high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction. After the Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking ends, the market demand will cool down, and the futures market may show weak fluctuations [8][53] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading and continue the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage strategy, while remaining on the sidelines for options trading [8][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market showed range - bound fluctuations. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 3,112 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.22%. The trading volume was 389,049 lots, and the open interest was 398,055 lots [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - The average egg price in the main production areas last week was 3.69 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 7.89%. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.72 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 9.73%. However, prices in both areas declined towards the weekend [7][17] 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national areas last week was 2.98 yuan per chick, down 0.33% week - on - week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 50%. Due to farmers' weak replenishment willingness, the chicken chick market was oversupplied [21] 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - The average price of old hens in representative markets last week was 4.66 yuan per catty, up 0.22% week - on - week. The price first rose and then fell [24] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - In August, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.317 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 8.93%. It is expected that the inventory in September will decline slightly after reaching a high for the year [27] - The shipping volume in the main production areas last week was 7,491.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.52%. The shipping pace slowed down towards the weekend [31] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample points last week was 576,200, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%. The average slaughter age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [37] 3.2.2. Demand Side - In the Beijing market, the arrival volume was 89 trucks, a week - on - week decrease of 8.25%. In the Guangdong market, the arrival volume was 492 trucks, a week - on - week increase of 23.31%. The market shifted from tight to loose [40] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.3384 million, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. Due to farmers' reluctance to slaughter and weak terminal demand, the slaughter volume decreased [42][44] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 0.61 days, a 22% increase from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, unchanged from the previous day [47] 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28%. The breeding profit was 0.17 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 254.55%. The decline in feed prices led to a decrease in breeding costs, while the increase in egg prices improved profits [51]
农林牧渔行业2025年第38周周报:行业盈利状况加速恶化,重视生猪板块-20250921
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-21 09:15
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The report emphasizes the deteriorating profitability in the pig farming sector, highlighting the need to focus on the pig segment due to its undervaluation and expectation differences [1][2] - The dairy and beef sectors are noted for potential recovery, with the beef super cycle possibly starting, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [3][18] - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic brands rising and pet food exports showing positive trends, indicating a robust market for investment [4][19] - The poultry sector is advised to focus on breeding gaps and improving consumption demand, particularly for yellow chickens, which may see price improvements [5][20][23] - The planting sector is encouraged to pivot towards biological breeding opportunities amidst a tight grain supply-demand balance [8][25] - The feed sector is highlighted for its market share growth and consistent performance, particularly recommending Haida Group [9][27] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - Current average pig price is 12.94 CNY/kg, down 4.15% from last week, with self-breeding profits narrowing to 7.7 CNY/head [1][16] - The average weight of pigs at market is at a historical high, indicating continued pressure on prices [1][16] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, which are currently undervalued [2][17] Beef Sector - Live cattle prices are at 27.16 CNY/kg, showing a 10.9% year-on-year increase, while fresh milk prices are stable [3][18] - The report anticipates a recovery in raw milk prices and potential price increases in beef due to reduced supply and improved demand [3][18] Pet Industry - The pet economy is thriving, with significant growth in domestic brands and pet food exports increasing by 6.64% year-on-year [4][19] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [4][19] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the need to monitor breeding imports and the potential for price recovery in yellow chickens due to improved demand [5][20][23] - Key recommendations include Shengnong Development and Yisheng Biological [5][22] Planting Sector - Emphasis on improving grain yield through better seed and agricultural practices, with a focus on biotechnology [8][25] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][25] Feed Sector - Haida Group is recommended for its market share growth and consistent performance amidst a recovering market [9][27] - The report notes a significant exit of small players from the market, leading to improved conditions for remaining companies [9][27]