研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 13 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3350 | 3300 | 50 | 01-05 | -211 | -278 | 67 | | JD05 | 3561 | 3578 | -17 | 05-09 | -401 | -384 | -17 | | JD09 | 3962 | 3962 | 0 | 09-01 | 612 | 662 | -50 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.46 | 1.43 | 0.02 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3300 | 3178 | 122 | 01-05 | -278 | -408 | 130 | | JD05 | 3578 | 3586 | -8 | 05-09 | -384 | -393 | 9 | | JD09 | 3962 | 3979 | -17 | 09-01 | 662 | 801 | -139 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 0.03 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货鸡蛋周报 期现货同步反弹 20260111 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点策略 u 现货：周内全国鸡蛋现货价格延续反弹。据我的农产品网数据统计，鸡蛋主产区均价3.14元/斤，较上周上涨0.15元/斤，涨幅 5.02 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. However, due to the off - season demand in the first half of the year, the increase in the spot price is limited. In the second half of the year, if the first - half egg price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if it is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The second half of the year is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3149, up 45 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3544, up 8; JD09 closed at 3952, down 9. The 01 - 05 spread was - 395, up 37; 05 - 09 was - 408, up 17; 09 - 01 was 803, down 54. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: The main producing area average price was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin; the main selling area average price was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices mostly continued to rise, and the prices of eggs in Beijing markets increased by 4 yuan per box. The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin [2][4][7] 2. Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales**: The average price of the main producing areas increased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and that of the main selling areas increased by 0.06 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices mostly rose, and the egg prices in Beijing markets and those in many regions increased. The sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was at a low level in history [4][5] - **Inventory**: In December, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatch of egg - laying chicken seedlings in December was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% decrease year - on - year. The weekly average inventory of the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing; the weekly average inventory of the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing [5][6] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The current profit was 7.66 yuan/feather, an increase of 3.24 yuan from the previous day [2][6] 3. Trading Logic - In the short - term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. However, due to the off - season demand in the first half of the year, the increase in the spot price is limited. In the second half of the year, if the first - half egg price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if it is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The second half of the year is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Consider building long positions in the 5 - month far - month contract at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Core Viewpoint - A fraudulent scheme involving the cultivation of red fungus and chicken farming was executed by a group in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, resulting in the loss of over 270,000 yuan from 14 farmers over a year [1][3]. Group 1: Red Fungus Scheme - The scheme was initiated in July 2023 by individuals who established an agricultural technology company and advertised high returns on red fungus cultivation, claiming profits could double in three months [3][4]. - Farmers were lured by promises of high buyback prices for the fungus, with claims of 2,500 yuan per pound, while the actual cost of the fungus bags was only 5 to 6 yuan each [4][5]. - The company managed to defraud eight farmers out of over 70,000 yuan through this red fungus scheme [4][5]. Group 2: Chicken Farming Scheme - In February 2024, the group shifted to a chicken farming scheme, falsely advertising low-cost chick care and guaranteed buyback prices, while using the same company structure [5][6]. - The cost of vaccines was significantly marked up, with the company charging over 10,000 yuan for 5,000 chicks, despite the actual cost being only 0.6 yuan per chick [7]. - This chicken farming scheme defrauded six farmers out of over 200,000 yuan between March and May 2024 [7]. Group 3: Legal Proceedings - Following multiple reports from defrauded farmers, local authorities initiated an investigation, leading to the arrest of key individuals involved in the scheme [8]. - The prosecution built a comprehensive case using bank records, contracts, and testimonies, resulting in the defendants being charged with contract fraud [8][9]. - The court ultimately sentenced the main perpetrators to prison terms ranging from ten months to one year, along with fines, and ordered the return of defrauded amounts to the victims [9].

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 05 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn F3013727 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3101 | 3070 | 31 | 01-05 | -449 | -438 | -11 | | JD05 | 3550 | 3508 | 42 | 05-09 | -459 | -548 | 89 | | JD09 | 4009 | 4056 | -47 | 09-01 | 908 | 986 | -78 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 0.99 | 0 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 数据来源：银河期货、wind 咨询 1/7 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3072 | 3068 | 4 | 01-05 | -469 | -486 | 17 | | JD05 | 3541 | 3554 | -13 | 05-09 | -525 | -498 | -27 | | JD09 | 4066 | 4052 | 14 | 09-01 | 994 | 984 | 10 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 0.01 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3965.28 points, marking a nine-day winning streak, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% to 13537.10 points. The total trading volume remained high at 2.15 trillion yuan, with more declines than gains in the overall market. As the year-end approaches, market hotspots are becoming more dispersed, with the oil and military sectors performing relatively well. After a brief adjustment in the fourth quarter, the market has resumed its upward trend, and the positive factors driving this rally are expected to remain unchanged, indicating a potential slow bull market next year [1][10]. Metal Market Dynamics - The metal market has shown significant volatility, with silver futures experiencing over a 10% increase during the day but closing lower. Copper futures broke the 100,000 yuan mark but also saw a narrowing of gains by the end of the day. Platinum and palladium contracts hit their daily limit down. The fluctuations in commodity prices have led to a decline in the non-ferrous metal sector in the stock market [3][12]. - Silver has been in a structural supply deficit for five years, driven by industrial demand from photovoltaic silver paste and AI electronics, with a cumulative increase of over 150% this year. The global supply of silver is primarily a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, and the expected increase in silver supply by 2026 is minimal, unable to fill the significant demand gap. The demand from the photovoltaic industry is stable despite the push for "de-silverization," while the rapidly expanding demand from AI data centers and automotive electronics will further support silver prices. A physical deficit of over 100 million ounces of silver is anticipated by 2026 [3][12]. - In contrast, copper is transitioning from an expected shortage to a real shortage, with projections indicating a deep deficit of 500,000 to 1 million tons in the global copper market by 2026. The decline in existing mine grades and lagging capital expenditures are hindering copper supply growth, while the explosive demand from AI and power grids is creating a rigid demand for copper, making price increases more likely in the long term [3][12]. Investment Strategies - Given the significant prior gains in metals like silver and copper, profit-taking has led to increased short-term volatility. Companies with high-quality mining resources are expected to benefit from both volume and price increases, providing a good safety margin and typically higher stock price elasticity than the metals themselves. Investors are advised to pay attention to mining ETFs (561330) and consider opportunities for low-cost acquisitions [4][13]. - The livestock sector saw a mild increase today, with pig supply expected to contract significantly due to strong policy and market-driven reductions, potentially leading to a rising price trend. The chicken sector is also expected to see price stabilization as seasonal demand increases, while the egg-laying industry faces upstream supply constraints that will gradually affect prices. Overall, the livestock industry is anticipated to recover in profits and valuations by 2026, making livestock ETFs (159865) worth monitoring [4][14]. Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, reaching the 7.0 mark, the highest in 15 months. It is expected that the RMB will maintain a strong trend in the short term, with a moderate appreciation anticipated in 2026, which could enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital [4][14]. - In 2026, China is expected to continue its loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies, leading to a further recovery in total demand. Globally, fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and Japan are also expected to improve demand. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose stance, benefiting the A-share market during the economic recovery phase [5][15]. Index Performance - The A500 index emphasizes industry balance and sector leaders, providing a more diversified and growth-exposed style that can offer a better beta base during the industrial upgrade cycle. Since its base period, the A500 has shown an annualized total return of 9.11% with a volatility of 21.41%, outperforming the CSI 300 in total returns, particularly in growth phases. The A500 index, covering leading companies across various sectors, offers investors a balanced choice between defensive and growth potential during market fluctuations [6][15].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货鸡蛋周报 短期供需变动不大 蛋价窄幅震荡 20251228 蒋琴 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F3027808 交易咨询号：Z0014038 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 现货：周内全国鸡蛋现货价格延续区间窄幅震荡。据我的农产品网数据统计，鸡蛋主产区均价2.91元/斤，较上周下跌0.01 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][42] Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.55% from December 12 to December 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.43 percentage points [11][14] - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (3.04%), animal health (2.95%), planting (2.28%), fishery (1.56%), breeding (0.81%), and feed (0.29%) [14][15] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.79 times, indicating a slight recovery in valuation, which remains at a historical low level, around the 62.7 percentile since 2006 [18][24] Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs increased from 11.45 CNY/kg to 11.59 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal has slightly decreased, with corn priced at 2338.04 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3102 CNY/ton as of December 25, 2025 [22][24] - **Profitability**: As of December 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -130.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -162.8 CNY/head, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous two weeks [27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.59 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price for white feather broilers was 7.82 CNY/kg, with profitability improving to 0.89 CNY/chick [29][33] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in pig prices as the seasonal consumption peak approaches, with a focus on the high inventory of breeding sows and the opportunities for leading pig farming companies [42][43] - In poultry farming, the report highlights the recovery in white feather broiler prices and the improvement in profitability, suggesting a positive outlook for leading poultry companies [42][43] - The report also notes growth potential in the domestic pet market and the expected increase in export volumes, recommending attention to promising domestic leaders in this sector [42][43]