研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3225 | 3202 | 23 | 01-05 | -324 | -321 | -3 | | JD05 | 3549 | 3523 | 26 | 05-09 | -373 | -360 | -13 | | JD09 | 3922 | 3883 | 39 | 09-01 | 697 | 681 | 16 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.56 | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3210 | 3184 | 26 | 01-05 | -300 | -309 | 9 | | JD05 | 3510 | 3493 | 17 | 05-09 | -368 | -382 | 14 | | JD09 | 3878 | 3875 | 3 | 09-01 | 668 | 691 | -23 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.55 | 1 ...

鸡蛋期货周报 供应压力稍缓解，但需求一般 作者：刘珂 投资咨询资格证：Z0016336 联系方式：020-88818026 广发期货APP 微信公众号 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025/11/22 品种观点 | 品种 | 主要观点 供应方面：当前蛋鸡养殖亏损持续扩大，叠加老母鸡价格下行，加剧市场对 | 本周策略 | 上周策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 后市的悲观预期，养殖端出栏意愿明显增强； 从前期鸡苗销量推断，新开产 蛋鸡数量维持低位，致使中小码蛋供应呈现偏紧格局； 综合来看，在产蛋鸡 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 存栏量预计延续缓降态势， 但部分养殖户惜售心理，导致当前库存水平仍处 | | | | | 于相对高位。 | 低位震荡，关注前低附近 | 市场短期大跌空间有限， | | | 需求方面：当前商超及电商平台普遍采取低价补货策略，采购积极性有限， | | | | | 同时，随着气温持续下降，餐饮行业进入冬季传统淡季，需求支撑减弱， 食 | 支撑力度 | 2512，2601合约空单 | | | 品加工企业则因自身产品销售情况，采购 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 10 月白羽肉禽月报 毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强 ❑ 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强。 父母代产能方面，2025 年 10 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2307 万套，同比 +2.5%，环比+0.7%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1532 万套，同比-6.8%，环比 -2.2%。10 月父母代鸡苗价格为 47.79 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 44 周数据为 45.97 元/套。 综合来看，鸡苗端环比上涨，毛鸡养殖端环比下降。10 月毛鸡养殖亏损 1.78 元/羽，环比盈利大幅下降；孵化场盈利 0.65 元/羽，环比盈利大幅扩张。 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 23 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，10月主产区鸡苗均价3.35元/羽，同比-19.3%，环比+2.4%， 白羽鸡养殖端增亏，苗鸡补栏积极性不减，年初以来海外引种量同比大幅下降，预计2025年下半年我国 父母代肉种鸡苗的供给将偏紧，后续也将影响2026年商品代肉鸡苗的供给。黄羽鸡方面，双节后需求略 有回落，但10月黄鸡价格维持较好景气，养殖端盈利可观。头部企业黄羽肉鸡出栏成本回落至低位；四 季度消费改善带动鸡价回暖，或有望释放较好盈利弹性。 1)白羽鸡：虽然2024年祖代种鸡进口同比增加，但未恢复至引种中断前正常年份引种数量；预计2025年 优质父母代鸡苗需求较好；加之受海外引种大幅下降影响，2025年下半年父母代鸡苗供给将更紧，后续 也将影响2026年商品代鸡苗的供给。看好种禽端景气，重点推荐成本改善的一体化龙头企业圣农发展 (002299.SZ)。 2)黄羽鸡：当前父母代种鸡存栏已降至历史偏低位水平，再加之行业亏损持续了一段时间，供给收缩为 后续鸡价上涨奠定基础。当前黄鸡养殖成本回落至低位，鸡价回暖后有望大幅释放盈利弹性。长期看， 未来随着消费习惯改变、禁售政策实施、经济复苏提振消费，冰鲜黄羽鸡市场或 ...

Core Insights - The "Ten Thousand Enterprises Revitalize Ten Thousand Villages" initiative in Guangxi is significantly enhancing rural income and development through partnerships between private enterprises and local communities [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - Farmers in Guangxi are experiencing increased income, with some reporting annual profits exceeding 60,000 yuan from poultry farming, which is more lucrative than working outside [1][2] - The initiative has led to an investment of 645.69 billion yuan, benefiting nearly 4 million rural residents [3][4] - In poverty-stricken areas, the average annual income of farmers has surpassed 18,000 yuan, with 15,000 villages reporting collective economic income exceeding 50,000 yuan annually for five consecutive years [4] Group 2: Business Models - The "Five Gold Model" implemented by companies like Jinfu Agriculture allows villagers to earn income through multiple streams: rent, wages, bonuses, and shares, enhancing financial security [3][4] - The initiative has fostered the development of six key agricultural industries, creating nine national advantageous characteristic industrial clusters and three modern agricultural demonstration zones [5][6] Group 3: Collaborative Framework - The initiative emphasizes a collaborative approach involving government, enterprises, and local communities, creating a robust support system for rural development [5][6] - Future plans include focusing on quality improvement and establishing 500 deep integration development models between villages and enterprises by 2027 [6]

研究报告 供需错配未改，蛋价震荡磨底 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 上周鸡蛋期货盘面分化运行，近月合约弱势下跌；远月合约 周内创出阶段性新高，周后期开始回落；截至上周五收盘，鸡蛋 主力 JD2512 合约报收 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.26%；鸡蛋 JD2605 合约报收 3477 元/500 千克，跌 1.17%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.01 元/斤，主销区均价为 3.06 元/ 斤，全国商品代鸡苗均价 2.76 元/羽，环比上涨 0.36%，种蛋利 用率约为 50%，中大型企业维持刚性补栏，受蛋价小幅上涨带动， 老母鸡均价 4.14 元/斤，环比上涨 0.49%，样本市场周出栏量增 加，平均出栏日龄至 494 天，销区到货量分化，北京市场到货 95 车，环比增加 5 车，广东市场到货 580 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed (2.45%) [12]. - Over 90% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating strong overall market performance [13]. - The industry valuation has rebounded, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio at approximately 2.94 times as of November 13, 2025, which is still relatively low compared to historical levels [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance and controllability of seed technology during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed sources and innovation in the seed industry [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from industry trends and potential recovery in profitability [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed industry (2.45%) [12]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.94 times, indicating a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a relatively low historical level, around the 65.9 percentile since 2006 [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird, showing a slight improvement in profitability [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance of seed technology and ensuring the autonomy of seed sources during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed industry leaders [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends and developments [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, the current laying - hen inventory remains at a high level. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. - Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited. - The recent decline in spot prices indicates that the short - term egg prices are likely to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3265, down 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3530, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, up 8. - **Spread**: 01 - 05 spread was - 265, down 44; 05 - 09 spread was - 348, down 21; 09 - 01 spread was 613, up 65. - **Ratio**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.03; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.06, down 0.02. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.95 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per jin, unchanged. Most regions' egg prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some areas. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03 yuan from the previous day [2][4][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan per chick, up 0.04. The average price of corn was 2260 yuan per ton, up 5; the average price of soybean meal was 3072 yuan per ton, unchanged. - **Profit**: The profit per chicken was 2.51 yuan, down 1.00 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, 10 million less than the previous month, 5.5% higher year - on - year, and lower than expected. The estimated laying - hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. - **Sales and Production**: From November 06, the weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7300 tons, down 4% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan per jin, down 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, 0.02 days less than the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, 0.04 days less than the previous week [5][6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory will lead to a gentle de - capacity speed. The limited upward space of the contract price and the recent decline in spot prices suggest that short - term egg prices are likely to be weak with limited downward space [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].