农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《备货进入尾声支撑走弱，降重有限 +大猪压力未释节后猪价承压—行业 点评报告》-2026.2.24 《一号文件聚焦农业现代化"量化落 地"，猪价节前走弱节后面临较大压 力—行业周报》-2026.2.8 《二育由惜售转出栏但去化有限，节 后猪价回落风险加大—行业周报》- 2026.2.1 10 体重回补二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率 指向全年偏松 ——行业周报 陈雪丽（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 周观察：体重回补二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向全年偏松 体重回补叠加二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向 2026 全年偏松。据 涌益咨询，截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 10.84 元/公斤，周环比-0.82 元/公斤，本周猪价在小年前备货博弈下走弱。节后我们重点关注体重、二育、 冻品三大抓手进 ...

农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 农林牧渔 沪深300 陈雪丽（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 周观察：体重回补二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向全年偏松 体重回补叠加二育退潮节后猪价下探，能繁与生产效率指向 2026 全年偏松。据 涌益咨询，截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 10.84 元/公斤，周环比-0.82 元/公斤，本周猪价在小年前备货博弈下走弱。节后我们重点关注体重、二育、 冻品三大抓手进行分析。出栏体重方面，集团、散户出栏均重节后均出现回 升，节前阶段性的降重出栏告一段落。截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，集团出栏均重 125.19kg，环比+2.57 kg，散户出栏均重 140.65kg，环比+0.98 kg。其中集团端 回升幅度更大，反映规模场节后出栏体重回补更明显。 二育方面，春节前最后一周起二育情绪明显退潮，后续需跟踪二育存量释放节 奏。栏舍利用率从 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3615 | 3702 | -87 | 01-05 | 202 | 259 | -57 | | JD05 | 3413 | 3443 | -30 | 05-09 | -387 | -378 | -9 | | JD09 | 3800 | 3821 | -21 | 09-01 | 185 | 119 | 66 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.60 | -0.04 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.24 | -0.04 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.46 | 1.47 ...

农林牧渔 农业周报 20260208-20260214：猪价快速调整，粮价稳步上涨 2026 年 02 月 23 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 走势比较 (10%) (2%) 6% 14% 22% 30% 25/2/24 25/5/5 25/7/14 25/9/22 25/12/1 26/2/9 子行业评级 | 种植业 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 无评级 | | 林业 | 无评级 | | 渔业 | 无评级 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 无评级 | | Ⅱ | | 推荐公司及评级 | 中宠股份 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<登海业绩预告点评：降本+转基因 驱动，业绩拐点基本确立>>--2026- 02-11 <<天康业绩预告点评：全产业链韧性 支撑底部企稳，并购驱动扩张>>-- 2026-02-10 <<农业周报 20260201-20260207：一 号文发布，重视农业投资机会>>-- 2026-02-10 证券分析师：程晓东 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengx ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3778 | 3778 | 0 | 01-05 | 349 | 349 | 0 | | JD05 | 3429 | 3429 | 0 | 05-09 | -390 | -390 | 0 | | JD09 | 3819 | 3819 | 0 | 09-01 | 41 | 41 | 0 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.64 | 1.64 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.26 | 1.28 | -0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.46 | 1.47 | - ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 24 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势。（1）节后猪价下探。春 节多数屠企停工放假，生猪购销基本停滞，随假期步入尾声，养殖企业陆 续恢复出栏，市场购销恢复，猪价开启回落，2 月 23 日猪价回落至 11.26 元/公斤，较 2 月 13 日-0.4 元/公斤。（2）消费淡季来临，节后宰量处于低 位水平。随假期步入尾声，多数屠企已陆续开工，当前宰量处于低位水平， 收购顺畅度高，采购难度不大。2 月 23 日样本企业日屠宰量 9.20 万头，较 节前 2 月 13 日下降 64%。冻品方面，春节前屠企加快消化冻品库存。截至 2 月 12 日当周，行业冻品库存率 17.18%，周环比-4.08pct。（3）生猪均重 季节性下降。节前规模场增量降重，散户与二次育肥出栏积极，集中出栏 带动生猪出栏均重下降。2 月 12 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 126.05 公斤（周 环比-1.35 公斤），其中集团场均重 122.62 公斤（周环比-0.72 公斤）、散 户均重 139.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3778, down 12 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3429, down 41; JD09 closed at 3819, down 40 [2]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 349, up 29; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 390, down 1; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 41, down 28 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.47, down 0.03; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.62, down 0.03; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price remained stable, with prices in most regions showing little change [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. Most regional prices were stable, with only a few areas showing price changes [2][4][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price Changes**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines remained stable at 3 yuan. The average price of corn was 2375 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3164 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit per feather was - 4.51 yuan, down 16.73 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price was stable, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected [4]. - **Chick Hatch Volume**: In January, the monthly hatch volume of chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of February 12, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of February 12, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a low level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 12, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 13.12 yuan/feather, the same as the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, the same as the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - Due to good previous profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

要说起吃鸡，中国在全世界当属第一大消费国。 一年下来，中国人能吃掉约70亿只白羽肉鸡！而这些白羽肉鸡从哪里来？ 福建一家企业一年出栏8亿羽肉鸡，其生产的鸡肉占领了全球70%；在中国，则贡献近50%的产量。 这家企业就是福建圣农控股集团。 圣农集团因具备完整产业链而成为亚洲养鸡行业的龙头企业，一体化规模堪称全世界第一，市值一度达到了205亿元。 2025年圣农集团营收高达351.13亿，一只鸡撑起了一个商业帝国，造就了一个百亿富豪。 圣农集团是怎么一个企业？ 它在中国白羽肉鸡市场占比最大，在养鸡领域是最大的上市公司。 不止如此，圣农集团把一只鸡开发得很彻底，生肉熟肉都在生产，甚至鸡血、鸡毛、鸡粪都利用了起来。 圣农集团最开始只是福建山坳里一个养鸡场，后来鸡肉业务量增大。 创始人傅光明考虑到人工杀鸡不卫生也不环保，国产杀鸡设备也存在一些卫生问题，便花30万美元购买了一套进口全自动的冻肉加工设备。 圣农在"装备"上一下子与同行（同行用的都是国产杀鸡设备）拉开了距离，意外撞开了现代化国际的大门。 因为购买进口设备，圣农集团吸引到了肯德基的注意。 当时肯德基准备落户福州，急需找到一个有质量保证且提供大量鸡肉的商家。 这 ...

Performance Overview - In the 2025 performance forecast, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 150 million to 190 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 62.29% to 70.23%. However, the fourth quarter shows significant improvement with a net profit of 118 million to 158 million yuan. The company attributes the performance fluctuation mainly to the industry cycle in the first half of the year, while 2026 is anticipated to bring multiple growth opportunities driven by the gap in grandparent breeding stock, expansion of production capacity, and growth in the breeding pig business [1] Industry Conditions - Due to the impact of avian influenza overseas, the introduction volume of grandparent white feather broiler breeding stock in 2025 decreased by over 10% year-on-year, totaling only 620,000 sets, leading to a tight supply. The price of parent stock chick has been rising since September 2025, with the transaction price exceeding 53 yuan/set in January 2026, and further price increases are expected, benefiting the company's core business [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand its production capacity over the next four years, increasing the parent stock inventory from 7 million sets to 10 million sets and the production capacity of commercial chicks from 600 million to 1 billion birds. This will be achieved through both self-construction and acquisitions to solidify its leading position in the industry [3] Business Development - The company has made progress in new business areas, with the research and development of new egg-laying chicken strains passing the pilot test, expected to receive certification in the first half of 2026, thereby enriching its product matrix. Additionally, the overseas strategy is advancing steadily, with agricultural and animal husbandry equipment already exported to Southeast Asia, and negotiations for the export of hatching eggs are underway to expand into international markets [4] Subsidiary Growth - As a core breeding farm for national pig breeding, the company's pig sales reached 98,400 heads in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 228.43%. The target for 2026 is to achieve sales of 150,000 heads, gradually contributing to sustainable revenue [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][53]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 2.88% from January 30, 2026, to February 12, 2026, which is approximately 2.16 percentage points lower than the index [7][14]. - Among the sub-sectors, only the fishery sector recorded positive returns, increasing by 0.27%, while feed, breeding, planting, agricultural product processing, and animal health sectors all experienced negative returns, with declines of 1.36%, 2.02%, 4.45%, 4.8%, and 7.3% respectively [15][19]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.61 times, reflecting a slight decline in valuation, and is at about 58.7% of the historical average since 2006, indicating a relatively low historical valuation level [22][24]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of the national external three-line pigs fell from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.57 CNY/kg during the reporting period [25]. - The cost of corn and soybean meal slightly decreased, with corn priced at 2372.16 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3164 CNY/ton as of February 12, 2026 [27]. - Profitability for self-bred pigs was reported at -98.32 CNY/head, while for purchased piglets, it was 53.1 CNY/head, both showing a decline compared to the previous week [31]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks increased to 2.4 CNY/chick, while the price for layer chicks remained stable at 3.2 CNY/chick as of February 13, 2026 [33]. - The average price for white feather broilers decreased to 7.48 CNY/kg, with profitability reported at -0.2 CNY/chick, indicating a decline from the previous week [36]. Industry News - The report highlights that the breeding capacity of sows is expected to continue decreasing in 2025, leading to a gradual reduction in pig supply and a potential increase in pig prices in 2026, which may improve breeding profitability [53]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the capacity reduction and the expected profitability improvement, particularly for leading companies in pig farming and poultry sectors [53]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading pig farming company with cost and scale advantages. - Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份, 300498): A major player in both pig and poultry farming with strong cost control. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with a strong supply chain. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [54].