转自：期货日报 农业农村部数据显示，截至8月22日，28种蔬菜均值为4.8元／斤，较前一周同期上涨0.1元／斤。这主要是因为部分蔬菜陆续进 入季节性退市，整体供给量略有下滑，现货价格环比增加，但同比来看，现货价格依然位于近几年较低位置，蔬菜供给较往年 充裕，一定程度上减弱了鸡蛋的替代需求。 钢联数据显示，2025年7月底，在产蛋鸡存栏量为12.92亿只，环比增加2%，同比增加7%。数据显示，7月鸡苗销量4532万羽， 环比减少4%，同比增加2.7%；晓鸣股份2025年7月销售1992万羽，环比减少18%，同比增加13%。目前种鸡企业鸡苗订单多数排 至9月中上旬，少数排至9月下旬，从企业排单量及补栏情绪来看，预期8月鸡苗销量环比减少。 三季度的新增产能对应的是3月、4月及5月的鸡苗补栏量，而3月、4月及5月是上半年鸡苗补栏的高峰期，且远高于往年同期水 平。因此，三季度新增产能高于往年同期水平，而这部分新增产能在四季度进入产蛋高峰期，预示着四季度在产蛋鸡产能较为 充裕，而6月以来鸡苗补栏环比下滑，预示着10月之后新增产能将环比下滑。整体来看，四季度新增产能虽有所下滑，但在产蛋 鸡整体产能依然处在高位。 截至8月2 ...

联系方式： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3376 | 3383 | -7 | 01-05 | -99 | -99 | 0 | | JD05 | 3475 | 3482 | -7 | 05-09 | 559 | 531 | 28 | | JD09 | 2916 | 2951 | -35 | 09-01 | -460 | -432 | -28 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.57 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3383 | 3434 | -51 | 01-05 | -99 | -78 | -21 | | JD05 | 3482 | 3512 | -30 | 05-09 | 531 | 592 | -61 | | JD09 | 2951 | 2920 | 31 | 09-01 | -432 | -514 | 82 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.58 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.09 | 1.11 | -0.03 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | ...

研究报告 鸡蛋周报 "旺季不旺"困局难破，蛋价持续探底之路 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周鸡蛋期货盘面破位下行，主力 2510 合约创下上市以来新 低，截至上周五收盘，JD2510 合约报 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.07%， 成交量 526,351 手，持仓 434,281 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 上周鸡蛋市场延续弱势，主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.19 元/斤，虽 环比小幅上涨 5.63%，但仍处于历史同期低位，呈现"旺季不旺" 特征。周内短暂补库带动价格试探性反弹，但受新开产蛋鸡持续 增加及终端需求疲软影响，"供强需弱"矛盾依然突出，现货价 格最终承压阴跌。养殖持续亏损严重打击行业信心，补栏意愿低 迷，鸡苗均价环比下跌 2.29%至 2.99 元/羽，种蛋利用率仅约 50%。 同时淘汰鸡价 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the Asia Pet Expo showcasing over 2,600 exhibitors and 20,000 brands, indicating a thriving market driven by globalization and innovation [2][13] - China's pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 201,000 tons exported from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.64% [14] - The pig farming sector is facing challenges, with the average pig price at 13.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous week, and the average weight of pigs reaching a historical high [15][16] - The dairy sector is poised for a recovery, with the original milk price expected to rebound as production capacity decreases after a prolonged period of losses [17][18] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps, with a significant decline in the import of breeding chickens due to avian influenza concerns, which may impact future supply [19][20] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biotechnology, with a focus on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market recovery and increased market share [26] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The Asia Pet Expo has reached a record scale of 310,000 square meters, highlighting the industry's vitality and innovation potential [2][13] - Pet food exports from China have increased, with a total of 201,000 tons exported in the first seven months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.64% [14] - Recommended companies include pet food brands like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [14] Pig Sector - The average pig price is currently at 13.82 yuan/kg, with a year-to-date low in profitability for pig farming [15][16] - The average weight of pigs is at a historical high, indicating supply pressures [15] - Recommended companies include leading pig farming firms such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods [16] Dairy Sector - Yuran Dairy reported stable performance with a revenue of 10.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [17] - The dairy industry is expected to see a recovery as production capacity decreases [18] - Recommended companies include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [18] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, due to avian influenza [19][20] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [20] Planting Sector - The focus is on food security and biotechnology, with an emphasis on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [25] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and performance [26] - The animal health sector is also recommended, particularly companies like Kexin Biological [27]

2025 年 8 月 24 日 本周毛鸡价格上涨，鸡苗价格持平。截至 8 月 22 日，白羽肉毛鸡价格为 7.33 元/公斤，周环比上涨 1.81%，鸡苗价格 3.58 元/羽，与上周持平。毛鸡方面， 本周屠宰企业压价、鸡肉冻品走货不畅，但肉鸡出栏量有限、局部供给偏紧， 价格暂获支撑、高位窄幅震荡。鸡苗方面，毛鸡盈利仍存、种禽场高报低走， 当前补栏窗口渐窄，规模场挺价的同时，散户补栏情绪偏谨慎，市场博弈加 剧，苗价进入震荡调整。 本周玉米、小麦、豆粕现货价格下跌。截至 8 月 22 日，玉米现货均价为 2373.53 元/吨，环比下跌 0.86%；小麦现货均价为 2432 元/吨，环比下跌 0.25%，豆粕现货均价 3084.29 元/吨，环比下跌 0.41%。玉米方面，本周玉米 现货价格继续走弱，受春玉米陆续上市、小麦替代优势仍在，以及贸易商出库 意愿增强影响，市场流通粮源充裕而用粮企业采购谨慎，压价情绪升温，玉米 价格整体偏弱运行。豆粕方面，本周豆粕价格延续跌势，受国内现货供应宽 松、油厂库存高位及新作丰产预期压制，贸易商降价出货意愿增强，但外盘成 本支撑下跌幅有限，短期弱势震荡为主。天然橡胶价格下跌。截 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report on August 21, 2025, by researcher Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3437, down 53 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3506, up 48; JD09 closed at 2879, down 121 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was -69, down 101; the 05 - 09 spread was 627, up 169; the 09 - 01 spread was -558, down 68 [3] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, down 0.02; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, up 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.30, down 0.04 [3] - The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, up 0.02; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.94, down 0.02 [3] Spot Market - The main producing area average price was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.04; the main selling area average price was 3.39 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25 [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per bird was 3.82 yuan, down 2.50 from the previous day [3] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04; the price of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [3] - The average price of corn was 2382 yuan, down 3; the average price of bean meal was 3124 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.60 yuan, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg price remained stable today, with some regions showing price stability and others slight fluctuations [6] - In July, the national laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase [7] - In July, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week [7] - The average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/bird, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply - side pressure is still obvious, with the laying hen inventory at a high level in the same period over the years, and the cold - stored eggs stored in the market are flowing out, putting pressure on the market price. The short - term bearish logic holds without large - scale over - culling [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting at high prices [10] - Arbitrage: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [10] - Options: Sell call options [10]

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-August, although spot prices have stabilized and rebounded, the market remains pessimistic about the peak season spot prices, leading to a significant decline in the 2509 contract due to the timing of egg deliveries post National Day [5][6]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The price gap between large and small eggs has reached a historical high, indicating that new production capacity exceeds the number of old hens being culled [5][6]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas is currently 3.2 yuan/kg, significantly lower than the same period last year [6][7]. - As of August 19, the inventory in the production link was 0.74 days, while the circulation inventory was 1.1 days, reflecting a rebound in inventory levels despite a decrease in supply [6]. Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - The number of laying hens increased by 2% month-on-month to approximately 1.292 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [15]. - The sales of chick orders have decreased, indicating a decline in replenishment sentiment, with chick prices dropping to 3.15 yuan each as of August 20 [15][16]. - The high level of chick replenishment from March to May suggests that the supply of laying hens will remain high in the fourth quarter, despite a projected decline in new production capacity [16]. Group 3: Profitability and Culling Trends - As of August 6, the profit from egg production was -7 yuan per hen, indicating a slight loss, with feed prices remaining stable [24]. - The number of culled hens increased by 5.2% week-on-week, with an average culling age of 502 days, reflecting a slight easing of reluctance to cull due to lower-than-expected spot prices [24][30]. - The current culling pace may not sufficiently alleviate the oversupply pressure expected in the fourth quarter, unless there is an unexpected increase in culling post-Mid-Autumn Festival [30]. Group 4: Futures Market Outlook - The 2509 contract is expected to have limited upside as it approaches the delivery month, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic about peak season demand [30]. - The market is showing a near-weak and far-strong pattern, with expectations of a rebound in the far months, but current supply-demand factors do not support a significant market turnaround [30].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply - side pressure is significant and demand is average, causing price declines. Cold - storage eggs are hitting the market after a previous price rebound, and the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is advisable to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.39 yuan/jin, also down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is currently stable [6] - In July, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.356 billion, up 0.016 billion from the previous month and 6.1% year - on - year. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, down 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The estimated in - lay hen inventory from August to November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14th, the weekly slaughter volume of layer hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, up 5% from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 1% from the previous week [8] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, down 0.17 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, down 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8th, the expected profit per layer was 11.92 yuan/feather, down 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.89 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9] 2. Trading Logic - Supply - side pressure and average demand lead to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after a price rebound impacts prices. The current spot price increase is disappointing, so it's recommended to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting on price rallies [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [11] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3468, down 24 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3450, down 18; JD09 closed at 2983, down 115 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 18, down 6; 05 - 09 spread closed at 467, up 97; 09 - 01 spread closed at -485, down 91 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.60, unchanged; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - The average price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 8.54 yuan, up 0.45 yuan from the previous day [3] - The average price of corn was 2391 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3114 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged. The national mainstream price remained stable [6] - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in July was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 8 to 14, the national main production area's egg - laying hen elimination volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average elimination age was 506 days, unchanged [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was 11.92 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - The national price of eliminated chickens decreased, with the main production area's average price at 5.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply pressure is obvious and the demand is average, leading to price decline. After the previous rebound of egg prices, cold - storage eggs were gradually released, impacting the price. Although the spot price has risen, it is lower than expected. Short positions should be considered for the 10 and 11 contracts [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short positions on rallies [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [10] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes 15 charts, covering egg prices in main production and sales areas, chicken - seedling prices, eliminated - chicken prices, feed costs, laying - hen inventory, spreads, and breeding profits [12][16][20][22][27][29][38][40]