研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3300 | 3178 | 122 | 01-05 | -278 | -408 | 130 | | JD05 | 3578 | 3586 | -8 | 05-09 | -384 | -393 | 9 | | JD09 | 3962 | 3979 | -17 | 09-01 | 662 | 801 | -139 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 0.03 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货鸡蛋周报 期现货同步反弹 20260111 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点策略 u 现货：周内全国鸡蛋现货价格延续反弹。据我的农产品网数据统计，鸡蛋主产区均价3.14元/斤，较上周上涨0.15元/斤，涨幅 5.02 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. However, due to the off - season demand in the first half of the year, the increase in the spot price is limited. In the second half of the year, if the first - half egg price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if it is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The second half of the year is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3149, up 45 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3544, up 8; JD09 closed at 3952, down 9. The 01 - 05 spread was - 395, up 37; 05 - 09 was - 408, up 17; 09 - 01 was 803, down 54. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: The main producing area average price was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin; the main selling area average price was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices mostly continued to rise, and the prices of eggs in Beijing markets increased by 4 yuan per box. The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin [2][4][7] 2. Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales**: The average price of the main producing areas increased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and that of the main selling areas increased by 0.06 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices mostly rose, and the egg prices in Beijing markets and those in many regions increased. The sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was at a low level in history [4][5] - **Inventory**: In December, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatch of egg - laying chicken seedlings in December was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% decrease year - on - year. The weekly average inventory of the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing; the weekly average inventory of the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing [5][6] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The current profit was 7.66 yuan/feather, an increase of 3.24 yuan from the previous day [2][6] 3. Trading Logic - In the short - term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. However, due to the off - season demand in the first half of the year, the increase in the spot price is limited. In the second half of the year, if the first - half egg price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if it is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The second half of the year is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Consider building long positions in the 5 - month far - month contract at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

"投资几千元，三个月翻倍赚""鸡苗代养零风险，高价回收还退本金"……江苏省常州市一家农业科技公司在网络平台发布广告，引流客户到线下，以红栓 菌、鸡苗代养为诱饵画出农业致富的"大饼"，一年多时间里骗取14名农户共计27万余元。 经常州市武进区检察院提起公诉，法院以合同诈骗罪分别判处被告人李某某、王某某、胡某甲有期徒刑一年至十个月，各并处罚金。胡某乙因犯罪情节较 轻，退还违法所得后，被检察机关作出不起诉决定。 （漫画由AI生成 周蔚制作） 高价回收 设红栓菌代养骗局 2023年7月，无业人员李某某与王某某经预谋，决定用代养模式骗钱。两人辗转来到常州市武进区，在某乡镇租用了一处厂房，注册成立农业科技公司。 为掩人耳目，他们通过胡某甲找到其堂弟胡某乙担任公司法定代表人，并许诺每月给其5000元报酬，同时让胡某乙办理银行卡和POS机，专门用于收 取"业务款"。李某某曾向其他人坦言："高价回收不可能实现，就是为了骗客户买高价菌包。" 公司成立后，二人迅速启动"引流计划"——通过网络平台投放广告，以"红栓菌代养，3个月利润翻倍，干品回收价每斤2500元"为噱头，吸引有意向的农 户。 家住连云港的张某于2023年9月在某直播 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 01 月 05 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn F3013727 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3101 | 3070 | 31 | 01-05 | -449 | -438 | -11 | | JD05 | 3550 | 3508 | 42 | 05-09 | -459 | -548 | 89 | | JD09 | 4009 | 4056 | -47 | 09-01 | 908 | 986 | -78 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 0.99 | 0 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 数据来源：银河期货、wind 咨询 1/7 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3072 | 3068 | 4 | 01-05 | -469 | -486 | 17 | | JD05 | 3541 | 3554 | -13 | 05-09 | -525 | -498 | -27 | | JD09 | 4066 | 4052 | 14 | 09-01 | 994 | 984 | 10 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 0.01 ...

今日A股小幅震荡，上证指数微涨0.04%，收于3965.28点，截至今日已录得九连阳；深证成指下跌0.49%，收于 13537.10点。两市成交维持2.15万亿元的高位，整体上跌多涨少。临近年末市场热点趋于分散，石油、军工板 块表现相对较好。四季度以来市场经历短暂调整后恢复上行，长期来看推动本轮行情的积极因素尚未出现变 化，明年的慢牛行情依然可期。 养殖板块今日温和上涨。生猪方面，随着"政策端强力去化"+"市场端亏损去化"的双重叠加，生猪供应将出现 实质性收缩，猪价有望开启震荡上行通道。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已筑底完成，且行业亏损 之下供给端可能进一步收缩。蛋鸡行业受海外引种受限（禽流感、航班等问题）的滞后影响，2026年上游祖代 种鸡的缺口将逐步传导至商品代，鸡苗和毛鸡价格中枢有望抬升，龙头企业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。 成本端，全球粮食供应相对宽松，玉米、豆粕等饲料原料价格大概率维持低位震荡，对养殖业利润形成支撑。 总体而言，经历过2024、2025年的震荡磨底及产能去化后，2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估值的同时修复，感 兴趣的投资者可以关注养殖ETF(159865)。 //// // ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货鸡蛋周报 短期供需变动不大 蛋价窄幅震荡 20251228 蒋琴 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F3027808 交易咨询号：Z0014038 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 现货：周内全国鸡蛋现货价格延续区间窄幅震荡。据我的农产品网数据统计，鸡蛋主产区均价2.91元/斤，较上周下跌0.01 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][42] Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.55% from December 12 to December 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.43 percentage points [11][14] - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (3.04%), animal health (2.95%), planting (2.28%), fishery (1.56%), breeding (0.81%), and feed (0.29%) [14][15] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.79 times, indicating a slight recovery in valuation, which remains at a historical low level, around the 62.7 percentile since 2006 [18][24] Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs increased from 11.45 CNY/kg to 11.59 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal has slightly decreased, with corn priced at 2338.04 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3102 CNY/ton as of December 25, 2025 [22][24] - **Profitability**: As of December 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -130.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -162.8 CNY/head, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous two weeks [27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.59 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price for white feather broilers was 7.82 CNY/kg, with profitability improving to 0.89 CNY/chick [29][33] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in pig prices as the seasonal consumption peak approaches, with a focus on the high inventory of breeding sows and the opportunities for leading pig farming companies [42][43] - In poultry farming, the report highlights the recovery in white feather broiler prices and the improvement in profitability, suggesting a positive outlook for leading poultry companies [42][43] - The report also notes growth potential in the domestic pet market and the expected increase in export volumes, recommending attention to promising domestic leaders in this sector [42][43]

农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 研究所 农产品研发报告 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3072 | 3072 | 0 | 01-05 | -486 | -486 | 0 | | JD05 | 3558 | 3558 | 0 | 05-09 | -528 | -528 | 0 | | JD09 | 4086 | 4086 | 0 | 09-01 | 1014 | 1014 | 0 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.59 | 1.59 ...