（作者：赵星，卓创资讯分析师） （文章来源：新华财经） 回顾2025年下半年，鸡蛋价格持续在3.00元／斤上下徘徊，截至11月13日，主产区鸡蛋均价3.08元／ 斤，而单斤鸡蛋饲料成本却达到了3.00元，养殖端盈利状况持续欠佳。并且截至11月13日，下半年单斤 鸡蛋的平均利润为-0.12元，而进入11月以后，亏损进一步加重，单斤鸡蛋利润降至-0.20元，较10月平 均水平减少0.03元。利润的持续下滑，导致企业现金流与生存空间持续挤压，四季度迎来了老母鸡淘汰 加速的基本面现状。 根据目前市场的情况来看，卓创资讯预计这种淘汰加速的情况或将有所维持。老母鸡出栏量的持续增 加，将直接导致在产蛋鸡存栏量的逐步下降。根据前期补栏数据及当前老母鸡淘汰现状预计，从2025年 11月开始，在产蛋鸡存栏量将呈现持续下降态势，并于2026年12月份达到明显的最低点，预计在12.10 亿只左右。当供给端收缩到一定程度，而消费需求保持相对稳定时，市场供需关系将发生根本性扭转。 届时，目前蛋价和老母鸡价格的弱势态势将得到缓解。 综合来看，后市鸡蛋及老母鸡价格或将经历"延续低位运行"后，进入"小幅反弹"的通道，根据鸡蛋需求 的季节性波动 ...

目录 鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 GALAXYFUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 1 227/82/4 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.95元/斤，较上周五上涨0.02元/斤，主销区均价3.21元/斤，较上周五上涨0.15元/斤。周初，市场延续上周反 ...

研究报告 供需错配未改，蛋价震荡磨底 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 上周鸡蛋期货盘面分化运行，近月合约弱势下跌；远月合约 周内创出阶段性新高，周后期开始回落；截至上周五收盘，鸡蛋 主力 JD2512 合约报收 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.26%；鸡蛋 JD2605 合约报收 3477 元/500 千克，跌 1.17%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.01 元/斤，主销区均价为 3.06 元/ 斤，全国商品代鸡苗均价 2.76 元/羽，环比上涨 0.36%，种蛋利 用率约为 50%，中大型企业维持刚性补栏，受蛋价小幅上涨带动， 老母鸡均价 4.14 元/斤，环比上涨 0.49%，样本市场周出栏量增 加，平均出栏日龄至 494 天，销区到货量分化，北京市场到货 95 车，环比增加 5 车，广东市场到货 580 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the deep cultural significance and culinary versatility of chicken in Chinese cuisine, highlighting the preference for free-range, organic chickens that are naturally raised and freshly delivered [8][10][20]. Group 1: Chicken Consumption in China - Chicken is a staple in Chinese households, with various cooking methods such as boiling, frying, and stewing, showcasing its importance in social gatherings and culinary traditions [6][8]. - The article lists popular chicken dishes in China, indicating that every individual has their favorite preparation method, but the quality of the chicken itself is paramount for achieving authentic flavors [8][10]. Group 2: Product Offering - The article introduces a specific product: free-range chickens from the Dabie Mountains, raised for 500 days on natural grains, ensuring high quality and flavor [10][36]. - The chickens are processed under strict quality control measures, including real-time freshness preservation techniques and traceability through unique identification codes [12][14][56]. Group 3: Nutritional Benefits - The article highlights the nutritional advantages of different types of chickens, such as the tender meat of young chickens and the rich flavor of older hens, making them suitable for various dietary needs, including for pregnant women and the elderly [44][46][70]. - The soup made from these chickens is described as nourishing and flavorful, with a rich golden color and a unique aroma that enhances the dining experience [72][73]. Group 4: Pricing and Availability - The article mentions promotional prices for different types of chickens, such as 99 yuan for two young chickens and 158 yuan for two old hens, emphasizing the affordability of high-quality poultry [34][78]. - The product is available for home delivery through a cold chain logistics service, ensuring that customers receive fresh and well-packaged chickens without leaving their homes [18][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, demand, etc. It points out that although egg demand has improved slightly and prices have rebounded, the overall situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price is still fluctuating at the bottom. The increase in egg prices in the short - term is mainly due to the acceleration of old hen culling and the promotion of "Double 11". The short - term bottom of egg prices is expected to rise, but the long - term price trend still depends on the balance between supply and demand [5][15][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price is expected to rise in the short - term, and the bottom is expected to be lifted [5]. - The decline of old hen prices has slowed down. The supply of the old hen market is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of powder chickens is at a relatively low level, which has a certain supporting effect on the overall chicken price, but some high - price red chicken areas still have a slight decline risk [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The national main producing areas' egg - laying hen culling volume in the week of November 06 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of November 06 was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [12]. - In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of November 06, the corn price was around 2236 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3094 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was around 2493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs [15]. - The egg price first fell and then rose this week, and the overall supply exceeded demand. The average egg price decreased week - on - week, so the breeding profit decreased. As of November 06, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 11" promotion, the sales volume in the sales areas increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7300 tons, a 4% decrease compared with last week [18]. - The production - link inventory decreased week - on - week, and the circulation - link inventory increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [18]. - The vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly this week [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled hens has increased and the previous supply pressure has been relieved, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the short - term capacity reduction speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited [19]. - For trading, it is recommended to wait and see in terms of unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Relevant data on egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen breeding, price differences, and basis are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical analysis and conclusions are given in the text [22][26][27][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is expected to maintain a situation of stable supply and weak demand. Egg prices are likely to remain weak, with red eggs showing general sales and powder eggs at risk of further decline. The price of old hens may be stable to slightly weak, with limited decline, and the weekly average price may be around 4.25 yuan per catty [5]. - The supply of laying hens remains high. In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly hatching volume of egg - chick seedlings in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [10]. - Feed prices declined this week, reducing the cost of egg - chicken farming. Although the average egg price increased slightly this week, the overall supply exceeded demand, and the profit of egg - chicken farming increased. As of October 23, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.22 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week; on October 24, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 0.51 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 2.79 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. - This week's egg demand was relatively stable, with a decrease in sales in the sales areas. The inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. Vegetable and pork prices showed a slight increase [16]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. For unilateral trading, close the previous short - position orders at a profit; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.07 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from last Friday. The egg price was weak, and the red - powder price difference narrowed. The price of old hens was expected to be stable to slightly weak next week, with a weekly average price of around 4.25 yuan per catty [5]. - **Supply Analysis** - From October 18 - 24, the national main - production - area egg - chicken culling volume was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 499 days, the same as the previous week. In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly hatching volume of egg - chick seedlings in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of October 24, the comprehensive feed cost was about 2469 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.71 yuan per catty of eggs. This week, feed prices declined, reducing the cost of egg - chicken farming. The average egg price increased slightly, and the profit of egg - chicken farming increased. As of October 23, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.22 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week; on October 24, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 0.51 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 2.79 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. - **Demand Analysis** - This week, egg demand was relatively stable, with a decrease in sales in the sales areas. As of October 25, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week. The inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, the same as the previous week. Vegetable and pork prices showed a slight increase [16]. - **Trading Strategy** - The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. In the short term, egg prices are likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see. For unilateral trading, close the previous short - position orders at a profit; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - Relevant data on the inventory of laying hens, brooding chicken replenishment, culling of chickens, etc. are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text [21][22][23]. - **Cold - Storage Eggs** - No specific content provided. - **Egg - Chicken Farming Situation** - Data on the culling age of chickens and the average price of egg - chick seedlings in the main production areas are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text [26]. - **Price Difference and Basis** - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts and the price differences between 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text [29][30][33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation of eggs is characterized by an overall loose pattern. In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. 3. Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak. The main contract was shifting to JD2512. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 2,805 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.02%, with a trading volume of 157,777 lots and an open interest of 171,242 lots. The JD2512 contract was at 2,959 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.04% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, and in the main selling areas was 2.91 yuan per catty. At the beginning of the week, due to continuous rain in many places, terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased, causing egg prices to fall below the feed cost line. In the middle of the week, as the weather improved, downstream replenishment increased, inventory decreased, and prices rebounded slightly, but the overall supply - demand situation remained loose [7][19]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in key national regions was 2.76 yuan per chick, down 0.03 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 1.08% and a year - on - year decline of 23.12%. The chick market was oversupplied, and farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was low [23]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the average price of old hens in representative markets was 4.43 yuan per catty, down 0.14 yuan per catty, a decline of 3.06%. After the holiday, as egg prices weakened, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens increased. As prices fell to a low level, farmers became reluctant to sell, and the supply pressure eased [28]. II. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.313 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.87%. The number of newly - laid hens in October is expected to decline compared to September [31]. - **Producing Area Shipment Volume**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main producing areas was 6,015.19 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.94%. As egg prices fell, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some traders and cold storage started to stock up, leading to an increase in shipment volume [37]. - **Old Hen Culling**: Last week, the total culling volume of old hens in sample points was 600,100, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%. The average culling age was 497 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week. Farmers were not confident about the future market and culled old hens in a timely manner [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Selling Area Sales Volume**: Last week, egg sales were 6,207.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. Sales were affected by the seasonal off - season. As prices fell to a low level, the market's bottom - fishing sentiment increased, and sales recovered moderately [45]. - **Selling Area Arrival Volume**: Last week, the arrival volume in the Beijing market was 92 trucks, a month - on - month increase of 6 trucks, an increase of 6.98%. The arrival volume in the Guangdong market was 453 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 20 trucks, a decrease of 4.23%. The arrival volume in different markets showed differentiation [49]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens was 2.0717 million, a month - on - month decrease of 256,500, a decline of 11.02%. Slaughter enterprises operated cautiously. If terminal demand does not improve significantly, the slaughter volume may remain low in the short term [50][52]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.27%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous day, a decrease of 7.86% [56]. - **Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit**: Last week, the cost of laying hen farming was 3.42 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty, a decline of 0.87%. The farming profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 yuan per catty, a decline of 86.67% [60]. III.后市展望 - In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. IV.操作策略 - **Single - side**: Hold short positions cautiously. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Construct a bear spread strategy [9][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, and demand, indicating that the egg market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with weak egg prices and reduced breeding profits. It is expected that in the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices will remain weak, and suggests that previous short positions be closed for profit [5][10][13][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, the same as last Friday. Due to continuous rainy days at the beginning of the week, market demand declined, inventory accumulated, and egg prices fell below the feed cost. After the weather improved, terminal replenishment was active, inventory decreased, and egg prices rebounded slightly. However, overall, egg prices were still weak [5]. - After the National Day, the demand in the egg - laying hen market weakened, the downstream consumption was insufficient, and the confidence of the breeding end in the future was insufficient. The price of old hens was under pressure to decline. As the price of old hens fell to a low point, the breeding end's reluctance to sell gradually emerged, and the price of old hens rebounded slightly at the end of the week [5]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - At the beginning of the week, affected by egg prices, the enthusiasm of each link to purchase was average, and the inventory in the producing areas was high. Later, as egg prices bottomed out, the breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices, and the inventory decreased. The shipment volume in the main producing areas of national egg - laying hens showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the week of October 16, the slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [10]. - In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6%, higher than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Without considering delayed or concentrated slaughter, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [10]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of October 16, the corn price was around 2,271 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for eggs. This week, the average egg price continued to decline, and the breeding profit decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, after the National Day, affected by the weather, market sales decreased slightly. After egg prices bottomed out, the market's bargain - hunting sentiment increased, and sales increased. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the low prices of substitutes weaken the positive support for egg demand. As of September 11, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7,374 tons, an increase of 2.7% compared with the previous week [16]. - After the National Day holiday, due to bad weather, transportation was restricted, and the inventory in each link was high. In the second half of the week, as the weather improved and egg prices rebounded, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [16]. - This week, the vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly. On October 16, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 96.51, and as of October 15, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.33 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The inventory of laying hens on the supply side remains high, while the demand side is generally weak. It is expected that egg prices will be weak in the short - term, and the nearby contracts are likely to fluctuate weakly. - Unilateral: Close previous short positions for profit. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17].

Core Viewpoint - The chicken market in September experienced a divergence between the prices of old hens and eggs due to strong supply and weak demand, with expectations of a slight decline in average prices for old hens in October before a minor rebound [1][6]. Supply Side Analysis - The number of old hens awaiting elimination remained high in October, leading to price pressure, especially in early October due to concentrated slaughtering plans around the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [1][6]. - The average monthly slaughter volume of old hens increased by over 11% in September, contributing to significant market pressure [3]. - The total stock of laying hens reached 1.365 billion by the end of August, exceeding normal levels, which, combined with the gradual elimination of older hens, increased supply [3]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for old hen products was weak, influenced by the economic environment, with many slaughterhouses operating at around 70% capacity and holding frozen inventory, leading to low purchasing intentions [4]. - The presence of alternative protein sources, such as pork and fish, further reduced consumer demand for old hens [4][7]. - A temporary boost in demand is expected in early October due to holiday effects, but overall demand is anticipated to decline post-holidays, limiting price recovery [7]. Price Outlook - The price of old hens is expected to experience a "decline followed by a slight increase" pattern in October, with average prices projected to be between 4.30 and 4.40 yuan per jin, reflecting a slight decrease from September [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to decline and then adjust next week as the pre - festival stocking nears its end, and the old hen price is likely to weaken with limited decline [5]. - Considering the current fundamentals, the egg price may face pressure in the short - term as stocking ends, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - This week, the average egg price in the main producing areas was 3.7 yuan/jin, up 0.29 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 3.82 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The national egg price first rose and then fell. Next week, it may decline and then adjust. - The old hen price first rose and then fell. Next week, it is expected to weaken with a limited decline, and the weekly average price may be between 4.60 - 4.65 yuan/jin [5]. - **Supply Analysis** - From September 4 - 11, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.48 million, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, unchanged from the previous week. - In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. It is estimated that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 will be approximately 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of September 19, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3012 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2555 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.81 yuan/jin for eggs. - As of September 11, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On September 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 3.01 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.96 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. - **Demand Analysis** - As of September 11, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7303 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. - As of September 11, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week. - The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded, with the national average pork wholesale price around 15.58 yuan/kg as of September 18, showing little change from the previous week [16]. - **Trading Strategies** - Trading logic: As the restocking of each link nears its end, the egg spot price has declined. Short - selling at high prices can be considered. - Single - side: Consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - Data on the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from 2018 - 2025 is presented, including historical and future estimated data [21]. - **Culling Situation** - Data on the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens from 2020 - 2025 is provided [22]. - **Cold - Storage Eggs** - No specific content is provided. - **Egg - Laying Hen Farming Situation** - Data on the culling age of hens and the average price of egg - chicks in the main producing areas are involved, but no specific values are given [26]. - **Price Difference and Basis** - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts and price differences such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 are presented from 2018 - 2025 [29][30][33].