9月老母鸡市场受供强需弱的影响，其价格与鸡蛋价格走势出现背离。而10月理论待淘老母鸡数量仍处 高位，节前出栏令10月上旬老母鸡价格承压，且下旬需求无明显改善，预计老母鸡价格或先跌后小幅反 弹，月均价或环比小降。 在蛋鸡养殖行业中，老母鸡既是鸡蛋的生产者，本身也是肉食产品的重要来源，当鸡蛋价格上涨时，养 殖企业倾向于延长蛋鸡的产蛋周期，减少老母鸡的出栏量，导致老母鸡供应收缩，从而推高其价格；反 之，鸡蛋价格下跌时，养殖企业会加速淘汰老母鸡，市场供应增加，进而压制其价格。 展望后市，供应面看，10月理论待淘老母鸡数量虽较9月有所减少，但绝对量仍处于历史相对高位，供 给宽松的基础依然存在，对价格整体构成利空。从出栏节奏看，因养殖企业多计划在中秋、国庆双节前 后集中淘汰，10月中上旬的出栏量或将较为集中，供应压力较为显著；进入中下旬，预计出栏节奏将放 缓，供应端的利空影响将由强转弱，为价格提供一定的底部支撑。 需求面看，老母鸡需求端支撑疲软是抑制价格上行的主要因素。10月上旬受中秋、国庆节日效应拉动， 家庭消费及农贸市场需求或有短期、小幅的提振。然而，屠宰企业收购意愿偏低，深加工需求无利多支 撑，将限制需求的反弹高度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to decline and then adjust next week as the pre - festival stocking nears its end, and the old hen price is likely to weaken with limited decline [5]. - Considering the current fundamentals, the egg price may face pressure in the short - term as stocking ends, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - This week, the average egg price in the main producing areas was 3.7 yuan/jin, up 0.29 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 3.82 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The national egg price first rose and then fell. Next week, it may decline and then adjust. - The old hen price first rose and then fell. Next week, it is expected to weaken with a limited decline, and the weekly average price may be between 4.60 - 4.65 yuan/jin [5]. - **Supply Analysis** - From September 4 - 11, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.48 million, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, unchanged from the previous week. - In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. It is estimated that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 will be approximately 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of September 19, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3012 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2555 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.81 yuan/jin for eggs. - As of September 11, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On September 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 3.01 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.96 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. - **Demand Analysis** - As of September 11, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7303 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. - As of September 11, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week. - The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded, with the national average pork wholesale price around 15.58 yuan/kg as of September 18, showing little change from the previous week [16]. - **Trading Strategies** - Trading logic: As the restocking of each link nears its end, the egg spot price has declined. Short - selling at high prices can be considered. - Single - side: Consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - Data on the in - production egg - laying hen inventory from 2018 - 2025 is presented, including historical and future estimated data [21]. - **Culling Situation** - Data on the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens from 2020 - 2025 is provided [22]. - **Cold - Storage Eggs** - No specific content is provided. - **Egg - Laying Hen Farming Situation** - Data on the culling age of hens and the average price of egg - chicks in the main producing areas are involved, but no specific values are given [26]. - **Price Difference and Basis** - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts and price differences such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 are presented from 2018 - 2025 [29][30][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This year, the egg market shows a "peak season without prosperity" trend, with high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction. After the Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking ends, the market demand will cool down, and the futures market may show weak fluctuations [8][53] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading and continue the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage strategy, while remaining on the sidelines for options trading [8][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market showed range - bound fluctuations. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 3,112 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.22%. The trading volume was 389,049 lots, and the open interest was 398,055 lots [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - The average egg price in the main production areas last week was 3.69 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 7.89%. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.72 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 9.73%. However, prices in both areas declined towards the weekend [7][17] 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national areas last week was 2.98 yuan per chick, down 0.33% week - on - week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 50%. Due to farmers' weak replenishment willingness, the chicken chick market was oversupplied [21] 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - The average price of old hens in representative markets last week was 4.66 yuan per catty, up 0.22% week - on - week. The price first rose and then fell [24] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - In August, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.317 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 8.93%. It is expected that the inventory in September will decline slightly after reaching a high for the year [27] - The shipping volume in the main production areas last week was 7,491.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.52%. The shipping pace slowed down towards the weekend [31] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample points last week was 576,200, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%. The average slaughter age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [37] 3.2.2. Demand Side - In the Beijing market, the arrival volume was 89 trucks, a week - on - week decrease of 8.25%. In the Guangdong market, the arrival volume was 492 trucks, a week - on - week increase of 23.31%. The market shifted from tight to loose [40] - The total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.3384 million, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. Due to farmers' reluctance to slaughter and weak terminal demand, the slaughter volume decreased [42][44] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 0.61 days, a 22% increase from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, unchanged from the previous day [47] 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28%. The breeding profit was 0.17 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 254.55%. The decline in feed prices led to a decrease in breeding costs, while the increase in egg prices improved profits [51]

Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: Demand Boosted, Egg Prices Stable with an Uptrend" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is influenced by multiple factors including supply, demand, cost, and seasonal events. Currently, the supply is relatively high, but demand has been boosted by school openings, festivals, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival备货. However, the market still faces challenges such as high production capacity and average external sales. Overall, the egg price is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term and remains under the influence of supply - demand dynamics [5][10][17] Summary by Directory First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main consuming areas, it was 3.37 yuan/jin, also up 0.19 yuan/jin. Egg prices rose due to the Mid - Autumn Festival备货 and other factors, but the overall备货 scale was less than in previous years, and the high price might appear this week. The price of old hens fluctuated narrowly [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From September 4th, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.89 million, a 3.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, a 1 - day decrease from the previous week. In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises in August was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. The estimated in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 is 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of September 4th, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3084 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2577 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin for eggs. As of September 5th, the weekly average egg profit was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week. On August 29th, the expected egg - laying hen farming profit was 5.89 yuan/hen, a 2.05 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - Affected by school openings and the Mid - Autumn Festival, the sales volume in the consuming areas increased. As of August 21st, the national representative consuming area egg sales volume was 7439 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. As of September 4th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.93 days, a 0.13 - day decrease from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a 0.09 - day decrease from the previous week. The vegetable price index slightly rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [16] 5. Trading Strategies - The supply - side pressure has been slightly relieved, but the in - production inventory is still high, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. In September, demand is expected to increase due to pre - festival stocking, and the spot price may rise slightly. For trading, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - This part mainly presents data charts related to egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen farming situation, and price spreads and basis, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [20][24][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a "peak season with weak performance" situation, facing a prominent contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand." The egg price has reached a low level in recent years, and the futures market has been declining to correct the premium. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the lower limit. The main 2510 contract hit a record low. As of the close on Friday, the JD2510 contract was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 lots and an open interest of 434,281 lots [4][13]. (2) Spot Price - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 3.19 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%, but still at a low level in the same period of history. The market showed a pattern of "weak reality," with the core contradiction of "loose supply and weak demand" remaining unresolved. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to relieve the current supply - demand pressure [17]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 2.99 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.57%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%. Since February, the industry has been in deep losses, which has severely dampened the confidence of the breeding side, and the willingness to replenish chicks is poor [21]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.22 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The price decline continued. Due to the pessimistic expectation of the future market, most farmers chose to cull old hens, while some farmers had a wait - and - see attitude [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was about 1.292 billion. It is expected that the number of newly - laid hens in August will be greater than the number of old hen slaughter, and the in - laying hen inventory will continue to increase, increasing the production capacity pressure [30]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The average daily shipping volume in the main producing areas was 6,066.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.94%. The logistics efficiency in the egg - producing areas decreased this week, and the egg price rose and then fell. The market bearish sentiment spread, and the inflow of cold - stored eggs into the market affected the fresh egg sales [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 513,100, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. The average slaughter age was 502 days, unchanged from the previous month. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous losses of farmers and the weakening of confidence in the peak season [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the main selling areas rebounded slightly last week, but the increase in arrival volume did not effectively translate into consumption power, and the market remained weak [45]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: According to statistics, the total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.4307 million, a month - on - month increase of 44.26%. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous low egg price, which severely dampened the breeding confidence, and farmers' culling willingness increased significantly [48]. (3) Inventory - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.87 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.13 days. The egg inventory increased month - on - month, mainly due to the increase in supply from newly - laid hens and the weak terminal demand [52]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 35.85%. The price of corn and soybean meal showed different trends last week [56]. 3. Market Outlook - In August, the laying hen inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the egg price reached a low level in recent years. The futures market continued to decline to correct the premium. Although it has entered the seasonal peak season, the terminal demand boost is far lower than expected, showing a prominent "peak season with weak performance" feature. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [57]. 4. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price is high. - **Arbitrage**: Gradually take profit on previous arbitrage orders. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][58].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. The spot market also showed weakness, with prices in both the main production and sales areas dropping. The imbalance between supply and demand in the egg market has intensified, with high supply and weak demand due to factors such as the increase in newly - laid hens, high - temperature weather, and low consumer confidence. Although the market demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase of eggs during the peak season may be weaker than expected due to the pressure on the breeding side [5][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. By the end of last Friday, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 153,259 lots and an open interest of 203,664 lots [15]. (2) Spot Price - In the main production areas, the average egg price last week was 3.01 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty, or 7.10%. In the main sales areas, the average price was 3.04 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 yuan per catty, or 6.17%. The decline in prices in the production areas affected the sales areas, and downstream procurement became more cautious [19]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks was 3.11 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 yuan per chick, or 4.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The current market is characterized by an abundant supply of chicken chicks and weak demand [23]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.71 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 yuan per catty, or 3.22%. The decline in egg prices hit the confidence of farmers, increasing the willingness to sell, but the terminal demand was weak [27]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: In July, the national inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.292 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.04%. The number of newly - laid hens has increased month - on - month [32]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of the representative market in the main production areas was 6216.03 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.68%. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and downstream purchasers are cautious [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens at the sample points was 452,200, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. Some farmers chose to slaughter old hens, but most still maintained a pressure - stocking state [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Sales Area Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume in the Beijing and Guangdong markets decreased last week. In Beijing, the trading activity was low in the first half of the week and increased slightly at the end of the week. In Guangdong, the purchasing enthusiasm increased in the middle and late weeks [45]. - **Sales Area Sales Volume**: As of last Thursday, the weekly egg sales volume was 6003.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%. The sales volume was slightly boosted by the downstream replenishment demand [49]. (3) Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.89 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.15 days. The egg inventory increased week - on - week due to increased supply and weak demand [53]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, or 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.53 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan per catty, or 82.76%. The increase in soybean meal prices pushed up the feed cost [57]. 3. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current supply of eggs remains high, and the imbalance between supply and demand restricts the increase in egg prices during the peak season. Although the demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase may be weaker than expected. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds in the medium term [8][58][59].

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: General Demand Performance, Weak Egg Price Trend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side pressure is significant, and demand is general, leading to a decline in egg prices. The rebound of egg prices earlier led to the release of cold-storage eggs, which impacted prices. Although the September contract is a peak-season contract, the current spot price is falling, suggesting potential further decline in futures prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.33 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.31 yuan per catty from last Friday. The terminal demand at the beginning of the week did not improve significantly, the number of newly opened production continued to increase, and the continuous high-temperature weather in the northern region put pressure on egg prices. After the egg price fell, market confidence was frustrated, and the inventory in the producing areas increased. The price of old hens fell this week as the breeding side's confidence in the future was frustrated, and the terminal demand was weak [5]. 2. Supply Analysis - The shipment volume in the producing areas decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg-laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of July 25 was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of July 24 was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. In July, the inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, the approximate inventory of laying hens in production from August to November 2025 is estimated to be 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10]. 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little this week. As of August 7, the corn price was around 2,395 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price fell to 3,008 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2,579 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan per catty. The egg price fluctuated weakly this week, and the breeding profit decreased. As of August 7, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was -0.26 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty from the previous week, and the expected profit of laying hen breeding on August 1 was 13.94 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 4. Demand Analysis - The egg price was weak this week. The terminal demand was weak in the first half of the week, and the market mainly cleared inventory. As the egg price hit a new low, there was a sentiment of bottom-fishing and stockpiling in the downstream market, slightly driving the market volume. The sales volume in the selling areas decreased month-on-month. As of August 7, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7,529 tons, a decrease of 4.6% from last week. The inventory in the national egg market increased month-on-month. The number of newly opened laying hens increased significantly this week, and the supply of small-sized eggs increased, leading to a price decline. The demand decreased under the high-temperature and humid weather, and the inventory levels of all links increased. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will decrease next month. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 12 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week, and the pork price index changed little [16]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Options**: Sell put options [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts on inventory, chicken culling, cold-storage eggs, egg-laying hen breeding, price spreads, and basis, including historical data on the inventory of laying hens in production, the number of chicken culling, the price of laying hen chicks, and various price spreads and basis [22][23][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in July experienced a "sharp decline - rebound - decline" roller - coaster行情. The current supply - demand contradiction is sharp. With high inventory and a continuous increase in newly - laid hens, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Although the peak - season market is approaching, it is restricted by weak consumer recovery and resistance to high prices. It is expected that the differentiated trend of the egg futures market, with near - term weakness and long - term strength, will continue. [8][40] - The report suggests continuing the 09 - 01 contract reverse spread strategy and continuously monitoring capacity reduction and downstream demand changes. [9][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Last month, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509. The JD2508 contract hit a record low since its listing this week and continued to decline in subsequent trading days. The JD2509 contract showed an overall weak range - bound trend. As of July 31, the main JD2509 contract closed at 3522 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.45%. [5][12] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - In the main production areas, egg prices rose after falling to the lowest point of the year in mid - July, but then declined in the second half of the month due to factors such as excessive price increases inhibiting consumption and an increase in newly - laid hens. As of July 31, the average price in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, up 0.53 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. - In the main sales areas, egg prices showed a "first - down - then - up" fluctuation. As of July 31, the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, up 0.5 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. [17] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Laying Hen Inventory - In July, the laying hen inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was close to 1.3 billion, a record high, and it is expected to exceed 1.3 billion in August. The expansion of production capacity is mainly due to the slowdown of old - hen culling by farmers in a state of weak profit, forming a negative cycle of "weak profit - slow culling - high inventory". [7][21] 3.2.2 Old Hen Price - As of July 31, the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 5.89 yuan per catty, up 26.12% from the beginning of July. The market has no obvious signs of increased old - hen supply, and farmers still have confidence in the peak - season egg market, so the enthusiasm for culling is not high. [24] 3.2.3 Chicken Chick Price - Affected by the market situation of strong supply and weak demand, the price of commercial - layer chicks continued to decline in July. The average price in July was 3.59 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95%. The pressure on the profit side weakened the replenishment motivation of farmers, and the low utilization rate of hatching eggs by breeding enterprises further suppressed the chick price. [29] 3.2.4 Old - Hen Culling Progress - In July, the culling volume of old hens continued to decline, showing a decreasing trend. The culling rhythm was affected by factors such as egg - price fluctuations, farming expectations, and demand changes. The average culling age of old hens fluctuated slightly, with an overall range of 501 - 504 days. [34] 3.2.5 Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - In July, the laying hen farming cost fluctuated slightly in the range of 3.53 - 3.54 yuan per catty, showing a slight downward trend. The farming profit continued to improve, with the loss narrowing from 0.95 yuan per catty at the beginning of the month to 0.29 yuan per catty at the end of the month. [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the rising spot price boosts market sentiment, but the significant pressure on the breeding side may limit the price increase of eggs [8][60]. - It is recommended to go long with a light position on dips and continuously monitor the recovery of demand and the reduction of production capacity [9][61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Trend Review 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509, with the market oscillating. As of last Friday's close, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3,595 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 340,339 lots and an open interest of 257,912 lots [5][13]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last Friday, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.05 yuan per jin, up 0.13 yuan per jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per jin, up 0.15 yuan per jin from the previous day [17]. - Last week, the egg price in the main producing areas showed a strong trend. At the beginning of the week, the market's bullish sentiment increased, the inventory decreased, and the egg price rose accordingly. In the middle of the week, the terminal procurement slowed down, and the price stabilized. Near the weekend, the market's bullish sentiment emerged, and the egg price rose again. The egg price in the selling areas continued to be strong, driven by the rising price in the producing areas, with active downstream procurement. The high - temperature weather led to a decline in the laying rate and a shortage of supply in the producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the arrival volume in the selling areas, and the egg price rose steadily under the dual support of supply and demand [7][18]. 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the chicken chick price continued to be weak. The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 3.74 yuan per chick, with a month - on - month decline of 0.53% and a year - on - year increase of 15.79%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 70%. The high inventory of laying hens and the continuous loss of breeding enterprises, combined with the cautious expectation of the future market and the difficulty of breeding management in summer, led to low replenishment enthusiasm and a significant slowdown in the chick - arranging progress of breeding enterprises [22]. 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the old hen price continued to rise. The average price of old hens in key producing areas was 4.85 yuan per jin, up 0.19 yuan per jin from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.08%. The rising egg price boosted the confidence of the breeding side in the future egg market, and the rising old hen price further strengthened the bullish expectation of the breeding side. The overall culling willingness was low, the slaughter volume decreased significantly, and the circulation efficiency of the live - poultry market improved [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in July is expected to increase month - on - month. The actual slaughter volume of old hens this month is expected to be less than the theoretical value, and the inventory of in - production laying hens may increase month - on - month, with an estimated value of about 1.285 billion [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in the main producing areas increased month - on - month. Last week, the shipping volume of representative markets in the main producing areas was 6,229.57 tons, up 1.30% month - on - month and down 16.29% year - on - year. The rising egg price drove the downstream procurement enthusiasm, but the decline in the laying rate due to weather factors restricted the shipping rhythm [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens was 489,600, down 7.45% month - on - month, and the average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. The rising egg price led to a strong reluctance to sell among breeders, and the slaughter enthusiasm decreased significantly [41]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the selling areas decreased. At the beginning of last week, the price increase in the producing and selling areas led to an increase in the arrival volume, but as the egg price stabilized and the temperature was high, the arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Sales Volume in Selling Areas**: As of last Thursday, the egg sales volume was 5,757.91 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month. The egg price rebounded, and the selling areas accelerated inventory clearance. Affected by the high - temperature weather, the inventory in each circulation link was low, and the terminal and food enterprises only purchased as needed [50]. 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.5 days, down 0.03 days from the previous day, with a decrease of 5.66%. The circulation - link inventory was 0.73 days, down 0.01 days from the previous day, with a decrease of 1.35%. The egg inventory decreased month - on - month. The low - price sales were fast, and the decline in the laying rate due to high - temperature weather led to a tight supply and a faster inventory clearance [54]. 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.53 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan per jin month - on - month, with a decline of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.77 yuan per jin, up 0.18 yuan per jin month - on - month, with a growth rate of 18.95%. The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, the breeding cost decreased slightly, and the breeding profit rebounded [59].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Egg Weekly Report: Inventory Declines, Egg Prices Stabilize [1] - Industry: Egg Industry - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Egg prices have stabilized after a decline, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom as the rainy season ends and food factories stock up before the Mid-Autumn Festival [16] Group 4: Content Summary by Section 4.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.58 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 2.79 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday. Egg prices were under pressure due to high temperature, high humidity, school holidays, and an increase in newly laid eggs. However, after hitting a new low for the year, the decline may be limited, and some low-price areas saw a rebound at the end of the week. The price of old hens fluctuated strongly [5] 4.2 Supply Analysis - This week, the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased slightly month-on-month. From July 4 - 11, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 16270000, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 504 days, a decrease of 2 days from the previous week. In June, the national in-laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the in-laying hen inventory from July to October 2025 is estimated to be 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [9] 4.3 Cost Analysis - As of July 11, the corn price was around 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 2924 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2572 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.82 yuan/jin of egg feed cost. Corn and soybean meal prices decreased slightly this week, leading to a slight decrease in egg chicken breeding costs. Egg prices stabilized after a decline, but the average weekly egg price decreased month-on-month, so the loss of egg chicken breeding continued to expand. As of July 10, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.68 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. On July 4, the expected profit of egg chicken breeding was 13.38 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/jin from the previous week [12] 4.4 Demand Analysis - The sales volume in the selling areas increased first and then decreased this week, with a month-on-month decrease in the total sales volume. As of July 4, the sales volume of representative selling areas was 7606 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The national egg market inventory decreased slightly month-on-month. As of July 4, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous week. This week, the vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [15] 4.5 Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom. - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [16]