1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a state of "strong supply and weak demand" as the Spring Festival stocking nears its end. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [5][16][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.53 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival [5] - The price of old hens has been weakly adjusted after falling from a high. The market demand support is average, and the supply - demand of the old hen market is relatively stable [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - According to Zhuochuang data, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the main producing areas of the country from February 6th was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6th was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [10] - In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly output of egg - chicken chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was 43.22 million, a 9% month - on - month increase and little change year - on - year [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of February 5th, the corn price was around 2,368 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,176 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,610 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs [13] - The feed price fluctuated little this week, and the cost per catty of eggs was flat month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs decreased. As of January 15th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - As the festival stocking nears the end, the market starts risk control in advance. The sales in markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dongguan have slowed down significantly, and the price is under pressure. The sales in the selling areas have decreased month - on - month. As of February 6th, the weekly egg sales in the national representative selling areas were 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [16] - After the festival stocking ended, egg prices entered a rapid decline cycle, and egg inventories showed a "rapid inventory accumulation" trend. The inventory days in the production and circulation links increased month - on - month for many consecutive days. As of the week of January 23rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.26 days, with little change from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.45 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index rebounded slightly. On February 4th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 132. The pork price also rebounded slightly. As of January 31st, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is basically coming to an end. The market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [17] - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided in the text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data from 2018 - 2025 for different contract months (January, May, September), including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc., but no specific analysis is made [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In January, the egg market was boosted by the Spring Festival stocking effect, with egg prices rising significantly and a strong divergence between the spot and futures markets. In the short - term, the market was in a state of short - term supply - demand tightness, and the low inventory at each stage supported the spot price. The futures market showed a large discount due to the pessimistic expectation of a sharp decline in post - festival demand. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner. The far - month contracts have the potential for valuation repair [7][8][72] - The recommended operation strategies are to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - In January, the main contract of egg futures switched to JD2603, showing an oscillating trend. The highest price in the month was 3,101 yuan/500 kg, and the lowest was 2,970 yuan/500 kg. As of last Friday, the contract was reported at 3,002 yuan/500 kg, down 1.51% [5][13] 3.1.2 Spot Price - In January, egg prices rose significantly under the boost of the Spring Festival holiday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 yuan/jin (16.23%); the average price in the main selling areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 yuan/jin (14.66%) [7][18] 3.1.3 Basis - As of January 30, the egg basis was 998 yuan/500 kg, at a recent high. The strong performance of the spot market diverged from the futures market [22] 3.1.4 Chicken Chick Price - Driven by the increase in egg prices, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the breeding sector increased significantly in January. The average price of commercial - generation egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.83 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.12% [7][26] 3.1.5 Old Hen Price - In January, the price of old hens oscillated upward, and the breeding sector was reluctant to sell and hold back inventory. The average price of old hens was 4.41 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 yuan/jin (8.09%) [7][31] 3.1.6 Laying Hen Inventory - In January, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The inventory of laying hens was still at a high level in the past five - year average, and the supply pressure was not significantly alleviated [35] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in January was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The new production capacity in January corresponded to the chicks replenished in September last year, and the farmers were cautious in replenishing [35] - **Chicken Chick Sales**: In January, the total sales of chicken chicks were 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [42] - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Affected by the pressure to hold back inventory, the slaughter volume of old hens in January decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points was 2.9007 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, one day earlier than in December [48] - **Old Hen Slaughter by Enterprises**: Driven by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, the overall slaughter volume of the industry increased significantly in January. The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample slaughter enterprises was 10.0792 million, a month - on - month increase of 12.54% [52] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Vehicle Arrivals in Sales Areas**: Affected by Spring Festival stocking, the downstream market stocked up actively. In January, the number of vehicle arrivals in the Beijing market was 360, a decrease of 40 vehicles (10%) compared with December; the number of vehicle arrivals in the Guangdong market was 2,670, an increase of 23 vehicles (0.87%) compared with the previous month [56] - **Egg Sales in Sales Areas**: In January, the total egg sales in the sales areas were 32.19 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 thousand tons (9.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 60.55% [62] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - In January, the breeding cost of egg - laying hens increased slightly, and the loss margin narrowed significantly. The average breeding cost of egg - laying hens was 133.59 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan/jin (0.85%), and the breeding profit was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.46 yuan/jin [66] 3.2.4 Inventory Situation - In January, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of January 30, the production - link inventory was 0.58 days, a decrease of 0.44 days compared with December; the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, a decrease of 0.58 days compared with December [71] 3.3 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Since January, the concentrated release of Spring Festival stocking demand, combined with the concentrated release of cold - storage eggs in December and the month - on - month decline in egg - laying hen production capacity, has led to a short - term supply - demand tightness in the market, and the inventory pressure at each stage has been alleviated. Near the end of the month, the improvement in breeding profits has led to a slowdown in the culling of old hens, and the terminal stocking is coming to an end. However, the low inventory at each stage still supports the spot egg price. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner [8][72] 3.3.2 Operation Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Remain on the sidelines - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines - **Options Trading**: Remain on the sidelines [8][73]

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing increased supply pressure and weak demand, leading to further declines in egg and old hen prices, pushing the industry into a loss-making zone [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In Q4 2025, the average price of eggs was 2.96 yuan per jin, down 5.73% from Q3, while the average price of old hens fell to 4.03 yuan per jin, a decrease of 18.75% [1] - The average inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, a decrease of 0.51% quarter-on-quarter, although still at historically high levels [1][5] - Sales volume in consumption areas decreased by 10.56% quarter-on-quarter, indicating weakened terminal consumption and deepening supply-demand contradictions [1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The cost of producing eggs in Q4 was 2.95 yuan per jin, a decrease of 2.64% from Q3, primarily due to falling feed prices [3] - Despite lower production costs, the average gross profit per jin of eggs fell to -0.19 yuan, worsening by 0.10 yuan compared to Q3, indicating widespread losses in the breeding sector [3][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, the egg market is expected to see a rebalancing phase with supply pressure easing and demand initially increasing before declining [1][7] - The price of eggs is projected to rise initially in January, potentially reaching 3.30-3.50 yuan per jin, before declining again in February due to reduced demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance in Q4, leading to a decline in prices for both eggs and hens, pushing the industry into a loss-making phase. Expectations for Q1 2026 suggest a potential rebalancing of supply and demand, with prices likely to rise initially before falling again [2][18]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q4, the average price of eggs was 2.96 yuan per jin, down 5.73% from Q3, while the average price of hens fell to 4.03 yuan per jin, a decrease of 18.75% [3][19]. - The average cost of producing one jin of eggs decreased to 2.95 yuan, a reduction of 2.64%, but the drop in egg prices was more significant, leading to an average gross profit loss of 0.19 yuan per jin, worsening by 0.10 yuan compared to Q3 [19][25]. - The inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, a slight decrease of 0.51% from the previous quarter, indicating a high historical level despite the downward trend [4][28]. Price Trends - Egg prices showed a "high-level retreat and bottom oscillation" pattern in Q4, peaking at 3.39 yuan per jin on October 1, then dropping to a low of 2.76 yuan per jin by October 13, marking a maximum decline of 18.58% [5][21]. - The average price of hens also followed a similar trend, with a quarterly average of 4.03 yuan per jin, down 18.75%, reflecting a significant drop from earlier in the quarter [7][24]. Profitability and Cost Structure - Despite a decrease in production costs, the decline in egg prices has led to an expanded loss in gross profit margins, with the average gross profit for eggs falling to -0.19 yuan per jin [8][25]. - The ongoing losses have resulted in a cautious approach to restocking among producers, with an increased willingness to sell off existing stock, indicating a shift towards reducing production capacity [10][27]. Market Demand and Sales - Sales in key markets decreased by 10.56% in Q4, attributed to the end of holiday demand and adverse weather conditions affecting storage [30]. - The overall demand for eggs has shown a structural change, with large-scale enterprises balancing their operations across regions, reducing inter-regional transport needs and impacting traditional sales channels [30]. Future Outlook - The egg production cycle suggests a continued decrease in inventory levels over the next three months, with expected reductions of 0.50% to 0.80% [31]. - Demand is anticipated to rise in January due to the Spring Festival, but a subsequent decline in February and March may lead to further price drops despite reduced supply [31][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to continue to rise slightly until the New Year's Day, with the focus of the egg price shifting upwards [5][10] - The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, while the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, with little change from last Friday. After a small - scale price increase during the week, the egg price entered a stable and wait - and - see state. The inventory in each link decreased, and the red - powder price difference returned to a reasonable level [5] - The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable overall with narrow local adjustments. It is expected that the supply and demand of the old hen market will be in a stalemate next week, and the weekly average price may be around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - On December 18, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas across the country was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled chickens in the week of December 18 was 486 days, the same as the previous week [10] - In November, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 0.008 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in November was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of December 17, the corn price was around 2349 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3118 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2580 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin of feed cost per jin of eggs [13] - The price of corn decreased and the price of soybean meal increased this week, resulting in a slight increase in the cost of per - jin eggs. The average price of eggs in the main production areas increased slightly, so the profit per jin of eggs also increased. As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - After the festival, the demand in the sales areas became weak. Coupled with the large inventory pressure in the production areas, the overall market sales were under pressure. The market sales volume decreased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from last week and at a low level over the years [16] - The inventory in the production link decreased month - on - month, and the inventory in the circulation link increased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index and the pork price both increased slightly. On December 17, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 142.01, and the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.81 yuan/kg, with little change from last week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] - Single - side: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory (Zhuochuang) - Data on the inventory of laying hens in production and the replenishment of brooding chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [21] 3.2.2 Culled Chicken Situation - Data on the weekly slaughter volume of culled chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [22] 3.2.3 Laying Hen Farming Situation - Data on the age of culled chickens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas are involved, but specific data are not described in detail [26] 3.2.4 Price Difference and Basis - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the price differences of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts over the years are presented in the form of charts [29][30][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak, and the main contract was switched to 2602. As of last Friday's close, the main egg JD2602 contract was reported at 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.03%; the egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.26% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.11 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.97% [7][18]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in the country was 2.71 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the old hen price increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.49% [26]. 3.2基本面分析 - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month. As of the end of November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in December will still decline slightly [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased month - on - month. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6,357.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.08% [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 661,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08%; the average slaughter age was 488 days, with a maximum of 500 days and a minimum of 475 days [40]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales in the representative markets in the sales areas were 6,432.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: Last week, the arrival in the Beijing market was 81 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 11 trucks; the arrival in the Guangdong market was 513 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 7 trucks [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the old hen slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. The old hen slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 1.9585 million, a decrease of 124,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.95 days, the same as the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous Friday [57]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 6.25%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan per ton; the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,122 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 39 yuan per ton [61]. - **Related Products Situation** - **White - Feathered Broiler**: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.39 yuan per chick, up 0.06 yuan per chick from the previous week; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.63 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [65]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: The national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.89 yuan per catty, up 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [70]. 3.3后市展望 - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3.4操作策略 - **Single - Side**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously pay attention to the old hen elimination rhythm. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: None [9][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg price is stable with a slight decline, and there is a possibility of a fall next week. The price of old hens is mainly stable with limited upward space. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the near - month contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the far - month contracts of April and May can be considered for long - position building at low prices [5][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week is 2.8 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.13 yuan per catty, down 0.08 yuan from last Friday. The price in the main producing areas first fell and then rose, stimulating bottom - fishing and replenishment demand. The "Double 12" e - commerce festival led to a slight improvement in terminal consumption, but the upward momentum of egg prices has weakened. The price of old hens is stable with a narrow increase, but the downstream demand is weak [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - In the week of December 12, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 19.84 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of December 12 was 486 days, 2 days less than the previous week. In November, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and lower than the previous expectation. The monthly egg - chick hatching volume of sample enterprises in November was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of December 12, the corn price was around 2356 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3108 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2581 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan per catty of eggs. The egg - laying hen breeding cost increased slightly this week. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs as of December 12 was - 0.19 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan from the previous week. The expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding on December 12 was - 10.95 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.67 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 12" e - commerce festival, the sales volume in the selling areas increased month - on - month. As of the week of December 5, the egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7127 tons, with little change from the previous week. The production - link inventory decreased month - on - month, and the circulation - link inventory increased month - on - month. As of the week of December 12, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.01 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that the recent increase in culling volume has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. The near - month contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the far - month contracts of April and May can be considered for long - position building at low prices. For unilateral trading, the January contract is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and long - position building can be considered for far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory (Zhuochuang) - The data shows the in - production egg - laying hen inventory and brooding chick replenishment from 2018 to 2025 [21] 3.2.2 Culling Situation - The data shows the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens from 2020 to 2025 [22] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Situation - It includes the culling age of culled chickens and the average price of egg - chicks in the main producing areas [26] 3.2.4 Spread and Basis - The data shows the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spreads of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts from 2018 to 2025 [29][30][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens in production is gradually shrinking but remains at a relatively high level. The Double 12 e - commerce promotion and the New Year's Day holiday support short - term demand, but due to the overall weak consumer end, the boosting effect is limited. In the short term, the inventory in the production and circulation links still needs to be digested, the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change, and the near - month contracts are restricted by real - world pressure and still have a small adjustment space, and are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][65] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1.走势回顾 (Review of Trends) 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market showed a weak oscillation. As of the close on Friday, the main egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,117 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 0.29%; the egg JD2605 contract was reported at 3,589 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 0.19% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 5.15%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.07 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 4.23% [7][16] 3.1.3. Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of national commercial chicken chicks was 2.75 yuan per chick, remaining the same month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 37.07%. Currently, the breeding end lacks confidence in the future market and has a strong wait - and - see attitude [20] 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the price of old hens increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.03 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 1.26% [23] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **产区发货量情况 (Production Area Shipment Volume)**: Last week, the shipment volume of the main egg production areas decreased month - on - month. The shipment volume of the sample market was 6,173.67 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.26% [27] - **老母鸡出栏情况 (Old Hen Slaughter Volume)**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 664,300, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%; the average slaughter age was 489 days, with a maximum of 503 days and a minimum of 476 days [32] 3.2.2. Demand Side - **销区市场销量 (Sales Volume in Sales Areas)**: Last week, the egg sales volume in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales volume of the representative markets in the sales areas was 6,510.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53% [36] - **销区到货情况 (Arrival Volume in Sales Areas)**: Last week, the arrival volume in the Beijing market was 88 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 4 trucks; the arrival volume in the Guangdong market was 605 trucks, a month - on - month increase of 1 truck [40] - **老母鸡屠宰量 (Old Hen Slaughter Volume)**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. The slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises was 2.1259 million, a decrease of 248,700 compared with the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.47% [41][43] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.02 days compared with the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, an increase of 0.08 days compared with the previous Friday [47] 3.2.4. Egg Chicken Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the average breeding cost of egg chickens was 3.5 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.86%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 19.64%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,295 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan per ton, and the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,083 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 28 yuan per ton [51] 3.2.5. Related Product Situation - **白羽肉鸡 (White - Feathered Broilers)**: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicken chicks was 3.29 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 yuan per chick, with a month - on - month growth rate of 2.17%; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.54 yuan per chick, with a month - on - month growth rate of 1.14% [57] - **817小白鸡 (817 Small White Chickens)**: The weekly average price of 817 small white chickens in the national market was 3.78 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 yuan per catty, with a month - on - month growth rate of 2.16% [63] 3.3.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens in production is gradually shrinking but remains at a relatively high level. The Double 12 e - commerce promotion and the New Year's Day holiday support short - term demand, but due to the overall weak consumer end, the boosting effect is limited. In the short term, the inventory in the production and circulation links still needs to be digested, the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change, and the near - month contracts are restricted by real - world pressure and still have a small adjustment space, and are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][65] 3.4.操作策略 (Operation Strategy) - **单边 (Single - Side Trading)**: Hold short positions cautiously and closely monitor the rhythm of old hen culling - **套利 (Arbitrage)**: Wait and see - **期权 (Options)**: Wait and see [8][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg futures market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the main contract hitting a phased high. However, the main contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan. The spot market prices of eggs in production and sales areas declined slightly week - on - week. The chicken苗 price remained flat but was significantly lower year - on - year, indicating weak replenishment confidence in the breeding sector. The supply pressure persists, but the demand has slightly improved. The market has expectations for the seasonal demand improvement during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, yet the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.走势回顾 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market was volatile and rising. The main contract JD2601 closed at 3,293 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.73% week - on - week, and the JD2605 contract closed at 3,608 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 1.46% week - on - week [14]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the average egg prices in the main production and sales areas decreased slightly week - on - week. The average price in the main production areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, down 0.34%, and in the main sales areas was 2.94 yuan per catty, down 1.34% [18]. 3.1.3. Chicken苗 Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken苗 in the country was 2.75 yuan per chick, the same as the previous week but down 36.19% year - on - year, reflecting weak confidence and a negative attitude towards replenishment in the breeding sector [22]. 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the price of old hens was under pressure. The average price in the sample market was 3.98 yuan per catty, down 1.97% week - on - week [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the fourth - quarter inventory, but the de - capacity effect is slow, and it is difficult for the inventory to break below 1.3 billion by the end of the year [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased by 1.89% week - on - week but decreased by 20.49% year - on - year [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens increased by 2.81% week - on - week, with an average slaughter age of 489 days [39]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 4.89% week - on - week but decreased by 2.48% year - on - year [43]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: In the Beijing market, the arrival increased by 5.75% week - on - week, while in the Guangdong market, it decreased by 3.51% week - on - week [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume Analysis**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises increased by 2.96% week - on - week [52]. 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1 day, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous Friday, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a decrease of 0.14 days [55]. 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.47 yuan per catty, up 0.29% week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, down 3.7% week - on - week. The national average price of corn was 2,266 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton week - on - week, and the national average price of soybean meal was 3,055 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton week - on - week [60]. 3.2.5. Related Products Situation - **White - feather Broiler**: Last week, the national average price of white - feather broilers was 3.5 yuan per catty, stable week - on - week but down 8.14% year - on - year. The average price of white - feather chicken苗 was 3.22 yuan per chick, down 3.88% week - on - week and 31.49% year - on - year [66]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: Last week, the national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.7 yuan per catty, down 2.12% week - on - week [70]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The main egg contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan, but the bulls did not completely lose ground. Fundamentally, the growth rate of the in - laying hen inventory is decreasing, the spot supply pressure is still being released, the downstream sales have marginally improved, and the cold storage has started to buy at low prices due to the cooling weather. The market has expectations for the improvement of seasonal demand during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, but the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [71]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly after the futures price stabilizes above the 3,300 - yuan integer mark. Conservative investors should wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The egg prices are expected to remain low in the short term, with a potential for a slight rebound starting in July 2026, influenced by the ongoing culling of laying hens and seasonal demand fluctuations [5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 13, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas is 3.08 yuan per jin, while the feed cost per jin is 3.00 yuan, leading to a negative profit margin for producers [1]. - The average profit per jin of eggs has decreased to -0.20 yuan in November, down from -0.12 yuan earlier in the second half of the year, indicating worsening financial conditions for producers [1]. Group 2: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing increase in the culling of laying hens is expected to lead to a gradual decline in the number of laying hens, with projections indicating a significant drop to approximately 1.21 billion hens by December 2026 [3]. - A tightening supply, coupled with stable consumer demand, is anticipated to fundamentally alter the market dynamics, potentially alleviating the current weak price conditions for eggs and laying hens [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a phase of prolonged low prices to a phase of slight price recovery, with the turning point for egg prices likely occurring around July 2026 [5]. - The timing and extent of the price rebound will depend on the concentration and duration of the culling process; a rapid and concentrated culling could lead to a quicker and more substantial price recovery, while a slow and dispersed culling would result in a prolonged recovery period [5].