展望2026年一季度，在供应压力降低，需求先增后降的预期下，产能与价格处再平衡阶段，预计鸡蛋、 老母鸡价格或先涨后降。 根据卓创数据监测，2025年四季度迄今鸡蛋均价2.96元／斤，较三季度价格下跌5.73%；老母鸡均价跌 至4.03元／斤，环比下滑18.75%。尽管季度内饲料等成本回落，单斤鸡蛋成本降至2.95元，环比降幅 2.64%，但蛋价跌幅更深，导致养殖利润进一步恶化，单斤鸡蛋毛利润季度平均为-0.19元，较三季度亏 损扩大0.10元。 与此同时，主产品价格的低迷与年内养殖单位长时间的亏损，触发鸡场补栏谨慎及出栏积极性的增加， 截至11月末产蛋鸡存栏量季度均值约为13.56亿只，环比减幅0.51%，虽产能进入下滑通道，但仍处历史 高位，叠加需求进入消费淡季，销区销量环比减幅10.56%，终端消费走弱，供大于求矛盾加深。 老母鸡价格走势与鸡蛋价格走势基本相同，在四季度表现出跌后小幅翘尾。截至12月25日，四季度老母 鸡均价4.03元／斤，环比下跌18.75%，季度内价格自10月初4.45元／斤震荡跌至11月21日的3.78元／ 斤，累计跌幅达15.06%，此后略有回升，但整体仍处于近十年最低水平。 监测 ...

根据卓创数据监测，四季度鸡蛋均价2.96元/斤，较三季度价格下跌5.73%；老母鸡均价跌至4.03元/斤， 环比下滑18.75%。尽管季度内饲料等成本回落，单斤鸡蛋成本降至2.95元，环比降幅2.64%，但蛋价跌 幅更深，导致养殖利润进一步恶化，单斤鸡蛋毛利润季度平均为-0.19元，较三季度亏损扩大0.10元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯鸡蛋市场高级分析师刘宏 【导语】四季度蛋鸡市场供应虽有降低，但支撑动力不足，而需求在中秋节、国庆节结束后，整体处于 疲软状态，供需压力环比增加，鸡蛋、老母鸡价格重心进一步下移，行业整体步入亏损区间。2026年一 季度在供应压力降低，需求先增后降的预期下，产能与价格处再平衡阶段，预计主产品价格或先涨后 降。 四季度供需失衡，蛋鸡行业步入深度调整期 | 指标名称 | 四季度均值 | 单位 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鸡蛋价格 | 2. 96 | 元/斤 | -5.73% | | 老母鸡价格 | 4.03 | 元/斤 | -18. 75% | | 单斤鸡蛋成本 | 2. 95 | 元 | -2 ...

鸡蛋周报：需求不及预期 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 87/87/87 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价3元/斤，较上周五变化不大，主销区均价3.22元/斤，较上周五变化不大。周内全国鸡蛋市场上半 周市场情绪稍有好转，盼涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1走势回顾 - **Futures Price**: Last week, the egg futures market was weak, and the main contract was switched to 2602. As of last Friday's close, the main egg JD2602 contract was reported at 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.03%; the egg JD2601 contract was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.26% [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: Last week, the egg prices in the national production and sales areas increased month - on - month. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.11 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.97% [7][18]. - **Chick Price**: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in the country was 2.71 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: Last week, the old hen price increased month - on - month. The average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.49% [26]. 3.2基本面分析 - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month. As of the end of November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in December will still decline slightly [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased month - on - month. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6,357.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.08% [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens was 661,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08%; the average slaughter age was 488 days, with a maximum of 500 days and a minimum of 475 days [40]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. The egg sales in the representative markets in the sales areas were 6,432.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [44]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: Last week, the arrival in the Beijing market was 81 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 11 trucks; the arrival in the Guangdong market was 513 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 7 trucks [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the old hen slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. The old hen slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 1.9585 million, a decrease of 124,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.95 days, the same as the previous Friday; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous Friday [57]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, with a growth rate of 6.25%. The national average price of the corn market was 2,310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan per ton; the national average price of the soybean meal market was 3,122 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 39 yuan per ton [61]. - **Related Products Situation** - **White - Feathered Broiler**: Last week, the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.39 yuan per chick, up 0.06 yuan per chick from the previous week; the average price of white - feathered broilers was 3.63 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [65]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: The national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.89 yuan per catty, up 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [70]. 3.3后市展望 - Affected by the low replenishment in August, the inventory of laying hens has gradually shrunk but remains relatively high. The double 12 e - commerce promotion and New Year's Day holiday effect provide short - term support for demand, but the overall weak consumption pattern remains unchanged. The demand boost is limited. In the short term, the inventory in production and circulation links needs to be digested, and the weak supply - demand balance pattern is difficult to change. It is expected to continue the low - level shock [8][71]. 3.4操作策略 - **Single - Side**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously pay attention to the old hen elimination rhythm. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: None [9][72].

鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 基 础 色 第二部分周度数据追踪 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 辅 助 色 137/137/137 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.8元/斤，较上周五下跌0.12元/斤，主销区均价3.13元/斤，较上周五下跌0.08元/斤。本周主产区价 格先跌后 ...

研究报告 现货回暖乏力 库存约束下盘面上行受限 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 上周全国产销区鸡蛋价格环比上涨，主产区均价 3.06 元/斤， 环比涨 0.15 元/斤；主销区均价 3.07 元/斤，环比涨 0.13 元/斤； 鸡苗均价 2.75 元/羽，环比持平，养殖端对后市信心不足、观望 情绪浓厚，主产区发货量环比减 0.69%，老母鸡出栏量降 0.7%， 平均出栏日龄 489 天；上周北京市场到货环比减 4 车，广东市场 环比增 1 车；库存方面，生产及流通环节库存分别增 0.02 天、0.08 天，当前库存压力仍存。养殖成本 3.5 元/斤，单斤养殖盈利亏损 收窄至-0.45 元/斤。 【后市展望】 摘要： 受 8 月补栏低迷影响，在产蛋鸡存栏逐渐收缩，但当前仍处 相对高位，双 12 电商促销、元旦节日托底短期需求，但受消费端 整体偏弱制约， ...

研究报告 鸡蛋期现分化下，12 月能否迎来回暖？ 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周鸡蛋期货盘面震荡上涨，周内主力合约创出阶段性新高， 截至上周五收盘，鸡蛋主力 JD2601 合约报收 3293 元/500 千克， 涨 0.73%；鸡蛋 JD2605 合约报收 3608 元/500 千克，涨 1.46%。 【基本面分析】 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 上周全国产销区鸡蛋价格环比微跌，主产区均价报 2.91 元/ 斤，环比跌 0.34%；主销区均价报 2.94 元/斤，环比跌 1.34%。鸡 苗价格持平于 2.75 元/羽，同比大幅下滑，显示养殖端补栏信心 不足。供给方面，产区发货量与老母鸡出栏量分别增加 1.89%和 2.81%，供应压力仍存。需求端稍有好转，销区销量环比增 4.89%， 但到货情况分化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The egg prices are expected to remain low in the short term, with a potential for a slight rebound starting in July 2026, influenced by the ongoing culling of laying hens and seasonal demand fluctuations [5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 13, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas is 3.08 yuan per jin, while the feed cost per jin is 3.00 yuan, leading to a negative profit margin for producers [1]. - The average profit per jin of eggs has decreased to -0.20 yuan in November, down from -0.12 yuan earlier in the second half of the year, indicating worsening financial conditions for producers [1]. Group 2: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing increase in the culling of laying hens is expected to lead to a gradual decline in the number of laying hens, with projections indicating a significant drop to approximately 1.21 billion hens by December 2026 [3]. - A tightening supply, coupled with stable consumer demand, is anticipated to fundamentally alter the market dynamics, potentially alleviating the current weak price conditions for eggs and laying hens [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a phase of prolonged low prices to a phase of slight price recovery, with the turning point for egg prices likely occurring around July 2026 [5]. - The timing and extent of the price rebound will depend on the concentration and duration of the culling process; a rapid and concentrated culling could lead to a quicker and more substantial price recovery, while a slow and dispersed culling would result in a prolonged recovery period [5].

目录 鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 GALAXYFUTURES 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 1 227/82/4 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.95元/斤，较上周五上涨0.02元/斤，主销区均价3.21元/斤，较上周五上涨0.15元/斤。周初，市场延续上周反 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply - demand mismatch in the egg market remains unchanged, and egg prices are oscillating at the bottom. The near - term futures contracts are suppressed by high short - term production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the egg futures market showed a differentiated performance. Near - term contracts declined weakly, and far - term contracts reached a new stage high during the week and then fell back. As of last Friday's close, the main egg contract JD2512 was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.26%, and the JD2605 contract was reported at 3477 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.17% [6][15]. - **Spot Prices**: Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country increased month - on - month. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.01 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty or 3.43% month - on - month; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 3.03% month - on - month [20]. - **Chick Prices**: The average price of commercial chicks in the country last week was 2.76 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick or 0.36% from the previous week, with a year - on - year decline of 25.2%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%, and some are as high as 60% - 70%. Medium and large - scale enterprises maintain rigid replenishment, and the overall egg market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [24]. - **Old Hen Prices**: Driven by the slight increase in egg prices in the production and sales areas, the price of old hens rebounded slightly last week. The average price of old hens in the sample market was 4.14 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.49% month - on - month [28]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the inventory in the fourth quarter, but the effect of production capacity reduction is slow. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will hardly fall below 1.3 billion before the end of the year [33]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume of the main egg production areas decreased month - on - month last week. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6186.06 tons, down 1.81% month - on - month and 18.96% year - on - year [37]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 631,200, up 0.64% month - on - month, with an average slaughter age of 494 days, with the highest average age being 510 days and the lowest being 480 days [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The sales volume of eggs in the sales areas increased month - on - month last week. The sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 6501.44 tons, up 0.21% month - on - month and down 4.91% year - on - year [44]. - **Arrival Volume in Sales Areas**: In Beijing, the arrival volume was 95 trucks, up 5 trucks or 5.56% month - on - month; in Guangdong, the arrival volume was 580 trucks, down 35 trucks or 6.42% month - on - month [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Analysis**: The total weekly slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises last week was 2.4775 million, an increase of 99,900 or 4.2% from the previous week [48][50]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.1 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days [54]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The average breeding cost of laying hens last week was 3.44 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty or 0.29% month - on - month. The breeding profit was - 0.43 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 17.31% month - on - month. Although the breeding profit rebounded slightly, it was still in the loss range [58]. - **Related Products** - **White - Feathered Broilers**: The average price of white - feathered broilers in the country last week was 3.45 yuan per catty, with a month - on - month decline of 1.15% and a year - on - year decline of 8.24%; the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.35 yuan per chick, down 0.10 yuan per chick or 2.90% month - on - month, with a year - on - year decline of 22.09% [63]. - **817 Small White Chickens**: The weekly average price of 817 small white chickens in the national market was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan per catty or 0.78% from the previous week [68]. 3.3. Market Outlook The main egg contract encountered obvious resistance near 3240 yuan last week. The futures market lacks supply - demand fundamental support and then started to oscillate and decline. The spot egg price remained between 2.9 - 3.1 yuan per catty, hovering around the feed cost line, and has not significantly stimulated the farmers' willingness to slaughter, resulting in slow production capacity reduction. Therefore, the near - term contracts are suppressed by short - term high production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts still depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Hold short positions cautiously and continuously monitor the culling progress of the breeding end. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage opportunity. - **Options**: Wait and see [10][70].