融资担保比例提高后，交易型资金如何反应？ ——资金行为研究双周报（2026/01/09-2026/1/22） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 2、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节奏 将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 3、《开年市场新高后或如何演绎？》 2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 市场资金流向概览：机构流出动能阶段性收敛，市场共识重新凝聚。1 月 12 日后机构 资金流出一度加速，但于 20 日后趋于收敛；散户资金对全 A 及创业板的流入在高位 后亦于 14 日起斜率放缓。全 A 与创业板资金加速度在 13 日及 21 日前后出现剧烈波 动，显示存量博弈依然活跃。截至 1 月 22 日，三大指数散户与机构净流入率差额显 著收窄并向零轴收敛，市场进入力量均衡期。 相 ...

Market Overview - The market has entered a period of equilibrium as the net inflow rate difference between retail and institutional investors has significantly narrowed towards zero as of January 21 [5][10][13] - Retail investor inflows into the entire A-share market and ChiNext have slowed down since January 14, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5][10] Capital Flow by Market Capitalization and Valuation Style - Institutional outflows from large-cap, high-valuation indices have decreased, while retail investors continue to show significant net inflows into high-valuation styles [14][15] - The net outflow from small-cap, low-valuation indices remains stable, suggesting a divergence in investment strategies between institutional and retail investors [14][15] Capital Flow by Major Industry Style - Institutional interest in defensive assets has increased, with a notable net inflow into dividend styles, while retail investors have shown outflows in this category [18][19] - The technology and cyclical manufacturing sectors have seen a convergence in institutional outflows, indicating a potential shift in focus towards more defensive sectors [18][19] Capital Flow by Primary Industry - In the upstream resources sector, there is a continued trend of institutional outflows from non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, while retail investors have significantly increased their inflows [23][24] - The defense and military industry has shown signs of institutional buying strength, with net inflow rates indicating a potential new round of investment [25][26] - The downstream essential consumption sector has seen a shift in institutional behavior, with continuous net outflows from the pharmaceutical and biological sectors since January 14 [29][30] - The downstream discretionary consumption sector has experienced significant outflows from institutions, particularly in light industry manufacturing, while the social services sector has seen synchronized net inflows from both retail and institutional investors [33][34] Leverage Capital Situation - As of January 21, the margin trading balance has reached approximately 2.72 trillion yuan, indicating a maintained liquidity level, although the growth rate has slowed [52][56] - The average collateral ratio in the market has adjusted but remains high, reflecting a cautious approach among investors [52][56] - The overall trading activity in margin financing has decreased, with the proportion of margin trading transactions dropping to 10.24% [53][56]