Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of the A-share market in the last two months of the year over the past decade, highlighting that large-cap value and dividend styles tend to outperform, while small-cap and growth styles lag behind. Consumer and cyclical sectors show relatively better performance [1][7]. Market Performance Summary - In the last two months of each year, large-cap value and dividend styles have consistently outperformed small-cap and growth styles, indicating a trend in investor preference [7]. - The historical performance of major indices from 2015 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with notable years such as 2020 where the large-cap growth index rose by 16.5% [2]. Leading Industries Summary - Over the past decade, the leading industries in the last two months have included: - 2015: Comprehensive, Social Services, Real Estate, Electronics, Beauty Care [4] - 2016: Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Steel, Retail, Building Materials [4] - 2017: Food & Beverage, Oil & Petrochemicals, Home Appliances, Steel, Coal [4] - 2018: Electronics, Comprehensive, Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Beauty Care [4] - 2019: Building Materials, Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Media, Automotive [4] - 2020: Non-ferrous Metals, Social Services, Power Equipment, Food & Beverage, Defense [4] - 2021: Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, Communication, Environmental Protection, Building Materials [4] - 2022: Food & Beverage, Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Media [4] - 2023: Coal, Machinery, Media, Communication, Comprehensive [4] - 2024: Retail, Banking, Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, Oil & Petrochemicals [4] Investment Strategy Insights - Various institutions suggest strategies for the year-end market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on low-value sectors and potential rebounds in banking and non-bank financials. They also highlight opportunities in energy metals, chemical products, and technology sectors [8][9]. - The recommendation includes a balanced investment approach, combining dividend and technology strategies to optimize asset allocation while maintaining a long-term perspective [9].

| 区日数日 いんなエ バス | 今日 | 该指数 | 该指数目2013年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较为稳定,并具有一定规模及流动 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 以来估值分位 | | 性的股票组成,反映高股息率A股上 | | | | | 市公司股票的整体表现,银行、煤 | | | | | 炭、交通运输行业合计占比近55%, | -0. 2% | 8.7倍 | 78. 7% | | 其中银行行业占比较高 | | | | 截至收盘，中证红利低波动指数上涨0.4%，恒生港股通高股息低波动指数上涨0.02%，中证红利指数、中证红利价值指数均下跌0.2%，恒生红利低波ETF （159545）全天净申购达1500万份。 中信建投证券表示，继九月初算力板块交易过热见顶后，市场进入牛市整理期，呈现资金高切低、指数横盘、缩量轮动的特征。但总体上牛市逻辑仍在，一 方面资本市场改革进入深水区，另一方面结构性景气提供支撑，资金面充裕，下修幅度或有限。中期配置方面，风格切换已经开始，短期关注"反制+避 险"，年底建议关注红利风格。 | 见, | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of the A-share market in the last two months of each year over the past decade, highlighting that large-cap value and dividend styles tend to outperform, while small-cap and growth styles lag behind. Consumer and cyclical sectors show relatively better performance [1][7]. Market Performance Summary - In the last two months of each year, large-cap value and dividend styles have consistently outperformed small-cap and growth styles, indicating a trend in investor preference [7]. - The historical performance of major indices from 2015 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with significant gains in 2015 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index up 4.6%) and notable declines in 2023 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index down 1.5%) [2]. Leading Industries Summary - Over the past decade, the leading industries in the last two months have included: - 2015: Comprehensive, Social Services, Real Estate, Electronics, Beauty Care [4] - 2016: Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Steel, Retail, Building Materials [4] - 2017: Food & Beverage, Oil & Petrochemicals, Home Appliances, Steel, Coal [4] - 2018: Electronics, Comprehensive, Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Beauty Care [4] - 2019: Building Materials, Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Media, Automotive [4] - 2020: Non-ferrous Metals, Social Services, Power Equipment, Food & Beverage, Defense [4] - 2021: Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, Communication, Environmental Protection, Building Materials [4] - 2022: Food & Beverage, Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Media [4] - 2023: Coal, Machinery, Media, Communication, Comprehensive [4] - 2024: Retail, Banking, Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, Oil & Petrochemicals [4] Investment Strategy Insights - Various institutions suggest strategies for the year-end market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on low-value sectors and potential rebounds in banking and non-bank financials. They recommend monitoring sectors like battery, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and chemical products for investment opportunities [8][9]. - The article suggests a balanced investment approach, combining dividend and technology strategies to optimize asset allocation while avoiding frequent trading to minimize costs and risks [9].

中金公司发布研报称，由于财报披露节奏、分红事件效应、机构投资者风险偏好的季节性变化，市场存 在风格日历效应。小盘风格呈现上半年波动较大、下半年总体向好的特征；成长风格表现呈"前高后 低"特征。质量风格体现"首尾双强"规律；红利风格在4、8月表现良好，6月和10月超额胜率较低。年末 或可关注质量风格的配置机会。 中金公司主要观点如下： 报告所总结的是A股市场存在的周期性规律，未考虑趋势性、外生性影响因素，受多维度因素影响，未 来各个月份的风格收益表现有可能不完全与所总结的规律一致。 红利风格在4、8月表现良好，6月和10月超额胜率较低。统计期内(2020-01-01至2025-11-03)，4月、8月 红利指数胜率均达83.3%。但6、10月呈现较明显的回落，红利组合、中证红利胜率均较低。 风格日历效应存在的内在机制：财报披露节奏、分红事件效应、机构投资者风险偏好的季节性变化 成长与小盘风格表现受财报披露节奏影响较大。财报密集披露时，容易吸引投资者重点关注上市公司业 绩情况，驱动资金流向基本面向好的股票中(成长风格)，阶段性规避基本面相对较弱的小盘风格。 高股息预案日效应和股权登记日效应可能阶段性影响红利风格的 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, experiencing fluctuations throughout the week[1] - The average daily trading volume remained stable above 20 trillion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The consumer sector, particularly social services, agricultural products, and commercial trade, showed significant recovery in trading activity[1] - The healthcare and consumer staples sectors led the weekly gains, with excess returns of 3.78% and 3.38% respectively[26] Investment Style Trends - Small-cap stocks demonstrated sustained activity, while growth stocks generally experienced declines[5] - Institutional heavyweights across various indices saw weekly adjustments, with the fund overlap index down by 1.76%[20] Market Sentiment - The micro-cap stock index's trading heat continued to recover, indicating improved market sentiment[5] - The overall risk appetite in the market remains balanced and defensive, reflecting cautious investor behavior[1] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that historical data does not guarantee future performance, highlighting the potential for market volatility due to macroeconomic changes[34]

Group 1 - The report highlights that after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasting 43 days, market liquidity has improved, leading to a rebound in equity markets, with MSCI Emerging Markets up 0.29% and MSCI Developed Markets up 0.43% [10][11] - Commodity ETFs performed exceptionally well, with an average weekly increase of 2.95%, reflecting strong price movements in precious metals and oil [10][11] - The report notes a net inflow of 29.597 billion yuan into ETFs this week, with all types of ETFs experiencing varying degrees of inflow except for bond ETFs, which saw a slight outflow [11][12] Group 2 - The report indicates that the stock ETF indices with the highest returns are primarily in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and chemical sectors, while the technology growth sector has shown caution due to concerns over AI bubble narratives [16][18] - The report mentions that the bond ETF market is seeing a preference for interest rate bonds over credit bonds, with convertible bond ETFs showing an average weekly increase of 0.44% [20][21] - The report emphasizes that the high dividend yield of 5.5% for Hong Kong stocks, compared to a 3.69 percentage point spread over the 10-year government bond yield, makes them attractive to investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest environment [23]

港股三大指数全天表现弱势，恒生指数跌0.71%报26384点，国企指数跌0.74%报9328点，恒生科技指数 跌0.96%报5756点，市场情绪继续疲软，三者均录得2连跌行情。 | 最新价 涨跌额 涨跌幅 | 代码 | | --- | --- | | 800100 国企指数 | 9328.40 -69.56 -0.74% | | 800700 恒生科技指数 5756.88 -55.92 -0.96% | | | 800000 | | 盘面上，大型科技股表现低迷拖累大市下行，其中，上周五大跌超7%的百度再度下跌近3%，铝、铜、 黄金等有色金属板块齐跌。另一方面，电池股逆势领涨，军工股拉升明显，中船防务盘中一度涨至 9%，服装股板块下跌。 | | | | | 汽车 | 地产发展商 -0.25% | 生物技术 -2.04% | | 图层 -1.32% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 銀行 | -0.76% | 线上零售商 -0.20% | 电讯服务 -0.63% | -0.54% | 黄金及贵 | 互动媒体及 | 煤炭 | 家庭 ...

11月17日早盘，三大指数承压，煤炭、石油化工、机械等传统高股息红利板块再度走强。孚日股份涨 停，潍柴动力、中国石油、川恒股份等高股息、低估值热门股轮番上攻，"能追牛、能扛熊"的红利热门 标的——标普红利ETF（562060）开盘下挫后随即上行，韧性十足，截至午盘微跌0.16%收盘且持续溢 价，实时成交额突破3000万元。 数据来源：沪深交易所，截至2025.11.17午盘收盘 长江证券分析称，根据综合观察，成长风格在前三季度的收益弹性相对较高，但第四季度的波动性有所 加大。红利风格在全年各阶段的表现稳定性相对突出，尤其在第四季度的整体回撤控制方面展现出一定 韧性。随着政策端不断引导"长期投资"、"耐心资本"，红利股相对优势愈发明显。 值得注意的是，上证指数突破4000点后市场重回震荡，红利资产重获资金青睐。上交所数据显示，标普 红利ETF（562060）连续5日获资金净流入7369万元；时间进一步拉长至近10日，标普红利ETF （562060）连续吸金合计超1亿元。 数据来源：沪深交易所等，截至2025.11.14 公开资料显示，标普红利ETF（562060）及其联接基金（A类501029、C类005125 ...

从成份股质量来看，标普港股通低波红利指数兼顾大盘与中盘，结合大盘蓝筹与行业高股息代表。过半 成份股为央国企，兼具分红能力与分红意愿，有望受益于央企市值管理等利好动力。该指数通过限制单 一成份与行业比重，纳入更多行业的高股息代表，配置更均衡。前十大成份股主要分布在金融、房地 产、能源等高股息大盘板块。指数红利"综合"属性显著，有望在红利风格行业轮动时更及时地把握配置 窗口。 11月12日，A股三大指数震荡整理，沪指围绕4000点整数关口展开"攻防"；与此同时，港股走强，恒生 指数高开高走，收涨0.85%。港股高股息代表性ETF、被动跟踪标普港股通低波红利指数的港股通红利 ETF（159220）场内大涨1.91%，标的指数其后随港股收市收涨1.69%，相较A股主流红利指数，表现较 为突出。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅▼ | | --- | --- | | 标普港股通低波红利指数 | 1.69% | | 深证红利 | 0.33% | | 红利指数 | 0.27% | | 中证红利 | 0.07% | 从日线维度来看，自11月5日起，产品已连续第6个交易日创下收盘价新高，作为红利资产的代表"势如 破竹"、再创高峰。 | 分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market shows a shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell configuration [1][6]. - The bond market sentiment is bullish. Although there is still short - term support, the downward space for yields may be limited, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [2][7]. - For stock index options, it is advisable to continue holding covered positions for defense as the market style rotates and no capital main line has been formed yet [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated narrowly around 4,000 points on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 2 trillion yuan. The style structure was further adjusted, and the sustainability of hotspots was limited. After the release of the 25Q3 monetary policy report, long - term bond prices opened higher and rose, the bank sector soared in the morning, and the dividend index was strong. High - risk - appetite sectors retreated, and the external market's drag on the domestic market weakened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Dividend ETF + IM long positions [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Focus on covered defense [6]. - **Logic**: The equity market oscillated weakly yesterday, and the turnover of each option variety oscillated and recovered but remained at a relatively low level of liquidity since October. The option sentiment index showed a weak trend, especially for the CSI 1000 index options and technology - sector option varieties. Option trading sentiment changed with the style switch, and option volatility strengthened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered positions [6]. 3.1.3 Bond Index Futures - **View**: Bond market sentiment is bullish. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL have changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7]. - **Logic**: Bond index futures prices rose across the board yesterday. The domestic bond market was generally bullish, interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and the inter - bank market liquidity improved. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 continued the keynote of a "moderately loose monetary policy" [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate strongly. Hedging strategy: pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. Basis strategy: pay attention to the positive spread strategy and basis widening. Curve strategy: appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic indicators to be released in China from November 13 to 14, 2025, including new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply annual rate, total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and added value of industrial enterprises above designated size annual rate [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with representatives of the National Committee on United States - China Relations, emphasizing the broad cooperation space in the economic and trade fields between the two countries and the need to implement the consensus of the two heads of state [10]. - **New Energy**: The National Energy Administration issued a guiding opinion on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy, including optimizing the power structure and energy - storage configuration ratio of "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new - energy bases and exploring the construction of new water - wind - solar integrated bases [10]. - **Automobile**: The Ministry of Public Security completed the solicitation draft of the national standard "Technical Conditions for Motor Vehicle Operation Safety", which includes speed - limit requirements and safety requirements for new - energy vehicles [11]. - **Power Battery**: The 2025 World Power Battery Conference held a signing ceremony in Yibin, Sichuan, with 180 projects signed, totaling 86.13 billion yuan. After full operation, the expected annual output value will exceed 90 billion yuan, and over 50 leading enterprises will settle in Yibin [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes sub - sections on stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond index futures data, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [12][16][28].