丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 低估值、红利风格交易活跃度继续回升—— W127 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周市场成交量小幅缩量，上证周度微涨，创业板指周度涨幅接近 2%。当周成长风格继续修 复领涨，尤其是中盘成长、高波、高贝塔类，表现普遍较佳。从成交活跃度来看，基础风格中 红利、低估值当周成交活跃度继续回升，成长风格前期小幅回落后再度上行，微盘股拥挤度继 续下滑。一级行业中油气、食品饮料、保险等板块周度拥挤度分位仍位于底部；基金重仓 50 领 涨基金重仓系列指数，2025 年年初至今大幅跑赢沪深 300 指数；行业板块内信息技术与硬件 领涨。主题行情中，新型烟草、专精特新精选指数领涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 低估值、红利风格交易活跃度继续回升 2] —— W127 市场观察 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-09- ...

Group 1 - A-shares are entering a high-level fluctuation state as the fourth quarter approaches, with expectations for a potential recovery in the market trend [1][2] - Multiple brokerages have released optimistic strategies for A-shares in the fourth quarter of 2025, suggesting that the upward trend is not over and that the market may continue to challenge new platforms [1][2] - Key drivers for market growth include structural recovery in A-share earnings, significant policy expectations, and improvements in macro and micro liquidity [2][3] Group 2 - The macro environment is expected to support A-share performance, with resilient export growth and structural improvements in manufacturing investment anticipated [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to boost the RMB exchange rate, attracting global capital inflows into China, which may create more thematic opportunities in the market [3][4] - The liquidity environment in China is likely to remain loose, with increased allocation to equity assets by residents and a potential uptick in fund issuance [3][4] Group 3 - Market style is expected to become more balanced in the fourth quarter, with both growth and value styles having opportunities [4][5] - Historical data suggests that value style has a slightly higher probability of outperforming growth style in the fourth quarter since 2013 [4] - The growth style remains a core theme in the current market trend, with significant potential in sectors like AI and related technologies [5][6] Group 4 - Investment opportunities are focused on sectors such as AI, with expectations for high growth in related industries like PCB and liquid cooling [5][6] - The chemical sector is also viewed positively, with improvements in profit growth and capital expenditure levels [5][6] - Other sectors with potential include rare earths, precious metals, military, financial IT, and various consumer goods [5][6][7]

临近9月底，A股进入高位震荡状态，即将到来的四季度能否重拾涨势突破前期高位备受关注。 ● 本报记者 胡雨 三大因素合力驱动市场上行 从近一个月A股市场整体表现看，在日成交额持续保持在2万亿元以上的同时，主要股指出现明显分 化，上证指数维持高位区间震荡态势，深证成指、创业板指继续震荡冲高。展望即将到来的四季度，A 股上涨行情能否延续备受关注。 中国证券报记者梳理发现，当前多家券商均对A股2025年四季度走势持相对积极态度，认为市场有望继 续挑战新平台、行情有望更进一步但波动率或加大，A股盈利可能出现结构性回升、政策想象空间较大 和宏微观流动性改善将成为市场向上的主要驱动因素。 就宏观环境而言，华金证券策略首席分析师邓利军认为，四季度我国出口增速仍有望维持一定韧性，制 造业投资可能继续出现结构性改善，而"金九银十"和年底消费旺季来临有望推动消费在四季度出现低位 回升态势，因此A股盈利可能出现结构性回升，PPI领先指标当前仍在修复或指向盈利上升周期短期未 完、四季度继续筑顶；拉长时间尺度看，政策提升市场信心从而带动基本面修复和A股估值提升的中长 期逻辑大概率不会改变。 从政策层面看，日前美联储2025年首次降息落地 ...

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 自由现金流ETF（159201）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，自由现金流策略弥补了传统红利策略在 行业覆盖广度和未来表现预判方面的不足，聚焦于内生增长能力，强调财务健康与可持续性，更契合追 求长期成长与资本增值的投资者需求。基金管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率0.05%，均为市场最 低费率水平，最大程度让利投资者。 每日经济新闻 截至2025年9月25日13点30分，国证自由现金流指数上涨0.05%，成分股环旭电子涨停、太龙股 份、上海电气、洛阳钼业、凌云股份等涨幅居前。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF （159201）跟随指数上行，盘中成交额率先达2.4亿元。截至9月24日，自由现金流ETF近1月日均成交 3.27亿元，排名可比基金第一。 南京证券表示，成长板块存在波动，存在较强政策预期的"反内卷"和"促内需"板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a period of fluctuation as the third quarter concludes, with brokerages maintaining a relatively positive outlook for the fourth quarter, suggesting that the market trend is not yet over [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, with major indices experiencing divergence; the Shanghai Composite Index remains in a high-level fluctuation while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices continue to rise [2]. - A structural recovery in A-share earnings is anticipated, driven by policy expectations, macro and micro liquidity improvements, and a resilient export growth forecast [2]. Policy Impact - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to boost the RMB exchange rate, attracting global capital inflows into China, with a shift in market focus towards 2026 economic and policy expectations [3]. - Domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation towards equity assets by residents, contributing to market growth [3]. Market Style - The market is expected to exhibit a more balanced style in the fourth quarter, with both growth and value styles having opportunities [4]. - Historical data suggests that value styles have a slightly higher probability of outperforming growth styles in the fourth quarter since 2013 [4]. Investment Focus - The primary investment focus for the fourth quarter includes technology growth sectors, particularly AI, alongside cyclical products and sectors with improving economic conditions [5][6]. - Specific sectors identified for potential growth include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military, financial IT, and various consumer goods [6]. Sector Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, AI hardware and applications, and consumer services, with particular attention to emerging trends in pet economy, IP toys, and beauty products [6].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.29%, and ChiNext Index up 0.21% at the close [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Key Sectors Banking Sector - Bank stocks collectively rose, with Nanjing Bank increasing by over 5%, and other banks like Xiamen Bank and Agricultural Bank also seeing gains [2][3] - Morgan Stanley's report remains bullish on Chinese bank stocks, emphasizing their stable dividend yields and strong performance [3] Precious Metals - Gold stocks saw an uptick, with Xiaocheng Technology rising over 8% [4][5] - International gold prices reached a new high, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3,760 per ounce [5] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery, with stocks like Kaimeteqi and Wavelength Optoelectronics hitting the daily limit [6][7] - Longchuan Technology projected a significant profit increase of 131.39% to 145.38% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [7] Other Notable Stocks - Tianpu Co. achieved a 15-day consecutive limit-up, with a total increase of 279.73% since September 22 [1] Institutional Insights - CICC reports indicate that the current A-share market is in a short-term adjustment phase but maintains a mid-term upward trend, suggesting a more stable and long-term market condition [9][10] - Huatai Securities notes that market sentiment is a key factor influencing A-share performance, with trading funds remaining active [11] - Galaxy Securities expresses optimism for the computing-related sectors, including PCB and domestic computing, as they remain in a performance realization phase [12]

Market Performance - The weekly trading volume showed a slight recovery, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a minor decline[2] - The "Growth+" series indices from Changjiang maintained a positive performance, with the Changjiang Growth Index doubling its year-to-date increase[2] - The weekly performance of the Changjiang Dual Innovation Growth Index was notably strong[6] Style and Sector Analysis - The trading activity of the dividend style continued to recover, while the crowding degree of the growth style slightly decreased[6] - High profitability quality stocks saw a sustained increase in trading activity, while micro-cap stocks' crowding degree continued to decline[2] - The consumer discretionary sector led the weekly performance among industry sectors, followed by information technology and hardware[28] Fund Performance - The fund-heavy 50 index outperformed other fund-heavy indices, with a weekly return of 1.62%[22] - The overall fund-heavy index maintained an upward trend during the week[23] - The Northbound heavy series underperformed compared to the Changjiang All A index since the beginning of 2025[26] Thematic Trends - The Changjiang Manufacturing Champion Selected Index showed strong weekly performance, leading the thematic indices[34] - The Changjiang Low-Carbon Leader 30 Index achieved a weekly return of 4.25%[34]

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from CICC indicates that the A-share market is currently in a short-term adjustment phase, but this does not alter the medium-term trend. The current market conditions may be more aligned with "long-term" and "steady progress" characteristics [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The growth style has recently shown characteristics of diffusion and rotation, expanding from technology growth to sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, high-end manufacturing, military industry, and new energy since the beginning of the year [1] - The strong sectors are expected to continue to alternate, indicating a potential for ongoing market dynamics [1] Group 2: Earnings and Policy Focus - As the third quarter draws to a close, investor attention towards the third-quarter earnings reports is likely to increase [1] - Important policy moments should be monitored for their implications on medium to long-term reform directions, particularly in areas benefiting from support for new productive forces, green development, and expanded openness [1] Group 3: Dividend Style - The dividend style remains a phase-specific and structural performance characteristic [1]

Market Overview - The trading activity of dividend style has shown a recovery, with the micro盘 index's congestion level continuing to decline[1] - The weekly trading volume in the market has slightly decreased, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen[1] - The growth style has rebounded from last week's pullback, indicating ongoing style switching in the market[1] Sector Performance - The real estate sector has led the weekly gains, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors also performing relatively well[3] - High dividend sectors such as coal and insurance remain at low congestion levels, suggesting potential for future growth[1][3] Fund Performance - The fund-heavy indices have continued their upward trend, with the fund-heavy index gaining 2.50% this week, outperforming the benchmark[23] - The Northbound heavy series has underperformed compared to the overall market since the beginning of 2025[27] Style Tracking - The "Growth+" series has performed well, with the growth index showing a weekly gain of 4.78%[33] - The high profitability quality index has also seen a recovery, indicating a positive trend in profitability quality[1][3] Thematic Trends - The specialized and innovative series indices have shown good rebounds, with the specialized and innovative selected index gaining 6.92% this week[35] - The carbon neutrality and rural revitalization indices have also performed positively, with gains of 2.08% and 1.03% respectively[35]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced increased volatility with a slight decline in trading volume during the week[2] - Growth style saw a pullback, but a strong rebound was noted on the last trading day, particularly in the ChiNext Index[2] Trading Activity - Dividend style trading activity showed signs of recovery, while high profitability quality continued to rise[3] - The congestion level in high dividend sectors like coal and insurance remains at the bottom, indicating potential for growth[2] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector led the weekly performance, with healthcare leaders significantly outperforming dividend stocks in the same sector[3] - The value stable and value prosperity composite strategies outperformed during the week[3] Fund Performance - The Fund Heavyweight 50 Index recorded a weekly return of 2.35%, continuing its upward trend[22] - The overall performance of the Fund Heavyweight Index was volatile, but it led the institutional series in returns[22] Theme Trends - The low-carbon leader indices (30/60) showed strong weekly performance, with returns of 8.58% and 8.26% respectively[34] - The carbon neutrality index also performed well, with a weekly return of 5.53%[34]