螺纹钢周度数据（20251205） 期货研究报告 螺纹钢供需两端持续走弱，建筑钢厂生产偏弱，螺纹钢周产量环 比降16.77万吨，降幅超远期，供应降至低位，但钢厂盈利状况在 好转，减产持续性存疑，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同 样走弱，周度表需环比降10.96万吨，高频每日成交表现弱稳，两 者均位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未见改善，淡季螺纹需求将 持续走弱。目前来看，螺纹钢供应降至低位，给与价格支撑，但需 求同样在走弱，供需双弱局面螺纹基本面并无实质性改善，上行驱 动存疑，相对利好则是估值偏低，预计走势延续震荡运行态势，关 注钢厂生产情况。 春 节 春 节 当 春 节 春 节 春 节 春 节 春 节 钢联建材成交周度均值（农历） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 189.31 -16.77 206.08 -16.77 233.94 -44.63 高炉产能利用率（%） 87.08 -0.90 87.98 -0.90 88.58 -1.50 表观需求量 216.98 -10.96 227.94 -10.96 230.8 ...

公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 206.08 -1.88 212.59 -6.51 227.88 -21.80 高炉产能利用率（%） 87.98 -0.60 88.61 -0.63 87.80 0.18 表观需求量 227.94 -2.85 232.18 -4.24 225.35 2.59 钢联建材成交周均值 10.46 0.42 10.43 0.03 11.38 -0.92 总库存 531.48 -21.86 602.52 -71.04 447.64 83.84 厂内库存 146.73 -6.59 171.71 -24.98 145.25 1.48 社会库存 384.75 -15.27 430.81 -46.06 302.39 82.36 螺纹钢周度数据（20251128） 螺纹钢供需两端有所走弱，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹钢周产量 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 207.96 7.96 212.59 -4.63 233.82 -25.86 高炉产能利用率（%） 88.58 -0.22 88.61 -0.03 88.53 0.05 表观需求量 230.79 14.42 232.18 -1.39 234.20 -3.41 钢联建材成交周均值 10.17 0.16 10.43 -0.26 11.61 -1.44 总库存 553.34 -22.83 602.52 -49.18 445.11 108.23 厂内库存 153.32 -7.10 171.71 -18.39 148.72 4.60 社会库存 400.02 -15.73 430.81 -30.79 296.39 103.63 螺纹钢周度数据（20251121） 螺纹钢供需两端均迎来回升，建筑钢厂有所复产，螺纹钢周产 量环比增7.96万吨，供应再度回升并至年内相对高位，加之库存 水平偏高，供应压力有所增加，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所走弱，螺纹产量环比下降，但持续性存疑，且库存水平偏高，供应收缩 利好效应有限。与此同时，螺纹需求表现不佳，高频指标位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业未见好 转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而拖累钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供应收缩至低位，但需求表现偏弱， ...

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 | | | 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 212.59 5.52 207.02 5.57 243.22 -30.63 高炉产能利用率（%） 88.61 -1.33 90.65 -2.04 88.40 0.21 表观需求量 232.18 6.17 241.07 -8.89 240.68 -8.50 钢联建材成交周均值 10.79 0.73 10.11 0.68 11.67 -0.88 总库存 602.52 -19.59 602.25 0.27 437.27 165.25 厂内库存 171.71 -12.92 158.91 12.80 154.70 17.01 社会库存 430.81 -6.67 443.34 -12.53 282.57 148.24 螺纹钢周度数据（20251031） 螺纹钢供需两端持续回升，建筑钢厂生产积极，螺纹钢周产量 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 221.18 10.12 211.06 10.12 168.54 52.64 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.09 -0.15 90.24 -0.15 87.02 3.07 表观需求量 210.79 7.38 203.41 7.38 190.76 20.03 钢联建材成交周均值 10.58 1.17 9.41 1.17 10.44 0.14 总库存 556.68 10.39 546.29 10.39 720.15 -163.47 厂内库存 168.20 6.05 162.15 6.05 185.02 -16.82 社会库存 388.48 4.34 384.14 4.34 535.13 -146.65 螺纹钢周度数据（20250808） 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，建筑钢厂复产积极，螺纹钢周产 量环比增10.12万吨，低位回升并至年内高位，且品种吨钢利润较 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 202 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 211.96 2.90 217.84 -5.88 216.69 -4.73 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.81 -0.08 90.83 -0.02 89.61 1.20 表观需求量 216.58 10.41 219.91 -3.33 227.02 -10.44 钢联建材成交周均值 11.41 2.04 9.87 1.54 10.33 1.08 总库存 538.64 -4.62 549.00 -10.36 760.24 -221.60 厂内库存 165.67 -7.43 185.60 -19.93 193.65 -27.98 社会库存 372.97 2.81 363.40 9.57 566.59 -193.62 螺纹钢周度数据（20250725） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The supply and demand of rebar have both increased, with the fundamental situation continuing its seasonal weakness. During the off - season, rebar prices are likely to face pressure. However, the low inventory level and recent policy benefits support the short - term strong operation of rebar prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 15.67 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.21 percentage points. Supply has continued to rise to a high for the year, and production enthusiasm remains high due to good profit per ton [1][2]. Demand - The apparent weekly demand for rebar was 224.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.96 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.91 tons. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 10.95, a week - on - week increase of 1.08 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.22. Demand has recovered at a low level, mainly due to speculative demand stimulated by rising steel prices, and it remains at a low level in recent years. The off - season weakness persists [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 545.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.79 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 241.38 tons. The in - plant inventory was 180.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.13 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.31 tons. The social inventory was 364.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 221.07 tons. The low inventory level is a relative positive factor [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of rebar remain weak, with supply contraction leading to inventory reduction, but demand is also weak, and the fundamentals have not improved. Steel prices continue to face pressure, and it is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate at a low level during the off - season. Pay attention to the production changes of construction steel mills [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar decreased by 108,900 tons compared with the previous week, and the supply continued to contract and reached the lowest level of the year. However, due to the good profit per ton of the variety, the sustainability of production reduction is questionable [1][2] Demand - The weekly apparent demand of rebar decreased by 124,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the high - frequency daily transactions were lower than the normal level. Both were at the lowest level in recent years. The weak demand pattern remained unchanged, which was likely to suppress steel prices [2] Inventory - Supply contraction led to inventory reduction. The total inventory decreased by 124,000 tons compared with the previous week, the in - plant inventory decreased by 19,700 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 104,300 tons. The relatively positive factor was the low inventory level, and the real - end contradiction was not significant [1][2]

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 218.46 -7.05 225.51 -7.05 233.07 -14.61 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.65 -0.04 90.69 -0.04 88.14 2.51 表观需求量 229.03 -19.65 248.68 -19.65 231.14 -2.11 钢联建材成交周均值 10.67 0.50 10.17 0.50 12.17 -1.50 总库存 570.48 -10.57 581.05 -10.57 775.60 -205.12 厂内库存 184.86 -1.60 186.46 -1.60 204.85 -19.99 社会库存 385.62 -8.97 394.59 -8.97 570.75 -185.13 螺纹钢周度数据（20250606） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 ...