投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面弱势运行，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势格局未变，周产量高位小幅回落，但旺季生产积极性未退，供应压力未缓 解。与此同时，螺纹钢需求弱势运行，高频指标回落且继续位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未 好转，旺季需求改善空间存疑。总之，螺纹供需两端均有所走弱，基本面并未好转，库存持续增 加，钢价承压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory growth and accumulated industrial contradictions. Steel prices continue to be under pressure. Against the backdrop of the cost increase and the expectation of peak - season demand, rebar is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Rebar weekly production increased by 59100 tons week - on - week to a high for the year, due to the resumption of production of construction steel mills and the return of production transfer. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 percentage points [1] Demand - Rebar weekly apparent demand increased by 94100 tons week - on - week, but the high - frequency daily transactions remained sluggish. Both were at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space of demand was questionable [1][2] Inventory - Rebar total inventory was 6.2339 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163500 tons; factory inventory was 1.6962 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49100 tons; social inventory was 4.5377 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 212600 tons [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实矛盾累积，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 姓名：涂伟华 交易所提示风险，市场情绪降温，钢价再度走弱，相应的螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂复 产积极，螺纹钢供应回升，且品种吨钢利润较好，生产积极性尚存，压力有所增加。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求迎来改善，高频指标环比回升，但下游行业并无好转，需求改善空间受限。总之，供需双 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 限产扰动显现，黑色品种强弱有所切换，而螺纹钢基本面淡季弱稳运行，建筑钢厂有所提产， 周产量持续增加，供应压力在回升。相反，螺纹需求表现不佳，高频需求指标延续偏弱运行态势， 淡季需求特征明显，仍将抑制钢价。总之，供应扰动再现，钢价震荡回升，但螺纹钢供应压力在增 加，而需求表现不佳，基本面处于季节性弱势，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位，现实矛盾 不大，预计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注限产执行情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面淡季弱势，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening in the off - season, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is seasonally weakening, and steel prices are under pressure. However, inventories are being depleted at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is the weakening of fundamentals in the off - season and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken seasonally. Steel mills mainly ensure the supply of plates, and rebar production has been continuously decreasing, with supply contracting to a relatively low level. Rebar demand remains weak, with weekly apparent demand continuing to decline and high - frequency transactions operating at a low level, showing off - season characteristics. The supply - demand pattern is seasonally weakening, and steel prices are under pressure, but inventory depletion at a low level means less real - world contradiction. The short - term trend is low - level volatility, and demand changes should be monitored [3].