2026 年 02 月 27 日 宏观策略图表分析百宝箱：实战应用指南 宏观策略分析常面临指标繁杂、逻辑难以验证、复盘效率低下的困 境。为此，我们金融工程团队历时三年，自主打造了"宏观策略图表 百宝箱"系统，旨在为投研人员提供一套集数据清洗、逻辑检验、情 景复盘与策略跟踪于一体的高效图表分析工具。 本报告主要通过 13 个贴近实战的图表分析案例，系统展示该系统 如何应对三类核心问题：如何检验一个宏观逻辑是否可靠？如何从历 史行情中挖掘有效规律？如何构建动态有效的策略跟踪体系？ 报告中详细讨论的 13 个实战分析案例如下： 每个案例不仅简要展示了对应图表模板的搭建过程，更结合分析结 果对背后的逻辑框架进行深度反思，提炼出若干重要洞察。例如：经 典逻辑（如美债收益率与大小盘风格）需要实证检验而非盲目相信； 历史规律（如春节效应、大跌反弹）需结合市场阶段与微观结构方能 有效应用。 在信息过载的时代，真正的优势不在于拥有更多信息，而在于更系 统的处理框架和更深刻的思考路径。工具的高级价值在于拓展认知边 界，本系统希望助力投研人员穿透数据表象，直达问题本质，成为投 研路上的得力助手。 附录：系统核心功能简介 本系统具备 ...

- The **cyclical analysis model** suggests that despite previous market adjustments and a short-term upward channel breakdown, the monthly upward trend since early 2024 may still persist. This conclusion is supported by comparing the current market structure with the 2017 December trend using **Chan theory** and the **thermometer indicator** for similarity analysis[6] - The **trend strength factor** indicates that since the end of November, the oversold rebound has significantly improved the multi-moving average alignment, leading to a notable recovery in upward trend strength. This supports the view of a moderately positive market outlook[6] - The **industry divergence indicator** has dropped to historically low levels in recent years. Historical data shows that during bull markets or upward trends, low levels of industry divergence often correspond to local lows or even significant bottoms, which is a key basis for maintaining a positive outlook for December[6] - The **four-wheel drive model** signals are relatively dispersed, with notable performances in large-cap value, small-cap growth, technology, and high-dividend sectors. Specific signals on Thursday and Friday highlighted opportunities in non-bank financials, China New Materials, and defense sectors[6][15]

- The report discusses the market's high volatility phase, likened to the "tail" of a fish, indicating a potential peak in the TMT sector's performance due to high trading concentration and lack of clear drivers for other sectors [1][7] - Industry divergence, measured by rolling quarterly return standard deviation, has been expanding and is expected to reach its peak since September 2024 if the current "strong-get-stronger" trend persists [1][7] - The TMT sector's trading volume share is at its third-highest level historically, and when combined with the advanced manufacturing sector, it approaches the historical peak, suggesting a crowded trade scenario [1][7] - The stock-bond yield gap has been running below the -2 standard deviation of the Bollinger Band for nearly three years, implying limited upside potential for the market without new upward drivers [2][8]