四轮驱动模型
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向上趋势或有改善迹象
Guotou Securities· 2025-12-07 06:03
- The **cyclical analysis model** suggests that despite previous market adjustments and a short-term upward channel breakdown, the monthly upward trend since early 2024 may still persist. This conclusion is supported by comparing the current market structure with the 2017 December trend using **Chan theory** and the **thermometer indicator** for similarity analysis[6] - The **trend strength factor** indicates that since the end of November, the oversold rebound has significantly improved the multi-moving average alignment, leading to a notable recovery in upward trend strength. This supports the view of a moderately positive market outlook[6] - The **industry divergence indicator** has dropped to historically low levels in recent years. Historical data shows that during bull markets or upward trends, low levels of industry divergence often correspond to local lows or even significant bottoms, which is a key basis for maintaining a positive outlook for December[6] - The **four-wheel drive model** signals are relatively dispersed, with notable performances in large-cap value, small-cap growth, technology, and high-dividend sectors. Specific signals on Thursday and Friday highlighted opportunities in non-bank financials, China New Materials, and defense sectors[6][15]
本期震荡偏积极:定量视角下的收官之战
Guotou Securities· 2025-11-30 06:05
- The report discusses a **cycle analysis model**, which observes the market's monthly upward trend since early 2024, despite recent adjustments and a temporary break below the rising channel. This model suggests that the overall risk remains controllable, even if there is a future pullback, as the high-frequency temperature gauge of major broad-based indices remains below 20, indicating a relatively low level [1][9] - The **industry divergence indicator** is highlighted, showing that the divergence among primary industries has dropped to a historically low level. Historically, this indicator tends to rise again when the market restarts, potentially signaling the emergence of a sustainable market theme. The report notes that the TMT sector, which previously adjusted, is showing signs of renewed capital attention [2][9] - The **Four-Drive Model** provides insights into specific sectors. It identifies potential rebounds in the small-cap growth sector, coal sector, semiconductor materials and equipment sector, and sci-tech materials sector. These sectors are noted for signals such as low-cycle absorption, volume contraction during adjustments, and signs of stabilization or rebound after significant corrections [3][6][11]
国投证券稳字当先
Guotou Securities· 2025-11-02 02:34
- The "All-weather Timing Model" indicates that the market is currently at the symmetrical end of the fifth wave, with the KDJ indicator at a high level and showing a bearish divergence signal. This model suggests a defensive stance for the Shanghai Composite Index in the near future[6] - The "Four-wheel Drive Model" highlights opportunities in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, gold stocks, and textiles. It also suggests focusing on recently oversold sectors and defensive sectors like banking and non-banking financials[6] - The KDJ indicator is used as a key signal in the "All-weather Timing Model," where its high position and bearish divergence indicate potential market corrections[6]
本期节奏上不妨先攻后守
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-26 04:01
- The "Four-Wheel Drive" model was constructed to analyze market opportunities, particularly focusing on growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing. The model suggests that these sectors are gradually presenting layout opportunities after stabilizing from previous adjustments[7] - The model's construction process involves tracking transaction congestion levels, sector rotation signals, and cyclical analysis. It integrates multiple indicators to identify potential growth opportunities in specific sectors[7] - Evaluation of the model indicates its effectiveness in identifying short-term structural opportunities, especially in sectors with significant prior adjustments and subsequent stabilization[7] - The model's backtesting results are not explicitly provided in the report[7]
继续高位震荡
Guotou Securities· 2025-06-29 05:16
- The report mentions the "Four-Engine Model" as a quantitative model used to identify potential opportunities in various industry sectors[6][13] - The "Four-Engine Model" suggests focusing on sectors such as computers, automobiles, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, media, electronics, and telecommunications based on recent market signals and Sharpe ratio rankings[6][13] - The model evaluates sectors based on metrics like recent signal dates, potential profit-effect anomalies, and Sharpe ratio rankings over the past year[13]
本期震荡偏强,科技板块仍具性价比
Guotou Securities· 2025-06-08 08:35
- The "Four-Wheel Drive Model" issued multiple bullish signals for the TMT sector, indicating potential opportunities based on low-frequency thermometer metrics and crowding levels. The TMT sector remains at a relatively low position compared to the market, with slight upward movement after hitting a two-year low at the end of May[6][13] - Specific industries highlighted by the "Four-Wheel Drive Model" include electronics, computers, media, non-bank financials, food and beverages, textiles and apparel, communications, machinery, and military industries, all showing potential opportunities based on recent signals and market dynamics[6][13] - The "Four-Wheel Drive Model" uses metrics such as Sharpe ratio rankings and signal dates to identify potential opportunities in various industries, with recent signals indicating upward trends or crowding effects in sectors like electronics and media[13]
金融工程定期报告:本期或仅是整理,蓄势以待机
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-18 07:33
- The "All-weather model" issued a technical risk signal, indicating potential market consolidation in the near term[1][7] - The "Cycle analysis model" monitors trends at different levels, suggesting the current adjustment is limited to the post-May 1st rally, with no evidence of the broader uptrend since early April ending[1][7] - The "Four-wheel drive industry rotation model" recommends focusing on sectors such as military, home appliances, agriculture, automotive, electronics, computers, and non-bank financials during the consolidation phase[7][16]