Group 1: Liquidity and Capital Flow - The supply side of equity public offerings remains at a historically high level, with new fund issuance at 110 billion yuan, maintaining an 81% percentile over the past three years[6] - Margin financing net inflow decreased to -247.2 billion yuan, placing it in the 7% percentile over the past three years[11] - Southbound capital net inflow increased to 223.2 billion yuan, reaching the 72% percentile historically[38] Group 2: Trading Activity and Market Sentiment - Trading heat in the light industry sector rose by 13 percentage points to 38%, while the construction materials sector fell by 16 percentage points to 53%[44] - The search interest for A-shares on social media reached a new high for the year, driven by a 3.6% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index on March 23[2] - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 1200.5 billion yuan, down 610.2 billion yuan from the previous value, representing the 67.8% percentile over the past five years[2] Group 3: Stock Buybacks and Financing - The total amount of stock buybacks last week was 20.9 billion yuan, up from 9.8 billion yuan, placing it in the 59% percentile historically[23] - Equity financing amounted to 121.3 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 45.8 billion yuan and refinancing 75.5 billion yuan, at the 58% percentile historically[26] Group 4: Investor Behavior - The number of individual investors participating in margin trading reached 8.071 million, with daily active participants decreasing by 45,000 from the previous value[14] - The overall margin trading turnover rate last week was 36.2%, down from 38.7%, placing it in the 68% percentile historically[14]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in investor sentiment indices for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with an increase in VIX for major indices, indicating a short-term market downturn and presenting opportunities for a rebound in oversold conditions [2][10] - Recent institutional focus has shifted towards sectors such as coal, electric power and utilities, banking, media, and comprehensive finance, suggesting a potential for recovery in these areas [2][25] - The report maintains a bullish outlook on agricultural, automotive, electronics, and media sectors for relative returns in March 2026, while also identifying opportunities in gold and silver due to recent price declines and increased volatility [2][42] A-share and Hong Kong Stock Sentiment Tracking - The A-share sentiment index has shown a high-level decline, with VIX for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rising, indicating a low sentiment environment and potential for oversold rebounds [2][10] - The Hong Kong sentiment index has also decreased, reflecting similar trends in market sentiment [2][15] Institutional Research and Crowding Indicators - Recent institutional attention has increased in the coal, electric power and utilities, banking, media, and comprehensive finance sectors, indicating a shift in investment focus [2][25][23] - The report identifies that several industries, including oil and petrochemicals, coal, electric power and utilities, basic chemicals, construction, electric equipment and new energy, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery are at the threshold of triggering crowding indicators [2][31] A-share Style and Sector Allocation - The current allocation strategy favors sectors such as agriculture, automotive, electronics, and media based on multi-dimensional analysis of industry and style indices [2][36] Commodity Insights - The report notes an increase in VIX for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil, with a specific focus on the potential for rebounds in gold and silver due to recent price declines [2][38] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive amid expectations of economic downturns and rising inflation [2][42]

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance scale of equity public funds has returned to a historical high, with new fund issuance reaching 198.2 billion units, up from 31.2 billion units previously, marking a 95% percentile in the last three years[9] - Margin financing net inflow was approximately 48.8 billion, a significant increase from the previous outflow of 253.1 billion, placing it at the 57% percentile over the last three years[13] - Southbound capital net inflow surged to 465 billion, returning to a historical high, while equity financing decreased to 38.1 billion, at the 22% percentile[25][36] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat index for the chemical industry increased by 23 percentage points to 63%, while the construction sector rose by 19 percentage points to 79%[42] - The media sector saw a decline of 30 percentage points to 55%, and the real estate sector decreased by 16 percentage points to 28%[42] - The overall trading volume for stock ETFs turned negative at -74 billion, down from a previous inflow of 45.6 billion, placing it at the 23% percentile[20] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow in A-shares was 1430.3 billion, a decrease of 694.2 billion from the previous week, placing it at the 80% percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for A-shares on social media platforms has declined, indicating a decrease in market enthusiasm amid external geopolitical and liquidity disturbances[66] - The trend of public funds clustering has intensified, with a focus on value and sectors like consumption and cyclical industries[2]

Liquidity - The net inflow of leveraged funds has significantly rebounded to a historical high of approximately 785 billion CNY, compared to a net outflow of 737 billion CNY in the previous period, placing it in the 96th percentile over the past three years[6] - The issuance of equity public funds has decreased to a historical low of 15 billion CNY, down from 259 billion CNY in the previous period, representing only 21% of the three-year percentile[6] - The net inflow of southbound funds has decreased to 59 billion CNY, down from 246 billion CNY, placing it in the 25th percentile over the past three years[35] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the light industry has increased by 22 percentage points to 41%, while the coal industry has risen by 15 percentage points to 34%, and the building materials sector has increased by 14 percentage points to 76%[4] - Conversely, the medical services sector has decreased by 19 percentage points to 43%, the semiconductor industry has dropped by 17 percentage points to 20%, and the home appliance sector has fallen by 14 percentage points to 29%[4] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors have seen a net inflow of 800.9 billion CNY in the past week, a decrease of 376.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 32.5th percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for A-shares on social media has increased, indicating a rise in market trading sentiment[2] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with no significant style bias observed, shifting towards the new energy sector[2]

Core Insights - The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold while suggesting short-term attention on oil and copper [2] - A-shares sentiment index is rising, while Hong Kong stocks sentiment index is declining, leading to a bullish position on A-shares and a neutral stance on Hong Kong stocks [2] - Current institutional focus is on basic chemicals and the automotive industry, with a decrease in attention towards non-bank financial sectors [2] A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks Sentiment Tracking - The A-shares sentiment index has increased, and the VIX for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 has decreased, indicating a bullish timing strategy for A-shares [2][5] - The Hong Kong stocks sentiment index has decreased, leading to a neutral timing strategy for the Hang Seng Index [2][14] Institutional Research and Crowding Indicators - Current institutional focus is on the electric power and public utilities and automotive sectors, while attention towards retail and non-bank financial sectors has decreased [26] - Recent increases in institutional attention have been noted in coal, electric power and public utilities, banking, non-bank financials, and media sectors [27] - Several industries, including oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, and building materials, are at the threshold of crowding indicators [36][37] A-shares Style and Sector Allocation - The current allocation based on the A-shares industry and style rotation index favors media, electronics, automotive, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors [42] Commodities - The VIX for gold and silver has decreased from high levels, while copper and oil are experiencing high volatility [44] - The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold due to declining U.S. real interest rates, increased market volatility, rising geopolitical risks, and growing demand for gold [50]

Group 1: Liquidity - The net outflow of leveraged funds reached a new high since April 1998, amounting to -737 billion CNY, placing it in the 1st percentile over the past three years[12] - The issuance of equity public funds rebounded to a historical high of 259 billion CNY, representing the 97th percentile[6] - The net outflow of stock ETFs increased to -488 billion CNY, which is in the 3rd percentile over the past three years[20] Group 2: Market Demand - Equity financing amounted to 206 billion CNY, placing it in the 83rd percentile over the past three years[26] - The net reduction in industrial capital reached -100.8 billion CNY, which is in the 83rd percentile over the past three years[29] - The net inflow of southbound funds decreased to 246 billion CNY, which is in the 77th percentile over the past three years[38] Group 3: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the building materials sector increased by 19 percentage points to 68%, indicating strong market interest[55] - The trading heat for the liquor sector rose by 10 percentage points to 26%[50] - The trading heat for the medical services sector decreased by 18 percentage points to 58%[46] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 117.1 billion CNY, down by 447.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 65.4th percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for A-shares on social media declined, reflecting a drop in trading sentiment ahead of the holiday[2]

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance of equity public funds has decreased to 8.42 billion units, down from 32.79 billion units, but remains at a historically high level[8] - The net outflow of margin financing has increased to 52.1 billion CNY, marking a 2% percentile over the past three years[13] - The net inflow of southbound funds has surged to 49.83 billion CNY, reaching a historical high and representing a 96% percentile[40] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 17 percentage points to 49%[46] - The trading heat for the liquor sector has risen by 10 percentage points to 15%[53] - The trading heat for the communication sector has also increased by 10 percentage points to 47%[66] - The trading heat for the home appliance sector has decreased by 12 percentage points to 47%[53] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 162.44 billion CNY, a decrease of 54.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 87.4% percentile over the past five years[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.5% on February 2, leading to an increase in self-media search interest in A-shares[73]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing significant volatility, challenging the perception of gold as a low-volatility asset, with a recent spike in implied volatility reaching over 44%, surpassing Bitcoin levels, marking the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [3] - The recent rebound in gold prices above $4900 per ounce is attributed to a weakening dollar index, which fell below 97.50, providing a short-term recovery opportunity for gold after a sharp decline [1] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is seen as a critical variable affecting market expectations, with his cautious stance on inflation potentially stabilizing the dollar and impacting gold's appeal as a reserve asset [2] Group 2 - Despite short-term volatility, several Wall Street institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold, with JPMorgan forecasting prices could reach $6300 within the year and further increase to $6600 by 2027, supported by central bank and investment demand [4] - The easing of geopolitical tensions and improved trade relations, such as the recent U.S.-India trade agreement, are contributing to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a price rebound that is more about price correction than a return to safe-haven buying [2] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility and structural divergence, with ongoing influences from Federal Reserve personnel changes, risk appetite recovery, and deleveraging effects, making the upward price trajectory uncertain [4]

Liquidity - The issuance of equity mutual funds reached 327.9 billion units, with actively managed funds at 231.2 billion units, marking a new high since 2022[6] - Margin financing net outflow was approximately -71 billion, placing it in the 23rd percentile over the past three years[13] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of -3168.2 billion, which is in the 1st percentile over the past three years[22] Market Trends - The total net outflow of broad-based ETFs exceeded 1 trillion, with significant outflows from the CSI 300 (-581.8 billion), CSI 1000 (-130.3 billion), and Shanghai Composite (-984 billion)[22] - The stock market showed high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 2% on January 30, leading to increased search interest in A-shares on social media[67] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 216.8 billion in A-shares, an increase of 969.7 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 95.6th percentile over the past five years[2] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, shifting towards growth and consumer sectors[2] Sector Performance - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector increased by 25 percentage points to 79%, while the consumer electronics sector decreased by 9 percentage points to 59%[45] - The demand for equity financing expanded to 159 billion, ranking in the 69th percentile over the past three years, while the net reduction in industrial capital decreased to -81.8 billion, ranking in the 74th percentile[27][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - issue scale of active equity funds reached a new high since 2022. - The capital supply and demand sides both contracted. - The trading congestion showed different trends in various industries. - The self - media A - share search popularity and retail investor capital inflows decreased. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Capital Liquidity: The New - issue Scale of Active Equity Funds Reached a New High Since 2022 1.1 Public Offering Equity New - issue Scale Increased - The newly - established share of public offering equity funds last week was 261.5 billion, a significant increase from the previous value of 97.4 billion. Among them, the newly - issued active funds were 217.1 billion, reaching a new high since 2022, and the newly - issued passive index funds were 44.3 billion. [8] 1.2 Margin Trading Funds: Net Outflow - The latest margin financing balance of 2.71 trillion decreased from the previous value, while the securities lending balance of 1.733 billion increased. The overall balance accounted for 2.61% of the floating - market value, at the 99th percentile in the past three years. - Margin trading funds had a net inflow of about - 8.11 billion last week, a sharp drop from the previous net inflow of 105.22 billion, at the 19th percentile in the past three years. The turnover accounted for 9.8% of the total A - share turnover, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous value. - The margin trading turnover ratio last week was 50.2%, down from 71.0% in the previous period, at the 88th percentile in the past three years. - The number of individual investors in margin trading business reached 7.933 million, with the average daily trading investors decreasing by 111,000 from the previous value. - Margin trading mainly had a net inflow of 5.07 billion in the non - ferrous metals industry, 2.14 billion in the non - banking financial industry, and 1.43 billion in the banking industry; and a net outflow of 4.06 billion in the electronics industry, 3.68 billion in the computer industry, and 2.63 billion in the media industry. [12][13][19] 1.3 Stock - type ETFs: Net Inflow of - 333.05 Billion, at the 0th Percentile in the Past Three Years - The overall net inflow of stock - type ETFs last week was - 333.05 billion, a significant drop from the previous net inflow of - 141.58 billion. The net flow was at the 0th percentile in the past three years, with large - cap ETFs having a net inflow of - 396.19 billion and thematic ETFs having a net inflow of 4.965 billion. [20] 1.4 Listed Company Repurchases: Repurchase Amount Decreased - The repurchase amount of listed companies last week was 260 million, down from 850 million in the previous period, at the 3rd percentile in the past three years. [22] 1.5 Equity Financing: Amount at the 41st Percentile in the Past Three Years - Based on the listing date, the equity financing amount last week was 715 million, at the 41st percentile in the past three years, including 47 million in IPOs and 669 million in refinancing. [25] 1.6 Industrial Capital Net Reduction Scale Decreased - Last week, industrial capital had an overall increase of 29.1 million and a reduction of - 1.213 billion, with a net reduction of - 1.184 billion, a decrease in scale compared to the previous value of - 1.863 billion. The net reduction scale was at the 90th percentile in the past three years. - By industry, there was a net increase of 0.01 billion in the banking industry last week; and net reductions of - 5.04 billion in the electronics industry, - 1.08 billion in the pharmaceutical industry, and - 0.94 billion in the computer industry. [28][33] 1.7 Restricted - share Unlocking Scale Increased - The market value of unlocked shares last week was 5.842 billion, an increase from the previous value of 5.141 billion, at the 56th percentile in the past three years. The expected market value of unlocked shares this week is 4.051 billion. [35] 1.8 Southbound Capital Net Inflow Increased - The southbound capital flow last week was + 2.101 billion, an increase from + 899 million in the previous week. The weekly net flow intensity was at the 72nd percentile in the past three years. [38] 1.9 Northbound Capital Participation Increased - The trading of northbound capital accounted for 6.9% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - shares last week, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. The participation was at the 50th percentile in the past three years. [41] 2. Trading Congestion: Construction, Home Appliances, and Semiconductors Rose; Light Industry, Building Materials, and Communications Declined 2.1 Growth - themed Industries - The trading popularity percentile of the semiconductor industry increased by 7 percentage points to 23%. [46] 2.2 Value - themed Industries - The home appliance industry rose to 68%, and the insurance industry rose by 5 percentage points to 49%. [52] 2.3 Cycle - themed Industries - The construction industry rose by 10 percentage points to 49%, and the light industry decreased by 30 percentage points to 45%. [57][61] 2.4 TMT - themed Industries - The media industry rose by 6 percentage points to 75%, and the electronics industry rose by 5 percentage points to 29%. [67] 3. Investor Thermometer: Self - media A - share Search Popularity and Retail Investor Capital Inflows Decreased 3.1 Self - media: A - share Search Popularity Decreased - The market continued its structural differentiation last week. Under regulatory cooling, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated slightly upward, and the decline in market trading activity led to a decrease in the self - media A - share search popularity. [71] 3.2 Douyin Users Watching "A - share" Content - The structure distribution of Douyin users watching "A - share" content from January 17th to January 23rd was generally stable. The proportion of high - level cities such as new first - tier and second - tier cities decreased; and the proportion of the young group under 30 years old decreased. [74] 3.3 Kuaishou: "A - share" Video Playback Volume Decreased - From January 17th to January 23rd, the number of "A - share" videos on Kuaishou decreased by 116 compared to the previous period; the playback volume decreased by 2.674 million times; and the interaction volume decreased by 52,000 times. [78] 3.4 Weibo Sentiment: The Outflow of Broad - based ETFs Caused a Rise in Negative Sentiment on Weibo - The overall sentiment on Weibo was stable last week, but the large - scale outflow of broad - based ETFs led to a significant increase in negative sentiment. [80] 3.5 Public Offering Fund Clustering Trend - From January 19th to January 23rd, the public offering fund clustering trend strengthened, with a preference for the growth style and the electronics industry. [83] 3.6 Retail Investor Capital Inflow Decreased - In October 2024, the number of newly - opened accounts was 6.85 million, second only to April 2015 and June 2015 in history; in December 2025, it was 2.6 million, at the 75th percentile in the past decade. - From January 19th to January 23rd, the net inflow of retail investor capital in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - shares measured by small orders was 119.87 billion, a decrease of 129.43 billion from the previous value, at the 67.8th percentile in the past five years. [89] 3.7 Retail Investor Entry Channels: Download Volume Decreased - From January 17th to January 23rd, the cumulative download volume of Flush was 239,000 times, a decrease of 141,000 times from the previous value; the download volume of Eastmoney was 105,000 times, a decrease of 24,000 times from the previous value. The number of five - star reviews of Flush was 5,340 times, a decrease of 4,501 times from the previous value. [91]