证 券 研 究 报 告 自媒体A股搜索热度重回高位 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年11月25日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 偏股型公募新发份额 私募备案规模 北向成交占比 两融资金净流入 股票型ETF净申购 产业资本净减持 自媒体A搜索热度 新开户数量 本周 上期 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 3 数据来源：Wind，华创证券 注：公募、两融、外资、ETF、产业资本、自媒体热度为周频数据(截至2025/11/23)、私募(截至2025/9)与新开户 ...

Group 1: Liquidity and Fundraising - The issuance of actively managed equity public funds reached a new high since January 2023, with new issuance at 199 billion yuan, compared to 223 billion yuan previously, maintaining a 96% historical percentile[10] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of nearly 640 billion yuan over the past six months, with a weekly net inflow of 354.7 billion yuan, placing it at the 93% historical percentile[42] - The total amount of equity financing last week was 103 billion yuan, which is at the 53% historical percentile, including 35.9 billion yuan from IPOs and 67.1 billion yuan from refinancing[30] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 4000 points, while the search interest in A-shares on social media platforms has declined overall[74] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market was 110.96 billion yuan, down 33.81 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it at the 59.2% historical percentile[12] - The trading heat for the media sector increased by 17 percentage points to 26%, while the electronic sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 43%[67] Group 3: Margin Trading and Capital Flow - The net inflow of margin trading funds significantly decreased to approximately 59.9 billion yuan, down from 290.9 billion yuan previously, placing it at the 57% historical percentile[16] - The total margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with a proportion of 2.54% of the market capitalization, at the 96% historical percentile[16] - The net inflow in the electric new energy sector was 107.5 billion yuan, while the non-bank financial sector saw a net outflow of 21.3 billion yuan[24]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model Based on Profit Growth Rate **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses profit growth rate as the primary criterion for industry selection, supplemented by valuation and trading crowding metrics as risk indicators[7][27][29] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Profit Growth Metrics**: - Single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate - Marginal change in single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate Formula for marginal change: $ \text{Marginal Change} = \text{2025 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} - \text{2024 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} $[15][29] 2. **Valuation Metric**: - Historical PE_TTM percentile (2020 to present) is used to measure valuation levels across industries[18][21][29] 3. **Trading Crowding Metric**: - Standard deviation of turnover rate over the past three months is calculated to assess trading crowding[6][24][29] 4. **Comprehensive Scoring**: - Each metric is ranked, and weights are assigned: - Profit growth metrics: 0.3 each - Risk metrics (valuation and trading crowding): 0.2 each Formula for comprehensive scoring: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = 0.3 \times \text{Net Profit YoY Growth} + 0.3 \times \text{Marginal Change} + 0.2 \times \text{Valuation Percentile} + 0.2 \times \text{Turnover Rate Std Dev} $[31][32] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industries with high profit growth and moderate risk levels, providing actionable allocation recommendations[7][27][32] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Allocation Model**: - Portfolio return: 2.38% - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 0.63% - Excess return: 1.75%[7][32] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Profit Growth Rate **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures industry profitability through single-quarter net profit growth and marginal changes in growth rates[7][29] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate 2. Marginal change in single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate Formula: $ \text{Marginal Change} = \text{2025 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} - \text{2024 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} $[15][29] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures industries with strong profitability and growth momentum[7][29] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Percentile **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses historical PE_TTM percentiles to compare valuation levels across industries[18][21] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PE_TTM for each industry 2. Determine historical percentile (2020 to present) for PE_TTM values[18][21] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a standardized comparison of valuation levels across industries, mitigating biases from absolute PE differences[21][29] - **Factor Name**: Turnover Rate Standard Deviation **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures trading crowding by assessing the volatility of turnover rates over the past three months[6][24] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate daily turnover rates for each industry over the past three months 2. Compute standard deviation of turnover rates[6][24] **Factor Evaluation**: Identifies industries with extreme trading behaviors, serving as a risk indicator[6][24] Factor Backtesting Results - **Profit Growth Rate Factor**: - Steel: 203.31% YoY growth, 380.75% marginal change[10][15] - Electronics: 57.42% YoY growth, 59.99% marginal change[10][15] - Media: 58.63% YoY growth, 82.75% marginal change[10][15] - Defense: 29.52% YoY growth, 83.60% marginal change[10][15] - Utilities: 17.77% YoY growth, 19.81% marginal change[10][15] - **Valuation Percentile Factor**: - Steel: 99.72%[21][29] - Electronics: 98.94%[21][29] - Media: 90.40%[21][29] - Defense: 97.10%[21][29] - Utilities: 55.31%[21][29] - **Turnover Rate Standard Deviation Factor**: - Steel: 50.48%[6][29] - Electronics: 96.51%[6][29] - Media: 84.50%[6][29] - Defense: 82.79%[6][29] - Utilities: 25.21%[6][29]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The issuance of equity mutual funds reached a new high since March this year, with new shares totaling 22.35 billion units, up from 6.04 billion units previously, marking a significant increase[12] - Net inflow of leveraged funds slightly increased, with a total margin balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, placing it in the 99th percentile over the past three years[16] - Southbound capital saw a cumulative net inflow of over 600 billion yuan in the past five months, with a weekly net inflow of 25.18 billion yuan, ranking in the 82nd percentile historically[44] Group 2: Trading Activity and Investor Sentiment - The trading heat for coal increased by 28 percentage points to 49%, while central enterprises rose by 27 percentage points to 59%, and banks by 25 percentage points to 66%[2] - The overall market saw a net inflow of retail investor funds amounting to 144.78 billion yuan, an increase of 76.52 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it in the 81.1 percentile over the past five years[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4,000 points on October 28, leading to an increase in A-share search interest on social media[2] Group 3: Fund Demand and Corporate Actions - Equity financing amounted to 18.47 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 9.17 billion yuan and refinancing 9.30 billion yuan, ranking in the 72nd percentile historically[30] - The net reduction in industrial capital was 72.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous 93.2 billion yuan, indicating a decline in net selling activity[33] - The total amount of repurchases by listed companies decreased to 940 million yuan from 1.31 billion yuan, placing it in the 22nd percentile historically[27]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The supply side of funds continues to shrink, with public fund issuance maintaining historical median levels, while leveraged funds have seen a net inflow returning to high levels[3] - Equity financing has expanded to a historical high, reaching a new peak since July this year, with southbound funds accumulating a net inflow of over 570 billion CNY in the past five months[3][10] - The net inflow of margin financing reached approximately 267.3 billion CNY, marking a significant turnaround from a previous outflow of 140 billion CNY, placing it in the 83rd percentile over the past three years[17] Group 2: Trading Congestion and Market Sentiment - The trading heat for insurance, central enterprises, and banks has increased, with insurance rising by 32 percentage points to 48%, central enterprises by 26 percentage points to 49%, and banks by 25 percentage points to 56%[3][57] - Conversely, the trading heat for electronics, home appliances, and media has decreased, with electronics down 23 percentage points to 53%, home appliances down 17 percentage points to 59%, and media down 14 percentage points to 13%[3][70] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market was 682.6 billion CNY, a decrease of 1,225.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 23.1 percentile over the past five years[3] Group 3: ETF and Repurchase Trends - Stock-type ETFs experienced a net outflow of 299.2 billion CNY, a significant drop from a previous net inflow of 260.8 billion CNY, placing the sentiment at a low point in the past three years[24] - The amount of repurchase by listed companies decreased to 13.1 billion CNY from 16.0 billion CNY, which is in the 36th percentile over the past three years[27] Group 4: Sector Performance - The net inflow in the electronics sector was 148.6 billion CNY, while the automotive sector saw a net outflow of 13.5 billion CNY[23] - The net inflow in the communication sector was 46.2 billion CNY, with a net outflow in the pharmaceutical sector of 3.0 billion CNY[23]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced significant declines, with gold dropping over 6% and silver falling by more than 8% in a single day, attributed to profit-taking by investors after a recent surge in prices [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Gold prices fell to $4112.37 per ounce, down 5.58%, after reaching a high of $4342 earlier in the day, marking a decline of over $240 in just seven hours [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a drop of 4.92%, trading at $4145 per ounce [1]. - Silver prices reported a decline to $48.18 per ounce, down 8.02%, with COMEX silver futures dropping 7.69% to $47.44 per ounce [3][4]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop is primarily due to profit-taking by investors following a period of strong performance driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong safe-haven demand [6][8]. - The rapid increase in precious metal prices, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, was seen as overbought, leading to a correction as geopolitical tensions eased and trade attitudes softened [8][9]. - The volatility in gold trading has reached high levels, indicating potential risks of overtrading, with historical comparisons suggesting similar patterns in the past [8]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, with some analysts indicating a greater likelihood of declines unless high-net-worth investors continue to increase their gold holdings [9]. - HSBC's commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum could persist until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., with a target price of $5000 per ounce [10].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Zhihui emphasizes a rational approach to investment amidst market volatility, focusing on macroeconomic cycles and industry allocation to achieve steady returns [2][3] Investment Philosophy - Liu's investment framework consists of three core elements: understanding macro cycles, assessing odds, and respecting market signals [3] - The investment philosophy includes "Investment Way," "Investment Method," and "Investment Technique," focusing on market trends, macro and industry analysis, and specific trading strategies [4] Multi-Asset Framework - Liu's investment strategy spans fixed income, equities, and convertible bonds, aiming for absolute returns through flexible allocation and odds thinking [5] - In bond investment, Liu adjusts duration and leverage based on macro analysis, credit environment, and market sentiment [6] Stock and Convertible Bond Strategy - Liu captures industry trends and cyclical turning points through sector rotation and concentrated allocation, focusing on both intrinsic value and market pricing signals [6] - For convertible bonds, Liu only allocates when they exhibit characteristics of downside protection and upside potential, guided by macroeconomic fundamentals [6] Recent Market Actions - In response to market adjustments, Liu increased exposure to sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI, while also considering undervalued sectors such as machinery and real estate [7] - Liu maintains a neutral stance on the bond market, focusing on short-duration government bonds and high-rated credit bonds due to low yield levels [7]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flows - Leverage funds, stock ETFs, and buybacks have all expanded to historical highs, with net inflows of leverage funds reaching 468 billion CNY, placing it in the 95th percentile over the past three years[11] - Stock ETFs saw a net subscription of 379 billion CNY, also in the 90th percentile historically[11] - The total buyback amount reached 54 billion CNY, up from 27 billion CNY, ranking in the 88th percentile[25] Group 2: Demand and Financing Trends - Equity financing dropped significantly to 2 billion CNY, which is only in the 3rd percentile historically[11] - Industrial capital net reduction was 19 billion CNY, down from 52 billion CNY, placing it in the 37th percentile[30] - Southbound capital saw a cumulative net inflow of nearly 520 billion CNY over the past five months, with a weekly net inflow of 24.3 billion CNY, ranking in the 17th percentile[40] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.3% on the first trading day after the holiday, returning to 3900 points, which boosted A-share search interest on social media[2] - Retail investor net inflow reached 822.1 billion CNY, an increase of 435.2 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 34.9th percentile over the past five years[2] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with a shift towards value stocks, particularly in the electronics and consumer sectors[2]

- The report discusses the market's high volatility phase, likened to the "tail" of a fish, indicating a potential peak in the TMT sector's performance due to high trading concentration and lack of clear drivers for other sectors [1][7] - Industry divergence, measured by rolling quarterly return standard deviation, has been expanding and is expected to reach its peak since September 2024 if the current "strong-get-stronger" trend persists [1][7] - The TMT sector's trading volume share is at its third-highest level historically, and when combined with the advanced manufacturing sector, it approaches the historical peak, suggesting a crowded trade scenario [1][7] - The stock-bond yield gap has been running below the -2 standard deviation of the Bollinger Band for nearly three years, implying limited upside potential for the market without new upward drivers [2][8]

Group 1 - The current technology bull market has been ongoing for a period, with leading stocks continuously reaching new highs, raising questions about its sustainability and potential for further growth [1] - Historical references from previous technology bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) provide valuable insights into the current market dynamics [1] Group 2 - In previous bull markets, the maximum gains for the ChiNext Index were 589.73% and 201.81%, while the CSI Technology 100 Index saw maximum gains of 457.03% and 156.04%. As of September 18, 2024, the current maximum gains for these indices are 113.67% and 110.35% respectively, indicating potential for further increases [2] - In the "Internet Bull" market, 31 industry indices saw maximum gains exceeding 100%, with the computer index soaring nearly 8 times. In the "Track Bull" market, 19 industry indices also exceeded 100%, with the power equipment industry index increasing over 3 times. Currently, only 6 industries have doubled, with the communication index rising over 180% [2] Group 3 - The duration of the current bull market has been approximately 1.5 years since the low point in 2024, while previous bull markets lasted around 3 years [3] Group 4 - Trading congestion is at historical highs, with the TMT sector's cumulative trading volume reaching nearly 95 trillion yuan since 2025, a nearly 20% increase from 2024 [4] - The TMT sector's trading volume accounted for over 46% of A-shares at one point this year, surpassing previous bull market peaks [4] - The weighted turnover rate for the TMT sector reached nearly 5.8%, exceeding previous bull market highs, indicating a high concentration of trading activity [4] Group 5 - Despite high trading volumes, much of it is driven by quantitative high-frequency trading, and the margin financing balance has exceeded the peak in 2015, but its market value ratio is still 50% lower than that year [5] - The sentiment indicator for A-share retail investors shows that while sentiment has increased, it has not reached the exuberant levels seen in mid-2015 or late 2020 [5] Group 6 - The TMT sector's high valuations are a concern, with the computer industry index's rolling P/E ratio exceeding 93 times, electronics over 70 times, media over 49 times, and communications over 47 times as of September 19, 2025 [6] - However, these P/E ratios are not at historical highs, with the computer, electronics, and communications sectors around the 50th percentile historically [7] Group 7 - The TMT sector's total market capitalization has surpassed 23 trillion yuan, accounting for over 22% of the total A-share market, marking a historical high [7] - The number of TMT stocks with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan has reached 34, the highest on record [7] Group 8 - The disparity between the performance of the real economy and financial markets is a global phenomenon, with the correlation between macroeconomic indicators and capital markets in China and the U.S. at a five-year low [8] - The current technology bull market is characterized by high-quality fundamentals and performance-driven characteristics, particularly in the AI computing industry, with companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang experiencing explosive growth in revenue and net profit [8] Group 9 - Institutional allocation in the TMT sector remains below historical peak levels, with public funds holding over 1.6 trillion yuan in TMT stocks, indicating potential for further investment [9] - The average holding ratio of public funds in the TMT sector is currently 5.73%, about 70% of the peak level during the last technology bull market, suggesting room for increased allocations [9]