1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong oscillation, strategic allocation value is high [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously bullish in the short - term, bearish in the long - term [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Global order reshaping and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing remain unchanged, and gold is in a long - term bull market. Multiple factors support gold, and the long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9200, and a bullish approach should be taken [3][4] - Macro - sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, the tightness of global copper mines is difficult to ease, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper [5][6] - The zinc supply is abundant, which limits the upside space. It is recommended to hold existing zinc long positions cautiously in the short - term and wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [7][8] - The cost price of aluminum has increased, and the aluminum price has rebounded again. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum and pay attention to the changes in aluminum ingot inventory [9][10] - There is an expectation of improvement in the downstream of nickel, and the nickel price has rebounded again. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to inventory changes [11][12] - There are continuous disturbances on the supply side of lithium carbonate, and it is operating at a high level. It is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term [13][14] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US Treasury Secretary Yellen made dovish remarks, the US - EU trade negotiation was not going smoothly, the US - Japan trade negotiation deadline was approaching, and the Japanese political situation was uncertain. US bond yields fell for 4 consecutive days, silver rose significantly, and gold oscillated strongly [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Dovish remarks from the US Treasury Secretary, tense US - EU trade negotiations, potential inflation pressure in Japan and political uncertainty, and large tariff uncertainties. The long - term bullish trend of gold remains due to global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9200, and a bullish approach should be taken [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper rebounded strongly and tested the 80,000 pressure level [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The tight pattern of copper concentrates persists. The production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. Domestic social inventory has decreased counter - seasonally and is at a historical low. Downstream开工率 has increased, and the demand from power and automotive industries has maintained resilience [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, the tightness of global copper mines is difficult to ease, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78500, 80500], and for LME copper is [9700, 9900] USD/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated and closed with a doji, with a stalemate between bulls and bears [7] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. New domestic smelting capacity has been released intensively. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has continued to rise, and smelters' enthusiasm for production has increased. However, it is the high - temperature and consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold existing zinc long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. Wait for a pull - back to enter the market. In the long - term, the supply of zinc will increase while the demand will decrease, and wait patiently for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22500, 23500], and for LME zinc is [2680, 2880] USD/ton [8] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price rebounded again, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [9] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the market sentiment in China is positive, the full - cost of the industry has increased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of alumina spot is relatively tight in the short - term, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum and pay attention to the changes in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range is [20200 - 21000]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [10] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounded again, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [11] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is uncertainty in the overseas environment, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may continue to weaken. The improvement of the domestic nickel supply - demand situation is limited, and the inventory has accumulated again. For stainless steel, the production reduction intensity has weakened, and the inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123700] [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased its positions slightly and reached a new high in nearly a month [13] - **Industrial Logic**: In the spot market, lithium salt factories are more willing to sell scattered orders, and futures - cash merchants are actively buying. The basis has weakened. The fundamentals have not improved significantly in the short - term, and the total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. There are continuous disturbances on the supply side, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand contradiction in advance [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with a range of [70000 - 72000] [14]