锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,212.00 | +184.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,110.00 | +270.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 655,401.00 | +24634.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 432,358.00 | +14863.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -116,519.00 | -3151.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -41,557.00 | +7244.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 74.00 | 0.00 | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 106.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 77,604.00 | -52.00↓ SF | 仓单（日，张） | 22,096. ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the research on silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures, released on July 28, 2025, by the Research Institute of Guotai Junan Futures [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures are showing a strong trend due to information disturbances related to energy consumption, carbon emissions, and industry competition [2] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - Silicon ferroalloy 2509 closed at 6166, up 412 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 566,065 and an open interest of 212,806; Silicon ferroalloy 2510 closed at 6156, up 406, with a trading volume of 63,215 and an open interest of 44,001 - Manganese ferroalloy 2509 closed at 6414, up 466, with a trading volume of 877,130 and an open interest of 387,032; Manganese ferroalloy 2510 closed at 6398, up 450, with a trading volume of 47,681 and an open interest of 24,472 [2] Spot Market - The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton; The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree; The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The spot - futures price spread of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 666 yuan/ton, down 412 yuan/ton; The spot - futures price spread of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 714 yuan/ton, down 446 yuan/ton - The near - far month price spread of silicon ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; The near - far month price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 was - 64 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton - The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 was 248 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton; The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2601 - silicon ferroalloy 2601 was 192 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On July 25, the price range of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (+50); The price range of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton (+50), in Ningxia was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), in Qinghai was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), in Gansu was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), and in Inner Mongolia was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1090 - 1110 dollars/ton - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton - As of July 25, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 354.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.93 million tons; at Qinzhou Port was 81.58 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; at Fangchenggang Port was 6.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory was 442.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73 million tons [3] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 1, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic demand remains sluggish, indicating a bottoming phase, with most industries showing flat total volume but structural highlights [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The global risk appetite has rebounded following the tariff shocks in April, leading to a "structural bull" market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - High dividend assets, safe-haven assets, and structurally growing assets are currently the market consensus [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The government is paying close attention to the negative economic impacts of internal competition, suggesting that some industries may gradually learn from the electrolytic aluminum sector to escape vicious internal competition [1] - This shift could present future investment opportunities [1]