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硅铁:市场交易情绪波动,盘面偏弱震荡,锰硅:矿端需求预期收紧,盘面偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report focuses on the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon markets, indicating that the demand expectation at the ore end is tightening, and the market is in a weak and volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of FeSi2605 and FeSi2607 are 5874 and 6014 respectively, with changes of - 192 and - 176 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 166,212 and 112,877, and the open interests are 158,901 and 129,988 [2]. - For manganese - silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2605 and MnSi2607 are 6444 and 6488 respectively, with a change of - 144 for both compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 359,939 and 108,775, and the open interests are 353,594 and 162,450 [2]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 47.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of blue carbon small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spread Data**: - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 244 yuan/ton, up 162 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread of manganese - silicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 114 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan/ton [2]. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2605 - 2607 is - 140 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, and that of manganese - silicon 2605 - 2607 is - 44 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The cross - variety spread of manganese - silicon 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 570 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton, and that of manganese - silicon 2607 - ferrosilicon 2607 is 474 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On March 31, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and that of 75 ferrosilicon is 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon are 1150 - 1170 (+10) and 1180 - 1200 (+10) US dollars/ton respectively [2]. - The northern quotation of silicon - manganese 6517 is 6300 - 6350 (+100) yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 6350 - 6450 (+50) yuan/ton [2]. - **Production and Capacity**: - In March, the production of various grades of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 20.83 tons (+1.53 tons), and in Inner Mongolia, it was about 45.05 tons (+2.12 tons) [4]. - As of March 31, 7 factories in the northern main production areas have announced production cuts, involving 14 furnace reductions. Other factories plan to cut production in April [4]. - Since April 1, many companies have carried out production cuts, such as Jitie reducing 2 silicon - manganese electric furnaces, Guangxi Ferroalloy Co., Ltd. reducing production of 6 * 12500KVA high - manganese furnaces, etc. [4]. - **Procurement and Tendering**: - Shanghai Manganese Union Technology Co., Ltd. issued a procurement announcement for South African high - iron manganese ore on March 31, with different purchase prices for different manganese content [4]. - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6580 yuan/ton for procurement of 2000 tons at the end of March, and the mid - month price was 6095/6100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is - 1, and that of manganese - silicon is - 1 [4].
硅铁:成本预期小幅抬升,多头情绪高涨,锰硅,能源信息扰动,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 02:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The manganese - silicon market experiences wide - amplitude fluctuations due to energy information disturbances [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon - iron 2605, silicon - iron 2607, manganese - silicon 2605, and manganese - silicon 2607 are 6066, 6190, 6588, and 6632 respectively. Their trading volumes are 136,071, 73,455, 310,986, and 115,142 respectively, and their open interests are 171,561, 138,591, 366,873, and 153,258 respectively [2] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon - iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5660 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 47.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon - iron (spot - 05 futures) is - 406 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference of manganese - silicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 288 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; the near - far month price difference of silicon - iron 2605 - 2607 is - 124 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the near - far month price difference of manganese - silicon 2605 - 2607 is - 44 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price difference of manganese - silicon 2605 - silicon - iron 2605 is 522 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price difference of manganese - silicon 2607 - silicon - iron 2607 is 442 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On March 30, the price range of 72 silicon - iron in different regions is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, with some regions having price changes; the price range of 75 silicon - iron is 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton, with some regions having price increases. The FOB price of 72 silicon - iron is 1150 - 1170 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the FOB price of 75 silicon - iron is 1180 - 1200 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The northern quote of 6517 silicon - manganese is 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the southern quote is 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton [2] - **Manganese Ore Inventory Information**: As of March 27, the inventory of Tianjin Port is 371.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.71 million tons; the inventory of Qinzhou Port is 125.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.86 million tons; the inventory of Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory of Fangcheng Port is 4.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory is 501.27 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.45 million tons [4] - **Enterprise Production Information**: A silicon - iron plant in Shenmu, Shaanxi is overhauling 1 40500kva silicon - iron furnace, and the overhaul duration is uncertain. Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. has powered on 1 33000kva silicon - iron furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong has resumed production of 2 33000kva silicon - iron furnaces and produced iron [4] - **Regional Production Statistics**: In March, there are 13 silicon - iron enterprises in production in Qinghai, with 41 ore - heating furnaces in production. The March start - up rate is 41%, the same as in February, and the expected output is 5.17 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons compared with February, with a capacity release of 36.54%. In March, there are 15 silicon - iron enterprises in production in Shaanxi, with 25 ore - heating furnaces in production. The March start - up rate is 41.67%, a decrease of 11.66% compared with February, and the expected output is 6.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.61 million tons compared with February, with a capacity release of 41.12% [4] - **Manganese Ore Pricing Information**: United Mining (CML) announced the price offer to China in May 2026. The price of Australian lumps with Mn>46%, Fe < 4%, and SiO2 < 18% is 6 dollars/ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 dollars/ton - degree [4] - **Steel Mill Procurement Information**: A steel mill in East China set the standard for silicon - manganese at 6670 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 1000 tons. A large steel group in Hebei issued a new round of silicon - manganese procurement tender in March, with a procurement volume of 5100 tons and a first - round inquiry price of 6300 yuan/ton. A steel mill in Shandong set the new standard for silicon - manganese at 6470 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 500 tons. The Rizhao company of a steel mill in Shandong finalized the silicon - iron procurement price at 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of up to 380 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, with a volume of 300 tons [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon - iron is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese - silicon is 0 [4]
硅铁:板块情绪扰动,现货表现平淡;锰硅:能源信息扰动,多头情绪高涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 05:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals and market news of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Energy information disturbances have led to high bullish sentiment in the silicomanganese market [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures contracts**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2605 and 2607 are 6012 and 6146 respectively, with changes of 30 and 22 compared to the previous trading day. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2605 and 2607 are 6580 and 6620 respectively, with changes of 146 and 148 [1]. - **Spot prices**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6230 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 47.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price differences**: The spot - 05 futures price difference of ferrosilicon is - 382 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 350 yuan/ton, down 146 yuan/ton. The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2605 - 2607 is - 134 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2605 - 2607 is - 40 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 568 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2607 - ferrosilicon 2607 is 474 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product prices**: On March 27, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton, and that of 75 is 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1150 - 1170 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 is 1170 - 1190 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton (+100), and the southern quotation is 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Manganese ore inventory**: As of March 27, the inventory in Tianjin Port is 371.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.71 million tons; the inventory in Qinzhou Port is 125.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.86 million tons; the inventory in Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory in Fangcheng Port is 4.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory is 501.27 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.45 million tons [3]. - **Price quotation**: United Mining (CML) announced the quotation for China in May 2026. The Australian block with Mn>46%, Fe<4%, and SiO2<18% is quoted at 6 dollars/ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 dollars/ton - degree [3]. - **Enterprise production**: Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. powered on one 33000kva ferrosilicon furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong resumed production of two 33000kva ferrosilicon furnaces and produced iron [3]. - **Steel mill procurement**: A large steel group in Hebei issued a new round of silicomanganese procurement tender in March, with a procurement volume of 5100 tons and a first - round inquiry price of 6300 yuan/ton. A steel mill in Shandong set the latest bid for silicomanganese at 6470 yuan/ton cash - inclusive to the factory, with a procurement volume of 500 tons. The Rizhao company of a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon procurement price at 6080 yuan/ton cash, a 380 - yuan/ton increase from the previous round, with a volume of 300 tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 1 [3]
硅铁:多空市场博弈,宽幅震荡,锰硅:多空市场博弈,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The manganese silicon market is in a long - short market game with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SiFe2605 is 5982, down 106 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 181,701 and an open interest of 171,684; SiFe2607 has a closing price of 6124, down 84, trading volume of 105,111 and open interest of 132,640. For manganese silicon, MnSi2605 has a closing price of 6434, down 58, trading volume of 374,063 and open interest of 380,552; MnSi2607 has a closing price of 6472, down 56, trading volume of 75,022 and open interest of 124,885 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton, up 20; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6230 yuan/ton, up 80; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 48 yuan/ton degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton, up 70 [1] - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of silicon iron (spot - 05 futures) is - 332 yuan/ton, up 126; for manganese silicon, it is - 204 yuan/ton, up 138. The near - far month spread of silicon iron (SiFe2605 - 2607) is - 142 yuan/ton, down 22; for manganese silicon (MnSi2605 - 2607) it is - 38 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety spread of MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 is 452 yuan/ton, up 48; MnSi2607 - SiFe2607 is 348 yuan/ton, up 28 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On March 26, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5600 - 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5750, in Qinghai 5600 - 5700, in Gansu 5600 - 5700, in Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5750 (+25); 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 6100, in Ningxia 6000 - 6050, in Qinghai 5900 - 6000, in Gansu 5950 - 6000, in Inner Mongolia 6000 - 6050. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1150 - 1170(+10), 75 is 1170 - 1190(+10) (USD/ton, tax - included). The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the north is 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton, in the south is 6200 - 6400 yuan/ton [1] - **Quotation Information**: United Mining (CML) announced the May 2026 quotation to China, with Mn>46% Fe<4% SiO2<18% Australian block at 6 USD/ton degree, up 0.4 USD/ton degree from last month [3] - **Production Information**: Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. powered on one 33000kva silicon iron furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong restarted two 33000kva silicon iron furnaces and produced iron [3] - **Procurement Information**: A large steel group in Hebei released a new round of silicon manganese procurement tender in March, with a procurement volume of 5100 tons. Rizhao Company of a steel mill in Shandong finalized the silicon iron procurement price at 6080 yuan/ton in cash, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a volume of 300 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0 [3]
硅铁:板块情绪扰动,宽幅震荡;锰硅:锰矿市场坚挺,日内波动加剧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 02:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The manganese ore market is firm, and intraday fluctuations have intensified. There are various developments in the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese markets, including price changes, production adjustments, and procurement information [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of SiFe2605 and SiFe2607 are 6088 and 6208 respectively, with changes of -12 and -6 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 203,058 and 106,404, and the open interests are 174,788 and 125,229 [1]. - For ferromanganese, the closing prices of MnSi2605 and MnSi2607 are 6492 and 6528 respectively, with changes of 12 and 10 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 439,738 and 90,595, and the open interests are 392,420 and 120,608 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5630 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 48 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 695 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spot - 05 futures price spread for ferrosilicon is -458 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous day. For ferromanganese, it is -378 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The near - far month price spread for ferrosilicon (SiFe2605 - 2607) is -120 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day. For ferromanganese (MnSi2605 - 2607), it is -36 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The cross - variety price spread for MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 is 404 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous day. For MnSi2607 - SiFe2607, it is 320 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Changes**: On March 25, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Ningxia, etc. increased. The price of 75 ferrosilicon in some regions also increased. The price of 6517 ferromanganese in the north and south both increased [1]. - **Production Adjustment**: Industry news indicates that manganese alloy plants will enter the production - cut and price - maintenance stage. The production cut will start on April 1, but currently, the plants have not effectively reduced production, and the March output is still at a relatively high level [3]. - **Production Resumption**: Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. has powered on one 33000kva ferrosilicon furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong has resumed production of two 33000kva ferrosilicon furnaces and produced iron [3]. - **Procurement Information**: A Fujian group's ferromanganese procurement prices and quantities in different regions are provided. Jinshenglan's ferrosilicon pricing in different regions on March 24 is also given [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and the trend intensity of ferromanganese is 0 [3].
硅铁:板块情绪扰动,宽幅震荡;锰硅:市场信息扰动,日内波动加剧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 03:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon iron experiences wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment disturbances, and ferromanganese shows intensified intraday fluctuations because of market information disruptions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Data** - Silicon iron 2605 has a closing price of 6100 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 284,622 and an open interest of 178,033. Silicon iron 2607 has a closing price of 6214 yuan, down 18 yuan, a trading volume of 131,981, and an open interest of 121,815 [1]. - Ferromanganese 2605 has a closing price of 6480 yuan, down 76 yuan, a trading volume of 897,615, and an open interest of 406,591. Ferromanganese 2607 has a closing price of 6518 yuan, down 76 yuan, a trading volume of 145,110, and an open interest of 115,584 [1]. - **Spot Data** - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 48.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 1.5 yuan. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 695 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data** - The spot - futures price difference of silicon iron (spot - 05 futures) is - 420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The spot - futures price difference of ferromanganese (spot - 05 futures) is - 318 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan [1]. - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2605 - 2607 is - 114 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The near - far month price difference of ferromanganese 2605 - 2607 is - 38 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The cross - variety price difference of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 is 380 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan. The cross - variety price difference of ferromanganese 2607 - silicon iron 2607 is 304 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information** - On March 24, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan), 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton in Ningxia (up 100 yuan), 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton in Qinghai (up 150 yuan), 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton in Gansu (up 100 yuan), and 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (up 100 yuan). The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1140 - 1160 dollars/ton (up 20 dollars). The price range and increase of 75 silicon iron are also given [1][3]. - The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese is 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), and the southern quotation is 6150 - 6250 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan) [1][3]. - **Production News** - Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. has powered on one 33000kva silicon iron furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong has restarted two 33000kva silicon iron furnaces and produced iron [3]. - **Procurement News** - A Fujian group's silicon - manganese procurement prices are 6480 yuan/ton in Hubei (procurement volume 2600 tons), 6510 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (1500 tons), 6510 yuan/ton in Anhui (1000 tons), 6610 yuan/ton in Heyuan, Guangdong (1500 tons), and 6530 yuan/ton in Yunfu, Guangdong (3200 tons). Jinshenglan's silicon - iron procurement prices on March 24 are 6160 yuan/ton in Hubei, 6300 yuan/ton in Yunfu, and 6330 yuan/ton in Heyuan [3]. - **Production - Cut News** - Industry news suggests that manganese alloy plants will enter a production - cut and price - maintenance phase, and the production cut will start on April 1st according to the feedback from some silicon - manganese plants [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of ferromanganese is also 0 [3].
硅铁:板块情绪共振,偏强震荡;锰硅:多头情绪高涨,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 02:50
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report states that the silicon iron sector shows a resonance of sentiment and is in a relatively strong oscillating state, while the manganese silicon has high bullish sentiment and is also in a relatively strong oscillating state [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron 2605 has a closing price of 5932, up 108 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 409,548 and an open interest of 180,829. - Silicon iron 2607 has a closing price of 6046, up 110, with a trading volume of 153,646 and an open interest of 112,976. - Manganese silicon 2605 has a closing price of 6400, up 212, with a trading volume of 1,391,749 and an open interest of 428,681. - Manganese silicon 2607 has a closing price of 6430, up 208, with a trading volume of 225,627 and an open interest of 122,459 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The spot price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The spot price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6100 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 46 yuan/ton - degree, up 1 yuan/ton - degree. - The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 695 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: - The basis of silicon iron (spot - 05 futures) is - 332 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. - The basis of manganese silicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 330 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. - The near - far month spread of silicon iron 2605 - 2607 is - 114 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. - The near - far month spread of manganese silicon 2605 - 2607 is - 30 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. - The cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2605 - silicon iron 2605 is 468 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton. - The cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2607 - silicon iron 2607 is 384 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On March 20, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), in Qinghai is 5450 - 5550 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 6050 - 6100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1140 - 1160 dollars/ton (up 20 dollars/ton), and that of 75 is 1160 - 1180 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese is 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton [1]. - Hebei Steel finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in March at 5950 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from February, with a quantity of 1155 tons, down 995 tons from February. A representative steel mill in Hebei raised the inquiry price for silicon - manganese tender by 50 yuan/ton to 6150 yuan/ton. A steel mill in Fujian finalized the purchase price of silicon - manganese at 6060 yuan/ton (half - acceptance, half - cash), with a quantity of 9600 tons. Kunming Steel finalized the purchase price of silicon iron at 6090 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 200 tons. A steel mill in Guangdong finalized the purchase price of silicon iron at 6148 yuan/ton (cash), up 159 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 400 tons. Jinshenglan set the price of silicon iron on March 17: 5940 yuan/ton in Hubei (100 tons), 6120 yuan/ton in Yunfu, Guangdong (600 tons), and 6150 yuan/ton in Heyuan, Guangdong (300 tons). A large steel mill in Jiangsu finalized the purchase price of silicon - manganese at 6180 yuan/ton (cash), with a quantity of 3000 tons. Jiangsu Shagang finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5970 yuan/ton (cash), with a quantity of 600 tons. A steel mill in Zhejiang finalized the purchase price of silicon - manganese at 6096 yuan/ton (acceptance), with a quantity of 1000 tons. Sanming Iron and Steel in Fujian finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 6128 yuan/ton (half - cash), up 248 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 1000 tons. Qujing Chengsteel in Yunnan finalized the purchase price of 72 silicon iron at 5980 yuan/ton (cash), with a quantity of 400 tons [3]. - **Production News**: Gansu Xinyutong restarted 2 33000kva silicon iron furnaces and has produced iron [3]. - **Weather and Supply News**: Australia's northwest is facing Typhoon "Narelle", which has been upgraded to a super - typhoon of level 17. It is expected to land in Queensland this Friday with a maximum wind speed of 250km/h. The local mining and shipping activities are likely to be suspended this weekend. The specific impact on manganese ore production and shipping delay time need to be evaluated after the typhoon passes this weekend [3]. - **Import Data**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore was 574.91 million tons, an increase of 181.92 million tons (46.29%) compared with the same period in 2025. The top ten import source countries (regions) are South Africa (295.34 million tons), Australia (101.48 million tons), Gabon (70.70 million tons), Ghana (53.61 million tons), Brazil (22.12 million tons), Cote d'Ivoire (12.62 million tons), Myanmar (9.34 million tons), Malaysia (3.41 million tons), Cambodia (1.17 million tons), and Turkey (1.14 million tons) [3]. - **Inventory Data**: As of March 20, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port was 338.64 million tons, a decrease of 1.90 million tons from the previous period; in Qinzhou Port was 132.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons; in Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; in Fangchenggang Port was 5.0 million tons, an increase of 1.20 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory was 475.82 million tons, a decrease of 0.71 million tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 1 [3].
PVC周报2026/03/17:最强的V仔-20260318
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral with a slight bullish bias [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The core view on PVC is neutral with a slight bullish bias. Domestically, PVC production has slightly declined, and overseas chlor - alkali plants have faced force majeure. Recent export quotes have increased, trading has improved, and the industrial chain inventory has decreased. Due to geopolitical conflicts, there is a shortage of ethylene, which may affect the operation of ethylene - based PVC plants at home and abroad, thereby improving supply and increasing exports. Attention should be paid to domestic and foreign supply, export transaction prices, and trading volumes [3] - The month - spread is neutral with a slight bullish bias as the near - term supply - demand pattern has improved, and the 5 - 9 spread has changed its structure [3] - The raw material support is neutral with a slight bullish bias. Calcium carbide production has declined, with the price in Wuhai at 2550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan from last week. The price of medium - sized semi - coke is 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Ethylene has risen by 230 US dollars to 1201 US dollars/ton from last week [3] - The supply is neutral. The overall PVC powder production rate is 78.49%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the production rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder is 81.89%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points, and the production rate of ethylene - based PVC powder is 71.00%, a decrease of 6.24 percentage points [3][15] - The profit is neutral with a slight bearish bias. The single - PVC profit has recovered, and the comprehensive profit has improved. The profit per ton of calcium carbide integration is 330 yuan, the profit per ton of Shandong's calcium carbide - purchasing method is 14 yuan, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 369 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit in the Northwest is 919 yuan/ton, the comprehensive profit in North China is 197 yuan/ton, and the double - ton price difference is 3241 yuan [3] - The demand is neutral. The pipe production rate is 38.00% (+5%), and the profile production rate is 30.0% (+2.61%), gradually recovering after the Spring Festival. The quotes of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC for export have strengthened significantly, and trading has improved [3] - The macro - situation is neutral with a slight bullish bias. Against the background of geopolitical conflicts, energy and chemical products have shown strong performance [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Materials 3.1.1 Semi - coke - Semi - coke production has declined, with the sample enterprise production rate at 53.26%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous period. The price of medium - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] 3.1.2 Calcium Carbide - Calcium carbide supply has slightly declined, with the production rate dropping 1.58 percentage points to 72.70%, and the overall production rate is relatively low. The price of calcium carbide has rebounded, with the price in Wuhai at 2550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan from last week [10] 3.2 PVC Production - This week, the overall PVC powder production rate is 78.49%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. The production rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder is 81.89%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points, and the production rate of ethylene - based PVC powder is 71.00%, a decrease of 6.24 percentage points [15] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream production has recovered from a low level. The pipe production rate is 38.00% (+5%), and the profile production rate is 30.0% (+2.61%), gradually recovering after the Spring Festival [24] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory has increased. The social inventory is 122.8 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons from the previous period. Among them, the sample inventory in East China is 117.7 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons, and the sample inventory in South China is 5.13 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons [34] - The upstream factory inventory has decreased. The factory inventory is 37.19 tons, a decrease of 6.76 tons from the previous period. The industrial chain inventory has decreased [37] 3.5 PVC Profit 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide - based Profit - The profit of calcium carbide integration has improved. The profit of Xinjiang's integration is 330 yuan/ton, and the profit of the Northwest's integration is - 362 yuan/ton. The calcium carbide - purchasing method has turned profitable, with a profit of 7.5 yuan per ton in the Northwest and 14 yuan per ton in North China [49] 3.5.2 Ethylene - based Profit - The profit of the ethylene - purchasing method has declined. The profit of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 369 yuan/ton, and the profit in North China is 519 yuan/ton. The increase in ethylene price has compressed the profit [52] 3.5.3 Comprehensive Profit and Double - ton Price Difference - The comprehensive profit has recovered. The comprehensive profit in the Northwest is 919 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit in Shandong is 197 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference has rebounded from a low level to 3241 yuan/ton [60] 3.6 Import and Export - In 2025, exports were good. The total annual export volume of PVC powder was 382.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.05%. Exports were strong in December, with an export volume of 31.41 tons, an increase of 3.88 tons from the previous month. The import volume of PVC powder from January to December was 22.66 tons, basically the same as last year [66] - The export of floor has declined. The cumulative export of floor from January to December was 415.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [71] 3.7 Related Commodities - The demand for cement has been average. Since 2024, the real - estate demand has continued to weaken, the cement price has declined, and the production rate has been at a low level [76] 3.8 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market has strengthened. The 05 contract has risen from 5229 last week to 5901. The month - spread has strengthened significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread at 16. The registered warrants have been continuously cancelled. On March 16, the number of warrants was 72760, a decrease of 6140 from last week [86] 3.9 PVC Balance Sheet | PVC Variety | 2026/1 | 2026/2 | 2026/3 | 2026/4 | 2026/5 | 2026/6 | 2026/7 | 2026/8 | 2026/9 | 2026/10 | 2026/11 | 2026/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Production (tons) | 216.5 | 210.0 | 187.0 | 180.0 | 190.0 | 194.0 | 195.0 | 196.0 | 197.0 | 195.0 | 196.0 | 196.0 | | Total Demand (tons) | 180.5 | 134.0 | 156.0 | 164.0 | 170.0 | 170.0 | 165.0 | 166.0 | 167.0 | 168.0 | 170.0 | 168.0 | | Import (tons) | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | | Excess (tons) | 7.0 | 38.0 | - 10.0 | - 16.0 | - 2.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | | Year - on - Year Production Growth Rate | 4.09% | 12.30% | - 8.33% | - 6.54% | - 5.00% | - 1.97% | - 2.01% | - 4.99% | - 3.38% | - 8.62% | - 2.00% | - 4.39% | | Year - on - Year Demand Growth Rate | 20.33% | | - 12.76% | - 12.16% | - 7.34% | - 2.30% | - 2.86% | 2.55% | - 3.32% | 2.14% | - 5.51% | - 2.33% | | Cumulative Year - on - Year Production Growth Rate | 4.09% | 7.97% | | 2.42% | - 0.24% | - 0.82% | - 1.01% | | - 1.15% | - 1.65% | - 1.85% | - 2.56% | - 2.51% | - 2.67% | | Cumulative Year - on - Year Demand Growth Rate | 20.33% | 3.59% | - 2.22% | - 3.60% | - 3.33% | - 3.25% | - 2.45% | - 2.56% | - 2.05% | - 2.42% | - 2.19% | - 2.20% | [88]
铁合金早报-20260318
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 01:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the content Summary by Relevant Categories Price - For silicon iron, the latest prices of different regions and varieties are presented. For example, the latest price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5500, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30. The main contract price is 5928, with a daily increase of 56 and a weekly increase of 52 [1]. - For silicon manganese, the closing price of the main contract of CZCE silicon manganese is shown, along with its basis in different regions and the price differences between different contracts [5]. Supply - The production data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided. For example, the monthly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China and the weekly production of silicon manganese in China are presented [3][5]. - The capacity utilization rates of silicon iron production enterprises in different regions, such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, are also given [3]. Demand - The production and demand - related data of downstream products are provided, including the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the production of metallic magnesium, and the procurement data of HeSteel Group for silicon iron and silicon manganese [3][5][6]. Inventory - The inventory data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon iron in different regions, the warehouse receipt and effective forecast data of silicon iron and silicon manganese, and the average available days of inventory in different regions [4][6]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the market price of manganese ore [4][5]. - The profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including the production profit of semi - coke, the cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon manganese in different regions [4][6].
PVC产业链周报:PVC+NAOH+CL-20260315
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-15 06:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the total PVC production increased slightly, with the calcium carbide method increasing its load and the ethylene method decreasing its load. After the upstream ethylene reduces its load next week, the production of ethylene - based PVC will decrease, and the overall PVC production is expected to continue to decline [6]. - The export order volume has slightly recovered. In addition to tariff factors, the increase in PVC costs globally may lead to better - than - expected exports. Currently, the market generally believes that PVC has price competitive advantages even if the export tax rebate is cancelled [6]. - This week, the apparent demand has returned to normal levels, and the expected apparent demand for next week is calculated at 44.91 tons. The inventory decreased by 85,000 tons this week and is expected to continue to decline next week [6]. - The spot price of caustic soda fluctuated strongly, the price of calcium carbide increased this week, the price of semi - coke remained stable, and the price of ethylene increased significantly due to the reduction in the load of ethylene plants [7]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has slightly improved. Attention should be paid to whether the production of ethylene - based PVC will be reduced [9]. - Upstream: The price of PVC and caustic soda has increased, and the comprehensive profit has improved. The production of calcium carbide - based PVC has increased, and the production of ethylene - based PVC may decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction in the load of upstream cracking units. Midstream: Traders mainly adopt the spot - futures arbitrage strategy, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. The cancellation of warehouse receipts next week may put some pressure on the spot market. Downstream: The downstream operating rate is still weak, but there is a slight situation of stockpiling [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Overview and Balance Sheet - **Supply and Demand Summary**: This week, the total PVC production was 497,400 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from last week. The production of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 8,400 tons, and the production of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 9,600 tons. The import volume remained at 5,000 tons per week, and the export volume remained at 67,500 tons per week. The apparent demand this week was 519,900 tons, an increase of 60,800 tons from last week. The total inventory decreased by 85,000 tons to 1,009,100 tons [6]. - **Monthly Balance Sheet**: From January 2025 to December 2026, the cumulative production, cumulative apparent demand, and cumulative export volume of PVC showed different trends. For example, the cumulative production in December 2026 was 2,558,230 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.76% [11]. - **Weekly Balance Sheet**: From February 6, 2026, to April 17, 2026, the production, import, export, apparent consumption, and inventory of PVC changed. For example, on March 13, 2026, the total production was 497,400 tons, the import volume was 5,000 tons, the export volume was 67,500 tons, the apparent consumption was 519,900 tons, and the ending inventory was 1,009,100 tons [12]. 3.2 Spot Market - **PVC Price and Basis**: The spot prices of different PVC processes (calcium carbide method and ethylene method) in different regions (East China, North China, South China, etc.) changed from March 4 to March 13, 2026. The basis of different contracts (01, 05, 09) also fluctuated during this period [17][18]. - **Related Product Prices**: The prices of related products such as caustic soda 32%, Shandong liquid chlorine, Shandong raw salt, Shaanxi semi - coke, Shandong calcium carbide, Shaanxi calcium carbide, Wuhai calcium carbide, East China ethylene, imported ethylene, and VCM changed this week. For example, the price of caustic soda 32% increased from 600 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton, and the price of East China ethylene increased from 7,000 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of different regions (East China, South China, Shandong) and different contracts (01, 05, 09) fluctuated this week. For example, the East China calcium carbide - based basis increased from - 256 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) also changed. For example, the 5 - 9 spread increased from - 86 to - 13 [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different PVC production methods (calcium carbide production, PVC northwest integration, northwest external purchase of calcium carbide method, Shandong external purchase of calcium carbide method, imported ethylene method, East China external purchase of VCM method, Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive) changed this week. For example, the calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 602 yuan/ton to - 502 yuan/ton [9]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The export profits of different regions (FOB Tianjin relative export profit, theoretical export to India profit, theoretical export to Southeast Asia profit) improved this week. For example, the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from - 183 yuan/ton to 916 yuan/ton [9]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Production Profit - **Upstream Production**: The total PVC production this week was 497,400 tons, with the calcium carbide - based production being 356,600 tons and the ethylene - based production being 140,800 tons. The production and operating rates of PVC in previous years and different periods are also presented in the report [35]. - **Upstream Device Operating Rate**: The domestic capacity utilization rate, calcium carbide - based capacity utilization rate, and ethylene - based capacity utilization rate of PVC in different years and months are shown in the report [38][39][41]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The production profits of different PVC production methods (calcium carbide in Shaanxi, Shandong external purchase of calcium carbide method, northwest integrated PVC, northwest external purchase of calcium carbide - based PVC, imported VCM - based PVC, imported ethylene - based PVC, Inner Mongolia integrated PVC, Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive, Shanxi chlor - alkali comprehensive) in different years and months are presented in the report [54][57][61]. 3.6 PVC Import and Export - **International Price Situation**: The international prices of PVC (FOB Tianjin, CFR China, CFR India) in different years and months are shown in the report [68][70][72]. - **Export Profit**: The export profits of different regions (FOB Tianjin relative export profit, theoretical export to India profit, theoretical export to Southeast Asia profit) in different years and months are presented in the report [76][78][80]. - **Container Freight Index**: The China Export Container Freight Index (comprehensive index, Southeast Asia route, US West route, Europe route) in different years and months is shown in the report [83][84][85][87]. 3.7 PVC Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PVC downstream industries (overall downstream, profiles, pipes) in different years and months are presented in the report [91][93]. 3.8 PVC Industry Chain Inventory - **PVC Inventory**: The upstream inventory (total upstream, calcium carbide - based upstream, ethylene - based upstream), social inventory (new sample), total inventory (upstream + mid - stream), social inventory, inventory - to - consumption ratio, and warehouse receipts of PVC in different years and months are presented in the report [98][101].