04 成本端 02 期现市场 投产如期落地， 库存上升至季节性高位 PVC月报 2025/10/10 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 01 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2400元/吨，月同比持平；山东电石价格报2890元/吨，月同比上涨160元/吨；兰炭陕西中料730元/吨，月同比上 涨70元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润从高位大幅下跌，乙烯制利润小幅改善，整体估值支撑走强。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率82.6%，月同比上升5.5%；其中电石法82.9%，月同比上升6.2%；乙烯法81.9%，月同比上升3.8%。上月检修量小幅增加， 平均产能利用率低于八月，但新装置释放产量，供应压力实际上升。本月检修力度预期减小，且今年剩余两套新装置计划试车投产，预计供 给压力持续上升。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，八月出口量同比增幅较上半年偏弱， ...

转自：新华财经 从攻克矸山治理的"火焰山"难题，到实现清洁能源利用的持续突破，再到推动全产业的节能降耗与污染 减排，一直以来，华阳集团聚焦"双碳"目标，全面扛起环境保护社会责任，加快生产方式绿色变革，统 筹抓好降碳、减污、扩绿、增长协同发展，打好污染防治攻坚战，以实际行动践行"绿水青山就是金山 银山"的理念，全力打造"绿色华阳"。 新技术+智能化 破解矸石山治理难题 矸石山因内部持续发热、易复燃的特性，长期以来是矿区生态治理的难题。在华阳集团二矿狮脑山，一 根根银灰色的温控管整齐矗立。这些温控管并非简单的建筑构件，而是整个温控法治理技术体系的核心 载体，是破解矸山"内热"顽疾、为后续生态恢复扫清障碍的关键"利器"。 九洲公司工程管理中心副主任蔡胜军表示，我们过去采用的治理方式虽然能在一定程度上减少火灾隐 患，但始终没能从根本上解决内部热源问题。而温控法技术则通过温控管持续导出矸山内部热量，有效 避免矸石复燃现象，最大程度保护原有生态环境，同时大幅降低治理成本。 "值得一提的是，矸山治理达到技术指标要求后，温控装置可拔出重复利用，节约了资源、节省了治理 费用。此外，温控装置提取的热量还可开发利用，产生一定的经济 ...

库存 成本利润 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：内 ...

冠通期货-PVC 2025年四季报 新增产能投产与反内卷博弈 研究咨询部 苏妙达 时间：2025年9月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 1 ⚫ 成本端，电石价格受煤炭价格上涨及有序用电影响而上涨，电石整体供应过剩之下，对PVC价格有一定的支撑，但电石价格继续推涨PVC价格 的空间不大。"以碱补氯"下，以目前的现金流还未引发PVC装置的停产。目前PVC开工率升至历年同期偏高水平。10-11月，PVC将进入秋季 检修旺季，如内蒙君正、山东信发、河南联创等装置计划检修，不过8-9月刚投产的140万吨/年新增产能在四季度将完全释放产能，30万吨/ 年的嘉化能源或将在四季度投产，预计秋检难以抵消新增产能带来的增量。六部门联合发布建材行业稳增长工作方案，只是目前PVC产业还 未有实际政策落地，老装置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情，值 得重点关注。2025年1-8月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 期货合约 收盘价 较前一交易日 成交量 持仓量 | 期 货 | 硅铁2601 | 5628 | -108 | 92,203 | 99,910 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锰硅2511 | 5828 | -96 | 155,732 | 63,093 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5848 | -90 | 244,524 | 335,692 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5380 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5700 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰矿:Mn44块 | | 40.0 | - | 元/吨度 | | | 兰炭:小料:神木 | | 710 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅铁 期现价差 | （现货-11期货） 硅铁2511-2601 | -280 3 2 | +126 -18 | 元/吨 ...

库存 成本利润 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：内 ...

日前，记者从新疆生产建设兵团第十三师淖毛湖农场经济发展办公室获悉，前三季度，团场经济运行稳 中有进。规上工业产值达73亿元，可比价增速达18.16%，1至9月平均增速22.58%，为师市经济高质量 发展提供强劲动力。 9月18日，记者走进位于淖毛湖经济技术开发区的新疆奥斯兰宇科技能源有限公司中控室，工作人员正 通过监控设备，熟练监控集散控制系统，厂区内各设备有条不紊运转。 "在前期生产过程中，我们发现了推焦、出焦刮板的一些问题，今年我们对发现的问题进行了技术改造 和升级，目前设备运行已达到预想效果，生产的产品兰炭、煤焦油质量在同行业名列前茅。"该公司生 产厂长李富江说。 据悉，今年1至8月，该公司16台碳化炉实现正常安全生产，并圆满完成碳化炉大修任务，完成产值5.4 亿元。 工业经济的迅猛增长，离不开淖毛湖农场的精准施策与有力推动。今年以来，淖毛湖农场聚焦经济高质 量发展第一要务，立足本地资源优势，大力发展循环经济，全面提高资源利用效率，通过抓企业、抓项 目、抓重点、抓监管等多项举措，为经济稳健运行保驾护航。 "淖毛湖农场将持续狠抓能力提升，在强化企业服务、项目推进、日常管理等方面下功夫，争取在第四 季度确保 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, prices vary by region and type, e.g., Ningxia 72 natural block is 5380 with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 100; Tianjin 72 export price is 1025 USD with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, Inner Mongolia 6517 factory - ex price is 5730 with a weekly change of 50 [1]. - Multiple price charts for different types of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including market prices, contract closing prices, and basis prices [2][6]. Supply - 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises' production data in China is presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025. Silicon manganese production in China is also shown on a weekly basis from 2021 - 2025 [4][6]. Demand - Indicators related to demand such as China's estimated and actual crude steel production, metal magnesium production and prices, silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and silicon manganese demand in China are presented from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese are provided, including inventory of 60 sample enterprises in different regions, warehouse - receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days from 2021 - 2025 [5][7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data like electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials such as semi - carbonated manganese ore and manganese blocks, and profit - related data such as production profit of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Various prices of silicon ferroalloys (FeSi) and silicon manganese (SiMn) in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including market prices, export/import prices, and contract closing prices [1][2][6] - Price differences between different grades and regions are also shown, such as 72%FeSi and 75%FeSi, and price spreads between regions like the north - south spread of SiMn [1][6] Supply - Production data of silicon ferroalloys and silicon manganese are provided, including monthly and weekly production volumes, and capacity utilization rates in different regions [4][6] - The supply - related data cover 136 sample enterprises for silicon ferroalloys and the overall production situation of silicon manganese in China [4][6] Demand - Demand - related data include the demand volume of silicon manganese in China, and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7] - Production data of related industries like crude steel, stainless - steel, and metal magnesium are also presented, which are relevant to the demand for ferroalloys [4] Inventory - Inventory data of silicon ferroalloys and silicon manganese are provided, including inventory levels of sample enterprises in different regions, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts [5][7] - Inventory average available days in different regions and the whole country are also shown [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi [5] - Profit data cover the production profit of semi - coke, the profit of silicon ferroalloys in different regions, and the profit of silicon manganese in different regions [5][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined, the valuation pressure has decreased, the maintenance volume is low, and the production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new devices will be tested. On the downstream side, domestic operations have improved. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India has been determined, and exports are expected to weaken after implementation. The cost of calcium carbide has continued to rebound, while caustic soda has declined, leading to stronger overall valuation support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the significant increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real - estate demand, and the industry pattern has deteriorated. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity. Overall, given the current situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, with the weakening export outlook, even if the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there will be a small rebound due to stronger valuation support, improved domestic demand, and a better commodity atmosphere. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has decreased, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased slightly. Currently, the valuation support is neutral [11] - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 77.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Last week, the supply - side load decreased mainly due to the reduced loads of enterprises such as Shaanxi Beiyuan, Gansu Jinchuan, Zhongtai, Henan Yuhang, and Haohua. The load is expected to pick up slightly next week. The overall maintenance volume in September is expected to decline, and multiple devices are expected to be commissioned and put into production, further increasing the supply pressure [11] - **Demand**: Regarding exports, the final anti - dumping tax rate ruling result in India has been announced, and China's tax rate is at a significant disadvantage compared to other countries. Exports are expected to decline after implementation. The operations of the three major downstream industries continued to improve last week. The load of the pipe industry is 39.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%; the load of the film industry is 76.9%, remaining flat month - on - month; the load of the profile industry is 39.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream load is 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The overall downstream operations have stabilized and improved. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 756,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons [11] - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 306,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons; the social inventory was 954,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the mid - stream. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The basis and price spread in the futures and spot market are fluctuating weakly, but specific data and analysis details are not provided in the text, only relevant charts are mentioned [16] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined, and the valuation is neutral. The text also provides charts showing the profit trends of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, PVC calcium carbide - based production, PVC ethylene - based production, and Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide production [40] - **Inventory**: The text provides charts showing the inventory trends of PVC in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts [34][37][39] 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices have continued to rebound. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide has increased week - on - week. The text also provides charts showing the price trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate [47][49] - **Other Raw Materials**: Semi - coke prices have risen, while caustic soda prices have fallen. The text provides charts showing the price trends of semi - coke in Shaanxi, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot prices [52][53] 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the production capacity of PVC will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. Multiple enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) will put new production capacity into operation. The total planned new production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year [61][66] 6. Demand Side - The operating loads of the three major downstream industries of PVC have continued to improve. The operating rates of pipes, films, and profiles have either increased or remained stable. The pre - sales volume of PVC has also increased. However, regarding exports, due to the anti - dumping tax rate ruling in India, exports are expected to decline [78][11]