Economic Overview - The latest "hard data" indicates that the US economy remains resilient, with Q1 GDP showing a private sector annualized growth rate of 3.0% after excluding inventory, government purchases, and trade [2] - The job market is stable, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2] - High-frequency data suggests that the impact of tariffs on the US economy is beginning to manifest, but a recession is still distant. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q2 annualized growth rate for private consumption of 1.9% and a significant drop in private investment growth to 1.3% [2] Market Sentiment and Currency - During the May Day holiday, the risk appetite in overseas markets improved due to better-than-expected non-farm payrolls and signs of easing trade tensions, leading to a rise in US stocks and a rebound in US Treasury yields [4] - The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly, breaking the 7.20 mark, driven by improved market sentiment [4] - The medium-term outlook for the US dollar shows a decline in its fundamental advantages, with short-term fluctuations dependent on trade negotiations [4] Gold Market - The risk of stagflation in the US is rising, coupled with increased central bank gold purchases, suggesting a bullish fundamental outlook for gold. However, short-term overbought conditions may lead to some price correction [5] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand is under pressure, with retail and catering sales during the May Day holiday increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, surpassing previous holiday performances, while real estate transactions show significant divergence across cities [7] - In April, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a negative growth trend since November of the previous year [7] - Cross-border tourism has shown strong performance, with international flight numbers increasing by 21.3% year-on-year [8] External Demand and Policy Measures - Overall external demand pressure is evident, but there are signs of recovery in import demand as US importers deplete inventories. Key port throughput has increased since mid-April [8] - The Chinese government is set to implement policies aimed at stabilizing employment, foreign trade, and consumption, with measures expected to roll out in the second quarter [9] - Fiscal measures will accelerate the implementation of the annual budget, focusing on local government bond issuance to support basic livelihood needs [9]