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燃料油早报-20250708
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and EW oscillated at a low level. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $3.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU09 domestic - foreign spread weakened significantly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. [5] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, and the 8 - 9 month spread oscillated around $6. The LU domestic - foreign spread remained strong, with LU09 oscillating around $17. [5] - This week, there was an inventory build - up on land in Singapore. The window was under delivery pressure, and the near - month contract was under pressure. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, the high - sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season, and the domestic - foreign spread had dropped rapidly. The valuation of the low - sulfur on the external market was relatively high, and the LU domestic - foreign spread was running at a high level. One should pay attention to the domestic production situation. [6] 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 | +$9.14 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | +$6.10 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | +$0.26 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$6.08 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$12.18 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$2.02 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -$3.04 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$1.70 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$1.01 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -$4.70 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | +$1.36 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | +$0.25 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -$14.77 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | FOB 380cst | -$1.05 | | FOB VLSFO | -$5.58 | | 380 Basis | +$0.15 | | High - sulfur Domestic - foreign Spread | -$1.8 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - foreign Spread | +$0.7 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | FU 01 | -9 | | FU 05 | -11 | | FU 09 | -19 | | FU 01 - 05 | +2 | | FU 05 - 09 | +8 | | FU 09 - 01 | -10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | LU 01 | -12 | | LU 05 | -8 | | LU 09 | -2 | | LU 01 - 05 | - | | LU 05 - 09 | -6 | | LU 09 - 01 | +10 | [5]
燃料油早报-20250624
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 02:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated. Crude oil prices rose significantly. High - sulfur fuel oil with a large proportion of Iranian supply performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380 - cst monthly spread fluctuated, with the 8 - 9 month spread at $7.5. The basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between the near and far months of the FU inside - outside market. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 - cst crack spread in Singapore declined, and the monthly spread fluctuated [5]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, low - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's inventory decreased, floating storage inventory fluctuated, and the US inventory decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and the shipments were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region and not being able to participate in the physical delivery of the futures market. It is expected that Iran's future shipments will decline, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact scale will increase. Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the external market is running strongly, the near - month contracts of the FU inside - outside market are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply interruption on the far - month contracts, while the inside - outside valuation of the LU is high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$4.35 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +$1.35 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.68 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$14.62 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$15.97 | | LGO - Brent M1 | +$4.09 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$5.70 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | -$6.99 | | 180cst M1 | -$6.02 | | VLSFO M1 | -$3.46 | | Gasoil M1 | -$2.85 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.71 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$17.63 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$3.22 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.88 | | 380 Basis | +$0.95 | | High - sulfur Inside - outside Spread | +$0.8 | | Low - sulfur Inside - outside Spread | +$2.6 | [4] Domestic FU Futures Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +28 | | FU 05 | +21 | | FU 09 | +22 | | FU 01 - 05 | +7 | | FU 05 - 09 | -1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -6 | [4] Domestic LU Futures Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +49 | | LU 05 | +14 | | LU 09 | +51 | | LU 01 - 05 | +35 | | LU 05 - 09 | -37 | | LU 09 - 01 | +2 | [5]
燃料油早报-20250423
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 07:50
Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur cracking spread began to decline this week, the 380 - month spread fluctuated at a high level, and the 380 basis weakened. The low - sulfur cracking spread, month spread, and basis all fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, on - land inventories in Singapore and ARA continued to accumulate, while US residual oil inventories decreased. Singapore's high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, the Middle East's high - sulfur floating storage fluctuated, and low - sulfur floating storage decreased. European floating storage increased significantly. In 2025, pay attention to the impact of sanctions on Iran on global heavy - quality valuations. In the Asian region, focus on whether Russian supply will return to the benchmark. The far - month 380 has downside potential. Recently, global and Singapore residual oil inventories have been increasing, so the near - month 380 is expected to face continued pressure. The low - sulfur market remains in a volatile pattern [3][8] Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data 3.5% HSF Swap M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 397.83. On April 17, it was 408.43, with a change of 10.57 [1] 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 430.85. On April 17, it was 441.13, with a change of 8.40 [1] HSFO - Brent M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 2.30. On April 17, it was - 2.30, with a change of 0.34 [1] 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 595.85. On April 17, it was 607.75, with a change of 10.40 [1] VLSFO - Gasoil M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 165.00. On April 17, it was - 166.62, with a change of - 2.00 [1] LGO - Brent M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 16.43. On April 17, it was 15.93, with a change of 0.19 [1] VLSFO - HSFO M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 33.02. On April 17, it was 32.70, with a change of - 2.17 [1] Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data 380cst M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 413.13. On April 22, it was 423.34, with a change of 3.36 [1] 180cst M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 425.63. On April 22, it was 437.60, with a change of 3.81 [1] VLSFO M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 462.42. On April 22, it was 476.78, with a change of 3.74 [1] Gasoil M1 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 80.00. On April 22, it was 81.42, with a change of 0.20 [1] 380cst - Brent M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 0.96. On April 22, it was 0.55, with a change of 0.24 [1] VLSFO - Gasoil M1 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 129.58. On April 22, it was - 125.73, with a change of 2.26 [1] Group 4: Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data FOB 380cst - On April 16, 2025, the price was 416.99. On April 22, it was 422.28, with a change of 5.61 [2] FOB VLSFO - On April 16, 2025, the price was 470.33. On April 22, it was 481.09, with a change of 3.35 [2] 380 Basis - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 0.55. On April 22, it was - 1.35, with a change of 2.70 [2] High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread - On April 16, 2025, the value was 7.3. On April 22, it was 6.9, with a change of - 0.7 [2] Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread - On April 16, 2025, the value was 4.1. On April 22, it was 5.1, with a change of 1.1 [2] Group 5: Domestic FU Data FU 01 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 2637. On April 22, it was 2734, with a change of - 13 [2] FU 05 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3016. On April 22, it was 3035, with a change of - 13 [2] FU 09 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 2758. On April 22, it was 2863, with a change of - 1 [2] FU 01 - 05 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 379. On April 22, it was - 301, with a change of 0 [2] FU 05 - 09 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 258. On April 22, it was 172, with a change of - 12 [2] FU 09 - 01 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 121. On April 22, it was 129, with a change of 12 [2] Group 6: Domestic LU Data LU 01 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3262. On April 22, it was 3352, with a change of 10 [3] LU 05 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3350. On April 22, it was 3478, with a change of 33 [3] LU 09 - On April 16, 2025, the price was 3274. On April 22, it was 3387, with a change of 13 [3] LU 01 - 05 - On April 16, 2025, the value was - 88. On April 22, it was - 126, with a change of - 23 [3] LU 05 - 09 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 76. On April 22, it was 91, with a change of 20 [3] LU 09 - 01 - On April 16, 2025, the value was 12. On April 22, it was 35, with a change of 3 [3]