中国核电（601985.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 所得税影响 24 年业绩，Q1 核电业绩符合预期 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 营收 772.72 亿元，同比+3.09%；归母净利 87.77 亿元，同比-17.38%；基本每 股收益 0.463 元。24Q4 公司营收 202.9 亿元，同比+7.5%；归母净利润亏损 1.56 亿元，同比-112.0%。25Q1 公司营收 202.73 亿元，同比+12.7%；归母净 利 31.37 亿元，同比+2.55%。 ➢ 所得税费用影响 24Q4 业绩，新能源利润下滑拉低 25Q1 业绩增速。24 年 公司所得税费用同比增加 24.4 亿元，主要系计提增值税返还对应所得税费用所 致，相关税费已于期后完成缴纳。25Q1 新能源收入同比+24.64%，但因新能源 增收不增利，且新能源上年发行两期类 REITS、市场化债转股稀释归母净利润， 增资引战导致归母比例下降，最终 Q1 归母净利润同比-51.32%；核电业务收入 同比+10.46%，归 ...

中国核电（601985.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 所得税影响 24 年业绩，Q1 核电业绩符合预期 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 营收 772.72 亿元，同比+3.09%；归母净利 87.77 亿元，同比-17.38%；基本每 股收益 0.463 元。24Q4 公司营收 202.9 亿元，同比+7.5%；归母净利润亏损 1.56 亿元，同比-112.0%。25Q1 公司营收 202.73 亿元，同比+12.7%；归母净 利 31.37 亿元，同比+2.55%。 ➢ 所得税费用影响 24Q4 业绩，新能源利润下滑拉低 25Q1 业绩增速。24 年 公司所得税费用同比增加 24.4 亿元，主要系计提增值税返还对应所得税费用所 致，相关税费已于期后完成缴纳。25Q1 新能源收入同比+24.64%，但因新能源 增收不增利，且新能源上年发行两期类 REITS、市场化债转股稀释归母净利润， 增资引战导致归母比例下降，最终 Q1 归母净利润同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Recommended" due to sufficient growth potential in installed capacity and long-term value [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.30 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue increase of 21.84% year-on-year, reaching 5.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 41.56% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in power generation is driven by new energy installed capacity, new hydropower stations coming online, optimized scheduling of the Lancang River cascade, and increased domestic electricity demand [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 24.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.30 billion yuan, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.46 yuan [3][7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.93 billion yuan, 9.99 billion yuan, and 10.34 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [6][7]. Installed Capacity and Generation - As of the end of 2024, the company had an installed capacity of 31.01 million kilowatts, including 27.31 million kilowatts from hydropower and 3.70 million kilowatts from new energy sources [4]. - The total power generation for 2024 was 112.01 billion kilowatt-hours, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both large and small hydropower stations [4]. Future Growth Prospects - The TB hydropower station, with a total installed capacity of 1.4 million kilowatts, is expected to generate approximately 6.23 billion kilowatt-hours annually, contributing to future growth [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 6 billion yuan to fund the construction of new hydropower stations, indicating a positive outlook for long-term economic benefits [5]. Pricing and Cost Management - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 was 0.253 yuan per kilowatt-hour, reflecting a slight decline due to increased renewable energy capacity and market price fluctuations [6]. - The company has optimized its debt financing structure, resulting in a decrease in financial expenses and improved profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Recommended" due to sufficient growth potential in installed capacity and long-term value [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.30 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue increase of 21.84% year-on-year, reaching 5.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 41.56% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in power generation is driven by new energy installed capacity, new hydropower stations coming online, and increased electricity demand in Yunnan [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 24.88 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.30 billion yuan and a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.46 yuan [3][7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.93 billion yuan, 9.99 billion yuan, and 10.34 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [6][7]. Installed Capacity and Generation - As of the end of 2024, the company had an installed capacity of 31.01 million kilowatts, including 27.31 million kilowatts from hydropower and 3.70 million kilowatts from new energy sources [4]. - The total power generation in 2024 was 112.01 billion kilowatt-hours, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from new energy sources [4][5]. Future Growth Potential - The TB hydropower station, with a total installed capacity of 1.4 million kilowatts, is expected to generate approximately 6.23 billion kilowatt-hours annually, contributing to future growth [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 6 billion yuan for the construction of new hydropower stations, indicating a positive long-term economic outlook [5]. Pricing and Revenue Structure - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 was 0.253 yuan/kWh, reflecting a decrease of nearly 2 cents year-on-year, influenced by increased new energy capacity and market price fluctuations [6]. - The company's electricity revenue accounted for 99.15% of total revenue, highlighting its reliance on power generation for income [6].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating a mixed performance amid a challenging market environment [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 39.813 billion yuan, down 12.61% year-on-year and 12.15% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.811 billion yuan, up 1.45% year-on-year and up 182.81% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.608 billion yuan, down 7.42% year-on-year but up 15,332.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 14.026 billion yuan, up 92.79% year-on-year but down 24.54% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Operational Metrics - The company's electricity generation decreased due to a relaxed supply-demand situation and increased renewable energy capacity, with total electricity generated at 94.935 billion kWh, down 5.72% year-on-year and 11.27% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Breakdown of electricity generation: - Thermal power: 77.992 billion kWh, down 9.34% year-on-year and 9.77% quarter-on-quarter - Hydropower: 7.190 billion kWh, down 6.96% year-on-year and 40.08% quarter-on-quarter - Wind power: 5.715 billion kWh, up 11.23% year-on-year and 5.74% quarter-on-quarter - Photovoltaic power: 4.038 billion kWh, up 123.78% year-on-year and 16.44% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Pricing and Capacity - The average on-grid electricity price was 425.41 yuan per MWh, down 6.62% year-on-year and 2.35% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 116.3914 million kW, with thermal power at 75.629 million kW, hydropower at 14.9506 million kW, wind power at 9.9118 million kW, and photovoltaic at 15.90 million kW [3]. Cost Management - Operating costs decreased by 13.19% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, attributed to effective coal procurement strategies and cost control measures [4]. - Significant reductions in expenses were noted: - Sales expenses down 63.88% - Management expenses down 16.86% - R&D expenses down 18.08% - Financial expenses down 13.46% - Income tax expenses down 8.79% [4]. Growth Prospects - The company has substantial long-term growth potential in installed capacity, with ongoing projects in thermal, wind, and hydropower expected to contribute to future earnings [5]. - New thermal power projects are set to commence in high-price regions, while renewable energy capacity continues to expand significantly [5]. Industry Position - The company is a leading player in the energy sector, backed by strong shareholder support and a robust asset quality, positioning it well for future growth [6]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.459 billion, 7.272 billion, and 8.283 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios indicating a favorable valuation [6].