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2024年报及2025年一季报点评效率进阶,再超预期
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-29 06:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, marking a return to profitability. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue reached 1.046 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, a 15.1% increase year-on-year [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue growth was driven by a significant increase in cream products, which saw a 61.8% year-on-year increase, while other segments like frozen baking and sauces experienced declines. The revenue distribution across channels in 2024 was 57% from circulation, 25% from supermarkets, and 18% from catering, with circulation and catering channels showing growth of approximately 15% and 20% respectively [1][4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.5%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 6.9%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin decreased to 30.0% due to rising raw material costs, but the net profit margin slightly improved to 8.5% [1][5]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to maintain solid growth momentum in 2025, with clear growth drivers identified in cream products, Sam's Club, and the catering sector. The management has implemented efficiency optimization measures, including a product manager responsibility system and a focus on large clients, which are anticipated to enhance profitability [1][4]. - The report projects a double-digit growth rate for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates adjusted to 1.97 yuan for 2025, 2.26 yuan for 2026, and 2.59 yuan for 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 14 respectively [1][5]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the industry, benefiting from channel advantages and ongoing management improvements. The report highlights the potential for continued benefits from changes in the baking channel and the development of Western-style dining opportunities [1][4].