Report Title - "Stock Index and Gold Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - September 12, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, China's import and export growth rates both declined, CPI turned negative again after two months, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, indicating weak domestic and foreign demand, weak consumer spending, and significant industrial deflation pressure. Future exports may face downward pressure. [4][42] - The policy of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in has driven up prices and improved profits in related industries, but downstream enterprises still face large operating pressures due to weak terminal demand. [16][42] - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has reached a new high, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment. [19] - In the US, CPI rose in August, new non - farm employment decreased for two consecutive months, and the unemployment rate reached a new high, strengthening the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. [27] - Shanghai's gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have soared, indicating increased demand for physical gold delivery and a resurgence of bullish sentiment. [37] - In the short term, the stock index may face a callback risk, and gold may experience increased volatility. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and gold may face a deep adjustment. [42][43] Summary by Directory Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In August, China's imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year, exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year, both down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month. CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, reflecting weak domestic and foreign demand, weak consumer spending, and large industrial deflation pressure. [4] Stock Index Fundamental Data Enterprise Profit - The policy of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in has driven up prices in related industries, but downstream enterprises still face large operating pressures due to weak terminal demand, and production costs are difficult to pass on to consumers. [16] Capital - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank carried out 1264.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. [19] Gold Fundamental Data US Economic Indicators - In August, the US CPI rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, reaching a new high since February. New non - farm employment was 22,000, decreasing for two consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a new high since August last year, indicating a cooling labor market and strengthening the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. [27] Gold Inventory - Shanghai's gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have soared, reflecting increased demand for physical gold delivery and a resurgence of bullish sentiment. [37] Strategy Recommendation Short - term - Due to the lack of significant improvement in corporate profits, the stock index may face a callback risk in the short term. As the Fed's September interest rate decision approaches, gold has entered a high - level oscillation after a rapid rise, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility. [43] Medium - to - Long - term - The stock index's valuation is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth but supported by the rise in risk preference, and it will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. Gold may face a deep adjustment due to the digestion of positive factors. [43]