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航发动力(600893):公司首次覆盖报告:国之重器长坡厚雪,产品龙头军民市场广阔
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 50.42 CNY, compared to the current price of 38.28 CNY [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand in both military and civilian aviation engine markets, leading to expected high growth in performance [2][11]. - The company is the only entity in China capable of producing a full range of military aviation engines, holding a leading position in the military aviation engine market [11][49]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 50.27 billion CNY in 2025, 57.82 billion CNY in 2026, and 63.60 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][21]. Financial Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 43.73 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and is expected to reach 47.88 billion CNY in 2024, a growth of 9.5% [4][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline to 860 million CNY in 2024, down 39.5% from 2023, primarily due to increased R&D and financial expenses [4][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 0.35 CNY, 0.42 CNY, and 0.47 CNY respectively [11]. Company Overview - The company is a key platform for the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) and has a comprehensive product line in aviation engines, including turbojet, turbofan, turboshaft, turboprop, and piston engines [15][49]. - The company has seen steady revenue growth over the past five years, with a significant contribution from its four main engine manufacturing plants [21][30]. - The company is actively pursuing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, resulting in a decrease in management expense ratio from 5.85% in 2020 to 3.30% in 2024 [25][29]. Market Position - The company is expected to play a crucial role in the domestic commercial aviation engine market, which is projected to reach a trillion CNY, as it aims to break the foreign monopoly in this sector [11][49]. - The report highlights the high barriers to entry in the aviation engine industry, characterized by long development cycles and significant investment requirements, which provide a strong economic return [50][60]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for domestic military engines, especially as some military aircraft still rely on imported engines [11][49].