| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 广汽集团发布2025年一季度业绩，2025Q1公司营收为198.8亿元，同环比分别-8%/-40%，归母 净利润为-7.3亿元（2024Q1为12.2亿元，2024Q4为7亿元），扣非后归母净利润为-8.9亿元 （2024Q1为6.9亿元，2024Q4为-24.8亿元）。 业绩表现基本符合我们预期： 1）营收层面： 销量下滑影响公司Q1营收。公司Q1自主品牌销量同环比下降明显，其中广汽乘 用车/广汽埃安Q1批发销量分别为6.9/4.7万辆，同比分别-19%/-4%，环比分别-50%/-68%；广汽 自主品牌Q1 ASP为17.1万元，同环比分别+6%/+48%。 2）毛利率： 公司Q1销售毛利率为0.2%，同环比为-7%/-4.8%，主因是Q1降库批发下滑较多。 3）投资收益： 广汽本田/广汽丰田Q1销量分别为9.3/16.2万辆，同比分别-21%/+4%，环比分 别-43%/-27%。公司Q1投资收益总额为11.7亿元，同环比分别-36%/-68%，环比下滑主因为Q4 有巨湾部分股权转让收益。 4）最终公司Q1实现归母净利润为-7.3亿元（2024Q1为12.2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for GAC Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with significant improvements in sales and profitability in Q4 2024 compared to previous quarters [8] - GAC Group is establishing a project company in collaboration with Huawei, aiming to create a new luxury smart electric vehicle brand [8] - Due to increased industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, but the company is expected to enjoy a higher valuation due to ongoing reforms [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 129,706 million yuan, with a projected decline of 16.90% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 158,421 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 4,428.90 million yuan, with a significant projected decline of 81.40% in 2024, but a strong recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2024 is projected at 0.08 yuan, with a forecasted increase to 0.34 yuan in 2025 and 0.46 yuan in 2026 [1] Sales and Profitability Insights - In Q4 2024, GAC Group's revenue was 33.04 billion yuan, showing a 5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 16% increase year-on-year [8] - The wholesale sales of GAC's self-owned brands improved significantly, with GAC Passenger Cars and GAC Aion achieving year-on-year increases of 24.4% and 14.8%, respectively [8] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 5.1%, reflecting a slight decrease compared to previous quarters [8] Investment and Collaboration Developments - GAC Group announced the establishment of a GH project company with a registered capital of 1.5 billion yuan, focusing on deep collaboration with Huawei in product development and marketing strategies [8] - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths to create a new automotive brand based on advanced technology [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for GAC Group are 105.12 for 2024, decreasing to 24.81 in 2025, and further down to 15.55 by 2027 [1] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 0.76% in 2024 to 2.81% by 2027 [9]