Hello,大家好 今天我們來聊一個 九月魔咒的話題 所謂九月魔咒 就是說從歷史上看 從1928年以來的數據顯示 美股市場平均回報 最低的月份是九月份 它的平均回報率 是 -1.2% 並且這不僅僅 是美股特有的現象 全球股市包括 香港、英國和加拿大 都存在同樣的現象 為什麼會這樣呢 我想這主要有三個原因 第一個原因就是說 華爾街這些大機構 通常在每年的六月到八月 是他們的休假期 九月回到辦公室 幾乎所有大機構大投行 他們都在九月份 集中的進行 投資組合的調整 另外因為歷史統計上看 九月下跌的概率比較大 所以大家都希望 在這一個月迴避下跌 大家都在集中一個時間 來調整來賣出股票 就反而促成了 九月模式的自我實現 那麼另外一個原因 就是很多基金公司 他們每年財務年度 是在九月份結束 所有在九月 結束財務年度的基金 都希望在九月之前 把一些 表現不好的股票賣掉 調整自己的持倉 來讓自己的年度財報 看上去比較漂亮一些 這也是一個原因 就是大家集中的 在這樣的一個時間 進行調整 另外一個呢 美國政府的財務年度 是在九月份結束 那麼九月份也是 美聯儲一年一度 最重要的會議的一個節點 九月份的聯儲會議 決定了今年接下去 會 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The market is influenced by the recent US-China trade negotiations, which have seen a reduction in tariffs but lack significant progress [2] - The inflow of capital from mainland China has slowed down, impacting market sentiment [2] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for Q2 and various economic indicators for the first half of the year are key market focuses [3] - The People's Bank of China reported that new loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations, with total new loans for the first half of the year reaching 12.92 trillion yuan [9] - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, while imports rose by 1.1% [9] Company News - Alibaba is reportedly entering the food delivery market with plans for a "Super Saturday" campaign [4] - Li Ning's sales for Q2 recorded low single-digit growth [4] - Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Guotai Junan are expected to report positive earnings [4] - New World Development is in negotiations for a 15.6 billion yuan loan that has not been secured on time [4] - Yujian is conducting a share placement at a 9.5% discount to raise 1.04 billion yuan [4] - Ascentage Pharma is also conducting a share placement at an 8.2% discount to raise over 1.5 billion yuan [4] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,203 points, up 0.26% with a trading volume of 210.4 billion HKD [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and other indices showed varying performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.67% [5] Macro Focus - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a cautious outlook on inflation and economic uncertainty [4] - The European Union is preparing a sanctions list against the US, potentially affecting various sectors including aviation and automotive [4] - The global smartphone market saw a 1% increase in shipments, while China's market experienced a 1% decline [10]