Report Summary Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rose. The Hang Seng Index opened 38 points lower, dropped 96 points to 24,806 points in the morning, rebounded 100 points to 25,002 points before noon, and finally closed 8 points higher at 24,910 points. The H - share Index fell 18 points or 0.2% to 8,932 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 11 points or 0.2% to 5,532 points. The total turnover of the market was HK$215.235 billion [1]. - A - shares had a positive trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 16 points or 0.5% to 3,633 points with a turnover of RMB 707.2 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 70 points or 0.6% to 11,177 points with a turnover of RMB 1.03 trillion. The ChiNext Index rose 15 points or 0.7% to 2,358 points with a turnover of RMB 521.8 billion [1]. - In the US stock market, the Nasdaq outperformed. It rose 252 points or 1.2% to 21,169 points. The S&P 500 Index rose 45 points or 0.7% to 6,345 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 81 points or 0.2% to 44,193 points [2]. Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China conducted RMB 138.5 billion of seven - day reverse repurchase operations on the 6th, with an unchanged operating rate of 1.4%. There were RMB 309 billion of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of RMB 170.5 billion. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 43 pips to 7.1409 [1]. Company Earnings - Manulife Financial (00945.HK) reported its interim results for the six - month period ended June 30. Net income was CAD 2.274 billion, up 19.1% year - on - year and 16% at constant exchange rates. Core earnings were CAD 3.493 billion, up 1.3% year - on - year and down 2% at constant exchange rates. Earnings per share were CAD 1.23. An interim dividend of 44 cents was declared, compared with 40 cents in the same period last year [3]. - BeiGene (06160.HK) announced its Q2 results ended June 30. According to US GAAP, total revenue was USD 1.315 billion, a 42% year - on - year increase. Among them, the global revenue of Brukinsa was USD 950 million, a 49% increase. Benefiting from revenue growth and improved operating leverage, it recorded a net profit of USD 94.32 million, turning around from a loss of USD 120 million in the same period last year. Basic earnings per share were USD 0.07 [3]. Policy News - US President Trump said he might announce further tariffs on China, similar to the 25% tariff imposed on India for buying Russian oil. The specific situation would depend on future developments. Trump also announced plans to implement more secondary sanctions to force Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent warned China that it might face new tariffs if it continued to buy Russian oil [2]. - Trump said on Wednesday that the US would impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors and chips, but companies that moved production back to the US would be exempted [2].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index dropped 37 points or 0.1% to close at 25,524 points, the China Enterprises Index fell 31 points or 0.3% to end at 9,145 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined 19 points or 0.3% to finish at 5,644 points. The total turnover of the market was HK$267.01 billion [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 11 points or 0.3% to close at 3,609 points, with a turnover of RMB793.6 billion; the Shenzhen Component Index increased 71 points or 0.6% to end at 11,289 points, with a turnover of nearly RMB1.01 trillion; the ChiNext Index climbed 44 points or 1.9% to finish at 2,406 points, with a turnover of RMB492.2 billion [1]. - The S&P 500 Index slightly closed lower by 18 points or 0.3% at 6,370 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index ended down 80 points or 0.4% at 21,098 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 204 points or 0.5% lower at 44,632 points [2]. Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China conducted RMB449.2 billion of seven - day reverse repurchase operations on the 29th, with an operating rate unchanged at 1.4%. There were RMB214.8 billion of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net injection of RMB234.4 billion. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1511, down 44 points [1]. - The Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained its monetary policy unchanged, expecting economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, with the output level slightly below the economic potential, but core and overall inflation to remain between 0.5% - 1.5% [2]. - China and the US held a new round of economic and trade talks in Stockholm on the 29th. According to the consensus, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [3]. - In the first half of this year, the total profit of national state - owned enterprises was RMB2.18 trillion, down 3.1% year - on - year; the total operating income was RMB40.75 trillion, down 0.2% year - on - year; and the tax payable was about RMB3 trillion, down 0.8% year - on - year [3]. - In June 2025, the import of passenger cars in the Chinese mainland was 41,000 units (including chassis), down 30.3% year - on - year and 9.1% month - on - month. In the first half of the year, the cumulative import of passenger cars was 221,000 units, down 32.1% year - on - year [3]. Company News - China Ruyi (00136.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting to turn losses into profits in the six - month period ended June 30, 2025, with an unaudited after - tax comprehensive net profit of about RMB1 - 1.2 billion, compared with a net loss of about RMB123 million in the same period last year. Revenue is expected to be between about RMB2.1 - 2.3 billion, up 14% - 25% from about RMB1.84 billion in 2024 [4]. - Huaneng Power International (00902.HK) announced its interim results for the six months ended June. Operating income was RMB112.032 billion, down 5.7% year - on - year. Net profit was RMB9.578 billion, up 23.2%, with earnings per share of 52 cents. No interim dividend was declared [4]. - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting net profit for the six months ended June to be between RMB180 - 210 million, down 39.7% - 48.3% year - on - year; revenue to be between RMB1.82 - 1.85 billion, up 1.4% - 3.1% [4]. - Baosheng International (03813.HK) announced that it expects to record operating income of about RMB9.159 billion and profit attributable to the company's owners of about RMB188 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025, down about 8.3% and 44.1% respectively from the same period last year [4]. Trade - related News - US President Trump announced that India may face a 20% - 25% tariff if a trade agreement cannot be reached [2].

Company Recommendations - Chow Tai Fook (1929) is recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 15.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.8%. The catalysts for this recommendation include the historical high gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products, which is expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in same-store sales and revenue [10][13] - Pop Mart (9992) is also recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 300.00, representing a potential upside of 16.3%. The catalysts include the sustained popularity of key IPs like the Monsters series and the new IP CRYBABY, with expectations of an earnings surprise announcement in mid-July [14][16] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 24,700 points, with recent trade talks between China and the U.S. leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs. However, the lack of progress in trade negotiations and limited corporate profit improvements are contributing to a slowdown in capital inflow [3][7] - The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index recently surpassing 24,000 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [7] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming sector is expected to perform well, with June's gaming revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the summer peak season approaching [8] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3,500 points and a continued trend of A+H share listings [8] Technical Analysis - Chow Tai Fook's stock price recently reached a 52-week high, supported by strong trading volume and a positive technical outlook, indicating potential for further gains [11][12] - Pop Mart's stock is currently supported at the 20-day moving average, with a favorable technical setup suggesting the possibility of new highs if it maintains above this level [15][18] Industry Growth - The traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028, with Chow Tai Fook holding a significant market share of 20% [13] - Pop Mart's sales growth in Q1 2025 is reported to be significantly higher than management's initial guidance, indicating strong demand for its IP products across both domestic and international markets [18]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for China Mobile (941.HK) with a target valuation of HKD 98 per share [5]. Core Insights - China Mobile is a leading global telecommunications and information service provider, with core businesses in mobile communication, home broadband, enterprise digital services, and emerging markets such as AI and cloud computing [5]. - The company has a strong economic scale effect, boasting 1 billion mobile users, which results in lower operating costs per user compared to competitors [5]. - Financial performance for the first quarter shows revenue of RMB 263.8 billion and net profit of RMB 30.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [5]. - The report anticipates an increase in the dividend payout ratio to 80%, with future dividends expected to grow at 2% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Mobile operates in four main areas: mobile communication, home broadband, enterprise digital services, and emerging markets [5]. Financial Performance - The first quarter revenue was RMB 263.8 billion, with a net profit of RMB 30.6 billion, resulting in a profit margin of 11.6% and a return on equity (ROE) close to 10% [5]. Valuation - Using a dividend discount model, the estimated valuation is HKD 98 per share, indicating an upside potential of 11.3% from the current price of HKD 88.05 [5][7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the company's stable growth in personal mobile communication and home broadband, along with rapid growth in enterprise digital services, supports the recommendation to buy at the current price [6].