Hello,大家好 今天我們來聊一個 九月魔咒的話題 所謂九月魔咒 就是說從歷史上看 從1928年以來的數據顯示 美股市場平均回報 最低的月份是九月份 它的平均回報率 是 -1.2% 並且這不僅僅 是美股特有的現象 全球股市包括 香港、英國和加拿大 都存在同樣的現象 為什麼會這樣呢 我想這主要有三個原因 第一個原因就是說 華爾街這些大機構 通常在每年的六月到八月 是他們的休假期 九月回到辦公室 幾乎所有大機構大投行 他們都在九月份 集中的進行 投資組合的調整 另外因為歷史統計上看 九月下跌的概率比較大 所以大家都希望 在這一個月迴避下跌 大家都在集中一個時間 來調整來賣出股票 就反而促成了 九月模式的自我實現 那麼另外一個原因 就是很多基金公司 他們每年財務年度 是在九月份結束 所有在九月 結束財務年度的基金 都希望在九月之前 把一些 表現不好的股票賣掉 調整自己的持倉 來讓自己的年度財報 看上去比較漂亮一些 這也是一個原因 就是大家集中的 在這樣的一個時間 進行調整 另外一個呢 美國政府的財務年度 是在九月份結束 那麼九月份也是 美聯儲一年一度 最重要的會議的一個節點 九月份的聯儲會議 決定了今年接下去 會 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices surged over 1%, breaking the historical high of $3500, reaching a peak of $3539.88 and closing at $3533.40, with further increases observed in the European market, hitting $3546.99 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.55% to 45295.81 points, the S&P 500 down 0.69% to 6415.54 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.82% to 21279.63 points [2] - Historically, September is known to be a poor month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a decline of 4.2% over the past five years and over 2% in the past decade [12] Group 3: U.S. Manufacturing Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector remains weak, with the ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July, indicating a sixth consecutive month of contraction [3] - Manufacturing accounts for approximately 10.2% of the U.S. economy, and its weakness directly impacts employment, investment, and consumption [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 are nearly 92% according to CME's FedWatch tool [5] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%, which is seen as a critical psychological barrier for the market [6] Group 5: U.S. Treasury and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. Treasury market is viewed as a "danger zone," with rising yields amid concerns over fiscal policy and potential legal challenges to tariffs imposed by former President Trump [5][8] - Trump's appeal to the Supreme Court regarding tariffs could exacerbate the already strained fiscal situation in the U.S. [8] Group 6: Labor Market Data - Investors are focused on the upcoming JOLTs job openings data, with expectations of 7.378 million openings for July, down from 7.437 million in June [11][12] - The JOLTs report is a key labor market indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [12]

Group 1 - Investor confidence in small-cap stocks is increasing, providing crucial support for the U.S. stock market before typically weak months [1] - Over 64% of Russell 3000 index constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average, the highest level since December of the previous year [1] - The broadening market rally alleviates concerns that poor performance of individual stocks could severely impact the overall market [1] Group 2 - Since the low in April, a strong rebound has been primarily driven by tech giants, indicating a positive signal for bullish investors [3] - Approximately 67% of S&P 500 stocks are currently above their 50-day moving average, and about 68% are above their 200-day moving average, a significant increase from July [3] - The market breadth is expanding, particularly in large sectors such as information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary [3] Group 3 - Historically, September is the only month where the probability of the S&P 500 index declining exceeds that of it rising, with an average decline of 0.7% over the past 75 years [4] - Despite significant improvements in overall market performance, there is still room for further enhancement [7] - The S&P 500 index has risen 30% since the low on April 8, while its equal-weighted index has increased by 23% during the same period [7]

Group 1 - The historical trend of negative returns in September for the US stock market is emphasized, with data from Carson Research supporting the notion that September's performance is worse than that of May and June [1][3] - The current market is experiencing a divergence between continuous highs and volume-price discrepancies, indicating a challenging environment for breaking historical patterns [3] - Key economic indicators are set to be released this week, including the ISM Manufacturing Index, job openings, ISM Services Index, and the crucial non-farm payroll data, which will significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [3] Group 2 - The upcoming speech by former President Trump is anticipated to impact market sentiment, with current market conditions showing limited volatility ahead of the address [3] - The contrasting movements of the dollar and gold prices suggest that the market is pricing in potential risks, warranting close attention to the developments following the speech [3]

Market Trends & Insights - The cryptocurrency market is considered a high-risk investment [1] - September is often referred to as a "September curse" in the crypto market, but this year might be different [1] - There's optimism surrounding the development of AI and blockchain technologies [1] - Uncertainty exists regarding tariffs and interest rates [1] - A rate cut is expected in September [1] Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Developments - Trump's DeFi token WLFI is officially launching tomorrow [1] - The US government is putting data on the blockchain [1] - Solana is undergoing a rapid upgrade [1] - Trump's media is partnering with CRO for strategic reserves [1] - The Prime Minister of Japan sees blockchain as a great industrial revolution [1] - There's discussion around a New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) stablecoin [1] Exchange & Trading Platforms - Correction: Taiwan stock market opens at 9:00 AM, not 9:30 AM [1] - Bitopro offers a 20% fee reduction for NTD purchases of cryptocurrency via their APP [1] - Max exchange is another option for buying cryptocurrency with NTD [1] - OKX offers the strongest wallet functionality and a 20% fee reduction [1] - Binance has the most global users and offers a 20% fee reduction [1] - Pionex is the originator of crypto grid trading and offers a 20% spot fee reduction [1] - Bitget offers many airdrop benefits and a 20% spot fee reduction [1]