Group 1 - The recent overseas economy can be understood as a combination of "fiscal expansion dividends" and "de-globalization costs," leading to a relatively mild global economic "slowdown zone" in the short term, with limited risks of rapid changes in growth trends [1][6][30] - The optimal strategy for the Chinese economy is to focus on internal growth dynamics to enhance risk resistance, with broad-based growth characteristics improving macroeconomic stability and asset price stability [2][8][37] - The effectiveness of domestic policies initiated in the last quarter of the previous year peaked in the first half of this year, with signs of economic slowdown emerging by the end of the second quarter [3][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure construction rates are a key variable to observe, with recent performance in materials like asphalt and cement indicating weaker financing compared to narrow infrastructure growth, suggesting a need for local government investment to accelerate [4][11][12] - The necessity to optimize supply has significantly increased due to slowing exports, with "anti-involution" policies expected to improve supply-demand ratios in key industries [5][13][14] - The framework suggests that during periods of actual growth in the "slowdown zone," it is advisable to reduce configurations based on win rates and increase those based on odds, focusing on high dividend, low volatility sectors [6][15][16] Group 3 - The supply-demand ratio is crucial for determining whether the fundamentals can improve, with recent years showing a trend of imbalance leading to lower price centers and higher real interest rates [7][16][17] - Improving the supply-demand ratio requires achieving rebalancing across three sectors: local government investment normalization, rationalization of incremental investments through anti-involution, and stabilizing household balance sheets [8][18][56] - The global competition hinges on who can provide growth certainty, with the U.S. focusing on permanent tariffs and tax cuts, while China leverages its strong supply chain and large market space [9][19][20] Group 4 - The mid-term impact on major asset classes includes the regionalization of global supply chains and the weakening of U.S. dollar credit, affecting commodities, gold, and alternative assets [21][22] - The framework may overlook risks such as uncertainties in external trade relations and geopolitical issues, which could complicate the impact on major asset classes [22][22]