炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 一瑜中的 ①【大势研判·张瑜】关税、美元与中国复苏验证 各位投资朋友新年好。新年第一期旬度，我主要聚焦四大议题：第一是大国关系，第二是全球关税，第 三是美元指数的强弱逻辑，第四是中国经济复苏的验证三部曲，以及我们对当前结构性景气的看法。 一、大国关系：上半年有望维持低水平稳定 当前，4月美方访华仍是中美日程中确定性较高的事项，相关安排正按正常节奏推进，双方表态均较为 积极，这意味着短期中美关系的下限有明确保障。从历史经验来看，大国元首会晤前后，双边关系可大 致维持3-6个月的低水平稳定状态，所以我们也认为，今年上半年中美关系大概率将维持低水平稳定的 格局。 二、全球关税：关税差收窄利好中国出口相对优势 近期美国对等关税被美国最高法院宣布违宪，相关政策大概率将取消；与此同时特朗普提出拟对全球普 遍加征15%关税，但美国国会、白宫发布的官方通告中仍标注为10%，后续具体方案仍待进一步确认。 整体来看，若按普提10%关税的情景测算，美国对华关税相对其对全球其他经济体的关税差值将有所收 窄，中国将明确受益。从2025年全年实际关税税率来看，美国 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 上周最高法院裁定所谓"解放日"对等关税越权违法后，美国总统特朗普最初设定的全球商品加税10%已 于本周二（24日）生效，为期150天。美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔次日还称，白宫将"在适当情况下"继 续上调关税至15%。 美国关税政策剧烈摇摆，令东南亚出口商普遍陷入观望与被动调整，地区贸易前景被不确定性笼罩。 《日经亚洲》27日报道指出，特朗普政府用短期关税替代被法院否决的"对等关税"，再度加剧全球贸易 波动，东南亚企业至今仍无法确定是否、以及如何调整供应链、定价策略与出货计划。 当地企业普遍反映，当前正身处贸易政策"灰色地带"，无论是与美国采购商的合作，还是美最高法院裁 决对竞争对手，尤其是中国的影响，都难以预判，"几乎一切都偏离了计划"。 报道援引悉尼智库洛伊研究所首席经济学家罗兰·拉贾（Roland Rajah）的观点称，美最高法院的裁决， 让中国成为了所谓"最大的直接受益者之一"，进一步复杂化了东南亚国家的竞争环境。 拉贾声称，东南亚地区正处于一个利益悖论中：该地区本有望从中国的贸易转移与供应链外迁中获益， 但那些已与美国签署双边贸易协定国家，如柬埔寨、马来西亚、印度尼西亚等国， ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月26日 2026年02月27日 策略月报 一页纸精读行业比较数据：2 月 投资链：2 月以来有色价格全面上升。25 年 12 月固定资产投资累计同比增 速下降至-3.80%，房地产开发投资累计同比降幅下降至-17.20%，制造业固 定资产投资累计同比增速下降至 0.60%，基础设施建设投资累计同比增速下 降至-1.48%。26 年 2 月以来铜、铝、锌、铅、锡、镍、黄金、白银价格上升； 26 年 2 月动力煤价格持平于 685 元/吨，焦煤价格持平；26 年 2 月普通水泥 平均价格下降；26 年 2 月以来钢材价格下降；26 年 2 月以来轻质纯碱价格 下降；26 年 1 月大型、轻型客车销量当月同比增速下降，中型客车当月同比 增速上升。 消费链：1 月汽车销量同比增速小幅回升。2025 年 12 月社消额当月名义同 比增速回落至 0.90%，累计名义同比增速回落 3.70%；25 年 12 月消费者信心 指数下降至 89.50；2025 年 12 月商品房销售面积累计同比增速降幅扩大， 增速下降至-9.53%；2026 年 1 月汽车销量当月同比增速上升至-3.18%；2 ...

文︱陆弃 特朗普对美元政策的矛盾态度，是对这种结构性问题的直接回应。在公众面前，他强调强势美元，但在 行动上，弱势美元带来的出口优势与股市上涨，让他暗自欣喜。财政部长贝森特的解释带着金融圈的惯 用逻辑：所谓强势美元，是基于"正确基本面"的稳定流入，而美元长期疲软，虽有利于美国企业竞争 力，却存在削弱美元全球信用的风险。贝森特曾是对冲基金经理，他深知美元若陷入持续贬值螺旋，其 国际地位难保，美国的融资特权可能随之消解。 对欧洲尤其是德国而言，美元贬值带来的压力直接而显著。德国经济高度依赖出口，近一半GDP来自海 外市场。美元疲软意味着欧元相对走强，德国商品在国际市场上的价格竞争力下降，美国出口商则顺势 受益。过去，欧洲可能还可以通过内部调节应对，但美元的波动不仅受经济基本面影响，还被美国的政 治博弈、贸易摩擦和外交政策所左右。从特朗普对格陵兰岛的威胁，到对全球关税的随意举措，这种政 策的不确定性使得全球投资者和央行不得不重新评估美元的吸引力和储备需求。 这种不确定性同样体现在美联储政策上。特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔的对抗，表面是利率的节奏之争， 实则是对财政压力的直接反映。降息可以减轻美元债务负担，同时刺激经济， ...

泰国商业联合会主席塔纳瓦表示，由于消费者仍在等待泰国政治局势的明 朗化，因此他们在第一季度会保持谨慎的消费态度。这包括对政府如何振兴经 济及维持稳定的预期。 （原标题：泰消费者信心预计在二月和三月有所回升） 据曼谷邮报2月13日报道，根据泰国商业商会大学(UTCC)经济与商业预测 中心的说法，由于政府稳定成立、各项切实可行的经济政策得以实施，再加上 内阁成员得到广泛认可，预计2月和3月的消费者信心将会提升。 UTCC的一项调查显示，1月份消费者信心指数从上个月的51.9上升至 52.8。这一上升主要得益于出口的增加以及人们对新政府的乐观预期。 人们还担心选举结束后以及新政府成立期间可能出现的政治不稳定局势。 此外，泰国商业银行指出，泰铢走强可能会削弱出口行业的竞争力。 塔纳瓦先生表示，该大学预计在政府组建期间的第一季度，泰国GDP的同 比增长率为0.8%至1.2%，同时维持全年1.6%的增长率预期。 如果贸易紧张局势升级、地缘政治冲突恶化，或者新政府实施刺激措施， UTCC可能会调整其预测。 调查显示，尽管存在不确定性，消费者仍希望新政府能推出并实施有效的 经济刺激措施。联合政府的稳定性、切实的经济刺激措施以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, indicating potential for valuation recovery and growth opportunities [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in corrugated box prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new ventures in overseas markets, smart lighting, and renewable energy are opening growth avenues [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks such as Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support home furnishing demand, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The ongoing consolidation in the industry is pushing mid-tier companies out, while capital from industrial players is entering leading home furnishing firms, enhancing market concentration [5][6]. Paper Industry - Short-term price stability in corrugated boxes is observed, with a potential mid-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics expected to boost profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chains and cost advantages in companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][9]. - The report suggests that the paper industry is nearing a bottom, with cost structures supporting price stability and potential for upward movement in demand [7][9]. Bull Group - The company is expected to benefit from improving real estate conditions and consumer sentiment, with traditional business lines poised for recovery. New business areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy are anticipated to contribute to growth [11][12]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care companies that are expected to show growth potential. Companies like Baiya and Dengkang Dental are noted for their promising performance in 2026 [14][15]. Packaging Industry - The report discusses the performance of overseas packaging companies, with Ball Corporation and Amcor showing strong results. Ball's revenue for FY25 reached $13.2 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, while Amcor's revenue for FY26H1 was $11.2 billion, a 70% increase [15][16].

Economic Growth Forecast - Thailand's economy is projected to grow by 2.0% this year, consistent with previous expectations [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024 [1] Export Performance - Exports are anticipated to increase by 1.0% this year, a revision from an earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline [1] Currency and Inflation - The Thai Baht has appreciated approximately 1.4% against the US dollar this year, with a projected increase of 9% by 2025, impacting export and tourism competitiveness [1] - Overall inflation rate for this year is forecasted at 0.3%, revised down from 0.5% [1] Tourism Outlook - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand is expected to reach 35.5 million this year, consistent with prior estimates, compared to 32.9 million last year [1] Trade Tariffs - The US imposes a 19% tariff on goods imported from Thailand, aligning with practices in other regional countries, but uncertainties remain regarding tariffs on goods transiting through Thailand from third countries [2]

（原标题：斯里兰卡国家出口商协会与出口发展局讨论出口目标和行业挑战） 斯里兰卡《每日金融时报》2月5日报道，斯国家出口商协会召开2026年第一次理事会会议，重点讨 论了优先事项、行业关注的问题，包括劳动力短缺、市场准入、灾后挑战以及与出口发展局（EDB）的 合作。 斯出口行业在2025年保持积极增长势头，取得5.6 %的显著增长，总收入达到172.5亿美元。EDB主 席Mangala Wijesinghe表示，EDB与亚洲开发银行合作，完成了《2025-2029年国家出口发展计划》。该 计划旨在实现三个核心目标：增强斯贸易竞争力，扩大进入全球和区域市场的范围，以及促进可持续的 贸易净增长。他还提到在市场和产品拓展方面的努力、数字化和国家单一窗口的进展，以及即将举办的 斯里兰卡博览会计划。该博览会在沉寂十余年后即将举行。他表示，这次博览会有望促进出口，扩大出 口商群体，并为现有出口商提供支持。他希望今年能举办更多活动。从出口总额来看，中小企业部门的 贡献在7%- 8%以下。为了达到25%的全球标准，必须增加出口商的数量。 ...

德国《商报》1月28日报道，德国批发、外贸和服务业联合会(BGA)指出，欧元升值导致德国出口产品 在国际市场上价格竞争力下降，尤其对利润空间有限的中型企业造成显著压力。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview AI Glasses Market - The AI glasses market is expected to experience explosive growth, with projected sales reaching 5.5 million units by 2025 and 90 million units by 2030, driven by the development of cloud-based large models and hardware demand [1][2][4] - AI glasses are positioned as ideal carriers for observing AI applications due to their proximity to critical sensory organs [4] - The integration of AI and AR technologies is anticipated to create new smart devices that seamlessly blend virtual and real-world experiences [5] Two-Piece Can Industry - The demand for two-piece cans is influenced by beer and soft drink production, with beer accounting for approximately 60% of the market [3][6] - China's beer canning rate has increased from 21% in 2016 to nearly 30% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential compared to the US (70%) and Japan (90%) [1][3] - The industry faces cyclical fluctuations and price competition due to capacity expansion, but consolidation trends are emerging, as seen with Orijin's acquisition of COFCO Packaging [1][6][9] - The profitability of two-piece can companies is higher in overseas markets compared to domestic markets, prompting companies to establish production bases abroad [9] Export Chain Enterprises - The easing of US-China trade relations and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to benefit export enterprises, with improved orders anticipated [2][13] - Trade policy uncertainties remain a risk for export chain companies [22] Guzi Economy - The Guzi economy, which includes manga, animation, and gaming, has shown robust growth, with market size increasing from 53.7 billion yuan in 2017 to 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of nearly 18% [2][14][15] - The expansion of the two-dimensional user base and the willingness of younger consumers to pay for emotional value are key drivers of this growth [15] - The domestic IP market is witnessing increased transaction volumes, indicating a growing acceptance of local IP among consumers [16][17] Core Insights and Arguments AI Glasses - The growth of AI glasses is closely linked to advancements in cloud technology and the need for hardware to support AI applications [2][4] - The market for AR glasses, while growing, has not yet achieved significant breakthroughs due to product, price, and application limitations [3][5] Two-Piece Can Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The industry is experiencing a shift towards higher canning rates, which is expected to drive demand despite challenges from declining beer production [6][10] - The cyclical nature of the industry has led to periods of overcapacity and subsequent price declines, but consolidation efforts are likely to improve the competitive landscape [6][21] Guzi Economy Development - The Guzi economy's growth is supported by a diverse consumer base and effective marketing strategies that leverage social media and online platforms [15][19] - Challenges remain in aligning the production cycles of derivative products with the popularity of the original IP content [18] Additional Important Insights - The call for "anti-involution" is gaining traction across various industries, including packaging, which may lead to a stabilization of production capacity in the two-piece can sector [8] - The impact of aluminum prices on the profitability of the two-piece can industry is significant, with fluctuations affecting margins directly [12] - The potential for further integration and consolidation in the two-piece can industry suggests substantial investment opportunities as market dynamics evolve [7]