Economic Performance - In January-February 2026, exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than December 2025's 6.6% and the annual value of 5.5%[2] - Industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year, surpassing December 2025's 5.2% and the annual value of 5.9%[2] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to December 2025's -16% and the annual value of -3.8%[3] Sectoral Insights - High-tech industry added value increased by 13.1% year-on-year, up from 9.4% in the previous year[4] - Cement production turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, compared to -6.9% last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year-on-year, but were lower than the annual growth of 3.7%[5] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, an improvement from December 2025's -15.5%[7] - Real estate investment fell by 11.1% year-on-year, better than the previous year's -17.2%[9] - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.4% year-on-year, contrasting with last year's -1.5%[7] Employment and Consumer Behavior - Urban unemployment rate in February 2026 was 5.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year[9] - Consumer retail growth excluding automobiles and fuel was 4.7%, higher than last year's 3.7%[5] - Notable retail growth in categories such as tobacco and alcohol (19.1%) and communication equipment (17.8%)[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper sector, anticipating performance improvements in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an acceleration in industry consolidation, with leading companies demonstrating resilience and a wait for demand recovery in 2026 [2][3]. - It predicts that the paper prices will continue to rise due to cost-driven factors, increased demand, and alleviated supply pressures, leading to improved profitability in Q4 2025 [4]. - The packaging and printing sector is expected to see a rise in profitability for leading companies, while some may experience declines due to optimization and potential impairments [4][9]. - The export sector shows a mixed performance, with companies having global supply chain advantages expected to maintain steady growth [4][12]. - The home furnishing sector is under pressure from policy changes, with soft furniture performing better than custom furniture [4][14]. - The light consumer goods sector is facing overall demand pressure, but individual companies are showing structural highlights [4][16]. Summary by Sections Paper Industry - The report forecasts improved profitability for companies like Sun Paper and BoHui Paper in Q4 2025, with expected net profits of 7.58 billion and 1.11 billion respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [6][8]. - Companies like ShanYing International are expected to incur losses, with a projected net profit of -6.50 billion [8]. Packaging and Printing - YuTong Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.23 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [9][10]. - Companies like HeXing Packaging are projected to face losses, with a net profit of -0.25 billion [10]. Export Sector - Co-Creation Turf is expected to see a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year, reaching 8.59 billion, with a net profit of 1.64 billion [12][13]. - Companies like JiaYi Co. are projected to experience a decline in profits, with a net profit of 1.43 billion, down 29% year-on-year [12][13]. Home Furnishing - Companies like Gujia Home are expected to see a revenue of 48.62 billion in Q4 2025, with a net profit of 3.18 billion, reflecting a significant increase [14][15]. - Companies like Oppein Home are projected to face a 20% decline in net profit, estimated at 4.55 billion [15][17]. Light Consumer Goods - Companies like Guangbo are expected to achieve a net profit of 0.52 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [16][19]. - Companies like Bull Group are projected to see a decline in net profit, estimated at 9.58 billion, down 5% year-on-year [19][20].

Group 1: Major Power Relations - The upcoming visit of the US to China in April is a highly certain event, indicating a likely low-level stability in Sino-US relations for the first half of the year [2][24] - Historical experience suggests that bilateral relations can maintain a low-level stable state for about 3-6 months following a meeting between major leaders [2][24] Group 2: Global Tariffs - The recent ruling by the US Supreme Court declaring reciprocal tariffs unconstitutional is expected to lead to their cancellation, benefiting China's export relative advantage [3][25] - If the proposed 10% tariff is implemented, the tariff differential between the US and China will narrow, reducing China's relative tariff disadvantage by 6.5 percentage points [3][26] - Industries most likely to benefit from the tariff changes include semiconductors, electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [4][26] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The strength of the US dollar can be analyzed through short-term interest rate differentials and long-term debt issues, with current market conditions being chaotic [5][27] - Two scenarios are presented: one where economic growth leads to inflation and delays in interest rate cuts, and another where AI-driven growth allows for rate cuts without inflation [5][28] - The core variable influencing the long-term strength of the dollar is the successful implementation of AI technology and improvements in supply [6][29] Group 4: China's Economic Recovery - The economic recovery in China will be validated through three stages, with the first stage showing positive signals from January CPI and PPI data [7][31] - The second stage involves analyzing January financial data, which shows positive trends but requires further validation from February data [10][33] - The third stage will assess combined economic data from January and February, focusing on supply-demand gaps and consumer behavior during the Spring Festival [12][36] Group 5: Structural Economic Trends - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of economic growth for the year, supported by favorable tariff policies and stable Sino-US relations [13][38] - The economic structure is showing a divergence, with new economy sectors like exports and midstream manufacturing performing well, while traditional sectors like real estate remain weak [21][46] - Current economic dynamics suggest that the combination of strong export and travel data may be sufficient to support a weak recovery, with potential for improvement in traditional sectors [21][46]

Group 1: Major Country Relations - The US-China relationship is expected to maintain a low-level stable state in the first half of the year, with a high likelihood of positive developments following the scheduled visit of US officials to China in April [5] Group 2: Global Tariffs - The recent ruling by the US Supreme Court declaring certain tariffs unconstitutional is likely to lead to the cancellation of those tariffs, which will benefit China's export relative advantage [6] - If the proposed 10% tariffs are implemented, the tariff differential between the US and China will decrease, benefiting Chinese exports significantly [7] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The strength of the US dollar is influenced by short-term interest rate differentials and long-term debt issues, creating a complex market environment [8] - Two scenarios are analyzed regarding the US economy's performance and its impact on the dollar: one where demand drives growth leading to inflation and another where AI-driven supply improvements occur without inflation [9] Group 4: China's Economic Recovery Validation - The economic recovery in China will be validated through three key indicators, with the first indicator being the January CPI and PPI data, which showed positive signals [11] - The second indicator involves January financial data, which, while showing improvement, still requires further validation from February data [14] - The third indicator will be the combined economic data from January and February, which will determine the sustainability of the recovery [16] Group 5: Structural Economic Trends - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of economic growth for the year, supported by favorable tariff policies and stable US-China relations [19] - The economic landscape is characterized by a divergence between new economic sectors, such as exports and midstream manufacturing, which are performing well, and traditional sectors, which are lagging [26]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling against the so-called "equivalent tariffs" has led to the implementation of a 10% global tariff on goods, which may increase to 15% in the future, creating uncertainty for Southeast Asian exporters and complicating their trade strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Southeast Asian Exporters - Southeast Asian exporters are in a state of uncertainty, struggling to adjust their supply chains, pricing strategies, and shipping plans due to the fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. - The ruling has made China one of the "biggest direct beneficiaries," complicating the competitive landscape for Southeast Asian countries [1][2]. - Countries like Cambodia, Malaysia, and Indonesia, which have bilateral trade agreements with the U.S., are facing significant uncertainty regarding their trade arrangements [2]. Group 2: Business Strategies and Adjustments - Many businesses in Indonesia are adopting a strategy of "risk reduction while maintaining exports," with selective early shipments rather than a rush to export [5]. - The Indonesian Employers Association has noted that the current legal environment is unstable, making it difficult for companies to formulate stable business plans [4]. - Companies in Malaysia are also adjusting their strategies, with some choosing to ship products early to avoid inventory buildup, while others are reassessing their contracts and risk exposures [5][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Future Scenarios - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is expected to remain a dominant theme in the region, with potential scenarios including a return to previous tariff levels or the establishment of a permanent 15% rate [2]. - Vietnam is seen as a potential beneficiary of supply chain shifts, although it has not finalized a trade agreement with the U.S., leaving its tariff situation uncertain [6]. - The Asian Development Bank has indicated that the new tariffs could have macroeconomic impacts on Cambodia, potentially trapping it in a passive position due to global trade policy fluctuations [7].

Investment Chain - The prices of non-ferrous metals have risen significantly since February 2026, with copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, gold, and silver all experiencing price increases. However, fixed asset investment growth has declined, with real estate development investment down by 17.20% year-on-year and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at only 0.60% [10][11] - In February 2026, the average price of ordinary cement decreased, while the prices of steel and light soda ash also fell. The sales growth of large and light buses declined, but the sales growth of medium-sized buses increased [10][11] Consumption Chain - In January 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales showed a slight recovery, increasing to -3.18%. However, the consumer confidence index fell to 89.50 in December 2025, and retail sales growth for home appliances decreased by 14.25% [11][12] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 saw a nominal year-on-year growth rate drop to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70% [11][12] - Tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year in December 2024, while tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% in March 2024 [11][12] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN countries increased, while exports to the US and EU saw a decline. The export growth rate for electronic products rose to 37.25%, while textile exports fell by 4.23% [12][13] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for exports of refined oil, coke, steel, and aluminum increased, while the export amounts for agricultural products, toys, furniture, and other categories decreased [12][13] - The OECD leading indicator for the US rose to 100.50 in January 2026, indicating potential economic improvement [12][13] Price Chain - In February 2026, pork prices decreased to 12.75 yuan per kilogram, while oil prices increased, with WTI rising to 65.63 USD per barrel [13][14] - The price of PVC rose to 4770 yuan per ton, while the price of MDI fell to 13950 yuan per ton [13][14] - The price of cotton increased, and the price of white sugar decreased during the same period [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the US dollar reflects deeper structural issues within the US fiscal system, with a significant annual deficit and the implications of a weaker dollar on global economic dynamics [3][9]. Group 1: US Dollar Depreciation - Since Trump's presidency, the dollar has depreciated over 10% against a basket of major currencies, with a more pronounced decline this year [1][3]. - The US Treasury faces a fiscal gap of $1.8 trillion this year, leading to increased reliance on foreign investors and central banks for funding through debt issuance [3][9]. Group 2: Impact on Global Economy - The depreciation of the dollar directly pressures economies like Germany, which relies heavily on exports, as a stronger euro diminishes the price competitiveness of German goods [4][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding US political decisions and trade policies complicates the global investment landscape, prompting a reassessment of the dollar's attractiveness [4][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies - The conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell over interest rates reflects the underlying fiscal pressures, with potential rate cuts aimed at alleviating debt burdens and stimulating the economy [6][9]. - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed chair adds uncertainty to future monetary policy, impacting dollar exchange rates [6][9]. Group 4: Global Capital Flows - Despite political tensions, foreign investors have shown interest in US assets, but recent uncertainties may threaten this enthusiasm, leading to potential capital outflows [7][9]. - The historical context of dollar fluctuations indicates that the US dollar's status impacts global economic stability, with other economies bearing the costs of US fiscal decisions [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The dollar's trajectory will be influenced by multiple factors, including domestic fiscal pressures, trade policy uncertainties, and shifts in global investor confidence [9][10]. - The weak dollar serves as a reminder of the global economic order's dependence on the dollar, highlighting both its advantages and the risks it poses to other economies [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that consumer confidence in Thailand is expected to rise in February and March due to a stable government and effective economic policies [1] - The consumer confidence index increased from 51.9 in December to 52.8 in January, driven by rising exports and optimism towards the new government [1] - Despite the increase in consumer confidence, there remains a cautious attitude among consumers as they await clearer political developments and effective economic stimulus measures from the new government [1] Group 2 - Key concerns for consumers include high living costs, the imbalance between income and expenditure, and the slow recovery of the Thai economy [1] - There are worries about potential political instability following the elections and during the formation of the new government [1] - The Thai Baht's appreciation may weaken the competitiveness of the export sector, which is a significant concern for the economy [1] Group 3 - The UTCC forecasts a GDP growth rate of 0.8% to 1.2% for the first quarter during the government's formation period, maintaining an annual growth rate expectation of 1.6% [1] - The UTCC may adjust its forecasts if trade tensions escalate, geopolitical conflicts worsen, or if the new government implements stimulus measures [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, indicating potential for valuation recovery and growth opportunities [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in corrugated box prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new ventures in overseas markets, smart lighting, and renewable energy are opening growth avenues [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks such as Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support home furnishing demand, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The ongoing consolidation in the industry is pushing mid-tier companies out, while capital from industrial players is entering leading home furnishing firms, enhancing market concentration [5][6]. Paper Industry - Short-term price stability in corrugated boxes is observed, with a potential mid-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics expected to boost profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chains and cost advantages in companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][9]. - The report suggests that the paper industry is nearing a bottom, with cost structures supporting price stability and potential for upward movement in demand [7][9]. Bull Group - The company is expected to benefit from improving real estate conditions and consumer sentiment, with traditional business lines poised for recovery. New business areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy are anticipated to contribute to growth [11][12]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care companies that are expected to show growth potential. Companies like Baiya and Dengkang Dental are noted for their promising performance in 2026 [14][15]. Packaging Industry - The report discusses the performance of overseas packaging companies, with Ball Corporation and Amcor showing strong results. Ball's revenue for FY25 reached $13.2 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, while Amcor's revenue for FY26H1 was $11.2 billion, a 70% increase [15][16].

Economic Growth Forecast - Thailand's economy is projected to grow by 2.0% this year, consistent with previous expectations [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024 [1] Export Performance - Exports are anticipated to increase by 1.0% this year, a revision from an earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline [1] Currency and Inflation - The Thai Baht has appreciated approximately 1.4% against the US dollar this year, with a projected increase of 9% by 2025, impacting export and tourism competitiveness [1] - Overall inflation rate for this year is forecasted at 0.3%, revised down from 0.5% [1] Tourism Outlook - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand is expected to reach 35.5 million this year, consistent with prior estimates, compared to 32.9 million last year [1] Trade Tariffs - The US imposes a 19% tariff on goods imported from Thailand, aligning with practices in other regional countries, but uncertainties remain regarding tariffs on goods transiting through Thailand from third countries [2]