Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stagnation of CPI and PPI in July, highlighting the need for effective investment to stimulate economic growth and address supply-demand imbalances [1][5][6]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - In July, the CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, which was higher than the expected -0.1%, while the PPI remained at -3.6%, lower than the anticipated -3.4% [1][6]. - The simulated deflation index, calculated using PPI and CPI, was -1.44%, slightly lower than the previous two months' -1.38%, marking the lowest since February 2024 [1][6]. - The decline in price levels since the fourth quarter of last year is attributed to insufficient local fixed asset investment affecting the supply-demand ratio [1][6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The PPI's underperformance in July was influenced by high-frequency data discrepancies, particularly in the black metallurgy, automotive, and electrical machinery sectors [2][9]. - Despite rising prices in raw materials for black metal smelting and automotive manufacturing, the final PPI figures showed a decrease of 0.3% in both sectors [2][9]. - Prices for lithium carbonate and polysilicon saw significant increases in July, impacting the photovoltaic industry positively, although the electrical machinery sector still faced a PPI decline of -0.2% [2][10][11]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to August, the PPI decline is expected to narrow to below 3%, with the simulated deflation index likely to bottom out and rise [3][12]. - Initial data for August indicates a neutral trend in industrial prices, with significant increases in domestic coal and coke prices compared to the end of July [3][12]. - The stability of automotive retail and wholesale prices will be crucial to monitor in the coming weeks [3][12]. Group 4: CPI Positive Signals - Positive signals in July were primarily observed in the CPI sector, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4% month-on-month, reaching a year-on-year high of 0.8% [4][13]. - Notable price stability was seen in automotive retail, with both fuel and new energy vehicle prices stabilizing after a prolonged decline [4][13]. - Household appliances showed a significant month-on-month increase of 2.2%, driven by rising raw material costs, indicating a potential positive trend in consumer spending [4][14]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges in achieving a favorable overall price level, necessitating continued policy efforts [5][16]. - Recent government meetings have focused on regulating competition in key industries, including the new energy vehicle sector and the pig farming industry, which may influence future price dynamics [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 1993年以来经历了四轮通胀回落周期，前三轮主要背景依次为亚洲金融危机、全球次贷危机，以及欧债危机余波和国内产能周期叠加。本轮背景（2022- 2024 ） 主 要 是 房 地 产 周 期 下 台 阶 、 地 方 化 债 、 部 分 产 业 供 给 增 长 过 快 等 三 大 因 素 叠 加 。 过 去 三 轮 周 期 的 平 减 指 数 季 度 谷 底 读 数 分 别 为-1.61%、-1.35%、-0.28%，本轮平减指数于2024年一季度短暂触底，但后续走势仍较弱，今年二季度再度触及-1.2%的本轮周期低位。 第二， 为什么会出现这种情况？我们如果以CRB指数、南华综合指数两个指标的同比作为"外部"和"内部"的价格坐标，CRB同比谷底在2023年3月，后续整体震 荡上行，最新的2025年7月数据仍延续新高；南华综合指数同比自2024年三季度出现再度下行，并在2025年5月一度创下本轮新低。若以"GDP平减指数 VS 螺 铜比"（螺纹钢和铜分别代表内外定价因素）来观测，其经验走势吻合度也较高，两 ...

Group 1 - The recent overseas economy can be understood as a combination of "fiscal expansion dividends" and "de-globalization costs," leading to a relatively mild global economic "slowdown zone" in the short term, with limited risks of rapid changes in growth trends [1][6][30] - The optimal strategy for the Chinese economy is to focus on internal growth dynamics to enhance risk resistance, with broad-based growth characteristics improving macroeconomic stability and asset price stability [2][8][37] - The effectiveness of domestic policies initiated in the last quarter of the previous year peaked in the first half of this year, with signs of economic slowdown emerging by the end of the second quarter [3][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure construction rates are a key variable to observe, with recent performance in materials like asphalt and cement indicating weaker financing compared to narrow infrastructure growth, suggesting a need for local government investment to accelerate [4][11][12] - The necessity to optimize supply has significantly increased due to slowing exports, with "anti-involution" policies expected to improve supply-demand ratios in key industries [5][13][14] - The framework suggests that during periods of actual growth in the "slowdown zone," it is advisable to reduce configurations based on win rates and increase those based on odds, focusing on high dividend, low volatility sectors [6][15][16] Group 3 - The supply-demand ratio is crucial for determining whether the fundamentals can improve, with recent years showing a trend of imbalance leading to lower price centers and higher real interest rates [7][16][17] - Improving the supply-demand ratio requires achieving rebalancing across three sectors: local government investment normalization, rationalization of incremental investments through anti-involution, and stabilizing household balance sheets [8][18][56] - The global competition hinges on who can provide growth certainty, with the U.S. focusing on permanent tariffs and tax cuts, while China leverages its strong supply chain and large market space [9][19][20] Group 4 - The mid-term impact on major asset classes includes the regionalization of global supply chains and the weakening of U.S. dollar credit, affecting commodities, gold, and alternative assets [21][22] - The framework may overlook risks such as uncertainties in external trade relations and geopolitical issues, which could complicate the impact on major asset classes [22][22]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 4月六大口径数据（工业、服务业、出口、社零、投资、地产销售）同比均不同程度低于前值，当时 外部关税骤然上升的背景下，经济较3月有所放缓。但同时各指标仍呈现较明显韧性，按工业与服务业、工业 与社零模拟的实际GDP同比分别为5.45%、5.44%，低于3月，和一季度仍大致相当。 第二， 工业增加值同比6.1%。关于工业表现，有几个细节：（1）出口交货值4月同比0.9%，较前值的 7.7%明显下行，关税还是带来了工业端的明显扰动。出口交货值弱于出口，证明企业当期审慎生产，倾向于 消化库存；（2）私营企业工业增加值同比6.7%，相对最高；国有企业、外资企业增速较低，我们理解与本 轮政策红利比如信贷等对民企的倾斜有关，与今年需求端消费、出口相对于投资更活跃亦有一定关系；（3） 产销率同比-0.2%，较前值的-0.1%仅小幅下行，和2018年5-6月同比显著转负对照，企业已有更多经验安 排生产、应对外需变化。 第三， 在去年底报告《引导供需比优化：2025年中观环境展望》中，我们参考投入产出表尝试了一种粗略的 估算方法，即以40%*固定资产投资同 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第13期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-12期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 供需比与中美宏观经济政策。 经济学视角下，"关税"是一种类管制措施。对于出口国来说，它会阻挡一部分本来存在的需求；对于进口国来说，它会阻挡一 部分本来存在的供给。在没有其他因素加入的情形下，"供需比"的跨国均衡被打破，出口国会存在一定程度的产品"过剩"，从而给价格带来下行压力；进口国会存在 一定程度的产品"短缺"，从而给价格带来上行压力。 特朗普政府逆全球化关税之后的中美经济分属这样的组合。逻辑上，中国经济的方向是激励需求、收敛供给；美国经济的方向是激励供给、收敛需求。 从4月25日政治局会议精神来看，国内宏观经济政策第一阶段呈现出较为清晰的激励总需求的主线，包括"大力发展服务消费"、"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特 别国债等发行使用"、"持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"，均牢牢围绕终端需求，和历史上侧重对企业端降税降息支持供给的政策有明显不同。5月7日一揽子金融政策 包括引导降低LPR利率、下调公积金贷款利率、创设服务消费与养老再贷款等，均属于需求端政策方向的细化和落地。 可以预计，下一阶段很可能会有优化供给的政策，包括地产 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025 年 4 月 CPI 同比 -0.1% ，持平前值； PPI 同比 -2.7% ，低于前值的 -2.5% 。按 CPI 和 PPI 权重分别 60% 和 40% 模拟的平减指数为 -1.14% ，低于前值的 -1.06% 。 第二， CPI 环比为 0.1% ，好于 2-3 月的环比负增。上涨的价格线索主要有三：（ 1 ）进口减少影响牛肉 价格， 4 月牛肉价格环比上涨 3.9% ，同比降幅缩窄 5.9 个点；（ 2 ）五一假期居民出行活跃带动假期前 价格， 飞机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游价格环比分别上涨 13.5% 、 7.3% 、 4.5% 和 3.1% ，涨幅均高于季节性水平，合计影响 CPI 环比约 0.10 个百分点；（ 3 ）黄金价格上涨背景下，国内金饰品 价格环比上涨 10.1% ，影响 CPI 环比约 0.06 个百分点。 第三， 价格偏弱的领域包括：（ 1 ）猪肉价格环比继续下行，在过去 7 个月有 6 个月环比负增长；（ 2 ） 交通工具价格环比为 -0.3% ，显示汽车降价依然在延续；（ 3 ）酒 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current economic situation, focusing on the CPI and PPI data for March, indicating a slight improvement in CPI but a continued decline in PPI, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [1][4][5] - In March, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, an improvement from -0.7% in the previous month, while the PPI year-on-year was -2.5%, down from -2.2% [1][4] - The simulated deflation index, based on the weighted contributions of CPI and PPI, is approximately -1.06%, indicating a persistent low price level since October of the previous year [1][4] Group 2 - Energy and food prices are identified as the main contributors to the downward trend in inflation, with core CPI showing zero growth month-on-month in March [1][2] - Pork prices have been in a downward adjustment cycle since late January, and fuel prices for transportation have also decreased significantly [1][6] - Positive signals in CPI include a 2.8% month-on-month increase in household appliance prices, stabilization in the rental market, and seasonal increases in alcohol prices post-holiday [1][6][7] Group 3 - The PPI in March showed a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, with oil and coal prices being the primary downward forces [2][7] - The article notes that the impact of global trade tariffs is expected to continue affecting commodity prices, which will have implications for future CPI and PPI [2][8] - The government has emphasized the importance of price stability, with recent policies aimed at strengthening price governance mechanisms [3][9] Group 4 - Historical experience suggests that in response to external shocks like tariffs, policies typically focus first on stabilizing liquidity before addressing the fundamental economic conditions [10] - The central bank has indicated readiness to provide sufficient re-lending support to stabilize liquidity, which is seen as a "expectation anchor" for the market [10] - Key areas of focus for economic resilience include consumer spending, real estate investment, and maintaining supply-demand balance and profit margins in the corporate sector [10]