1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CD yield has been in a stalemate of "unable to rise and unable to fall", and it is already not easy for it to maintain an oscillating state without significant upward movement. The combination of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, along with central bank's large - scale liquidity injection, has limited the upward range of yields of government bonds, local bonds, and CDs. CDs also face multiple disturbances such as foreign capital reduction and capital activation [4][20]. - The short - term issuance of CDs this year is mainly driven by demand and cost considerations. Demand from money funds for short - term CDs has increased, and banks are more willing to "roll - issue" short - term CDs to reduce comprehensive costs. Next year, the issuance proportion of 9M and 1Y CDs may increase compared to 2025 but still be lower than in 2024 [4][26]. - The year - end pre - emptive market for CDs, which usually reflects the expectation of a decline in the coming year, may be weakened this year. In 2026, the continued expansion of a broad fiscal policy will still put pressure on CDs. Whether CDs can maintain a moderate level depends on the central bank's support. Even if there is a rate cut, it is uncertain whether it can be fully transmitted to CDs [4][37]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This week (11.24 - 11.28) the bond market adjusted - The bond market adjusted this week and slightly recovered on Friday. The main influencing factors include concerns about the small scale of central bank bond purchases in November, the boost to the stock market after the China - US presidential call, repeated concerns and redemption disturbances due to the undecided public - offering fee regulations, and the impact of real - estate bond extensions. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 opened at around 1.812% at the beginning of the week, reached a high of 1.8475% and 1.845% on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and slightly eased on Friday [9]. - The funds remained stable during the cross - month week. After two weeks of fluctuations in November, the funds returned to stability in the last week. DR001 remained between 1.3% - 1.33% for five consecutive days, and there was no significant fluctuation on the cross - month day. The average value of DR001 in November was 1.37%, higher than that in October but lower than in September [9]. - The CD yield fluctuated within a narrow range. The 1Y AAA CD yield fluctuated within 1 bp this week, with a range of 1.635% - 1.645%, and closed at 1.64% on Friday, up 0.5 bps from last Friday. The driving force mainly came from joint - stock banks, possibly because many joint - stock banks' NSFR indicators were under pressure and they issued CDs to adjust the indicators before the end of the year [10]. 3.2 Hot issues discussion on CDs 3.2.1 CDs are in a stalemate of "unable to rise and unable to fall", and it is already not easy for them not to rise - Since August, the CD yield has been characterized by low - volatility oscillation. After the central bank announced the resumption of bond purchases near the end of October, it only brought a short - term market to CDs, and then it entered a new platform oscillation. In the context of large - scale supply of government bonds, the combination of fiscal and monetary policies and central bank's liquidity injection have limited the upward range of CD yields. CDs also face disturbances such as foreign capital reduction and capital activation [19][20]. - Twice this year, the 1Y AAA CD yield exceeded or approached 1.7%. Each time, the central bank provided obvious support. After the MLF American - style tender reform, the 1Y CD may become the pricing reference for MLF, and the decline in MLF winning bid rate may be a follow - up adjustment driven by CDs [21]. 3.2.2 The short - term issuance of CDs this year may be mainly driven by demand and cost considerations - In terms of demand, since the implementation of interest - rate pricing self - discipline for inter - bank deposits at the end of November 2024, money funds have shifted their demand from inter - bank deposits to inter - bank CDs. To reduce the risk of negative deviation under the shadow pricing method, money funds have shortened the duration of CD holdings and increased the demand for short - and medium - term CDs [29]. - From the cost perspective, in the first quarter of this year, banks issued a large number of short - term CDs to withstand the high - cost period. Since the second quarter, the liquidity environment has become more friendly, and banks are more willing to "roll - issue" short - term CDs to reduce comprehensive costs. Next year, the issuance of CDs may return to normal, but the issuance proportion of 9M and 1Y CDs may still be lower than in 2024 [33]. 3.2.3 The year - end pre - emptive market for CDs, which usually reflects the expectation of a decline in the coming year, may be weakened this year - In the bond market, factors such as the undecided public - offering bond fund redemption fee, the weakening expectation of further rate cuts, the low attractiveness of the bond market in terms of stock - bond ratio, and the market's greater sensitivity to negative factors have weakened the pre - emptive market [37]. - For CDs, in 2026, the continued expansion of a broad fiscal policy will still put pressure on CDs. Whether CDs can maintain a moderate level depends on the central bank's support. Even if there is a rate cut, it is uncertain whether it can be fully transmitted to CDs. The year - end pre - emptive market for CDs may be weakened, and the benchmark assumption is that it will remain oscillating above 1.6%. Further decline may require unexpected factors. Attention should be paid to the December Politburo meeting and the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference [38].